Wednesday February 22 2023 Forecast (7:23AM)

113 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 22-26)

Take a breath. The sun shines this morning for a while, but we have a lot of “weather” on the way and many details to pin down in the coming days, and we get to work quickly. After a small area of high pressure departs, clouds come racing in ahead of a warm front, parented by an approaching low pressure area. While the surface front never has a chance to get very far north into New England – maybe just inland of the South Coast early Thursday, it warms significantly above us, so that precipitation that starts off as snow for much of the region this evening (except mix/rain South Coast) turns to sleet and rain, but that rain will be freezing rain where surface temperatures are cold enough, especially west and north of I-95. While the main area of precipitation exits with the initial low pressure wave moving along or just south of the South Coast early on Thursday, the surface boundary will actually sink southward and temperatures trend downward during the day. Low level moisture behind that low pressure wave means that frozen drizzle and freezing drizzle is possible anywhere the temperature is below the freezing point – which will be pretty much everywhere except the immediate coastline, so watch for slick travel / walking on untreated surfaces even without much precipitation occurring during Thursday, especially if it’s freezing drizzle which would produce a glaze (where frozen drizzle would not as it is essentially miniature sleet. A second low pressure wave comes along Thursday evening and night with another episode or two of precipitation, likely freezing rain and/or sleet except maybe just rain if temperatures hang above freezing near the coast. But it’s wise to plan for slick spot potential even here if temperatures are marginal because just a degree or two can make a difference between your foot meeting a wet stairway/walkway or an icy one. After wave number 2 exits, an arctic cold front goes through on Friday, maybe with a snow shower or two, and like Thursday, the temperature drops during the day, but more dramatically, along with an increasing northwesterly wind. This cold shot peaks Friday night, similar in timing but far less in magnitude than the one just 2 weeks prior. However, it’s still enough that wind chills will plunge to below zero with air temperatures getting into the single digits, so if you do have Friday night outdoor plans, be ready for that. Saturday will be a cold day as well, but with a bit less wind, and at least some sun, higher in angle this time of year, so it won’t feel as cold as the same air mass would in January. Some instability may help to produce a few passing snow showers that day. Sunday, temperatures moderate a little, but a clipper-type low pressure system moves quickly in and through the area during the afternoon and evening with a period of wintry precipitation – mostly snow it appears, but warm enough for some sleet and rain toward the South Coast, depending on the specific temperature profile for exact precip-type. Will fine-tune the Sunday details over the next few days…

TODAY: Sunny start, cloudy finish. Highs 36-43. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow/sleet/ice/rain arrives early, tapers toward dawn. Snow/sleet accumulation of up to 1 inch I-95 belt, up to 2 inches north central MA to southwestern NH, and some icing conditions away from coastline. Lows 28-35. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Areas of frozen drizzle and freezing drizzle (maybe not freezing along the shoreline). Temperatures fall slightly to 26-33. Wind NE to N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. A period of sleet and freezing rain, maybe just rain immediate coast, and may mix with snow higher elevations southwestern NH to north central MA with a minor accumulation (coating). Temperatures rise slightly to 28-35. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny with scattered to isolated snow showers. Temperatures steady 27-34 early, then falling to 15-22 by late-day. Wind N-NW increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 5-12. Wind NW 15-25 MPH early, diminishing overnight. Wind chill below zero especially evening.

SATURDAY: Sunniest early, then lots of clouds with intervals of sunshine. Scattered snow showers midday-afternoon. Highs 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-22. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Becoming mostly cloudy. Chance of snow/mix/rain midday on. Highs 30-37. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 27 – MARCH 3)

Active pattern – watching low pressure areas to bring potential wintry precipitation threats around February 28 and March 2. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 4-8)

Additional unsettled weather including wintry precipitation opportunities around March 4 and March 6-7. Temperatures near to below normal.

113 thoughts on “Wednesday February 22 2023 Forecast (7:23AM)”

    1. There may be a small area around Worcester County that may experience that but I think for the most part we will escape it.

    1. Thanks Vicki. Seems like he has ice in some metro west but emphasizes Worcester west. Same channel this morning Cindy focused only on areas farther west. With just an inch of snow maybe I am looking for things to worry about.

      1. Sure seems that way. Dips down to here I’m thinking more toward Sutton Center which tends to be just that much colder than here but I plan to leave everything plugged in and add some zip bags with ice to the freezer

    2. So, that Thursday afternoon/evening commute IF there’s some freezing fog/mist around is a concern, I would think.

    1. And TK’s response 🙂

      Woods Hill Weather
      FEBRUARY 22, 2023 AT 7:26 AM
      Apparently the Euro got a hold of my bag of conversation hearts and ate the whole thing……………..

  14. Just your typical day in Southern CA in the outskirts of Los Angeles. WxWatcher, I want to see some pictures! You wont have to go very far..

    Michael Steinberg
    @MichaelWX18
    9h

    I have NEVER seen this before. A blizzard warning has been issued for the mountains around #LosAngeles and Ventura County. Up to 7 FEET possible at the highest elevations. 2-5 feet above 4,000 feet likely. Incredible. #CAwx #snow #wxtwitter

    https://twitter.com/MichaelWX18/status/1628273851917553664?s=20

    1. NWS Los Angeles
      @NWSLosAngeles
      5h

      This is not our first BLIZZARD WARNING ever issued. This is the first since VTEC coding was implemented in 2006.

  15. Meanwhile the Western trough helping to keep a ridge in the Southeast, and the long stretch of mild and dry weather combined with late winter sun angle is going to result in the fall of some all time record warm temps for February in the Southeast tomorrow.

    #TripleDipLaNina

  18. 12z GFS, 8am Thursday Worcester and Merrimack Valley, 32F

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfct-imp&rh=2023022212&fh=24&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    5pm Thursday, Worcester and Merrimack Valley, 20F. Logan @32F.

    Same theme as 3km NAM.

    TK has this temp fall in his forecast. I hope the general public is more focused on this than whether one receives any snow and how much because the freezing drizzle/freezing mist threat tomorrow is a much bigger road threat than any brief snow this evening.

  20. 11am, 81F with a 65F dew point.

    Headed out to mini golf with my daughter.

    She has, let’s say, an interesting way of counting her shots. Some rather fuzzy math.

    Still going to try to win. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  24. 12z CMC looks similar to the Euro for early next week. Coastal redevelopment locks in the cold air and results in an all snow event for much of MA. There is a changeover to mix in CT and RI after a heavy thump of snow:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023022212&fh=144&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    12z GFS is a bit further north and warmer with snow to mix to rain for most:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023022212&fh=138&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    1. Well, at least it looks like there is some action down the road.
      We shall see how much snow is actually realized.
      It will be most interesting to see what the Euro has to say.

      1. There are smaller additional threats showing up on the models as well that I didnt post. Could it be a March to remember? We’ll see. Good chance March ends up the snowiest month of the winter.

        That said, how ironic would it be if the Tuesday storm happens on 2/28 and stays all snow? We could end up with average snow on the month for February despite it being one of the warmest February’s in history.

      1. Every model has this system right now. They just vary on whether it is an all snow or snow to mix/rain situation.

        Euro, CMC, ICON and UKMET are all pretty similar and deliver significant snow. GFS is warmest.

  30. 12z Euro holds serve with the snowstorm threat early next week and it is a CRUSH JOB. Really wishing this wasnt still 6 days out!

    1. Euro has it snowing for nearly 30 HOURS starting Monday at midnight and ending Wednesday morning.

      7AM Tuesday:

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023022212&fh=144&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      7PM Tuesday:

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023022212&fh=156&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      1AM Wednesday (really winding up):

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023022212&fh=162&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  35. Before everyone gets all wound up about a potential storm on Tuesday, I will remind you that just 3 days ago, the 00z runs of both the GFS and ECMWF had the storm tonight/Thursday with widespread 6-10″ north of the Mass Pike.

    1. It’s been a miserable Winter, at least let is enjoy the possibility . And we ALL know what these models can do.

    2. Been so long since I’ve seen model runs like this inside of 6 days, it’s hard not to be intrigued. But yes, very good advice and going to keep expectations “tempered” for now…

  36. some pretty heavy snow falling out bt Binghamton, ny. of course that is shown on my radar app. provably some wicked sleet falling.

  37. Hospital visit with Mom to my brother.

    I’ll update later.

    Advance hint: don’t put too much stock in the “big hit” scenario.

  38. TK, best wishes to your brother, you and your family.

    Regarding snow, I think 2 inches would count as a big hit this season! So, if 2 inches is in the cards, say, on Sunday or Tuesday, I’ll take it so long as it isn’t washed away immediately.

  42. Wouldn’t it be something if the snow train showing up on the models happens, and Boston winds up with, say, average snowfall for the season. I’m very doubtful this will happen. But, one never knows.

  46. So all models now in agreement on a major snowstorm at 5-6 days out…..

    What could possibly go wrong?? 🙂

  48. 18z GEFS has come south for early next week as well. Good ensemble support for what the operational runs are selling.

  49. Briefly snowed here now just raining. I am hoping we get some snow early next week. It always seems when guidance forecasts a major snow storm 5-6 days out more often than not it doesn’t happen.

  50. To temper expectations just a little….384 hour Ensemble Mean snowfall numbers for BOS :

    18z GFS 15.3″
    12z ECMWF 15.4″
    12z CMC 14.6″

    A far cry from what the operational models are spitting out.

    2. That is actually not too shabby for an ensemble mean snow forecast.

      What I find most impressive right now is the relative consistency amongst the models in the overall pattern the next couple of weeks, timing and intensity of storm threats, and cumulative snowfall numbers.

      That doesnt mean they won’t all see something in the next several days and trend in a different direction, but they are general agreement at this point in an active pattern with numerous winter weather threats over the next couple weeks and potentially beyond. Cant ask for more at this point the way things have gone this winter.

  53. 00z GFS, CMC, and Icon all maintaining the theme of a major snowstorm for SNE early next week. All three are virtually unchanged from 18z.

    3. 00z GFS/CMC Ensemble means maintaining the theme of a light to moderate snowstorm for SNE early next week, significantly less then the operational runs.

  54. In terms of the next 2-4 weeks for SNE… Definitely not the same pattern as 2015, and the totals will absolutely not match that. But perhaps it could feel like a mini version 😉

  56. It’s a bit colder than the late night forecast predicted. 32F here in Boston. I have to head out – taking the train to Providence for a conference – and it will likely be a slippery walk.

    Take care, everyone.

    Next week looks interesting, but I’m not counting on anything. The only thing that’s a lock is that we’re in for what this season amounts to a sustained period of colder than normal temperatures. After the cold air `blast’ this weekend, temps do not really rebound all that much. That’s the big pattern change TK has been alluding to for weeks.

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