Wednesday February 15 2023 Forecast (7:25AM)

104 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 15-19)

A warm front pushes through the region this morning with thicker clouds and perhaps a brief period of rain. Behind this front many areas top 50 degrees for a high temperature today, except maybe parts of the South Coast where a gusty southwesterly breeze will be coming off cooler water. Moisture from this area will result in some lower clouds for a while streaming across RI and southeastern / eastern MA which may limit the sun at times as it returns with the departure of the thicker middle clouds above. But overall not a bad afternoon despite the gusty wind picking up. As an initial wave of low pressure tracks to our north this evening, the boundary that went by as a warm front will be pulled somewhat back to the south and should bisect the region by morning, and it may sit there for a while Thursday. This along with a return of high and eventually mid level clouds will be a limiting factor in the entire area seeing record warmth. The greatest chance will be south of the boundary in eastern CT, RI, and interior southeastern MA. Again South Coast areas will be modified to the cooler side due to the wind off the water from the south and southwest, though it will not be as strong as today’s will be, so many of those areas should make it into the 50s, while areas north of the boundary may also fail to reach 60, with a narrow area of lower to middle 60s away from the shore and south of the front – kind of a needle-threading situation for the warmest temps. Boston’s record high for February 16 is only 60, so they do have a shot to tie, but may stay just below depending on how much sun / exact frontal position. A stronger low pressure wave moving through the eastern Great Lakes will pull the boundary back to the north as a warm front and put everybody into mild and more humid air by Thursday evening and night with a period of rain. A brief slice of rain-free, windy, and mild weather for early Friday just ahead of a strong cold front, which will be pulled through as the low center heads quickly down the St. Lawrence River Valley. After a windy and relatively brief period of rain showers, which may be heavy, the second half of the day will feature dry weather, a shifted but still gusty wind, and falling temperatures. This sets up a seasonably cold but breezy Friday night and Saturday as low pressure moves through eastern Canada and high pressure approaches from the west. But as many of our colder shots have been this winter, it’s a quick one, and as high pressure moves over and then south of the region Sunday, we’re fair again but milder…

TODAY: Cloudy with brief light rain possible this morning. Sun/cloud mix east, sunnier west afternoon. Highs 45-52 Cape Cod / South Coast, 52-59 elsewhere. Wind variable under 10 MPH early, then SW increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny early then mainly cloudy. Late-day rain possible. Highs 57-64, coolest in southern NH and the northern half of central and eastern MA, warmest southern interior MA, northeastern CT, and northern RI, with highs of 50-57 South Coast. Wind SW-S up to 10 MPH may shift to SE or E for a while in areas near and north of I-90.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely evening. Lows 50-57. Wind S-SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mainly cloudy through midday including a period of rain showers, possibly heavy, from west to east across the region. Sun/cloud mix thereafter. Highs 55-62 morning, then falling temperature afternoon. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts shifting to NW.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 10 at times.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 17-24. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 20-24)

Large scale: La Nina has already shown signs of weakening and is forecast to weaken further as we head into late February. This, combined with other indices, have been giving indications of a weaker / flatter Southeast ridge which has dominated our winter with mild and nearly snowless weather. Regional scale: Expecting a minor system with light rain/mix for February 20, a shot of cool air and gusty wind February 21, then watching the February 22-24 period for a larger low pressure impact with a variety of precipitation possible, with the obvious monitoring and fine-tuning to come.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 25 – MARCH 1)

As we head down the home stretch of February and reach March, the shift in weather pattern should be more evident with temperatures, while variable, less persistently mild and much closer to seasonal normals for this time of year, along with 1 or 2 storm systems to potential threaten, including the chance of frozen precipitation being involved. Yes, it’s still winter, and will still be winter when we reach the start of March too…

104 thoughts on “Wednesday February 15 2023 Forecast (7:25AM)”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Nice explanations of the big picture features that offer potential changes in the medium and long range.

  2. I’m seeing 82F, 83F, 85F and perhaps 86F next Mon – Thurs in south Florida while it turns potentially colder and snowier here.

    I just might take a part time job down there and start retirement a bit earlier than planned. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  3. Thanks TK. While I have been hoping that the current mild weather would continue, I have a question on the potential upcoming pattern change. Will temps simply return to more climatological norms (not bad considering it will almost be March) or do you see a period of more serious cold? Also any thoughts on the amount of snow?

    Thanks again.

    1. Near to below normal.

      Not sure on snow amounts. Can’t call for those until 48-60 hours before and event, not weeks in advance.

      1. Thanks. I understand about the snow but was just thinking in broad terms. Is early March average temp in Boston in the low 40s?

        1. Yes.

          Well, the pattern is such that we can run above normal in snowfall over a period of several weeks.

    1. I am definitely convinced now that we will get additional snow before “winter” ends, maybe even once spring begins. Good discussion above! 🙂

    1. Never mind second photo. I thought daughter posted that as it was right above her name but it was a friend Just the porch is our home.

      1. No but good guess. The ad would lead you to believe that. I’m thinking JJ and Mark might recognize it. My son did only because he is often in the area of the bridge

    2. I wish I could remember but I remembered some time ago chronicle did a piece on bridges & that was on of them. If I were to guess I’d say concord mass or NH.

        1. it’s in western mass not NH . I am a longtime chronicle watcher & I definitely remember seeing this

  16. Thanks TK. Agree with your thoughts – pattern change coming.

    Worth minding the Pacific also though. The West Coast looks a lot “troughier” days 8-10 and beyond than it has in some time. First strong -PNA signal in awhile. Combined with a generally +AO/NAO, I think the flow is going to be pretty rapid/zonal across the CONUS through the end of this month. You can still get eastern snow in that pattern, and March may see a change to a “blockier” pattern as we see the effects of the SSW kick in, but for now, best to be guardedly optimistic at best if looking for big snows in the Northeast…

    1. I hear what both you & Tk are saying & I posted it yesterday, but this new pattern switch as you both know is not a lock for snow & it could be the same old with the exception of the temperatures may or may not be more winter like , or it could get more into a snow pattern , time will tell .

  18. Thanks, TK!

    I was looking back on my records and there was 34″ of snow depth on this date in 2015. 14.1″ fell on February 14-15, the third of three major storms in a matter of three or so weeks.

    On February 12, 1948, there was 45″ of snow on the ground in Taunton.

    1. Yes, I remember. 🙂

      Just kidding. I would have been in a baby carriage and I don’t think my parents drove me to Taunton. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    2. I remember that well captain as it seemed like I was working every weekend doing snow removal for the Hospital. I put In major hours that winter & in one case coming in Sunday morning & staying until Wednesday morning.

      1. Best, I think, to ignore run to run low positions. Probably off a few to several hundred miles. Is completely different for that time period than the last handful of runs. Assuming its a worse run than usual, which is saying something.

        1. I understand all of this. All I am saying is it looks mighty disappointing to see that on the runs. I KNOW it will
          change as we get close. It will probably send this thing
          into Manitoba and then Hudson Bay. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. I know it’s far out but……… Wow 6 whopping inches here. Neither of my sons-in-laws’ snowblowers ever came out of storage at one of their office buildings in Ashland. Looks safe to leave them for the year

  23. We just got back from a walk around the neighborhood. It’s currently 57 deg and just wonderful feeling.

    If anyone is interested in trying to view Starlink tonight, it looks like the sky conditions will cooperate:
    https://findstarlink.com

  26. Definitely spring like today. The Canada geese and white (snow) geese have begun pairing up. From summer until about a week ago, I’d see large groups of 8-12 geese together. There are still smaller groups of 4 to 7, but increasingly I observe a cupid effect, as geese are becoming couples: Goose dating on the Esplanade, which consists mostly of pairs meandering/waddling around the lagoon and Hatch Shell area, eating grass, and doing some squawking/honking. Haven’t seen a break-up yet, but I’ll let you know when that happens.

    1. And….

      When the MJO is in positions (phases) 7, 8, and 1, chances of snowfall are increased. Chances of snowfall are decreased for MJO phases 4 and 5. In the winter of 2015, more than 90% of the Logan Airport snowfall fell during phases 7 and 8 of the MJO index.

      But that ain’t etched in stone either. We shall see. 🙂

  28. Less impressed by the models today. Not that I was ever impressed. I think we return to what we were having in December, which wasn’t anything to write home about. A few mitigated bursts of `cold,’ some cutters, and perhaps some glop here and there, which could get Boston to 10 inches in aggregate, but it would be such a paltry total as none of it was even remotely memorable. I just don’t see a pattern – granted I am not a professional and can only go by what I view in the model output and some (recent) historic precedent – conducive to sustained (just seasonable) cold or snow, even with more blocking.

    We’ll see. Things can definitely change and happen fast, as TK reminds us.

    1. Don’t give up so easily Joshua. Today’s CPC temperature outlook through March 1 is now for below normal over us, and I suspect will sink even further southward with time. 🙂

    1. Thanks Mark.

      I posted above if you have not seen it. Trapp family lodge in Stowe VT is trying to claim one of your bridges as an attraction 🙂 🙂

      1. I did see it Vicki and was going to guess it was a bridge near Stowe when I saw the Trapp Family Lodge at the top. Odd they chose the Cornwall CT covered bridge!

        1. I agree. Son as I said spends lots of time in the western part of your state so raised an eyebrow. And then did some searching. It is odd

  33. I just love Wankum as he’s a straight shooter . Yeah it might get colder eventually but we are running out of winter. His early thinking for next Wednesday looking like maybe rain.

    1. Pretty much all of us are straight shooters. 🙂

      Winter ends in late March. We passed the halfway point just under 2 weeks ago. There’s quite a bit left, actually.

      1. Agree. We are blessed with all straight shooters. My strong guess is Mikes comment was full of maybe’s and possiblys. As you know, I wish folks would share a link when they quote a met.

        1. I feel like you guys think I said something wrong lol . He’s not seeing any snow chances & said winter is running out of time , which both statements are true. He thinks the system next week to him might be looking like rain . He did not say winter was over , or it wasn’t going to snow again . I don’t know how to post a link I’m not a computer person , wish I was because I’m struggling with some computer stuff at work

          1. I don’t agree with either statement. In mid February two weeks past the mid point of winter is not “winter running out of time” We can get substantial snow in SNE into April.

            As far as snow chances, see my post below. The majority of the 50 Euro ensemble runs over the next 360 hours are showing some degree of accumulating snow in SNE. GFS and CMC have also been showing snow threats in recent runs (see my posts from yesterday).

  34. Gotta be REAL careful with temp forecast for both tomorrow & Friday. That boundary I mentioned is going to be a factor. May come in lower than forecast in some areas north of I-90 tomorrow. Warm air has less time to act on Friday as well. Frontal timing is earlier vs. later. Today, honestly, was the pick of the week for both sunshine & mild temps.

      1. Yes. Definitely the potential for a lot of warmth but that little boundary there could thwart a few areas so something to keep an eye on…

  35. I personally like Mike Wankum. He’s a fellow runner. I saw him during a marathon way back in the 1990s. He was raising funds for some kind of charity. Forever smiling, Wankum appreciated the crowd’s cheering at Cleveland Circle.

    But, I’ve never been a big fan of his forecasts. Wankum knows that winter doesn’t just end here in February. And though it’s been an absolute dud winter – and I kind of expect it to continue to be a dud – we all know what Boston and vicinity can deliver in March and April. Spring in Boston tends to be a long extension of winter. Remember April 1997. That storm and the period that ensued, which was quite cold for April, followed a warm February and a mostly warm March. Weird things do happen.

  37. A couple of tweets from today on the impending pattern change. Even Eric Fisher commented on it. Can’t say I agree with Wankum though not sure what his exact words were.

    Eric Fisher
    @ericfisher
    Feb 14

    Signs of some colder air moving in for the 2nd half of next week. We torch until then…but should bring back a late-winter feel for the end of the month. Maybe some snow, too?

    https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1625605991399038981?s=20&t=w2xAmm86zK-iKN7AptGnCg

    Tomer Burg
    @burgwx
    10h

    At long last, we have a signal for below average temperatures in the interior Northeast that appears to last for more than a fleeting moment.

    Notice the changes in the North American waveguide next week as the E US ridge axis retrogrades westward with a SE Canada trough setup:

    https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1625851468497715202?s=20&t=w2xAmm86zK-iKN7AptGnCg

    Tomer Burg
    @burgwx
    10h

    This also comes with an increase in snow potentials in the interior Northeast, as NW flow across SE Canada prevents cyclones from continuing to track well inland.

    Can’t rule some out for snow-starved I-95 through NYC… but the corridor may be too far south for this pattern.

    https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1625852048402165761?s=20&t=w2xAmm86zK-iKN7AptGnCg

  39. Run total snow from each of the 50 Euro ensembles. I believe this is through 360 hours:

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2023_02/image.png.772f2782f4ddbf465c7f56f0f3f4ca5e.png

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2023_02/image.png.51564d25d626bb37a363c500f98c4e6f.png

    There are a lot of solutions in there with substantial snow in SNE and a few with not so much. A range of solutions as you might expect but this is a way better look than we have had in a long time.

    1. This is awesome. Thank you. I saw the Starlink. Good for you to catch it. The daughter of a friend is in Iceland and just posted a photo. In my life I feel blessed to have had so much. The absolute only thing I’d wish I could see is the northern lights.

      1. My wife and I had a great view of the satellites this evening. And the bonus was that only a light jacket was needed!

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