Monday February 13 2023 Forecast (7:01AM)

65 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 13-17)

A pretty potent low pressure area is passing southeast of New England early today but is far enough out to sea that it barely got its rain area over the South Coast, and that exists via Cape Cod this morning, leaving the region with a dry but breezy and cool day as clouds try to hang on through the day. Upper level low pressure scoots southeastward across the area tonight and very early Tuesday with a few snow showers mainly in NH and eastern MA. The balance of Tuesday, Valentine’s Day, will be nice but on the breezy side. A small area of high pressure crosses the region Tuesday night allowing the wind to drop off, but the wind picks right back up Wednesday as the high moves offshore and a disturbance moves in with clouds and a rain shower threat. This warm up continues through Thursday but additional wet weather arrives later as low pressure heads northeastward through the eastern Great Lakes. The low will then move down the St. Lawrence Valley Friday, dragging a cold front across the region with more wet weather, and putting an end to the warm-up. The timing of the front will help determine the high temperatures for Friday. My early idea is a midday frontal passage, a very mild and wet morning, and a colder and drier afternoon with plenty of wind.

TODAY: Lots of clouds. Early rain Cape Cod. Highs 41-48. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers possible southern NH and northeastern MA with spotty minor accumulations. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind NW up to 10 MPH becoming variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Early sun, then lots of clouds with a chance of rain showers. Highs 50-57 by late. Wind calm early, then SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds. Chance of a rain shower. Lows 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusty.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain by late-day. Highs 58-65, possibly cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with rain showers likely through midday, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 55-62 morning, falling temperature afternoon. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts shifting to NW.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 18-22)

Dry weather expected over the February 18-19 weekend with a gusty breeze and chilly air Saturday, less wind and a little milder Sunday. Minor system may scoot through with a bit of precipitation February 20 and watching a larger low pressure system with a precipitation threat by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 23-27)

Flatter ridge of high pressure in the US Southeast allows the boundary between warm air to the south and cold air in Canada to be in our region with a more unsettled pattern as a result. Many details to work out in the days ahead…

65 thoughts on “Monday February 13 2023 Forecast (7:01AM)”

  4. Thanks TK !

    I wasn’t really rooting for either team last night.

    I give the Eagles cornerback tremendous credit for saying after the game that he did hold.

    Even so, I still hate that holding call.

    The hold just didn’t look egregious and there were other worse holds during the game that were not called, in my opinion.

    The game, which was very entertaining was building to a tense finish and that call just took that all away.

    2. I didn’t watch after the game. Good for that player. I was torn. What I saw didn’t look serious enough. But I wondered if we didn’t see everything. The announcers did say he grabbed the shirt at one point maybe out of camera shot.

      I wanted KC. The eagles can be a nasty team and I hate nasty. It was a tremendous game that made it way to see why the two teams were at the SB. I’m not sure I ever enjoyed a game more where two teams I didn’t care about were playing.

      Surely the commercials and what they called a half time show didn’t keep me watching

    3. Yeah usually in a game 7 most refs will let the guys play the game & let some minor stuff go as the game is huge , that should not have been called for whoever is playing as it was so minor .

      1. You are Absolutely right. I have always had a lot of problems with that. A penalty is a penalty no matter what point the game is at. If a team wins by breaking rules, how is that a win?

      1. Just about on time. Usually there is still a snow cover and they stick their heads up from underneath the snow. 🙂

  7. When I don’t have a strong feeling I tend to pull for the team considered the visitor. So I was pleased to see KC win and even more pleased with the entertainment factor of the game. The fluff around the game is fun but not my focus.

    If I have to comment, the ads were good. 🙂

    I had a few faves.

    And I chuckled about Budweiser opting out of exclusivity, letting the others play a bit, then showing up with a superior ad that shows them who still rules the beer ad playground. 😉 Nice move.

    1. I did have four ads that were good. Nothing exceptional. Budweiser was missed I’m also looking forward to Joel McHales new show. The keep one might have been my favorite.

  8. Agree with Tom. The holding call determined the outcome of the game. There hadn’t been a holding call ALL game, in which there were several instances of clear holding that weren’t called! In my opinion, you don’t make a game-determining call when the hold is as soft as it was. I think the NHL does a MUCH better job in this regard. Blatant and flagrant, call it. Otherwise, don’t.

    Ultimately, what lost the game for the Eagles was not the holding call, but the strange drop by Hurts. If he hadn’t dropped the ball (and then kicked it away, only to be scooped up and run in for a Chiefs TD), I think the Eagles would have won the game handily. Hurts was better than Mahomes throughout the game. Some of Hurts’ passes were just sublime. And his power running reminded me of Cam Newton in his prime.

    1. Now that is hysterical. My grandkids had varied comments. One thought they were dogs wiggling their butts. The six year old asked if she was pregnant or had a basketball under her costume. The best came from the 9 year old. He said in a very serious concerned voice: SHES IN THE AIR NOT TIED ON WITH A BABY

    2. I didn’t bother to watch the halftime show but if there was a skit with Covid hazmat suits, I don’t find that particularly “entertaining” at all.

      I spent the halftime show taking out my garbage for todays pickup. 😉

  13. I was looking forward to see the all female navy pilots do their flyover after the National Anthem. I got to see it but I wish there was a bit more showing of it. Well, they did a good job anyway. 🙂

    One of the women was local (MA). I forget which town.

    50 years (1973-2023)

    1. Waltham. And I was disappointed too as I was hoping for more discussion. I thought maybe I missed it but guess I didn’t.

      1. They only flashed one of them up close in the cockpit. With today’s technology they could have had split screens of them all at the same time imo.

  14. I bet Mahomes is going to end up challenging Brady’s SB appearances and wins someday. He’ll definitely have KC in contention year after year after year like Brady was with the Patriots.

    As for the game, I didn’t have any particular rooting interest for either team since it wasn’t a “David vs. Goliath” matchup like in some years past.

  15. For January, Burlington was +8.3F relative to average

    Actual high temp was 34.8F
    Actual low temp was 23.6F

    How that gives anyone confidence to walk out on ice covered water that is deeper than one’s ankle escapes me.

    Stay off the ice !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    1. I know nothing about ice fishing. I’ve seen some discussions from ice fishermen out this way. They seem to know exact measures to take in order to test to see if the ice is strong. I was surprised for that reason alone to hear this awful news.

        1. Seems to me that it shouldn’t have been held in the first place, at least postponed until a prolonged cold spell arrived. The organizers of the tournament should have consulted the local mets for their opinions on the ice thickness.

    1. My father talked about March 1956 all of the time. I remember conversations at the dinner table in February of, say, 1972, and my mother would say “well, it’s been an easy winter snow-wise,” to which my father would reply, “Joan, don’t ever forget March 1956.” He came from Baltimore, which has also had its share of March storms, but nothing like Boston, as he would remind us.

  17. The Lake Champlain tragedy could have been avoided. I would say that given the temperatures across all of New England this winter, except maybe Aristook County in Maine, none of the large lakes are safe.

    By the way, I just spoke to my Turkish colleagues in NYC and they said that the death toll of the earthquake is undercounted by the authorities. It’s currently at 35,000, but my colleagues said the real figure is closer to 50,000.

    I have to say, I’ve seen enough damn balloon news coverage. Once you’ve seen one balloon go down, you kind of get the picture, right. In the grand scheme of things, these balloons are at most a nuisance, not earth-shattering news. What happened in Turkey and Syria is earth-shattering. I wish there was more focus on that in the news here. Dutch TV and media has nearly continuous coverage of the quake, so that’s my go-to for news and analysis of this disaster.

  18. I find this stunning.

    The Dutch have managed to use 25% less energy this year than last! And no, it’s not explained by a mild winter, because last winter was just as mild. The Dutch media suggests “shorter showers and much less use of heat; in some cases, no heat at all” contributed to less usage. Here, I quote from the Dutch news site.

    The Dutch national campaign for less energy usage wouldn’t fly here, though Jimmy Carter would like it. In the fall, the Dutch conservative government asked the people for “minor sacrifices” to help the Ukrainians and lower their overall cost burden. Well, it worked. A 25% drop is really significant.

  19. Thanks TK.

    The latest Euro weeklies to come out are in a word……interesting.

    They are showing west coast ridging/+PNA and Icelandic ridging supportive of a -NAO pattern. The result is a suppressed southeast ridge and temps in the Northeast closer to normal the last week of February then trending below normal as we get into the first three weeks of March. Granted “normal” in March is not the same as January but a pattern like this would be supportive of more wintry weather in New England after we get through the next 10 days.

    Last week of February:

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2023_02/Feb13_12zEPS2-28.png.7bb61628cab53ea1f2874f9fa236d3a4.png

    First week of March:

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2023_02/Feb13_12zEPS3-7.png.d24f0d9f85655bb5227b140ab76611e3.png

    2nd week of March:

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2023_02/Feb13_12zEPS3-14.png.687fd6be9d87791aa04569d7b3c8d1b2.png

    3rd week of March:

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2023_02/Feb13_12zEPS3-21.thumb.png.2eea7b9e091d39f4fef911d9c526a48d.png

  20. Our first “threat” period appears to be around 2/23. Both the 12z GFS and Euro are showing a cold air press from the north and compressed southeast ridge. We are near the boundary with a wave or two of low pressure riding up from the southwest…..i.e. a SWFE (southwest flow event). These can produce significant snow/mix north of the boundary. Of course where that rain/mix/snow line ends up is anyone’s guess at 10 days out.

  21. Thanks Mark. Unfortunately by the time that southeast ridge totally leaves, climatology will be working against us for widespread snows, especially for SNE and the coastline.

    1. Not if the EPS (and 12z/18z GFS) are correct. Some of our biggest snowstorms on record have occurred in late Feb/March.

      1. That is correct. See Dave Epstein’s tweet, which Vicki shared. It’s on March snows, which in some years have been very substantial indeed.

        I’m not expecting anything, but hope to be pleasantly surprised. We shall see.

  22. 18z GFS brings winter on in full force next week with back to back snowstorms.

    Next Wednesday:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023021318&fh=210&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Next Thursday:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023021318&fh=234&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    In fact it snows pretty much non-stop for 40 hours on that run.

    Kuchera total snow with about 18″ for Boston:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023021318&fh=264&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    2. Didnt mean that specifically as a response to your post SSK but there is a growing suggestion of a potential pattern change beyond 10 days out and especially as we get into the last week of Feb/first week of March.

  24. What month in 1969 were the three weekend storms ….March also? I don’t see 1969 but on my phone May have missed it. It was three storms so individually, so they may well not have made the list

    2. I am at a little over 10″ in Coventry. So far the least snowy winter I can recall in my life. I do believe that is going to change though.

      I need 17″ more to eclipse the dreadful winter of 2011-2012. 10″ of my 26″ that year came from the big October snowstorm.

  28. 2001-2002 was not a good winter either for snow lovers just like 2011-2012. The following winters had one major snowstorm the Presidents Day Storm of 2003 and the Blizzard of 2013. Maybe winter 2023-2024 will have a major snowstorm.

    1. I remember being outside doing field work in January 2002 in a short sleeve t-shirt and 70 degree weather. Dont recall what we ended up with for snow that winter as I wasnt keeping track at the time but it had to have been up there with 2011-2012.

      And you are correct, 2012-2013 was a complete turnaround from 2011-2012 and the snowiest year for me since I have lived in CT. I logged 100″ of snow that year. Over half of that was from two storms…32″ from Nemo and 20″ from that freak ocean storm in March with 1,000 mile fetch of moisture off the Atlantic.

      If history repeats itself, I think we will be in for a much better winter next year.

  29. I missed out on that March 2013 storm being too far west.
    March is funny when it comes to snow you could nothing or a lot.

    1. Sure has a different look to it in the late medium and long range than we have seen all winter.

      Of course, we’ll have to see how any changes evolve 🙂

      1. Models don’t grab onto this stuff before some of us can see the potential increasing. Teleconnections, etc. 🙂

    2. I’m in a “show me first” mindset. Trend continues.

      And you watch, even if it does trend colder, stuff will be flat and suppressed.

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