Monday February 6 2023 Forecast (7:19AM)

94 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 6-10)

A mild and active pattern will be with us for the next several days, though despite the number of disturbances to pass by, none of them will have much impact. There will be a fair amount of clouds in the sky today. These clouds are on the western side of a strong storm system that is located well off the coast. Its only impact on our region will be a little bit of rain this morning over portions of Cape Cod and the Islands before it’s moving further away. Other cloudiness will drift in from the west as part of an older, dissipating disturbance. A narrow area of high pressure will build in for Tuesday with fair and nice weather, but later in the day and at night a frontal system will cross the region, bringing mainly rain showers due to the mild air, but the temperature will be marginal enough so that some sleet and snow may occur in portions of central to northeastern MA and adjacent southern NH. That’s offshore by early Wednesday and we have a fair and mild day that day as another area of high pressure moves in. This day will be the pick of the work week. Low pressure heading through the eastern Great Lakes and destined to pass to our north will drag its warm front across our region on Thursday, bringing clouds and an area of rain back into the region. It may be cold enough at the outset of the precipitation for it to begin as sleet and snow across southern NH and interior northeastern to north central MA, but not expecting much of a problem from this. The milder air overtakes the region again on Friday as the system’s weak cold front moves in, probably not with much precipitation but probably without a lot of clearing. In fact a wave of low pressure may bring back wet weather later Friday, depending on timing.

TODAY: Clouds dominate / sun limited. Early to mid morning rain at times Cape Cod / Islands. Highs 42-49. Wind variable up to 10 MPH early, then N increasing to 10-20 MPH, some higher gusts especially coastal locations.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 19-26. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind W-SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely evening, except some sleet/snow mixed in well north and west of Boston. Lows 28-35. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

WEDNESDAY: Lots of sun, few clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain midday and afternoon that may begin as snow or sleet well north and west of Boston. Highs 43-50 occurring late in the day. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of rain in the evening, drizzle and patchy fog overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Late-day rain possible Highs 45-52. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 11-15)

Unsettled weekend with a slow moving frontal system and a wave or two of low pressure to move through, with a trend to colder we’ll see rain potential change to frozen precipitation at least for parts of the region before ending. Watching for another unsettled weather system toward the end of the period but timing uncertain.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 16-20)

One or two low pressure systems may impact the region with precipitation threats as we’ll be in an active pattern at mid month.

94 thoughts on “Monday February 6 2023 Forecast (7:19AM)”

  6. Thank you, TK.

    Regardless of what the weather will bring, THE most important thing is our health. TK, I am wishing you, your brother, and your family the best.

  7. I’m working with two Turkish colleagues on a long-term project. They’re both in the U.S., but one has family in the impacted area from the earthquake. They believe many thousands have died. The official toll is already at 1,900. Earthquakes are such horrible natural disasters.

  8. Thank you, TK.

    My prayers are with your brother and with you and your family and David’s medical team with hope that you have some answers today.

  9. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Still not impressed by snowfall potential moving forward.
    The Euro shows us something around the 12th, but it would be a rain to snow event and not all that much

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&rh=2023020600&fh=150

    10:1 snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023020600&fh=162&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    At least the Euro shows something and IF we were to get enough out of it Boston could avoid the least snowiest
    Winter on record.

    2. Indeed . That system will start as rain & May or May not change over to snow overnight Saturday, current thinking is no big deal at all

      1. My brother bought his Ariens in 1969 when he was 16, using the money he made from his lawn and snow customers. That ariens as of maybe 10 years ago was still running.

    3. Great pictures! Where were the snow plows and people out shoveling? Looks like no one in that second picture was even attempting to dig out!

  12. TK your 78 blizzard link is excellent. Thank you. I most liked that it stated the storm was well forecast. Too many times I hear it was not well forecast. In the 30+ years mac and I were at our company it was the only time that management met to set up a call in system the next morning for its employees.

    We were let go early. One VP and friend stood near the door when we all left saying he’d see us in the morning. He was stuck on 128 overnight 🙁

  15. Had the 1978 Blizzard been today, recovery would have been fairly quickly. Schools would have reopened within 2-3 days and there likely would not have been the backup on route 128 as most folks would have stayed home in advance. If I recall, there were no cancellations of schools or work, other than a precious few who were let out early but by then it was too little, too late. My school didn’t get out early as I remember trudging along in the wind driven snow.

    1. I seem to recall many companies bring let out early contributed to the traffic. However, since 1978 we have had one or two storms where our governor banned any driving ahead. So you are right. we might go better because of lessons learned.

  17. Touch of good news… Brother coming out of ICU and to next level of “improved enough to move to a new place” care. Not sure what they call it at this hospital, so I made up my own name. Hah! Awaiting further update…

          1. If only that storm was 200 miles NW and we were 20 degrees colder, it could have been something….. 🙂

            Sadly that’s considered a “near miss” in this winter!

        1. Hmmm…….good omen. Perhaps this one is the real deal.

          Can we pull off 1″ of snow cover from 2/28 to 3/1? Can we do it???

      1. Strongest in 40 years. Hopefully no injuries. I know 3.8 is not huge but can still be felt. Mother Nature is shaking her fist.

  25. Dutch mets aren’t buying any real cold or snow the rest of the winter. It has been a weird winter there, too. They’re having a couple of coldish nights this week (mid to upper 20s), but it won’t hang around long and the temps during the day go well into the 40s and in a few days above 50. They’ve commented that usually when there’s this much Siberian cold it makes real and sustained incursions into most of Europe. Not this year. And they say rather emphatically now that it won’t for the remainder of the season. The Dutch mets rarely comment on North America. But when they do they mention the fact that cold incursions into the Northeastern U.S. have been few and far between, which they said is unusual given that there’s plenty of cold air that could work its way into the Northeast (and has worked its way into other parts of the country for longer periods of time).

  26. Harvey doesn’t see any real snow chances these next two weeks or so , saying you never know how it could end , boy it was good to see my old friend on ch5 tonight .

    1. I had to request access but it goes to an email I link to online stuff so my real email isn’t used and I never use that email. Darn.

  28. I can’t believe it’s already feb 7th tomorrow, month is going by fast & it’s only 28 days !

  29. Captain, fantastic to listen to the broadcast. Thank you for sharing. It was interesting to hear the man say minus zero celsius, or 32 Fahrenheit. I think that’s what I heard. One of the men had an old Rhode Island accent, which I enjoyed hearing.

    As a teenager I would call the national weather service – I think it was 936-1234 (that’s what I recall; maybe I’m wrong about that) obsessively when there was a snowstorm. I started this obsession at 10. I loved hearing the words “winter storm warning in effect.” Not much of that (well not at all) this year, alas.

  32. From TK, SAK, we read that the 80s weren’t exactly snowy. I am sure they’re right. I wasn’t here in the Boston area most of that decade. But, I must have picked my spots when visiting home. I went home mid to late December, 1982 and back to Holland first week of January. Cold most of the time, with one mild interlude. There was some snow around. Not much, but it was icy and cold. Went home to Boston mid to late December, 1983 and back to Holland first week of January. I remember driving in my Mom’s old (1966) Volvo station wagon (stick shift) in a snowstorm. Not a major storm, but certain snowy. Also cold much of the time, with a mild interlude. Then mid December 1985 to first week of January 1986. Very cold the first week or so, some light snow, mild interlude and then cold again. Similar story mid December 1986 to first week of January 1987. My last visit in the 80s was February 1989. I arrived, and the next morning (well, overnight) it snowed 5 inches. My Dad told me there hadn’t been much snow until I arrived. It was seasonably cold throughout my 8 day stay.

    1. I’ve never experienced (overall) a milder winter than this one. Not in Boston, that is. And certainly never experienced so many stretches of 40s/50s in a row.

      1. Using data for December 1 through February 5, this is the 8th warmest period on record for Boston.

        1 2016-02-05 39.3
        2 1913-02-05 38.1
        3 2002-02-05 38.0
        4 2020-02-05 37.8
        – 1933-02-05 37.8
        6 2012-02-05 37.0
        – 1932-02-05 37.0
        8 2023-02-05 36.4

        The winter of 2011-12 (December 1 – March 31) had a grand total of 8 days in Boston where the high failed to top 32. It had 41 days with a high of 50 or high, 17 of them in March alone.

    2. I have to dig out photos and videos of my kids in the snow. We had enough to play in, Sled in and have snowball fights in. And for Mac to spend time getting the snowblower started as I shoveled the driveway 🙂 🙂 But it was the very start of warming.

      2. Here’s the thing, Vicki. On those visits in the 80s, every time I went home it felt so different from Holland when I arrived in Boston. It was winter. It was cold. Sure, there were some mild days – usually 1, and then immediately followed by a real cold front – but overall it was cold. And the climate I was leaving – in Holland – was like it is here now; mild and cloudy gray nothingness. This winter in Boston has featured an incredible amount of gray nothingness.

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