Saturday February 25 2023 Forecast (7:27AM)

199 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 25 – MARCH 1)

We’ll have a couple of disturbances moving through this weekend with “minor” unsettled weather. The first one moves through from the west today with lots of clouds and eventually a couple areas of light snow, but no real accumulation expected other than maybe a brief coating here and there. The next system comes through from northwest to southeast on Sunday, with a low center passing just to our north. It’ll be a slightly milder day than today but still cold enough to support mostly snow showers, this time favoring areas north of I-90, again with minor accumulation at most. High pressure moves in Sunday night and Monday with fair weather. And then comes low pressure to impact the region with a winter storm threat. Primary low pressure moves into the Great Lakes via the Chicago area. Similar to the system earlier this week, this one will feature elongated low pressure and a redevelopment south of New England, moving eastward from there. With the primary low staying pretty much intact, we may be stuck a little bit in a no man’s land between the two low centers, which can result in lighter overall precipitation. That’s one scenario. Another is that the newer low is close enough to produce heavier bands of precipitation (likely snow) over portions of the region. So there’s definitely a good possibility of some decent snowfall amounts with that system. There may be a rain/snow line involved as well, which will be determined and fine-tuned. This system will wind down and move out later Tuesday and we’re currently looking at a small area of high pressure to bring March in with dry weather on Wednesday.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow midday to mid afternoon west, mid to late afternoon further east – minor accumulation possible. Highs 21-28. Wind NW up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 11-18 early, rising slightly overnight. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming SW.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers north of I-90 and a possible mix/rain shower I-90 belt south in the afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind SW-S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow arrives. Lows 22-29. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast. Good chance of snow, but may be mixed precipitation and/or rain is possible to the south. Highs 30-37. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Precipitation ends, clouds break. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 2-6)

Active pattern – watching low pressure areas to bring potential wintry precipitation threats March 2, 4, and 6. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 7-11)

Additional unsettled weather early in the period then a drying trend indicated with a northwesterly air flow overtaking the northeastern US. Temperatures near to below normal.

199 thoughts on “Saturday February 25 2023 Forecast (7:27AM)”

  1. Thanks TK. Some of the models starting to point to the first scenario a little bit, where we end up in no man’s land.

    1. A couple days ago while the social media weather weenies were busy finding every model run with the biggest snow totals and posting them all over the internet, I mentioned on a weather page I co-admin that while the 25 to 36 inch snowfall totals being pained by the European model at the time were going to be way, WAY too high, that they should not be surprised if that system ends up looking at least somewhat similar to the one we just had – with some differences obviously.

      I heard some people refer to it as a “classic” set-up. No. It’s not a going to be a classic set up in the sense of a big high to the north and a low coming up the coast. This is way, way different. And I do honestly try to avoid all that extraneous garbage out there, but it’s impossible to avoid when so many people send me screen shots of these things and ask me how true (or false) they are. To be honest, I’d rather give them an honest answer than turn my back on it.

      The Mike W. explanation is something I’m very glad he did but also something I’ve been repeating over and over for several years now. It needs to be said often……….. 🙂

  2. Ensemble precipitation amounts for the Monday night / Tuesday system…

    ECMWF (Euro) is driest with around 0.25-0.50 inch.
    CMC / GFS slightly wetter with 0.50-0.75 inch idea.

    Even at 10:1 and falling as all snow (not sure it will be all snow for everybody yet), that’s a moderate snowfall at best – something that has been pointed out a few times over the last few days here. The idea is still there.

    This morning I am still getting Tweets (not from trusted sources) that we have “more confidence in a major snowfall”. Translate this to: “This is what I want, so I’m going to say it!” 😉 I’d say no, not more confidence in a major snowfall. I’d say more confidence in a winter storm impacting the region – snowfall amounts TBD. I’m going to try a very early first call idea tonight (in the comments) and update that on tomorrow’s blog post, then go from there.

  3. Thanks TK. This never screamed major from the outset. A moderate storm still seems likely. I bet it ends up closer and we get a widespread 6-10. Let’s see how it shakes out. Nice cold winter day with mood snow showers.

    1. I’d be almost willing to bet the house that what you describe does not happen. Hope it does, but bet it won’t. Will be watching for any signals that signify a change to a more snowier scenario.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I do NOT like what I am seeing in the models.
    The NAM even changes it to all rain along to coast to say 20 or 30 miles inland with virtually NO accumulation along the coast.
    The MOST robust is the GFS with 5 inches Kuchera for Boston with around 10 inches out by Worcester.

    How anyone can say with confidence that we are in for a Moderate Snow event is beyond me. Could we get that?
    Sure, but I would bet against it at this point.

    What a shame as we have been waiting all Winter and now it is looking like we will have to WAIT some more. When we’re running bad, we’re running bad. Here’s hoping….. 🙂

    Awaiting those 12Z runs. 🙂

  7. As TK said above, “It’s not going to be a classic set up in the sense of a big high to the north and a low coming up the coast.”

    My question is about the way that this storm will develop – primary low to our west and secondary low developing to our east. Has this scenario ever been known to produce a very significant snowstorm for our area? As a non-meteorologist, my sense is that the redevelopment scenario is less likely to have the same potential as the classic one.

    1. This scenario has produced larger snowfalls, but you still need certain little details to be the “right” way for it.

      They can vary, and are not limited to these couple examples…

      1) A slower system, cold air locked in, longer period of ocean wind enhancing snowfall.

      2) A more rapidly deepening secondary, with banding features producing areas of heavier snowfall.

      3) A stronger upper level system or perhaps better lift with the trough that connects the primary to the secondary, and the “no man’s land” is actually filled with more significant snowfall.

  11. Thanks, TK.

    I’m also thankful we can actually discuss some winter, albeit late in the season. Besides a couple of cold air blasts there’s been practically nothing to discuss.

  12. For whoever was interested in tracking, the first TV snow map is out. New England Cable News. I haven’t seen it – somebody told me. 🙂 First showed up late last night. Not too early IMO for an early call…. They cover New England (not just SNE) and the event is about 60 hours away from beginning.

  13. SC. Not sure if you are reading. I follow a weather page on FB that is quite good. I’m guessing the person is male and believe he is from Sturbridge. It covers weather along Rt 20 through central and western ma. As a weather enthusiast, I wonder if you are familiar with it. I’d love to know who the person is.

    1. Hi Vicki, just getting around to reading this now. Yes the gentleman’s name is Rob Lightbown (crown services weather) aka Rt 20 weather. He moved to Sturbridge about 2 years ago from western mass, from somewhere around the Springfield area I think. He claims to be a meteorologist, and an amateur astronomer, but I really don’t know too much about him, however I do follow him on twitter. He lives about 3 miles as the crow flies from me so a lot of our observations are very similar. He usually doesn’t hype things up too often, unlike some of the other weather nuts in the area,

      1. Thank you. I agree that he is straight forward. And I think knowledgeable. I see his posts often on the Sutton site so started following him.

  14. In other news, Thor the Walrus gets around. He was in Northumberland, England, in January. He’s now in Iceland. Must have swum up the Scottish coast and then made a northwest turn towards Iceland. He’s quite a swimmer. The waters between Scotland and Iceland are cold and rough (choppy). https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-64765003?

      1. I love turkeys. My wife hates them and can’t understand why I like them. They are really impressive when they are flying.
        That is a sight not often seen, but way cool when witnessed!

        1. Woburn had a famous (infamous?) turkey named Kevin who would stop traffic on a routine basis, and was not afraid of holding up large trucks for a while. This turkey actually made the news a couple times. 😉

          They don’t bother me. Neither do Canada geese. People complain about goose poop. Same people probably toss their cig butts out the window or drop wrappers on the ground instead of putting them in the trash.

    2. Common mistake of the NAM is to be too warm in this scenario.
      I don’t think keeping the cold in place is going to be the problem. It’s getting enough QPF.

    1. No way to know that yet. There’s still plenty of cold air in Canada and with the pattern over the next 2 to 4 weeks, we’ll be vulnerable to shots of cold. I’d not bet on this being the coldest until next winter.

  21. Everything looks 2-5″. Here in Essex County we have gotten a tad more this winter which of course is not saying much. I could see us getting 3-4″ as it stands now. Even by tomorrow I think it’ll be tough to make a solid call. Models seem to be in different places and no one model seems to have fully made up its mind.

  22. I haven’t done my #FeetInAtlanticWaterEveryMonth2023 for February yet. I think Monday afternoon is when it’s happening…

    1. Fascinating. Now that is real science. Ask questions and try to find the answers. Very interesting story. 🙂

  25. Temps 10 to 15 degrees below normal today.
    When we get back to near normal tomorrow it’ll feel mild!
    At least today we don’t really have any wind to bite ya…

    1. True, it is that much below normal, but to me, this is NOTHING.
      It got to 14 this morning here in JP. No big deal, BUT very cold
      for this Winter. 🙂

      How much will it SNOW overnight Monday into Tuesday?

      TBD

      1. In case you missed my reply above…

        I don’t think the cold air staying around is the issue. I think we stay cold. We struggle to get the good moisture in here though. That is probably more of a limiting factor in snowfall for that system than any potential mix/change (unless you’re right on the South Coast / Cape Cod).

  27. GDPS QPF is only around 0.50 inch on the 12z run with snow amounts fairly low … FWIW I think like the NAM this model is not keeping it cold enough.

  29. Thanks TK.

    Been training a new hire this morning. I usually post on the blog fairly early when I’m at work. 🙂

    Words of wisdom from AJ Burnett verbatim:

    “I don’t THINK we’ll be buried.”
    “Kids, do your homework, JUST IN CASE”.

    According to WBZ radio: 4-8 inches for Boston.

    No snow maps/amounts from the morning tv Mets that I am aware of.

    1. Just NECN. Locals will post this evening.
      Haha AJ! Always had that sense of humor.

      Hope the training is going well. 🙂

      1. Yes, she’s actually had some “issues” that came up and she handled term fine. Perfect timing in a way. She’s on her own tomorrow.

    1. Actually, for a first call, reasonable and this might actually be close to what happens. But then again, it could still be
      LESS than this. We shall see.

      1. I believe that 4-6 should include Boston and most of the east coastline. The 2-4 seems a bit too conservative, but that’s just my take.

    2. If that were my initial map I’d probably tweak the coast up a bit and tilt the lower amounts down toward the South Coast online. This is more of an west-east set-up. It will be easier for the colder air to be in place along the eastern coastal areas with the lack of a strong onshore wind. Your mix/change would be more of a South Coast thing with the combination of the warmest air aloft and mildest surface temps right there.

  32. Meanwhile, if you want to look ahead a bit…

    CPC’s Week 3 & 4 forecast indicates BELOW normal temps for almost the entire country (except near normal South Texas and near to above normal Florida Peninsula – closer to what remains of the SE ridge). The East turns cold, but the West stays cold – as they have been pretty much the entire winter.

    Could end up with a colder than normal March, in contrast to last year’s milder one. Pretty much opposite of this winter when we had a warm January vs. last year’s cold one. 🙂

  34. If we can get one of these systems to overachieve in the eastern sections, Boston “could” make a run at Worcester for the seasonal total. Who knows? 😉

    Worcester 21.0” Boston 10.3”

    BOS 10.3” 😉
    NYC 0.0”

    1. Well, you are a dreamer. 😉
      Hey, it’s always possible. Imagine a coastal surprise where Boston gets 18 inches and Worcester gets just a few. It’s happened before! 😉 I just wouldn’t place a money bet on it this year, but you never know. Keep keeping track. 🙂

      1. Well, SOMETHING happened last winter. Either Boston overachieved and/or Worcester just plain “choked” at the end. 😉

        We’ll see.

        1. It was just that rare occasion where they end up higher. As previously noted, there can even be instances where portions of Cape Cod / Islands end up with more snow than Boston during a season. It’s rare, but it’s been observed. Anomalies are part of what make up our long term averages. 🙂

            1. They certainly can! But they often do not. 🙂
              Actually, anomalies tend to cluster based on certain patterns, but in this case the odds of having Boston beat Worcester twice in a row in snowfall based on the long term average is just very unlikely.

    2. NYC is at 0.4 (Central Park).
      I can see them getting a few inches of snow easily out of the Monday night / early Tuesday event there.

    1. Thanks Jimmy. I believe though that they will most likely be flirting with the rain/snow line for the Tuesday event. Hopefully they can squeeze out an inch or two. 🙂

  36. Thanks TK.

    Steady snow here in Coventry CT with a temp of 19F. It has been snowing for about 2 hours now and just picked up in intensity a bit. Everything is covered and it instantly turned the road and driveway white with the cold temps. Really looks and feels like winter today!

    1. I’m focusing on some in-house stuff today which gets way behind quickly with all the stuff going on right now, but I am taking 1 hour off to grab my old plastic sled and go down the frozen hill nearby. This will be a FAST ride. 🙂 I love being the “oldest kid on the hill” – although today I’ll probably be the only kid on the hill besides my also forever young son. 😉 They don’t tend to venture out on the icy hill when it’s this cold – just fine with me!

      1. I think the positioning of that high to the north will make a big difference whether that system gets up here or not. Just looked at the UKMET and it has a cold coastal storm. Some of the CMC ensembles get the snow up here as well. A blend of the GFS with the other models would yield a nice cold snow event here. It’s a watcher at least.

      1. No, seriously. I had no idea. I’m still trying to understand the difference between La Niña, El Niño, NEUTRAL, ENSO etc. 🙂

  40. NWS Boston
    @NWSBoston
    1h

    [Plowable Snow] A plowable snowfall is likely for much of the region Mon night-Tue. The bulk of the snow should arrive after the Mon evening rush hour, but impact the Tue morning commute with some improvement by the afternoon. Anticipate a snowfall graphic later this afternoon.

  42. This is a great comparison showing both the operational and ensemble runs of the GFS, CMC, and Euro as well as the snowmaps for each of the 6 scenarios Mon night into Tuesday. Still a decent amount of spread.

    eweather
    @Eweather13
    4h

    Here’s the Euro, GFS and CMC operational and ensemble runs for Monday night into Tuesday. Still alot to figure out. But my first call snow map is out.

    https://twitter.com/Eweather13/status/1629478137993089024?s=20

  44. Radar looks impressive in the Berkshires and much of CT but the snow looks like it wants to break up at any moment. Will it survive eastbound?

  46. Look at this radar loop in Southern California. Absolute firehose!

    Ryan Maue
    @RyanMaue
    15h

    Southern California has another 18 hours of atmospheric river + blizzard dumping trillions of gallons worth of 100% totally free precipitation. ❄️

    2. I saw on CNN very encouraging before and after photos of reservoirs in CA going in the good direction. From nearly empty a couple years ago to 2/3 to 3/4 full.

  47. Philip, I can confirm it is not snowing in NYC as I just left the Moynihan train station. What a place that was, amazing !!!

    Based on what Mark is reporting, perhaps I’ll be seeing snow snow out the window soon in southern CT.

  48. Tweet by Bernie Rayno at 1:00 pm

    This also has a look to me that the cold air will be deeper and stronger than modeled (Northeast Mon into Tue) This will be a sneaky snow as someone in the area between NYC and BOS can get double digit snowfall with this system. The question is the track of the shortwave.

    1. The cold air is not going to be the issue, IMO. It’s the amount of precipitation. While I get what Bernie is hinting at here, and not totally out of the question, I think it’s going to be very difficult for somebody to get double digit snow in that area he specified.

      Always love reading Bernie’s ideas though. 🙂

    2. I like the way he thinks but not sure I am buying it….just yet. Agree on the cold just dont think there will be enough QPF

    1. But what about the 36 to 43 inch snowfall! That’s what the model said the other day! It lied! 😉

  50. And just a few runs ago the ECMWF had some snow totals of 40+ inches from the Tuesday storm…… Hah. Hah. Haaahhh… Hah. Same areas, now showing 3 to 6 inches. 😉

      1. I’m not paying attention, other than what people share with me, and then even then I’m not really paying attention. 😉

    1. HAHAHA… what, no 40+?

      If that model run was on the money we’d have ourselves a “South Coast Special”. 🙂

  52. Dew points considerably higher (10s) in the Berkshires and most of CT. Still in negative/positive single digits in eastern sections.

  53. There has been moderate to heavy snow in my area now for the past hour, I have to admit that I’ve been taken off guard by the intensity of the burst of precip from this disturbance coming through.

  55. Pretty decent band of snow from just West of Worcester to just East of Springfield. We shall see IF it ever makes it here.
    Sun still visible through overcast here. 🙂

      1. However, as per usual, it “appears” to be weakening just a bit.
        We shall see. Probably only get snow flurries here. 🙂

    2. Wow impressive! Just measured under an inch here but it has now tapered off. Still nice to see everything white again.

  57. Here’s a video from my coffee run today. This is around 1200′ elevation in Rancho Cucamonga, CA.

    https://imgur.com/a/lLCMadB

    It would not be an exaggeration to say I could live the rest of my life here and not see that again. The elevations around 1000′ get the occasional snow flurry or grapuel shower in the winter, but synoptically driven snow like that at that elevation is 1 in 25 years at best, probably more like 1 in 50.

  58. There’s something about native palm trees and snow, it ranks right up there with thunder snow. Thanks WxWatcher!

  60. If you missed it the Red Sox game ended on a 3-2 two out clock violation called against the batter who was not “alert and ready” for the pitch. No pitch, automatic strike. End of game. Wow.

    1. I’m kind of glad, because this is a good example of how MLB is in the process of killing its own game, one moronic rule at a time…

      1. What do you think is up with those 2?
        What are they missing. Wouldn’t they ordinarily do better than this? thanks

  65. Today’s CPC temperature outlook is for just BARELY below normal temperatures for NE and near normal for the remainder of the eastern U.S. through March 11th.

  68. Nice wintry day. The mood flurries add to the ambiance.

    On my run, I heard the geese conversing. I don’t speak goose-ese, but I’m sure they were talking about the flattening Southeast ridge. And, for the first time this winter the squirrels got a chance to play memory: Where did I store that nut last November? I saw several squirrels digging away through the crusty snow. Not sure if they found what they were looking for. The most impressive animal I saw on my run was a giant hawk. He lives nearby. He was peering out over the Teddy Ebersol softball field – where I also saw the squirrels – looking for lunch or dinner.

  72. A little over achiever of a system with 3 1/2” and still coming down lightly, looks like the back edge is approaching so this may be it.

  76. Awhile ago it was still snowing steadily while the bright crescent moon was out. That is a good sign it WILL snow again tomorrow!

    Old weather saying: “Rain or snow while sun or moon is out means “unsettled” conditions the following day.”

    1. I love it. Thanks Philip. Been a tough week and we have felt my mom close. Your saying just makes me smile.

  77. We managed about 3/4 of an inch of fluff.

    I’m ok with the snow, but 19F ???? Couldn’t it be 29F, where it can still snow. … 19F ……

  78. Taunton NWS has a projected start time map for snow and I think it, in addition to expected QPF, should offer some confidence in eastern mass amounts being 4 inches or under.

    They have the snow arriving in eastern areas between 1 and 4 am.

    With the Tuesday temps were working with, I keep picking about 9am as to when temps and daytime brightness take over.

    So, that gives a 5-8 hr window to accumulate snow, that won’t be consistently heavy 1-2 inch rates per hour.

    Given light to moderate intensity during that 5-8 hr window, receiving 2-4 inches will be a win.

    1. Yeah this will be nothing big , March 1st Wednesday, boy this month flew by . I hope the snow is light & fluffy

      1. I kind of think Monday nights may start out middle of the road (powdery vs wet) and trend wetter towards Tuesday morning.

    2. 9AM? I think that would be a tad early. I wouldn’t worry
      about temp and sun angle till about 11AM. 🙂

        1. Something like that, give or take a bit. 🙂

          I will make a note to keep an eye on the temperature Tuesday AM just out of curiosity. 🙂

    3. This is Monday night into Tuesday right? Under 4 doesn’t warrant dragging the snow blowers back here. I admit to wanting something big enough to warrant getting them later in the week.

  79. I remember back in the 1970s, Boston DPW would start plowing at 3 inches. No idea how they determine today. Maybe when there’s no more blacktop visible on the streets?

    1. It’s usually dependent on the hour-by-hour info the receive from their forecasting service (hopefully not a weather app). And it would vary from town to town, maybe urban vs. rural. I don’t think there’s necessarily one solid rule of how much and when.

      You can have a heavy snow event that literally only makes the streets wet and may never need plowing, but just treatment for dropping temps. Or you can have a situation where the road gets covered quickly and is slick for an hour or two and then the temp goes up and everything melts, and maybe it stays that way, or maybe it gets colder again later and they have to treat again. Or maybe you have a good old fashioned multi-hour snowstorm with moderate to heavy snow where they start plowing at about 1/2 to 1 inch (or basically when the street is such that car tires are no longer contacting pavement, but only snow, and then they determine how many passes to make and how frequently to make them based on their snowfall rate forecast (again back to the hour by hour snowfall and temp forecast by whatever service they use). And I didn’t even touch upon mix / change events. But you get the idea. 🙂

      1. Great comment. I absolutely agree. Each town is different enough that there is no way to set a standard. And DPWs know their towns. They have treated here today for Just under two inches. But roads were slick. We have some main roads that underground streams empty onto and freeze.

      2. It’s goes by the condition of the roads , it’s not by let’s drop the blade at 2.5 inches as that’s not how it goes . Most events start with salting & once a buildup starts you drop . Believe me there is plans in place such as updates by a weather service that most places have ( including at the Hospital) equipment is ready to go per what’s expected & appropriate staff . usually on duty ( hours before preparing ) Also you usually have 3 parts to plowable events , preparation, upkeep during , and final detailed cleanup . This is how snow removal goes !

  81. My Storm app which is remarkably good with temperature predictions even 5 days out has temps right at 30-32 as snow starts and then Going up to 37 Tuesday am. Could see South Coast barely getting an inch. As for Thursday -high of 53 and Friday – high of 40. I don’t see a big snow event for immediate coast.

    1. Are you referring to the high temps predicted for your home town? Because we’re looking at a pretty decent sized area that a single high temp forecast is not going to cover.

      Also, who is the data / forecast supplier for the “Storm App”?

  83. Jacob W. and NWS believe that the hugest uncertainty of snowfall amounts are in eastern MA.

    TK – Do you share that concern as well?

    1. I don’t really. But that’s because I don’t buy the rain/snow line that some guidance is bringing into eastern MA. Guidance tends to overdo that warming in this set-up, so I am forecasting this to be a mainly snow event with only a bit of rain potential for the South Coast at the end. My forecast snowfall amounts will reflect this. The reason I am going to go 3-5 for Boston area and 5-8 further west and even southwest is more just due to the amount of precipitation that will be available for the atmosphere to wring out.

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