Tuesday February 7 2023 Forecast (7:26AM)

87 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 7-11)

Weak high pressure starts us out with sunshine today, then a cold front approaches from the west later on with clouds, and this front will produce a brief but messy precipitation episode this evening, snow/sleet north, rain toward the South Coast, and an area of freezing rain between. Untreated surfaces in some areas may become slippery this evening and overnight. High pressure brings fair weather back to the region for Wednesday with a gusty breeze for a while behind departing low pressure initially, before that settles down. Thursday dawns bright but clouds advance ahead of a warm front that brings a period of rain, that may start as sleet and snow to the north and west. That front goes by and sets us up for a very mild Friday with lots of clouds. A cold front then slides across the region Friday night into Saturday with rain showers, and the front likely hangs up so that we have additional wet weather on Saturday as colder air filters in, maybe meaning some mix/snow before the day is over in areas to the northwest.

TODAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind W-SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Evening precipitation – snow/sleet/ice/rain north to south. Lows 28-35. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

WEDNESDAY: Lots of sun, few clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain mid to late afternoon that may begin as snow or sleet well north and west of Boston. Highs 43-50 occurring late in the day. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of rain in the evening, drizzle and patchy fog overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain, may mix with sleet/snow southern NH and central MA later. Highs 40-47 then falling slowly. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 12-16)

Rain/mix/snow possible early in the period and another system threatens later in the period with precipitation. Mostly dry weather in between. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 17-21)

One or two low pressure systems may impact the region with precipitation threats as an active pattern goes on.

87 thoughts on “Tuesday February 7 2023 Forecast (7:26AM)”

  4. According to Matt Noyes this morning, do not give up on any more snow for the season…there is still March!

    1. I knew February short, but wow, we’re only doing 7 days this year, eh ?? 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  5. Its cold this morning !

    We still have a decent breeze from that strong offshore low this morning, so there is quite a wind chill.

  8. Just wondering. Did any of the tv mets on air recognize the 45th anniversary of the Blizzard of ‘78? I can understand that #50 will be the “big one” but still…

    This week is actually “the week” if you know what I mean.

          1. Tweets are fine but there should have been segments on the tv broadcasts as well. That blizzard was a very historical weather event for the ages.

              1. Well, I can’t say 100% for certain but I didn’t see any mention from the segments I saw yesterday. I suppose tweets have replaced a lot of formal recognitions. I am definitely “old school” to say the least. 😉

  11. I was just watching a news conf. Brockton hospital is being evacuated. I tuned in later but the fire chief mentioned six (don’t take my word for that) alarms right now.

    2. Yes, it is at 6 alarms now. Brockton has the fire contained and the alarms are more for assistance in getting patients evacuated as there is no power to the building. My dad was in that hospital and I can’t imagine how the families with patients in ICU are feeling right now.

      1. Thanks, Sue. I was thinking of the patients and their families also. Just awful. But thank God the fire is under control.

        1. We practice code reds all of the time throughout the hospital ( including inpatient units regularly) testing of elevators, generators etc & I am actively involved in all of that .

  12. Did anyone watch Tom Brady’s latest podcast? He has Bill on and man it was good. Both men acknowledged each other and that it was about the combination of the two of them than either one of them. The so-called riff between them was more about media than anything else. With this news I think its really possible to see Brady ceremoniously retiring a Patriot. I think a Bill-Tom statue with the superbowl trophies should be built in front of Patriot’s place.

    1. I have not.

      I just listened to Bobby Bones discussion of Brady’s retirement. I am a huge fan of bones. It was easily the best and most respectful discussion I have heard.

      1. Wife works at Brockton hospital . Currently I had a heart attack and going through cardiac rehab there . Don’t think I’ll be going tomorrow. They are a really good hospital in a very tough area . God bless everyone there and all the folks protecting patients

        1. Good luck Aidan ! I had a heart attack 6 years ago. Left descending artery was blocked. Had a balloon inserted into the artery, then did a 6-8 week rehab outpatient program. Good luck and good heart health going forward.

  13. Brockton went to 7 alarms. Under control now.

    Phil .. all channels acknowledged the Bizz’s 45th.

        1. I know someone who will be in South Florida for February School break and is very happy to see this projected strong ridge and projected temps in the 80s. 🙂 🙂 🙂 Please, I hope this holds !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      2. Kind of promotes warm weather here
        and CUTTERS for storm systems.

        Really looks like WINTER, doesn’t it!)(@&#(&!@)(#&*()!@*#()!*@)(#*!)(@#*)(!*@#()!*()@#*)!(@*#)(!*@)#(*!)(@#*)(!*@#)(!*@)(#*!)(@#*)(!*@#)(*!)(@#*)(!*@#)(@*!)@(#*!(*#@)(!

  15. Thank you, TK.

    SAK, I appreciate the numbers you posted yesterday evening on this being (so far) the 8th warmest/mildest winter.

    My perception of this winter has been – and will be, most likely – lots of 40s and gray. Granted, there hasn’t been a lot of anomalous warmth, even in January. We didn’t have 60F or 65F degree days, at least I can’t recall them. But, it’s been the long stretches of 40s and sometimes low 50s and lack of cold at night that have characterized the winter. For me, at least.

  17. Official death toll from the earthquake in Turkey/Syria rising fast. It’s at 6,300. As my Turkish colleagues noted yesterday, the toll could be close to 10,000 when the tally is completed. One of the worst earthquake disasters in years. Certainly the worst to strike Turkey.

  19. TK…

    I think you told me once that you had a book or report from your climatology days that listed snow amounts from the Blizzard.
    Did you ever find it or remember what box it’s in?

    I recently was told by a NWS employee that Norton had 39″ from the Blizzard of ’78. The measurement was taken at an official site in Norton that has been in operation since 1976.

    I was a cub reporter for the Mansfield NEWS in 1978 and I reported that Mansfield had 45″ of snow, but I do not remember where I got that number.

    1. TK and I used to work with the State Climatologist. Before we were all forced out, I saved a bunch of files that he had on the system that were of interest to me. One is the complete list of all snow amounts from the Blizzard of 78.

      City Storm Total
      Massachusetts
      Taunton 38.5
      Lawrence 37.0
      Walpole 36.1
      Brockton 36.0
      Sharon 35.5
      Wellesley 35.0
      Northbridge 34.0
      North Bellingham 33.0
      Littleton 32.5
      Rockport 32.5
      Foxboro 32.0
      Lynn 32.0
      Milton 32.0
      Framingham 31.0
      Gardner 31.0
      Wakefield 31.0
      South Weymouth 30.8
      Natick 30.4
      Blue Hill Observatory 30.1
      Bellingham 30.0
      Chestnut Hill 30.0
      Franklin 30.0
      Lake Cochituate 30.0
      Lowell/Dracut 30.0
      Newton 30.0
      North Reading 30.0
      Middleton 29.4
      Bedford 29.0
      Bridgewater 29.0
      Saugus 29.0
      West Medway 29.0
      Reading 28.6
      Hingham 28.0
      Swampscott 27.6
      East Weymouth 27.2
      Boston 27.1
      Haverhill 27.1
      Jamaica Plain 27.0
      Southbridge 27.0
      Ware 27.0
      West Groton 27.0
      New Bedford 26.0
      Winchendon 26.0
      Newburyport 25.3
      Ipswich 25.0
      Westford 25.0
      Buffumville 24.0
      Fall River 24.0
      Jefferson 24.0
      Middleboro 24.0
      Milford 24.0
      Peabody 24.0
      Plymouth 24.0
      Birch Hill 23.8
      Clinton 23.8
      Ayer 23.0
      Sterling 23.0
      Tully Lake 23.0
      Acushnet 22.0
      East Brimfield 22.0
      Rochester 22.0
      Segreganset 22.0
      Princeton 21.7
      Dunstable 21.5
      New Salem 20.3
      Worcester 20.2
      Barre Falls 20.0
      Beechwood 20.0
      Belchertown 20.0
      Chester 20.0
      Fitchburg 20.0
      Hardwick 20.0
      Springfield 20.0
      Coldbrook 19.5
      Chesterfield 19.0
      Holyoke 19.0
      West Rutland 19.0
      Pelham 18.8
      Boylston 18.0
      Petersham 17.7
      Borden Brook 17.5
      East Wareham 16.2
      Heath 16.0
      Quabbin Resevoir 16.0
      Colrain 15.0
      Falmouth 15.0
      Great Barrington 14.5
      Shelburne Falls 14.5
      Ashfield 14.1
      Hyannis 14.0
      Provincetown 14.0
      Ashburnham 13.9
      Hubbardston 13.9
      West Otis 13.8
      Westfield 13.0
      Dalton 12.3
      Cummington Hill 12.0
      Greenfield 12.0
      Knightville 12.0
      Turners Falls 12.0
      Amherst 11.4
      Sunderland 11.0
      Adams 10.0
      Charlemont 10.0
      Chatham 9.6
      Nantucket 4.0

      Rhode Island
      Woonsocket 38.0
      North Foster 36.0
      Clayville 31.0
      Providence 28.6
      Newport 28.0
      Kingston 24.6
      Westerly 17.2
      Peace Dale 15.0
      Point Judith 14.0
      Block Island 10.5

      Connecticut
      Mansfield Hollow 24.0
      Norfolk 24.0
      West Thompson 24.0
      Mt. Carmel 23.6
      Storrs 22.0
      Jewett 21.5
      Putnam 21.5
      Brooklyn 21.0
      Cockaponset 20.0
      Danbury 20.0
      Waterbury 19.0
      Woodbury 19.0
      New London 18.2
      Coventry 18.0
      Meriden 18.0
      Middletown 18.0
      Shepaug Dam 18.0
      Groton 17.2
      Burlington 17.0
      Thomaston Dam 17.0
      Hartford 16.9
      Windsor Locks 16.9
      Wigwam 16.5
      Norwich 16.0
      Torrington 16.0
      Stamford 15.0
      Bridgeport 13.3

      New Hampshire
      Berlin 30.0
      Lebanon 28.0
      Pinkham Notch 28.0
      Francestown 25.0
      Greenfield 25.0
      Hanover 25.0
      MacDowell Dam 25.0
      Lancaster 24.0
      South Danbury 22.6
      Durham 22.0
      Mt. Sunapee 22.0
      Marlow 22.0
      Milford 22.0
      Peterboro 21.8
      Manchester 21.2
      Alton 21.0
      Greenland 21.0
      Nashua 21.0
      Surry Mountain 21.0
      Bradford 20.0
      Fitzwilliam 20.0
      South Lyndeboro 20.0
      Wolfeboro 20.0
      Keene 20.0
      Laconia 19.5
      Epping 19.0
      Errol 19.0
      Weare 18.5
      Penacook 18.0
      Benton 17.2
      Bethlehem 17.0
      Deering 17.0
      Milan 17.0
      Otter Brook 17.0
      Newport 16.0
      Franklin Falls 15.5
      North Conway 15.0
      Walpole 15.0
      Blackwater Dam 14.0
      Moultonboro 14.0
      Monroe 13.5
      Concord 13.1
      Tamworth 13.0
      Mt. Washington 12.5
      Grafton 12.4
      Rochester 12.0
      Woodstock 12.0
      North Stratford 11.0
      Lakeport 9.1
      West Rumney 9.0
      First Connecticut Lake 7.0

      Maine
      Rangeley Lake 33.3
      Long Falls Dam 26.5
      Harris 23.2
      Rumford 23.0
      Brunswick 21.0
      Livermore Falls 20.0
      New Sharon 20.0
      Bridgton 18.0
      Bar Harbor 17.0
      Greenville 17.0
      Brassua Dam 16.0
      Moosehead 16.0
      Lewiston 15.6
      Bangor 15.0
      Old Town 15.0
      West Enfield 15.0
      Orono 14.0
      Sanford 14.0
      Springfield 14.0
      Augusta 13.2
      Belfast 13.0
      Corinna 13.0
      Lovell 13.0
      East Hiram 13.0
      Middle Dam 12.1
      Eastport 12.0
      Newcastle 11.0
      Jackman 10.0
      Machias 8.7
      Jonesboro 8.0
      Portland 8.0
      Clayton Lake 5.5
      Houlton 4.0
      Fort Kent 3.0
      Squa Pan Dam 3.0
      Caribou 2.0

      Vermont
      Cavendish 34.5
      East Wallingford 32.0
      Woodstock 30.0
      Ludlow 28.5
      Brookfield 28.0
      Wilder 28.0
      Rochester 25.0
      Chittenden 24.5
      Bellow Falls 24.0
      Brattleboro 24.0
      Rutland 24.0
      Granville 22.0
      South Londonderry 22.0
      Vernon 22.0
      Dorset 21.0
      Union Village Dam 21.0
      Wardsboro 20.4
      Ball Mountain 20.0
      Gilman 20.0
      Peru 20.0
      Bethel 14.0
      St. Johnsbury 14.0
      Chelsea 13.6
      South Newbury 13.5
      East Haven 13.0
      Salisbury 13.0
      West Dover 13.0
      Readsboro 10.8
      West Burke 9.0
      Mt. Mansfield 8.8
      Montpelier 8.0
      Bennington 7.3
      Pownal 7.3
      Burlington 3.9
      Newport 3.5
      Enosburg Falls 1.5
      South Hero 1.0

      New York
      Patchogue 27.0
      Islip 26.0
      Cherry Valley 25.0
      Riverhead 25.0
      Rochester 25.0
      Batavia 24.0
      Slide Mountain 23.5
      Gabriels 20.0
      Colden 19.1
      Cooperstown 19.1
      Lake Placid 19.0
      Bridgehampton 18.0
      Port Jervis 18.0
      NYC-Central Park 17.7
      Liberty 17.0
      Walton 15.5
      Middletown 15.0
      Canaan 14.4
      Grafton 14.4
      NYC-Laguardia 14.4
      Poughkeepsie 14.2
      Elmira 14.0
      Albany 13.4
      Gardiner 12.0
      Yorktown Heights 12.0
      Binghamton 10.4
      Massena 9.2
      Millbrook 9.0
      Syracuse 8.4
      Buffalo 8.2

      New Jersey
      Newton 26.0
      Oak Ridge 26.0
      Flemington 22.0
      Belvidere 20.0
      High Point 20.0
      Wrightstown 20.0
      Branchville 19.0
      Morristown 19.0
      Newark 19.0
      Charlotteburg 17.0
      Lakehurst 17.0
      Hightstown 16.6
      New Brunswick 16.5
      Trenton 16.1
      Asbury Park 16.0
      Freehold 15.0
      Cape May 14.0
      Atlantic City 12.6
      Camden 12.0
      Millville 9.5

      Pennsylvania
      Tobyhanna 30.0
      Pleasant Mount 22.0
      Montrose 19.0
      Matamoras 17.5
      Willow Grove 16.0
      Doylestown 15.0
      Ephrata 15.0
      Zerbey 15.0
      Coatsville 14.0
      West Chester 14.0
      York 14.0
      Philadelphia 13.6
      Allentown 13.4
      Wilkes-Barre 11.9
      Williamsport 10.5
      Harrisburg 10.0

      Delaware
      Dover 15.0
      Wilmington 14.2
      Middletown 11.5
      Georgetown 10.0

      Maryland
      Cambridge 18.0
      Millington 14.1
      Parkton 13.5
      Centreville 12.0
      Aberdeen 10.0
      Baltimore 9.0
      Annapolis 8.5
      Woodstock 8.0
      Westminster 7.2
      Salisbury 6.4

  21. I was looking at the ECMWF Seasonal today that came out on February 1.

    Of the 51 members, here’s what they have for snowfall for Boston for the rest of the winter:

    10″ or less: 16 members
    11-20″: 14 members:
    21-30″: 12 members
    31-40″: 6 members
    41″+: 3 members

    The range is 3″ to 57″, with a mean of 19″

    If you want just through the end of February:
    Less than 1″: 2 members
    1-3″: 18 members
    4-6″: 19 members
    7-11″: 9 members
    12″+: 11 members

    The range is Less than 1″ to 24″ with a mean of 7″

    The conclusion is that most of the members are going to quite a lot of snow in March/April.

    1. That may be, but at this point I will believe it when I see it. 🙂
      At this point, I don’t care for snow in March and April. I want it Dec, Jan and Feb. By March I am ready for Spring. 🙂

  22. Thanks, SAK!
    That’s awesome!
    You are great to post that data!

    Heard you at 6:05 last night on WSAR! 🙂

    1. Yup, I worked a rare dayshift yesterday covering someone else’s day off, so I got to do a bunch of the radio stations I usually am not on, including WSAR – where I got to chat about the Blizzard of 78 during the live forecast we do with them at 12:15 every weekday.

  23. One last thing:

    Here’s a link to a PowerPoint put together by Andy Todesco of the Mansfield (MA) Historical Society for the 40th Anniversary of the Blizzard of 1978 in 2018. It was a wonderful afternoon at the Mansfield Public Library with about 100 folks in attendance with stories and reminiscing about the storm and its aftermath.

    Many of the photos in the slides are from the Mansfield NEWS.
    Slide 59 is a 17-year “Captain Fantastic”, a senior at Mansfield High School, buying “Bread and Milk” at the Mansfield Curtis Compact!!! 🙂

    https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1-bvgzLoyVVV8Ed6z-JbVo_f6c86X4B5d/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=101135565665159192702&rtpof=true&sd=true

  24. Thank you for that list SAK. It helps me understand why I have no memory of that storm at the time it happened.

    I was a freshman at Clarkson College in Potsdam, NY. Massena, about 18 miles away, got 9.2″. There was no internet, we had no television, the strongest radio stations were all in French, and there was no effect on the hockey schedule.

    1. That storm, as far as Northeast snowstorms go, was rather small in coverage, but the impact along the coast (devastation and snow) and not too far inland (snow amounts and drifting) was astounding.

      People have questioned why the storm was not a contender for #1 on the list of Northeast snowstorms in the book written by Paul Kocin and Louis Uccellini. The reason is just that. Coverage. No doubt it was a historic storm where it impacted, but when you compare it to the March 1993 superstorm, for example, the coverage pales in comparison to the ’93 storm which had major impacts from Cuba to Quebec, and everywhere in between.

  25. A little positive news today…

    There has been some progress made by my brother in terms of attempt to talk. Better movement on left side, struggle still on right, no surprise. Awaiting MRI results.

  26. Here is the text from the NWS Winter Weather Advisory.

    Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA- Central Middlesex MA-Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA- Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA- Eastern Hampden MA-Southern Worcester MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-
    Northern Middlesex MA- Including the cities of Charlemont, Greenfield, Orange, Barre, Fitchburg, Framingham, Lowell, Lawrence, Gloucester, Chesterfield, Blandford, Amherst, Northampton, Springfield, Milford, Worcester, Cambridge, and Ayer

    322 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2023

    …WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY…

    * WHAT…Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow/sleet
    accumulations of less than one inch and ice accumulations of a light glaze.

    * WHERE…Portions of central, eastern, northeastern and western Massachusetts.

    * WHEN…From 7 PM this evening to 2 AM EST Wednesday.

    * IMPACTS…Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
    conditions could impact the end of the evening commute across central and western MA.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    Slow down and use caution while traveling.

  27. Today was a glorious winter day. Can’t take that away from us. I sometimes wish we had 365 days like this a year. I know it would be boring. But man is the air nice and refreshing.

    I concur with JPD. Snow in March and April (and late February) just isn’t the same. But, perhaps more importantly, I am very skeptical about us getting snow the rest of this winter; that is, anything more than a couple of inches of glop.

  29. I myself will take snow whatever month we can get it, but I do find it interesting that getting snow around here is <25% in March/April than in December, specifically CHRISTMAS.

  32. Moderate sleet / freezing rain mix here as I was coming back from dog-sitting. Untreated surfaces quite slick. It only took minutes. NWS was right on the button with the advisory up this way.

    1. We had another round of graupel but It’s just rain now but it is freezing on the walks and deck It’s like a skating rink on the deck And railings are frozen solid.

      1. Untreated surfaces will stay this way until a couple / few hours after sunrise when it goes above freezing – so some touchy going for a bit.

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