Friday February 10 2023 Forecast (6:43AM)

104 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 10-14)

Low pressure heads eastward across southeastern Canada becoming a larger presence in the Canadian Maritimes through Saturday. A weak cold front moved through our region but this morning we’re left with mild air and light wind, which has allowed some dense fog in parts of the region while other areas have cleared out. A freshening westerly wind will scour out any fog quickly this morning but we’ll stay mild during the day today, warming up enough to challenge a couple record high temps in the area. However, a secondary cold front will swing through later, generally unnoticed except for its delivery of colder air tonight through Saturday. High pressure sliding south of the region over the weekend means a quick temperature rebound Sunday, but only half way between Saturday’s temps and today’s temps (are you paying attention? haha!). We’ll have a generally fair weather weekend as well. Clouds will be on the increase Sunday however ahead of and north of developing low pressure southwest and west of New England. This low will track offshore on Monday, definitely close enough to spread its cloud canopy across the region, and probably close enough for some rain to move into at least southen areas, most certainly the South Coast and quite possibly up to the I-90 corridor and even northward into some of the I-95 belt to the north of I-90 as well, at least for a short period of time, before it starts to move away later Monday, setting us up for fair weather for Valentine’s Day on Tuesday as high pressure approaches.

TODAY: Areas of fog early, otherwise sunshine with a few passing clouds. Highs 55-62. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts 25-35 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 28-35. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming SW.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Thickening clouds. Chance of rain near the South Coast and possibly up to the I-90 belt. Lows 35-42. Wind SW up to 10 MPH early, shifting to E 5-15 MPH overnight.

MONDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain favoring southern and southeastern areas in the morning with some clearing possible during the afternoon. Highs 42-49. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except possibly stronger in coastal areas, shifting to NW.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 15-19)

High pressure shifts quickly to the south and southeast of New England allowing for a significant mid week warm up next week – temperatures to well above normal. A frontal boundary brings rain showers at mid period followed by a return to dry but more seasonably cold weather after that.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 20-24)

One or two precipitation threats are possible in a fairly active pattern. Temperatures trend a little cooler but no major cold indicated at this point.

104 thoughts on “Friday February 10 2023 Forecast (6:43AM)”

  1. A re-post of the Boston & Worcester least-snowy-winters list…

    Boston’s Least Snowy Winters…
    #5: 1994-1995 / 14.9 inches
    #4: 1979-1980 / 12.7 inches
    #3: 1972-1973 / 10.3 inches
    #2: 2011-2012 / 9.3 inches
    #1: 1936-1937 / 9.0 inches
    Currently for 2022-2023 at 7.9 inches.

    Worcester’s Least Snowy Winters…
    #5: 1979-1980 / 26.6 inches
    #4: 1994-1995 / 24.9 inches
    #3: 1936-1937 / 24.6 inches
    #2: 1912-1913 / 23.2 inches
    #1: 1954-1955 / 21.2 inches
    Currently for 2022-2023 at 17.5 inches.

  2. Thanks TK !

    Mini curve ball on how far the warm front got through the area this morning. I’m sure the sun and mixing will push the warm front/occlusion through, but I was surprised to see Logan at 38F this morning.

  3. Thanks TK.

    Warm front very stubborn getting through Boston. When I arrived at work this morning it still didn’t feel particularly warm. Most warm fronts always manage to get through the city with ease.

    1. It will be interesting to see what happens in the last third of winter to the first third of Spring.

      La Nina has definitely weakened the last 1-2 months. Zone 1/2 closest to the west coast of South America almost has some positive SST anomolies.

      I don’t know if the atmosphere will respond to that quick enough, there usually is a lag. And of course, the other teleconnections matter too.

      But, a different late winter/early spring hemispheric pattern wouldn’t surprise me.

    2. I suspect Boston and most other SNE locations will end up in the top “something or other” for least snowiest. Hopefully Boston will get at least a few precious inches more.

  6. I have always been confused with the difference between La Niña and El Niño. If we were in the latter, would we have the complete opposite with snow up to our necks like in 2015?

    1. I used to think that La Niña was the “snowy” one and El Niño was the warm, wet one around here. I’ll remember next time to write off snow when I hear outlooks of a La Niña pattern ahead.

  7. Thanks TK
    I remember a snowy Winter with a la Nina winter 95-96. La Nina is just one piece of the puzzle. There have been weak to moderate el ninos that have produced above normal snowfall.

  8. Thanks TK.

    SESutton is at 56 at a bit before 9:00

    When I opened the bedroom window this morning, the small of spring entered the room. Wow.

  11. The projected 10 day outlook looks like it’s pretty warm for mid February with temps in the upper 40’s & high 50’s towards the end of next week . Mike wankum mentioned the Monday going into that cold weekend ( last weekend ) he thought February could end up on the warm side after that cold snap & doing what January did .

          1. It’s quite warm here at work as well. If your school was open tomorrow, those windows would be shut once again. Temperatures won’t get out of the 30s.

  14. TK – I believe you will have to make that “list” again. For starters, what does ENSO stand for?

    Why can’t weather be simple? 😉

    1. I’ll write something up soon Philip.

      I don’t mind doing so. It’s good for reminders and anyone who missed it.

  20. Thanks, TK.

    Looks like a spring day outside. And a spring sea breeze (at least that’s what I think it is) has knocked the temperature down from 59F 80 minutes ago to 57F.

    Despite the VERY brief period of bitter cold – lasted a nanosecond, but had terrible consequences for some, including broken pipes – February will go down as a very mild month. I am convinced of that. And, given the stubbornly persistent pattern March will be milder than normal, too.

    It is on to spring in my humble opinion. Not that it can’t snow or be somewhat cold from time to time. But, winter just has no bark or bite this year.

  21. Cold air advection setting in, especially aloft. Mt Washington down multiple degrees this morning.

    I think this is why the temps have leveled off or dropped a bit, the airmass above us is cooling off slowly.

    1. I agree. We are after all in a Post frontal passage environment.

      back up to 57 here. The sun is offsetting the cold air advection. 🙂

  27. Pete said Worcester breaks the record at 56 before falling back to 50. I’m thinking if we are going up again, it may be too

  31. JPD – Fine with me that we will be missing out on these “rain” events. You of all people should be absolutely delighted. Rain events missing to our south (especially in succession) this time of year is rare enough as it is. 🙂

  33. I like the sun today. It’s a very stiff breeze downtown, however. Especially around Copley Square.

    Not sure if Boston gets back to 60F. It’s 59F where I am and holding steady.

  34. I like this graph of today’s temperature and DP from a neighbor’s weather station:
    https://ibb.co/d7nm7Tc

    My wife and I took a 90 minute hike today in the Groton Town Forest. What an amazing day! Probably no more than 20% of the trail had any snow, ice, mud, or water on it. The Nashua river is ice-free.

    1. What a perfect day,, SClarke. That is such a beautiful place. My oldest and her horse participated in number Hunter paces there. Other parents and I often walked a good deal of the course.

      I don’t recall the name of the gentleman who owned the property where they start and finish were located. But he was fascaintinv to listen to. Turned out he knew my aunt and uncle, Fred and Lou Ratta, well.

  35. I believe that Norwood’s thermometer (64F) is “high”. I do find it interesting how low they get first thing in the morning/overnight.

    2. Norwood is ok. They are a typical warm spot on a day like this. They are also a typical cold spot on a radiational cooling morning.

  38. According to JR, between now and the end of the month, the warm days will easily outnumber any chilly/cold days. He is also bullish about Boston reaching the #1 spot for warmest winter ever. Currently they are #6 and climbing daily.

    Good luck getting any “February” snow with those stats. 🙁

  39. Days are getting noticeably longer now. This winter is just about a wrap. Sure, it could snow but I wouldn’t place heavy bets on anything significant. Sun angle on top of an unfavorable pattern sure would make for a lousy wager. Probably would do better playing blackjack.

    1. Given our past history of major snowstorms after February, I wouldn’t bet against it either. 😉

      This lesson is never fully learned. 😉

      1. You are absolutely correct Tk . But all Mets seem to be seeing something where at least February is not looking good for snow with what looks like a warm month in the making , could be wrong , but I’m going with a hunch ( no big snow the rest of the month !!!

        1. I never guaranteed big snow in February.

          But given that we can’t really get very detailed out that far we cannot rule it out before the month is over. There are already some signals showing up that I haven’t seen for quite a while.

          I’ve been doing this long enough not to call things off weeks in advance. It is meteorologically unwise.

          I can say with pretty strong confidence that it does not look good for big snow in southern New England through next week.

          I cannot say the same with confidence beyond next week.

          And let me clarify… Big snow does not necessarily mean Blockbuster storms measured in feet.. It means significant snow events that require snow removal.. one or more.

          A lot of people tend to take everything to the extreme. Lately when I mention anything regarding a change to a snowier pattern at some point they automatically seem to assume that I’m thinking 2015. That thinking used to be absent but now it is very prevalent and I believe the media is to blame. The general media.

  41. Thanks TK.

    There are signs this mild weather may be coming to a screeching halt after next week and we may finally be transitioning to a more wintry pattern as we head into the last week of February and March.

    Impending SSW event and potentially significant polar vortex disruption is being modeled and the Euro EPS looks colder for March.

    I wouldn’t put the wraps on winter just yet and I will go so far as to say I would be shocked in Boston and Worcester ended up in the top 5 least snowy winters by the time we get to April.

  42. Judah Cohen
    @judah47
    Feb 9

    FWIW, I can’t remember the last time the EPS weeklies showed as nice a negative North Atlantic/Arctic Oscillation in the weekly mid-tropospheric anomalies. EPS showing classic geopotential height dipole in the North Atlantic and is consistent post a sudden stratospheric warming. twitter.com/judah47/status…

    Judah Cohen
    @judah47

    Normally I don’t pay much attention to the EPS weeklies but last night’s EPS run does suggest a Greenland block developing with a closed mid-tropospheric low over Europe (as I speculated in yesterday’s blog) at the very end of the run. Does this trend continue into the weeklies?

    https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1623797773530238976?s=20&t=WtHf4FE_HT1D49jdWhnKOg

      1. Tomer Burg
        @burgwx
        Feb 9

        Keeping in mind this is still quite far out & potential tropospheric impacts from the upcoming SSW are still uncertain, for what it’s worth, the EPS weeklies look remarkably similar to what long-range outlooks had for Dec 2022 with a strong -NAO & below normal E US heights.

  43. Tomer Burg
    @burgwx
    10h

    The impact from this SSW in the US remains uncertain. But with SSWs associated with an increase in high latitude blocking and — on average — cold anomalies in the Mid Atlantic, our anomalously persistent & warm pattern for much of the winter may be in for a disruption in March.

    1. I think of SSW as south south west. I figured you didn’t mean that so looked it up. Sudden stratospheric warming.

      If that is right. ……

      Sudden ???

          1. I don’t know the specifics behind what causes the stratosphere to rapidly warm but when this does occur, it is typically followed in a few weeks by a disruption of the polar vortex. When the PV is disrupted, colder air is displaced somewhere into the lower latitudes. It’s certainly not a guarantee of colder air in the northeast US but there is some hope of a break in this overly mild pattern.

            1. Thanks Mark. It does surprise me to have more of what we’ve had all winter called
              Sudden. Or am I looking at this backwards

    1. So close and yet so far away.

      While I always hope for some winter, I’m not buying what Judah and the others are selling.

      The block in December wasn’t a memorable one in terms of delivering wintry outcomes, save from a few cold days around Christmas.

      I can see the temperatures reverting to a somewhat normal range for a bit in March, but nothing more than that.

      1. The block in December generated a couple snow events in parts of SNE, and a big snow storm in NNE. We were not far off from something bigger.

        It’s understandable to be skeptical the way things have been going but I’ve lived in the northeast too long to know that you don’t just roll into spring after February 10.

    2. Full on winter has been sitting in N Maine & just over the border for a long time. The cut-off has been rather sharp. We don’t have many 3rd year La Nina occurrences to study, but this one is certainly fascinating. One of the most stable weather patterns I’ve witnessed.

  49. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_stratospheric_warming

    This particular article is a little bit technical but it does have a basic description of a SSW event. These are natural events, more frequent in the N hemisphere than S hemisphere.

    From what I know, they tend to be forecast by models more frequently than they actually occur, at least the stronger ones.

    The SSW is associated with polar vortex breakdown, but not all polar vortex breakdown are a result of a SSW event.

    These have been predicted several times this winter and none of them have really come to pass. However, I believe that may be different this time. Some pretty strong evidence showing up.

Comments are closed.