Saturday February 11 2023 Forecast (8:52AM)

66 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 11-15)

A dry weekend for our area. Today will be a gusty and cool day between eastern Canadian low pressure and a high pressure area to our southwest. The high pressure area will drift into the region tonight into Sunday, diminishing the wind, but as this happens a new storm system from the eastern Gulf of Mexico will track across the US Southeast and off the Mid Atlantic Coast by later Sunday, passing southeast of New England Monday. This system will skirt the region with a period of rain most likely across the South Coast region possibly briefly getting into the Boston-Providence corridor before the system starts to move away. Just as it does so, cold enough air may work in to change the last of the rain to mixed precipitation or snow on Outer Cape Cod, but too late for any significant snow accumulation. Behind this system it will turn a little colder, and a disturbance dropping southeastward out of eastern Canada and into the trough accompanying the storm may bring a few snow showers early Tuesday to our region, especially southern NH and eastern MA, before the rest of the day is fair. A disturbance approaching on Wednesday from the west and southwest brings back some clouds and maybe a bit of rain, as we go right back to mild weather as has been the case so often this 3rd year La Nina winter…

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming SW.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Thickening clouds. Rain likely South Coast. Chance of rain up to South Shore. Lows 35-42. Wind SW up to 10 MPH early, shifting to E 5-15 MPH overnight.

MONDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain favoring southern and southeastern areas in the morning, may end as snow over Outer Cape Cod, then some clearing possible during the afternoon especially in areas north and west of Boston. Highs 42-49. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except possibly stronger in coastal areas, shifting to NW.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Snow showers possible pre-dawn southern NH and northeastern MA. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Lots of clouds with possible snow showers favoring southeastern NH and eastern MA early, then mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25, 11-18 in normal cold spots. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Early sun, then lots of clouds. A touch of snow or sleet possible mainly west and north of Boston then a chance of rain showers. Highs 43-50. Wind calm early, then S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 16-20)

A quick blast of warmer air February 16 into February 17 but may be pinched off a bit by a low pressure center that tracks a little closer to New England than models indicate – meaning the leading edge of warmest air arrives not too long before the cold front that trails the low pressure area. This system will bring a period of rain and showers, maybe even thunder along its cold front, and a fair amount of wind especially in the warm sector and behind the cold front as it turns dry and colder for February 18. High pressure settles in for fair and more tranquil but chilly weather February 19 and then watching for a low pressure system to approach with a precipitation chance by the end of the period – obviously timing uncertain at 10 days out.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 21-25)

One or two precipitation threats are possible in a fairly active pattern. Temperatures trend a little cooler but no major cold indicated at this point.

66 thoughts on “Saturday February 11 2023 Forecast (8:52AM)”

    1. I have not seen any formal messages about it. But in paying attention to it I still notice some “issues”. I’m not sure if they fix it all at once, step by step, or not at all. I’ll poke at a couple folks more “in the know” than I am and see if I can get an answer. 🙂

        1. Now he knows we do miss rain events too. 😉

          A lot of people will say this winter, so far, has been boring and depressing, and I get that. But from a weather geek standpoint, at least my own, I find it fascinating. I was curious what a lenghty La Nina would do, and even though it’s certainly not the ONLY reason as other indices play a role, it’s been fascinating to watch the stability of this pattern and the stubbornness of the Southeast ridge, while the West is having a gangbusters winter the likes of which some areas haven’t seen in a long time, and even just across the border in southern Quebec they are having one of their snowier winters!

          Where it’s been warm, it’s stayed warm (with brief exceptions), and where it’s been cold, it’s stayed cold. And this is the case even in other parts of the world. Examples, record chill at times in Siberia & China, very warm Europe, cold & snowy Middle East. I recall a couple episodes in the 1990s when I was forecasting those areas daily when western Europe would be warm but the Mid East was full on winter weather. I don’t recall if it was La Nina or not.

          Southern Hemisphere is having another cold year to go with the last couple that have seen quite a bit of chilly weather. Two years ago this could not be attributed to Hunga Tonga. This year, I think that volcano is a factor.

          1. It has been fascinating. The west needed the rain and snow but the cold has been a consistent thing there, which is unusual for them and the southeast ridge has been a factor too this winter.

            1. I think we’re at the beginning of a long road back for the Southwest, basically witnessing the start of the end of that drought. Unfortunately some portions of the southwestern Plains are in drought and that has actually worsened a bit, but I don’t think that particular one will be nearly as long term as the one further west, but it will have more staying power than our Northeast droughts – which are a different animal.

  3. Ocean temps except for bays and harbors have stay above 40 degrees. Maybe less impact for cold sea breezes this spring unless we turn very cold in March.

    1. You can also upwell or circulate colder water into the coastal areas. There has also been a bit of a cooling trend in general in the northwestern Atlantic in the last year or so. I think the latter is AMO-related.

    2. Absolutely and also a spring board to possible higher temps
      during the Summer, which then may affect Next Winter,
      And on and on it goes. I just hope we don’t get into some
      sort of vicious warming cycle here.

      If Summers start getting too warm we may have to move to Northern Main or Canada, perhaps Nova Scotia. 🙂

      1. I think we get a break from the heat a lot this summer Dave. You’d like that. The next 6 to 18 months is when we maximize the impact of the Hunga Tonga volcano, yes even here in the N HEM, IMO.

        1. Well, That would be nice, more so for my wife than I, as she cannot tolerate the heat and especially the humidity.
          I usually can tolerate it, but as I get even older, it is affecting me more and more. One day I actually got sick from the heat and humidity last Summer.

          Yes, PLEASE, keep it AWAY this Summer!!!

          THANK YOU!

  4. Thank you, TK.

    My daughters oldest spent the night. The kids are all outside playing. No jackets. And don’t seem to notice the wind or temp difference.

    1. It was very pleasant in the evening. Later at night you could feel the chill creep in. I noticed it standing outside with my brother’s dog. He lives in a hill, the northern side of one, and the wind was coming right up his road. West and northwest winds always have more impact at his place than southerly ones do because of the north slope. 🙂

      By the way, his dog started eating the snow from the pile we’ve had contests about before… That’s when I knew it was time for her to go in the house.. HAHA.

      1. It was a lovely evening. Kids were out then also. We are also on a hill and the wind roars at us from all directions. And you know I love wind. I came across the video of our trampoline taking flight two days ago.

        Dogs and kids just love to eat snow. When it has just fallen, we scoop some in a cup and put maple syrup on it 🙂

  6. NWS is now talking about that system for early Tuesday. They have it written in their Monday night summary but it would actually take place in the early hours of Tuesday, as I mentioned a couple days ago. This is from their most recent discussion:

    “Monday night…

    A pretty strong shortwave/cold pool aloft will cross the region late Monday night. There appears to be enough upper level support/moisture for a brief round of mainly snow showers. There could even be a very small accumulation in spots…but nothing more than that.”

    That wave may be potent enough for more than “very small”. No I’m not talking about a significant event, but would it surprise me if somebody had to grab a shovel to clear their walkway Tuesday morning? Not at all.

    1. Since this system will favor eastern sections, perhaps Boston cuts into Worcester’s lead a bit?

      Worcester 17.5”
      Boston 7.9”

      1. Remote chance they pick up a tenth or two or three. Worcester has a better shot at increasing that lead in some marginal events ahead.

            1. GDPS even closer but just something to watch. Shorter range guidance will start to pick it up better in about 2 or 3 runs if it’s going to have enough to actually produce something. Again though, best chance is going to be N of Boston.

  8. Thanks, TK:

    Hope everyone is well and happy, and everyone’s loved ones are getting better and stronger each day! 🙂

    1. Thanks!

      Brother’s recovery is going to be very, very slow.
      There are encouraging signs, but nothing that is going to happen too quickly.

      And I echo your wish for all others here that need healing and strength!

      2. Continuing positive thoughts and prayers for him.

        Vicki, I hope your daughter is able to get to the bottom of her symptoms and get a good diagnosis.

        1. Thank you, north. She saw the mass eye Dr Wednesday and ended up in ER that night. She has appointments Monday and Tuesday but is basically in bed till then. It’s getting hard to believe we have one of the best medical hospitals and doctors in the world. Sorry for the rant. We are all so frustrated.

            1. ❤️. Thank you so much, North. TK and his brother and mom and all his family are never far from my thoughts.

              We have been reading about Covid vaccines and severe vertigo. I don’t think anyone sees the Covid page any more but I did email Joshua to see if he knows any information on that.

  9. TK – How much snow did Worcester get back in 2011-12? I noticed from your stats on the last blog that Worcester didn’t make the top 5 “least snowiest” for that season like Boston did (#2 = 9.3”).

    1. Worcester received 39.7 inches of snow in the 2011-2012 winter. Their largest snowfall of the season was 14.6 inches on October 29-30. That was their second measurable snow of the season though, as one occurred just a couple days before that when 1.4 inch fell on October 27.

      1. Thanks TK. They did well considering that dreadful winter. Of course, this one could top that one very easily. *Sigh*.

        Let us hope March can save our season…somewhat.

  10. Thanks TK. Continuing to keep your family in my thoughts!

    One thing’s for sure, my “colder February” prediction for the East is a flop. Minus about 36 hours worth 😛

    While I’m not sure (especially since it’s not the direction I was expecting thing to go), I think having a strong phase 3-5 MJO combined with a +AO has provided a reinforcement to the La Nina base state, despite La Nina weakening rather quickly now. A supercharged Southeast ridge, which looks to stay in place at least another 8-12 days.

    Of course, now we’re getting a sudden stratospheric warming. This is already drawing a lot of hype in terms of what it will do to our weather. My advice would be stay away from the hype train, but that a colder and stormier March/April is definitely on the table. And it’s far too early to even think about packing in the shovels and plows for this year 😉

    1. Thanks WxWatcher. Mark mentioned the SSW and tried valiantly to explain it to me. My focus was off yesterday and I’m planning on doing more reading today.

      1. Hi Vicki, hope you’re doing well!! Honestly, I know very little about how the SSWs work. Something I need to put some more time into learning up on, but for now I defer to the experts on it, and they’re in good agreement that one is coming.

        You hardly learn anything about the stratosphere in “meteorology school”. Our weather doesn’t happen there, after all. But the more we learn, the more we know it does have some connections to what happens below it 🙂

  11. I’ve been mostly absent for several days so this may have been posted, but here’s the statewide temperature ranks for January:

    https://twitter.com/NOAANCEI/status/1623356685531156491

    An impressive amount of record or near record warmth in the East. And not surprisingly, cool in the West. But not near record. A big reason for that is fairly mild overnight lows due to the frequent rain.

    Vicki posted some climate-related discussion above. The caveat of course is you can’t use one warm day as a “gotcha” on climate change any more than you can use the recent cold blast to argue against it. But we know it’s not just one mild day – we have far more above normal temperatures now than below normal. I’ve seen talk (outside of WHW!) this winter basically wondering if winters in the Northeast are going extinct. And they’re not, obviously, but there’s some interesting “thought experiments” you can get into regarding how winters will look over the next, say, 10, 50, or 100 years… I may weigh in more on that once we get to the end of the season, and probably after we get a couple good snowstorms in 😉

    1. Thank you, WxW. I have said the same too many times to count. If it were one day, then oh well. But it isn’t. It is time and time again worldwide. I thought Pete’s statement and questions were spot on. More seem to like heat vs cold so the reaction isn’t there. If we were reversed and setting cold temps, would people react then?

  13. Vicki, I don’t read WHW every day and after looking back at a few days a go’s posts I realized your daughter has been ill. My father used to get dizzy at times and my sister and me tend to get dizzy. But not that bad. So sorry I missed seeing your post the other day and prayers, best wishes and love to her and your family. I know what it’s like to be dizzy and it’s quite scary. I also was looking back to see how TK’ s brother was also. It will take time but prayers that he gets better soon.

  15. My oldests oldest is into making videos of her mom riding. This is her newest. She was retraining the big horse for his owner. He just sold well into six figures. He is stunning.

    If you click the sound button, you can hopefully hear the music Adison sets to the video

    https://imgur.com/a/0HwnbyC

  16. Though the northeast has been warm, down here in the tropics it has been amazingly pleasant with highs in the low/mid 80s with humidity in the 50s/60s.

    I also think that this spring will be on the cooler and wetter side.

  18. For the first time in a long time, both major models are forecasting an MJO trip through phases 7, 8, and eventually 1…

    That said, I’m still skeptical of the GFS’s ability to forecast right now.

    Still, I might have to ask some people if they still want to write winter off as we head into late February. 😉

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