Friday February 24 2023 Forecast (7:11AM)

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COMMENTARY

These final 5 days of February will remind many people why you don’t “call winter off” early. None of us have the “authority” to do that, based on the winter so far. Our individual perceptions may differ, but the fact remains, winter doesn’t end before it ends, and even the best forecasters can’t see far enough into the future to guarantee such a silly notion beyond a week or so, let alone a couple months. We best leave that to mother nature to decide. She’s been doing a pretty decent job at it since before we around watching. šŸ˜‰

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 24-28)

Speaking of the final 5 days of February. Here they come! And they start out fairly harsh. Yesterday’s messy system was followed by a brief shower of freezing rain for many areas last night, even with thunder in some areas! A quick coating of glaze occurred with the passage of these where it was cold enough, and many areas have icy ground to start the day. We did see a bit of a temperature rise overnight though, helping to loosen up the ice and melt it a bit in many portions of the I-95 belt and southeastward, but off to the northwest it has stayed colder. The warmest part of the day is now, and soon, as a cold front goes by, the temperature will fall during the day, into the 20s in areas that are in the 30s, and through the 20s in areas that are already in the 20s, along with a pretty decent wind. Other than a brief snow shower possible with the front’s passing, expect dry weather during today. Tonight’s a cold one – single digit low temperature for most along with below zero wind chill, so bundle up for biting air and beware again of icy areas underfoot! The weekend features ok weather, but slightly unsettled. While it’s coldest Saturday and a bit milder Sunday, both days carry precipitation chances – with a few afternoon snow shower possible as a disturbance moves through the region Saturday afternoon, and a few snow showers (maybe rain showers toward the South Coast) on Sunday afternoon as a weak low pressure system moves quickly through the region. Then our attention turns to the potential winter storm early next week. Monday is “set-up” day behind the Sunday system as high pressure builds in with dry, chilly weather but increasing clouds. We’ve seen our guidance go from painting a picture of a blockbuster snow to a more “ordinary” one during the last several runs regarding the Monday night / Tuesday threat. I will say that it is the best opportunity we’ve had so far this winter of widespread snowfall, but that we still have some details to work out. An initial low is likely to move somewhere into the Great Lakes region, and its elongation and redevelopment details are going to determine what we end up with. There are still several scenarios on the table regarding the detailed outcome, so for now the wording for the day-5 forecast will be generic, and there will be a long period of fine tuning ahead over the next few days…

TODAY: Early to mid morning clouds with a passing snow shower possible, then mostly sunny. Highs 28-35 early, then falling into and through the 20s. Wind NW increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 3-10. Wind NW 15-25 MPH early, diminishing overnight. Wind chill below zero especially evening.

SATURDAY: Sunniest early, then lots of clouds with intervals of sunshine. Scattered snow showers midday-afternoon. Highs 21-28. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 10-17 evening, may rise slightly overnight. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Becoming mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers north, mix/rain shower south in the afternoon. Highs 32-39. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow arrives. Lows 22-29. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast. Good chance of snow, but may be mixed precipitation to the south. Highs 30-37. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 1-5)

Active pattern ā€“ watching low pressure areas to bring potential wintry precipitation threats March 2 and 4. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 6-10)

Additional unsettled weather including another precipitation threat around the March 6-8 window. Temperatures near to below normal.

121 thoughts on “Friday February 24 2023 Forecast (7:11AM)”

  2. TK, thank you and hope family is well.

    Went for my shore walk and didn’t walk 10 feet before I quit. so SLIPPERY out there! Went to supermarket from there and parking lot was the same. Really icy.

  4. Thanks TK.

    Like the look for Monday for a moderate event. 6-10 area wide and a few pockets over. The flow is too flat for anything major. Usual suspects, fluffier snow out in Retracs area and maybe someone in eastern mass gets in a few heavy bands.

    1. Moderate, yes. 6-10 might be a tad generous. We shall see. šŸ™‚

      3-6 , perhaps 4-8 might be more in line. Can’t wait for each model run now.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    NOT impressed by Tuesday’s system. As alluded to above, the snow totals keep going down. CMC and UKMET have “about” 3 inches. The Euro maybe 6 or 7 and that is 10:1. Even the GFS is about 9.

    To me, this is looking more and more like a 3-6 inch type event.
    A ho-hum snow event, But rather significant for this particular Winter. We shall see as it get closer and of course after it has left.

    To me, it Just doesn’t appear to be a classic set up for a big SNE snow storm. Perhaps big in terms of this year only. šŸ™‚

  8. Since weā€™re having a little fun above, 2-4 in Boston area and itā€™s suburbs, 1-3 SE Mass, 3-5 Merrimack valley and central mass, 4-7 elevated areas. All of this accumulating late Monday night to about 8-9am Tuesday.

    Snow is in the air Tuesday, but it doesnā€™t accumulate. If thereā€™s enough precip left Tuesday after sundown, maybe a coating to 1-2 inch topping.

  10. I suggest people check the projected temps on the models starting at 15z Tuesday and I think youā€™ll see why it may not be wise to count any of the daytime snow for accumulation Tuesday. Every temp run Iā€™ve looked at is running 32-36F during daylight hrs, with the 32F reserved for Worcester and other elevated areas. Boston and suburbs projected at 34-36F during midday thru mid afternoon.

    2. Yes excellent points, however, I always say it depends on intensity. Good intensity overcomes the temps and the sun angle. šŸ™‚

      NOT that I am saying the intensity will be such on Tuesday to overcome it. So far, I see no signs of any overwhelming intensity.

      I see a Light to occasionally moderate snowfall rate.
      I do NOT foresee any HEAVY snow at this time.
      Of course things “could” change, but so far, I am NOT seeing it.

      Just my lousy 2 cents.

          1. Oh but there is. Else this system would run straight up into Canada and we’d have some snow and a changeover to rain.

  11. Donā€™t forget the ā€œinfamousā€ possibility of mixing with or changing to rain near the coast. Weā€™re not exactly going to have a true cold high to the north, correct?

    1. We are, but it won’t be in an optimal position.

      Some have referred to this as a classic setup. It will not be. It’ll be closer in set up to the system we just had. NOTE: That doesn’t translate into identical results. Just synoptic talk.

  12. Sure is a beautiful winter day in Natickā€”everything is snow covered, bright sunshine, much more enjoyable to me than the 85 degree days in Florida earlier this week

    1. Sure is beautiful I am driving daughter to the dr. Inn my way to pick her up, I came up over Sutton Rd in Uxbridge. I think it was Mark whose child had a soccer game there. Itā€™s an area that looks out over valleys. To the south ish the sky was black. The sun from the north ish shining on the ice covered trees was breathtaking

    1. This is not Colorado or Utah or the CA Sierra. it is Arizona, a mere 2 hours drive North of Phoenix. I find this to be fascinating.

      This area averages 260 inches per year, so they have reached their seasonal average already. The base is at 9,500 feet, so elevation sure does help. šŸ™‚

      1. Did you see what is happening a few miles outside of San Diego in the San Bernadino Mountains? NWS San Diego issued their first ever blizzard warning there along with 3-5 feet of snow projected. Crazy!

        1. Yeah, I know. INSANE!!!

          I am trying to get the numbers for Mr. Baldy.
          in the San Gabriel Mountains all located in
          Los Angeles County.

          The highest peak is Mt. San Antonio at 10,069 feet
          and is prominently visible in many Los Angeles
          Winter photos.

          I viewed their website and saw this. Pretty funny!

          https://ibb.co/vkTz8nD

  16. Thanks TK.

    Regardless of total snow amounts for Tuesday, it does appear the snow will come down hard for several hours in the initial thump Monday night. Wouldnt be surprised to see some 1″ per hour snows for awhile which would be fun.

    Also – people should not let their guard down on Thursday either. CMC and now the Euro have a potent wave coming through and passing to our SE with a period of heavy snow. GFS has it too but is further north with mostly rain/mix.

    Next Saturday bears watching as well…appears we will be on the cold side of that system if we can get it to come far enough north and not miss out to sea.

    Finally a more interesting pattern!

    1. Agree, more interesting by a long shot.
      I just “wish” we could squeeze a BIGGIE before the pattern
      reverts to Blah blah blah…..

      1. That SE ridge is too close for comfort as it is. Itā€™s a wonder the DC cherry blossoms havenā€™t popped out by now. I assume that ridge will return whenever our new ā€œcold & stormyā€ breaks down.

      2. We are finally getting the blocking we need on the Atlantic side but the Pacific is still not cooperating. If we can get that -PNA to let up in combination with this blocking, we would have a west coast ridge/east coast trough and be in business for a more classic east coast snowstorm. Until then we will make due with what we have. Or climatology runs out on us, whichever happens first.

  17. 12Z GFS Kuchera Snow Amounts for Overnight Monday into Tuesday. Nice, but NOT impressive by any Stretch.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023022412&fh=108&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    10:1 snow by comparison

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023022412&fh=108&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Gives me an idea of how much snow will be falling compared to what may actually accumulate (Kuchera and even sometimes Kuchera is too high)

    Snow Depth Change

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snodpc_acc-imp&rh=2023022412&fh=108&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Ouch!!! That was ugly!!!

  20. Yeah this was never going to be a blockbuster. Good enough pattern but not perfect. A nice medium storm, my kids are praying. 1 is in private now and they donā€™t close as easily as BPS so the younger one might luck out.

    1. 1-2 hr delays I hope Tuesday.

      Sunrise is back to 6:25 ish. By 8:30 to 9:30 with treatment, Iā€™m hoping the roads will be ok.

      Canā€™t have a snow day now after making it this far without one !! šŸ™‚ šŸ™‚ šŸ™‚

  21. Philip, some cherry blossoms have already appeared in DC. I noted this last week. Also, despite a cooler week ahead in the Netherlands (not cold by any stretch, but cooler than it’s been), their spring began several weeks ago.

    SNE is quite different climatologically, from both DC and the Netherlands, ESPECIALLY in late winter and early/mid spring. What’s happening now, with cold here and mild to warm temps yesterday from Philadelphia to points south, isn’t unprecedented at all. I’ve experienced it many times, including several years in the late 90s, when I worked in Philly and commuted back and forth to Boston 20 times a year. Philadelphia’s spring tends to be much earlier than Boston’s, and I’m not just talking 10 days. Np, it’s often 4 weeks ahead. The Netherlands is also 4 weeks ahead of Boston, and some years even 6 weeks or more ahead. There are plenty of meteorological factors involved which all play a role.

  22. While I was in Fort Lauderdale, I did check out their public school calendar and ahem, any job openings šŸ™‚

    They plan into their schedule 5 hurricane days for those days lost from August thru November. One per month. My guess is if they donā€™t need them, itā€™s a day off.

  23. Now that storm in the 4th. Snowlovers will need a further southeast track, but that one seems to have more cold polar air to work with lurking just to the north.

      1. For now. But the high to the north and itā€™s supply of cold air is encouraging. If it plays out right, then we can realize a lot more snow even during daytime.

    1. I think the models are honing in on the timing and Tuesdayā€™s temps. I still think an advisory level snow is in play on the front end until daytime brightness and aoa 32F temps arrive tues morning.

      1. If the INTENSITY is there, any daytime/temperature issues should be counteracted although accumulations will also be tempered somewhat. As long as itā€™s an all snow event, whatever sticks or doesnā€™t is fine with me. The way this winter has been, we can not be too choosy.

    1. A week from tomorrow looks to be the most interesting event
      of the entire Winter. Now we just have to watch it all
      fall apart in front of us! šŸ™‚

  32. 12Z EURO is Absolutely PATHETIC for early next week.

    I have just about had enough already!

    PUTRID!!!()!@*(#*)(!*@()#*!)(@*#)(!*@)(#*)!(*#)(!*)(#@

  33. Remember where the Monday/Tuesday storm is right now (I say as the rain pounds against my windows). Those convective and topographic interactions I mentioned yesterday are starting to happen and will likely disrupt (or perhaps, already have disrupted) the relatively harmonious model consistency of the past few days. Best bet is to stay the course though, would continue to favor at least a solid moderate snowstorm for much of SNE early next weekā€¦

    https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=continental-w_conus-08-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

    Focusing on anything beyond that first system is a foolā€™s errand though.

    1. True, but what are we to do with such a pathetic Winter thus far.
      We will look ahead,, knowing full well what crap can happen.

      I am hoping for surprise extra intensity for the system early next week. šŸ™‚

      2. Hahahaha always enjoy your posts Mark. FWIW, I find you have a very savvy knowledge of the weather ā€œsocial sphereā€ šŸ™‚

  35. Whatever happens with the Tuesday system (3ā€ or 12ā€+), school will definitely be cancelled. Lock that in.

  36. Thanks, TK:

    We had intense thunderstorm activity seven years ago tonight. My area had multiple, consecutive STWs during the early morning hours of February 25, 2016.

  37. BULLETIN ā€“ IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
    240 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016

    The National Weather Service in taunton has issued a

    * severe thunderstorm warning forā€¦
    northwestern bristol county in southeastern massachusettsā€¦
    west central essex county in northeastern massachusettsā€¦
    western norfolk county in eastern massachusettsā€¦
    southeastern worcester county in central massachusettsā€¦
    middlesex county in northeastern massachusettsā€¦

    * until 330 AM EST

    * at 239 AM EST, doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm
    capable of producing destructive winds in excess of 70 mph. this
    storm was located over upton, or near milford, and was moving
    northeast at 115 mph.

    2. “and was moving northeast at 115 mph.”

      That was the most amazing thing about those storms – how fast they were moving, which added to the wind damage.

    1. I’m sure you never knew that Rick Derringer was actually singing about Kuchera snow calculations when he made that song.

  40. I remember seeing Mount Baldy mentioned the other day here. Thatā€™s quite literally in my backyard. I hope to hike it this summer, but itā€™s increasingly probable it wonā€™t melt out this year (which would be extremely unusual in the modern era). And I wouldnā€™t attempt it if itā€™s snow-covered; unfortunately, thereā€™ve been multiple fatalities on it this winter so far, including the British actor Julian Sands. Hereā€™s the forecast for the summit area; the storm total near the top will probably be near to above 100ā€.

    https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-117.59811401367188&lat=34.268713959766785#.Y_kgUxaIYWM

    1. It’s fascinating to me that weather like this can happen literally a few miles north of the LA basin where hundreds of thousands of people live.

      1. Really is. Which is part of why that mountain has a high death toll associated with it among hikers. Itā€™s easily accessible to millions of people, and certainly ā€œdoableā€ enough for a good portion of the population to attempt it. But that overlap of mass accessibility with the dangers of operating at a 10,000 ft elevation (especially when even a little snow is involved) can be a problemā€¦

        Also underscores that forecasting for this region is by no means easy! Elevation is a constant battle here.

    2. Thank you WxWatcher. Quite the forecast for sure!

      I can’t get one of their web cams to come in. They’re probably knocked out.

  42. I’ve always thought that Kuchera (and Death Bands) should be on tour with Pantera, Slayer and Megadeth! šŸ™‚

  43. 18 Z NAM has the redevelopment taking shape at 84 hours.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2023022418&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Also, looks like a favorable 500 MB set up.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=500wh&rh=2023022418&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    However, my concern here is that the coastal tracks too close to the coast OR even inland a bit. So, I am not sure on this one. It looks like it could be a snow to sleet to rain situation????

    Time will tell. Perhaps there will be some clues with the 0Z run?

  44. Mike W just presented a great 4:50 pm forcast. At this point ( saying itā€™s way early ) he likes the Euro with the lessee amounts & thinks other model runs tonight number could come down . He said anything could change Its just what he likes now . He talked about those apps on your phone that pop up calling for snow & laughing saying donā€™t always go by that app. I thought it was a really responsible forcast . Mike is a good meteorologist!

    1. Outside shot you’ll get some “general” maps as in probability of over 6 inches etc with cautions. You may get your first accumulation maps on Saturday evening forecasts. That’s when I’m going to attempt my initial detailed call, just a touch sooner than I usually do. Usually 48, sometimes 60, rarely 72 hrs out.

  47. Well, they can’t take today away from us. Beautiful winter’s day, in my book. Some sun, some refreshing cold, some wind, nice sunset.

    1. SClarke I really appreciate that thank you , I do not know how to do that lol . Again I really think mike is a good met .

    1. I have to admit that when I read “Well, until today” I had a bad feeling. A quick glance at the text of the link you gave was a relief. šŸ˜€

  50. I’d like to start a campaign to end the use of the word “unprecedented” unless something really is unprecedented. I’m guilty of misusing the word, too, by the way. Every time there’s an unusual weather event the media call it “unprecedented.” For example, the blizzard warnings hoisted in the LA region are certainly unusual. No doubt about that. But unprecedented? No. Similar warnings were posted as recently as 1989, which isn’t that long ago.

    And one word I’d rather not hear anymore because it’s SO overused – especially in the medical field – is “game-changer.” Practically everything these days is a game-changer, which of course renders the word meaningless. Very few medicines are game-changers. Very few technologies are game-changers. Some are, to be sure, but we seem to attach the word to everything new these days. This may explain the massive bubble burst in biotechnology stocks, as nearly everything new item was (and is) touted as a game-changer until reality (real-world evidence) sets in, and only a few technologies turn out to be game-changing.

    2. I agree the media might overuse the word. Sadly and frighteningly, we are close to a point of no return. Or as a wise individual on this blog said recentlyā€¦.. we may be at or past that point. That is not a dramatic comment. Itā€™s simple truth. In our history, it has been necessary to overstate in order to get attention.

      I agree that one weather event may not be unprecedented because it had occurred in the past. But when a constant series of those events occur, then that becomes unprecedented.

      The sad truth is that the impact humans are having on this earth, water, air is unprecedented

      Cambridge dictionary: ā€œnever having happened or existed in the past:
      This century has witnessed environmental destruction on an unprecedented scale.ā€

  51. Wow – that forecast by Mike W with his clear and kind and completely coherent explanation of how simply modeling vs actual forecasting works and why apps are so off base and dangerous to rely on should be required viewing for everyone. Thanks for posting it SClarke!

    Also love the referees to Mt. Baldy as the college I attended for undergrad (Pomona) owned a cabin there and I used to visit the area when I lived in Claremont, CA – in the late ā€˜90ā€™s! Such a small world!

  52. I just watched Mikes explanation and agree with mama. WOW

    I am saving this and will share it.

    Thank you SSK and SClarke.

  53. TWC has a a forecast of 51 and rain Friday for New Bedford – and the Storm app has 45 and rain. Same olā€™ā€¦same olā€™ā€¦

      1. South Dartmouth Vicki so every now and then I will give the South Coast perspective – I think we will get a couple of inches at most before a mix and change to rain – this is definitely not a classic coastal low by any means

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