Thursday February 16 2023 Forecast (7:14AM)

89 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 16-20)

A word of caution: You hear talk of a pattern change. Yes, the pattern is about to change, or technically is already in the process of doing so. But it’s not a flip-switch. It’s a slow process. The weather during the next 5 days will be very reflective of the pattern we’ve been in much of the winter. Mild. Lack of snow. We will get one cold shot, but it will be brief. The resultant weather from a larger scale pattern change won’t be showing up in this 5-day period, but focusing on that first, this is what we have coming up. Today will be kind of the opposite of yesterday, which started with clouds and went to sunshine. Today we start with the sun and trend cloudier. But with a nice temperature launch pad we will see a lot of readings approach and break 60 for highs. I don’t think we’ll see a lot of temperatures way into the 60s, as we have a weak boundary in the area cutting off some areas to the north from getting too warm, as well as a wind component off the water keeping the South Coast in check, so the warmest areas will be somewhat limited. But either way, the region will enjoy yet another mild winter day. Rainfall holds off until tonight, with the northward push of a frontal boundary, and then a wave of low pressure cuts across the Northeast, a bit closer than previously forecast, so the frontal boundary on Friday will be close, warm air shorter-lived, rainfall sooner, and temperature fall ready to take place starting at midday and onward through afternoon and evening. For the most part, any moisture will be out of here before it’s cold enough to snow. One possible exception is southern NH which may catch a few snow showers on the back side of departing low pressure as the front pulls offshore during Friday afternoon. I do expect a gusty wind to dry the ground off for the most part before temperatures fall well below freezing Friday evening, but any areas that remain wet will quickly freeze over, so keep that in mind if driving or walking on any untreated surfaces. We have a dry weekend ahead as high pressure approaches Saturday, and moves just to the south of the region Saturday night and eventually off the Atlantic Coast by later Sunday. Saturday will be a breezy and seasonably cold day, with moderating temperatures and less wind Sunday. A low pressure disturbance will approach from the west later Sunday night into Monday, igniting a weak secondary low over or just east of our region during Monday. This won’t be a big deal for us, just a weaker system with some unsettled weather in the form of rain showers with air on the mild side.

TODAY: Partly sunny early then mainly cloudy. Late-day rain possible. Highs 57-64, coolest in southern NH and the northern half of central and eastern MA, warmest southern interior MA, northeastern CT, and northern RI, with highs of 50-57 South Coast. Wind SW-S up to 10 MPH may shift to SE or E for a while in areas near and north of I-90.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely evening. Lows 50-57. Wind S-SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mainly cloudy through midday including a period of rain showers, possibly heavy, from west to east across the region. Sun/cloud mix thereafter but a brief snow shower possible parts of southern NH, maybe clipping northeastern MA. Highs 55-62 morning, then falling temperature afternoon. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts shifting to NW.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 10 at times.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 17-24. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 43-50. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 21-25)

Gradual impact of pattern change starts to show up during this period. Fair/breezy/cool to start and probably returning at the end of the period. Between a complex low pressure system moves through from west to east, probably as mainly rain for our area, but can’t rule out a colder trend and some mix/snow involved before the system is finished impacting the area. Southeast ridge weakens and colder air to north and northwest is closer.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 26 – MARCH 2)

Newer weather pattern more evident during this period with a couple of low pressure areas potentially impacting the region with a variety of precipitation including frozen stuff, and an overall colder temperature regime. Details to be worked out in the days ahead.

89 thoughts on “Thursday February 16 2023 Forecast (7:14AM)”

  1. FYI: Three more decent Starlink passes will occur Friday, Saturday, and Sunday evenings. We may have to contend with clouds for part of the region Friday, depending on how much lingers behind the front. I think Saturday’s is clear-sailing. Sunday’s pass may be threatened by clouds associated with the approach of the system slated to impact the region on Monday, so that’s uncertain in terms of “viewability”.

  6. 51 so far here in JP. How high will it go? We shall find out.

    I am guessing 65 here. 🙂 No Snow, No Frozen ground.
    Frankly, I wonder if 70 is in play.

    Wankum last night said 62 for Boston and that seems in line with TK’s thinking. We’ll know this afternoon. 🙂

  14. Evidence that pattern change is already underway…

    Friday low further east and south. Models initially blew this big time.

    Northern ski areas have a gift coming.

  17. Read earlier today that an inversion layer will help keep winds a bit in check tomorrow. How does this form and is it effective?

  25. Thanks TK.

    66F here near Hartford with filtered sun. Didn’t even bother wearing a jacket to work today.

    Chester CT now coming in with 70. Westerly and Newport RI under sunny skies now are now 68 and I am seeing 69 on the Vineyard.

    This BS weather can’t end soon enough! 🙂

  26. 00z Euro still much colder than the past couple GFS runs for next week.

    Next Wed (R/S line just NW of Boston):

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023021600&fh=162&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Next Thurs (all snow/frozen event):

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023021600&fh=186&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Next Sunday (a grazer with snow for southern areas):

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023021600&fh=240&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    You can see the trend with each progressive system tracking further south as the Southeast ridge disintegrates.

    We’ll see if the 12z run holds serve.

  30. Ryan Hanrahan
    @ryanhanrahan
    31m

    68F is the high today at Bridgeport/Sikorsky which breaks the all-time February record of 67F last hit in 2022!

  35. The sparrows and starlings are extraordinarily noisy and active. I don’t think they’re buying what the European model is selling. In their chirping, I can hear lots of chatter about the Southeast ridge.

    2. We were just commenting on our lack of birds. I put a seed bell out two weeks ago and not one bird has touched it. Something is wrong.

        1. How do people get emojis in here? I do what I do everywhere else and it does not work. I even tried copying one from another document and that didn’t work!

          Here is my enrage face:

          1. Some iPad emojis work ❤️️☁️️☀️️⛅️⛈️⛄️☃️❄️️️️☔️☂️️

            There are a ton above. My guess only a few will work.

            🙄

            There are WP emojis. One second, I’ll find the link. TKs tech person should be able to add a widget that allows more.

              1. Thanks Vicki. I did exactly what it says to do for Windows.

                Back in the old days, we didn’t have to say “In case you missed it, that was supposed to be funny.”

                😉 🙄

  37. Brief change of topic, though there is an indirect relationship to meteorological forecasting. As an economist I follow trends in the economy, mostly, but sometimes in the stock market. I’ve done this for 35 years. Unlike 35 years ago, the disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street is massive today. And this makes predictions in the stock market extraordinarily difficult. Every model does poorly, in my opinion, because you the inputs no longer correlate to the output. Wall Street is addicted to low interest rates, and so it fears higher interest rates more than anything else; even if the fundamentals of the economy show signs of health and robustness!

    Try understanding today’s headline (hint; you can’t – there’s no logic to it, unless you’re single-mindedly obsessed with cheap money – low interest rates):

    “Stocks fell Thursday after another hot inflation report, and a decline in jobless claims, showed the economy is holding up amid the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes.”

    By the way, inflation IS an issue. I’m not downplaying that. But, our inflation in the U.S. is MUCH lower than Europe’s and elsewhere. Our dollar is very strong (too strong, in my opinion, as this harms our exports). Our economy is very resilient, in terms of GDP growth and employment.

      1. Ironically I’ve seen 2 people drop their eggs loading their car outside 2 different grocery stores in the last 2 weeks. I guess it’s sticker shock…………………

      2. My kids are struggling with groceries. As are most of us. Their weekly bill with no fluff is between 300-400. I’m up to a fair amount over 100 for just me when it was 60-70/week.

        1. It’s terrible. That “surf & turf” joke I made on FB earlier is actually quite true. I’m very lucky in that I get a free lunch at work 5 days a week. That makes a huge difference. 🙂

  38. Chance of a record-tie tomorrow in a few spots, but I think most of tomorrow’s record highs are safe.

    I’m not in agreement with some of my colleagues on how warm it gets this time. 🙂

    Boston’s record high for February 17 is 61 set twice, in 1981 and 2022. I’ve noticed some media is neglecting to mention the 1981 and only saying it happened last year. But that’s not correct. It happened both years. I’m a believer that you list ALL the dates it happened, not just the most recent one. Data must be complete and accurate as possible. The science end of it has to be respected. Tomorrow I give them a 59.

    FYI: Providence has a record high of 66 set in 1981 for February 17. Last year’s high was only 62 there, so it was well off the record. I think tomorrow they miss the record high by about 10 degrees with a high of 56. Not even close.

    FYI #2: Few people remember this most likely (I most certainly do) but February 1981 was a very “nothing” month as far as winter goes. Boston had only 1.9 inch of snow for the month, and temps across the region were about 5 to 10 degrees ABOVE NORMAL for the month, including record high temps on February 18 of 66 at Boston, 68 at Hartford, and 72 at Providence!!

    1. I’m pretty sure no changes have been made to the model since the bad upgrade. I still don’t pay attention to it that much – the ensembles a tiny bit more than the operational but still not much there either.

      I have no scientific reason to put any stock into it until they fix the mistakes they made. Fair assessment. 🙂

    2. That is legitimately one of the funniest snow maps I’ve ever seen. We all know it won’t happen like that, but the coincidental outcome of storm tracks to create that exact distribution is too funny. There would be heads exploding here 😛

  42. I heard earlier he called 23 World Series working for CBS ABC and FOX. He even called NY Yankees games for a few years on FOX 5 NY.

  43. I know this is not weather related. It it is our city and it disgusts me.

    The Wu administration on Thursday released new outdoor dining guidelines for neighborhoods across the city, including a sharp cutback in the North End.

    From Boston Globe “While restaurants in most of Boston will be allowed to set up tables both on sidewalks and in parking spaces after submitting engineering plans and paying a fee, restaurants in the North End will be limited to sidewalks only, which would amount to a substantial reduction in potential outdoor seating for many establishments.”

    1. I can understand that. Most streets in the North End are so narrow that if you fill them with tables there will be either no lane for cars to pass or you have to eliminate a parking lane leaving no parking for residents or patrons of the restaurants.

      1. I was thinking about that. But I do think with some effort a plan can be set. I don’t agree with charging…in the north end or anywhere. The restaurants are one of the biggest draws to the area that depends in good part on tourism and they are struggling.

        1. Yes I don’t agree with the city charging business owners to have outdoor seating.

          I just think the North End is a bit dicier area to do it. Perhaps taking the parking lanes on Hanover Street which is a wider two lane roadway and has a ton of restaurants but some of those side streets are tough to shut down. You also need to maintain a wide enough space for emergency vehicles/fire apparatus to get through.

          1. Very good points. The charging is what bothers me most. Your suggestion about Hanover makes sense. They seemed to be able to make it work in the summer of 2020

  44. Details aside, that was a fun 18z GFS run. Loaded with potential the second half of the run.

    I think the threat middle of next week is going down the tubes but after that looks like the SE ridge gets squashed. Pattern change is a gradual process as TK has been saying.

  45. Not thrilled with Wu’s decision, either.

    Just thinking back to my visit to Amsterdam last month. There are hardly any cars anymore in the inner city, an area that has even narrower streets than the North End. You can park about a mile from the inner city area, if you want to drive. Or, take public transportation. Or walk. Or bike. In early January, mind you, almost all the restaurants in the area were full (some jam-packed) inside and outside (there were some heaters going at some establishments). Crowded, yes. Almost too crowded. But a lot of fun to not have to contend with cars – though you do deal with a massive number of bikes.

    Boston is an eminently walkable city, with fair public transit, certainly better than many other U.S. cities. It’s doable to have outdoor dining everywhere, in my opinion. And also without large fees. In Amsterdam many of the restaurants aren’t charged anything for having outdoor seating, which is technically a public space anyway!

      1. The cost is $7500 fee and $485/month for parking. They could shut down the area for driving. Maybe only on weekends. If they could successfully close Rome to all driving on Sundays in the 1970s, I’m betting they could one up with a solution that works for all.

    1. Southwest Hartford County. The lilies in my landscaping beds in front of the house are showing growth as well. Ridiculous.

  47. No sign of any early blooms in my neighborhood yet.

    The snow pile at my brother’s house, which was never that large this season so far, is nearly melted, but still about 2 feet by 1 foot. I think it may vanish before my other brother and I ended up rebuilding it into March – to what degree, unknown. This would not be the first time this has happened since the house was purchased in the late 1980s.

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