Monday February 27 2023 Forecast (7:30AM)

225 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 27 – MARCH 3)

A minor to moderate winter storm is inbound, and will impact us late tonight through Tuesday after a small area of high pressure starts us with fair weather today. Low pressure heads into the Great Lakes and its center elongates, a pathway to a new developing low that will then track eastward just to the south of New England during Tuesday. This will bring a light to moderate snowfall to our region, with enough warm air involved for some mixing with or turning to rain along the South Coast, and possibly South Shore up toward Boston toward the end of the event, after most of the snow accumulation has occurred. The storm exits Tuesday night and we clear out. Say hello to March on Wednesday with a small area of high pressure and fair weather, but this gets scooted along quickly by an approaching warm front which will bring clouds back and some evening precipitation (probably snow or mix to rain). Unsettled weather will be ours on Thursday as the low parenting the warm front will track just to our north, putting us on the mild side initially, then pulling its cold front through during the day with rain showers, and eventually a return to colder/drier weather by evening. Another weak area of high pressure will move across the region by early Friday, a day that starts dry and cold, but more clouds will be streaming into the region ahead of the next storm in our active pattern. This system may be moving quickly enough so that we are into its precipitation shield as early as Friday late afternoon or evening, but this timing will be monitored and refined as the week goes along…

TODAY: Patchy clouds early, then lots of sun during the morning. Sunshine fading behind increasing high to middle cloudiness during the afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow arrives late evening and overnight. Lows 22-29. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow likely, may mix with or change to rain/drizzle South Coast, Cape Cod, and possibly Cape Ann MA in the afternoon before tapering off. Snowfall accumulations 1-3 inches South Coast / Cape Cod as well as Cape Ann MA, 3-5 inches MA South Shore, inland eastern RI, remainder of MA North Shore, I-95 belt, 5-8 inches interior southern NH, central MA, and northeastern CT and interior western RI. Highs 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: An early snow flurry possible otherwise clearing. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with some rain, may start as snow in some areas. Lows 30-37 early, rising slightly overnight. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, ending later in the day. Highs 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH becoming variable to N, then NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts late in the day.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow/mix late day or night. Highs 30-37. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 4-8)

Active pattern – watching low pressure areas to bring potential wintry precipitation threats March 4 and 6-7. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 9-13)

General idea is for continued colder than normal but a drier, less active pattern in terms of storm threats.

225 thoughts on “Monday February 27 2023 Forecast (7:30AM)”

  3. Thanks TK !

    Even now 19 years of teaching …….. 1st few periods back from a vacation, takes a bit to recapture the flow of a 45 minute class …… at least its review today. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  7. Thanks TK.

    I still feel that some Superintendents are going to have a tough call to make tomorrow morning. I remember way back when I was in elementary school a number of times I had to go in heavy snow but coming home was usually considerably better.

    From what I can tell from the tv mets this morning, roads should be just wet fairly early into the commute even though snow will still be at least moderate. We’ll have to ultimately wait and see but that’s just “my” interpretation of their thoughts.

    1. I trust the superintendents know their towns. Sadly it’s the push from parents that makes the decision difficult which is sad on its own.

  9. Wish tonight’s system was a bigger one. I guess we’ll just have to take what we get. The next one for Friday/Saturday looks much more interesting. We’ll have to wait and see. 🙂

    1. That looks about right as to what ultimately will fall. At least Jimmy should do well. 🙂

      Also note the “shadow” effect in the CT valley!

  15. I saw Vicki post last night something from twitter ….

    The NWS office or the SPC office in Norman, OK I believe (maybe they are one in the same) just got missed by a tornado last night.

    Pretty sure also a derecho went through that general part of the country.

    I have to think the late week system is going to also have a severe side to it, this time, maybe the Mississippi River Valley.

    I am more intrigued by that one for snow potential. I think the GFS is hinting at blocking squashing the low under us, even though in sensible weather, right now, its too mild for all snow.

    2. Reading an article saying 12 people from Norman, OK in hospital with weather related injuries. Hopefully, not life threatening.

  17. The great snow of 1717

    Whenever Henry Thoreau wants to evoke wallowing snows and winter awe, he turns back to the Great Snow[s] of 1717. Then, in the very month of February, huge, wind-driven snows laid down Buffalonian depths that buried both houses and pastured animals. In “Winter Visitors,” he writes of “that early settler’s family in the town of Sutton, in this state”:

    …whose cottage was completely covered by the great snow of 1717 when he was absent, and an Indian found it only by the hole which the chimney’s breath made in the drift, and so relieved the family.

    https://thoreaufarm.org/2015/02/deeper-still-digging-back-into-the-great-snow-of-1717/

    https://twitter.com/nwsboston/status/1630206116142669825?s=61&t=7cvlQxMwzVSskRQdKqecMQ

  21. Interesting that Thoreau references Vicki’s town of Sutton. Thanks for posting, Vicki.

    By the way, I’ve often wondered what kind of winters Thoreau experienced near Walden Pond. I think he spent 2 winters there. Were they typical New England winters? Or, was one of them mild, like the one we’ve been experiencing? I think that this year, with the exception of the February 3-4 period, I could survive just fine in a little cabin like Thoreau’s.

  23. Thanks TK.

    With the exception of easternmost areas due to the marine influence, this will be a solid moderate snowstorm for nearly all of SNE, as it’s looked for several days.

    I agree on a drier interlude somewhere towards the second week of March. However, with the MJO signal that’s emerging, I wouldn’t be surprised to see more storminess and continued cold through a good portion of the month. Some portions of SNE (especially interior) may quietly piecemeal their way to a near average snow season before all is said and done, though it’ll likely be below average overall. But we’re seeing why you never write off winter before March 😉

    1. Is that Easternmost area you talk about cape cod , I’m located on the south shore as well like some others on here , I’m in pembroke .

    3. I agree that March can be filled with stormy weather. However after slogging thru 3 months (give or take), I get more motivated for Spring. Hopefully we have just a few weeks left of winter and they will be sprinkled with a few mild, sunny days. March madness and the return of daylight savings time will also help the cause.

    1. Yup, sure looks like we’ll be screwed again. But, as Yogi Berra used to say, “It ain’t over til it’s over”.

  27. Thanks WxW as always!

    As for “normal” snowfall, Worcester is a sure bet to not come even remotely close (73.0”). As for Boston highly unlikely as well (49.2”) which would need at least one blockbuster event along with at least a couple of moderate events.

    We can now bet on sports, too bad we can’t on weather. 😉

    1. Are you sure you want to use the term “sure bet” after reviewing winter weather history in March and April? 😉

      You don’t even need a blockbuster event. It can be approached or reached with a handful of moderate events.

  28. Thanks TK.

    Storm looks good out this way. Majority of the short range models and the GFS are delivering about 8″ to NE CT. That is a good snowfall if it materializes, especially in this winter, and I would be very happy with that amount.

    I have heard the word “moderate” used a lot for this storm. For eastern MA, I agree but for the rest of SNE, I would classify this as a significant storm. I have always gone by the scale:

    1-3″ – light
    3-6″ – advisory criteria, moderate
    6″+ – warning criteria, significant
    12″+ – major

    If winter storm warnings are being issued, does not seem analogous to be calling it a moderate snowfall.

    1. Of course, I realize it is all relative depending on your perspective. Dave, for instance, adopts the Sierra Nevada scale:

      1-10″ – light
      10-20″ moderate
      20-30″ significant
      30″+ Holy crap batman

      1. Haha. I have to say I do like his scale.

        And sooooooo. NE corner of CT is a mere 10 miles from my Sutton location. Do you suppose you can push the system this way

      2. Hahaha!!!

        I use yours.

        For Dave’s I like Holy Crap Batman or Cowabunga for the top…

        But the other three….

        -Pathetic
        -Unimpressive
        -Acceptible but still *yawn*

        🙂 🙂

  30. For the Friday/Saturday storm:

    12z GFS is a mess with snow to mix/ice and a changeover to plain rain in CT/RI/SE MA:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023022712&fh=111

    12z CMC would heavy snow with a changover to mix/ice Pike south:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023022712&fh=120&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=prateptype-imp&m=gdps

    00z Euro was a sizable hit with mostly all heavy snow. Brief mixing south coast:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023022700&fh=126&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    12z Icon keeps it all snow Pike north with snow to mix/rain south of there.

      1. I know, I was thinking about that when I wrote it however that’s exactly where those models are showing the changeover line. As close as you are to it, you are still a “south of the Pike” dweller in my book.

  31. HREF model Snowmap in this link from Ryan H shows a pretty widespread swath of 6″+ across SNE and as far east as the Boston metro west area:

    Ryan Hanrahan
    @ryanhanrahan
    4h

    Overnight computer guidance in very good agreement with 4″-8″ of snow across Connecticut. It does look like there may be a pocket of higher amounts in the hills of W Hartford/E Litchfield Counties.

    https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1630189124782096385?s=20

          2. Um, Thanks but no thanks! 2015 was more than enough for me.

            I guess that’s what 1717 was like in Boston.

  35. Another de-amplifying system next Fri/Sat.

    We’ll have to watch how this one plays out for late tonight/tomorrow morning. 🙂

  36. You can really see the mod/heavy snow in CT and eastern NY state at 6z on the EURO radar simulation and then its just light snow by 12z in eastern MA.

    I also like how the EURO simulates a mix or light rain/drizzle tomorrow midday/afternoon in eastern Mass.

    Just not feeling this for eastern Mass. I just don’t think the signal is there for much moderate snow east of 495. And then topped with mix or rain and temps in the mid 30s. Whats going to be left on the ground by tomorrow night ? Not much, I’d say.

    1. Hmmm, Here is a zoomed version.

      https://ibb.co/9p1gNst

      Looks like the 6-8 contour covers many of the Boston Neighborhoods, including JP.

      IF this is correct, then JP Should end up with around 6 inches
      give or take an inch or so.

      NOT saying this is correct, just saying IF correct. 🙂

  38. So far, that weekend system looks like a “bread & milk” deal. I wish I didn’t have to work. Oh well. 😉

  39. So non snow question. Does distilled water take lower temps or more time to freeze. I started using it for my humidifier. The bottle takes up too much space in fridge so out on my deck Deck might get sun after 4:00 but is still snow covered. It had yet to freeze and it was out overnight Saturday when it was very cold.

    1. Profile photo for Veerasamy Natarajan
      Veerasamy Natarajan
      Graduate in Chemistry, University of Madras (Graduated 1973)Author has 3.7K answers and 3.2M answer views5y

      Yes, distilled water can be frozen. It will not take more time in comparison to water that we drink. In chemistry, depression of freezing point is well discussed and the freezing point can be lowered if impurities are present in the freezing medium. Distilled water and drinking water both are comparatively pure/good water without high impurities. So this phenomenon is not applicable here, in freezing.

      1. Thanks JPD…. I think I just disproved his theory. It’s maybe 1/3 of the bottle remaining and has yet to freeze overnight. Even with temps in low 20s.

        1. I will put the same amount of tap water out tonight in an identical container. Clearly it takes very little to amuse me

      1. Anything not snow or rain is mix in my book 🙂

        But yes mostly sleet. Some frz rain in CT showing up as well.

  43. 5 days out on the weekend system, that’s what we want.

    Not showing a snow hit. If it showed a snow scenario, it wouldn’t happen.

    This is perfect !!!!! Projecting sleet to rain 108-120 hrs out means we get a big hit of snow !!

    2. ha ha ha ha. You know what it really means? The storm will track up the Hudson and we’ll get 2 inches of rain!!!!

        1. That was my one attempt Mark. I do not believe that Word Press has it or allows it. A copy and paste of the emoji
          does not/will not show in Word press. Construct oen from your key pad. 🙂

          1. …………………./´¯/)
            ………………..,/¯../
            ………………./…./
            …………./´¯/’…’/´¯¯`·¸
            ………./’/…/…./……./¨¯\
            ……..(‘(…´…´…. ¯~/’…’)
            ………\……………..’…../
            ……….”…\………. _.·´
            …………\…………..(
            …………..\………….\…

            That is how you do it. 😉

  45. Quick glance at 18z SRG.
    Still keeping my first call #’s intact.

    Heading to the beach to put my feet in the water for February.
    Predicted air temp 31, water temp 41 when I get there. 🙂

  46. Medium range: Leaning toward a slightly flatter flow and colder set-up for later Friday to early Saturday event.

        1. Thank you Tom. I’m having windows put in our house and we have a big 8ft that need to get in and this weather is not helping. It is what it is.

    2. TK, what do you make of the sudden uptic in SNOW amounts
      on the 3KM NAM?
      An Aberration? or something to watch?

  50. Looks to me like NAM is a bit of a malfunction on the 18z run (both 12km & 3km) – they develop some odd orographic snow to our west and just perpetuate it eastward when probably nothing will really be happening. That’s where the extra snow comes from. I suspect this will vanish on the 00z run.

  51. Boston will not be canceling school or issuing any type of snow emergency saying it does not fit the threshold.

    2. At this point they aren’t cancelling.

      BostonSchools is not cancelling classes for tomorrow due to expected snowfall, “at this point,” according to @MayorWu. She says they’re watching the timeframe and the expected snow totals, adding that this is a little below their threshold for declaring a snow emergency. #wcvb

      1. They already are always against the end of June seemingly every year without any/many snow days. They leave themselves without many snow days before they get to June 30.

    1. Canadian model suite has been consistently lower than all other guidance for this storm. It’s going to up in flames IMO. Toss it!

  53. Hull public with the 2 hr delay.

    Please, please, please …. a teacher’s dream day, 2 hrs shorter and it counts. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  54. I find it bizarre to make an announcement regarding NOT canceling school before a storm has even started, and 18 hours or so before the start of the next school day. Best approach here is to wait and see, which I guess Wu is doing but she’s fixated on amounts of snow. Please, do NOT use threshold amounts. That makes no sense. If there’s 3 or 4 inches on the ground during the morning commute, it will be messy and perhaps dangerously so for some kids at school bus stops, etc … It’s not about the precise amounts (say, winter storm levels of 6 inches or more), it’s about timing and how potentially dicey the situation can get. While school is important, keeping kids home for one day, or at least one morning, may be in their best interests.

  55. Gone are the days of waking up early and listening on the radio to the alphabetical listing of school closures and delays. That’s probably a good thing!

    I had a Social Studies teacher who, with a bit of Cold War humor, said that he expects to wake of some morning and hear on the radio: “The US East Coast has been destroyed by a nuclear attack. East Greenbush Central schools [our school] will be starting two hours late.”

    1. I don’t know whether to laugh or cry.

      I remember the days when my younger brother and I would literally hang out the window listening for the blast from the fire station that signaled school was closed. Thanks for bringing an awesome memory of my first best friend, SClarke ❤️.

    2. My home school grandkids (5 of 6) don’t get a snow day. But there is always time to head out to sled or play.

  56. Euro EPS not letting up on the winter pattern as we get into March. This for week 2 (March 9-15):

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2023_02/image.png.ef5330292942e3fa1d495f9f55f00fd5.png

    Even more intriguing, the EPS tanks the EPO and brings the PNA to neutral with a chance it even becomes positive during the second week of March:

    EPO index:

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2023_02/20230227_081257.jpg.dfaccf9e4a68ce5fa218b4d8a0ee9ddc.jpg

    PNA index:

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2023_02/20230227_081305.jpg.eeb0cac0db80767e506338c71f34ef50.jpg

    The Pacific has not been cooperating all winter so this would be a big change.

    March 10-14 could be another watch period if this materializes.

  57. Pete and Eric both with 4-8 inch areas all the way to 128….Dave Epstein with 4-7 now. Fox 25 and NWS more conservative on snow totals with Jeremy Reiner in the middle…tough call for schools in the 128 belt

  58. Couple thoughts heading into the current event from SNE…

    *Kuchera snow maps should do better than 10:1 overall, but as usual, there’s no perfect solution on that front.

    *If given a blind choice between the RGEM and the NAM, I’m taking the RGEM every time. Not to say it’s always gonna be the better of the two, but I’d take my ~75% odds 😉

    *TK’s ranges look real good to me. They’ll probably be a couple 8+ amounts in the interior higher terrain. But overall, while they’ll be a couple of higher and lower amounts (as always), this doesn’t strike me as the type of event that has the potential to end up drastically above or below expectations.

    *School cancellations seem like a no brainer to me tomorrow. The worst conditions will be right around commute time and probably linger into mid-morning. In what’s been a very quiet winter, I don’t see much reason not to err on the cautious side tomorrow…

  62. Most of accumulating in the morning , temps will be climbing tomorrow throughout the day with a high of 38 being projected

  63. Dartmouth School district called it at 5pm – no classes tomorrow – will be interesting to see how heavy and long the burst of snow will be once that low cranks up south of Long Island.

  64. Pretty easy call here in CT as a lot of schools already closed tomorrow. Many districts are having a snow day for the first time this winter.

    1. Back in the day as Framingham went so did Natick. But Framingham closed.

      Arlington has a delay similar to Belmont.

      I’m seeing the towns that are close to Sutton close so will be curious to see what Sutton does

  67. Coventry CT schools just called a remote learning day tomorrow. Like last year, the first two “snow” days will be remote learning days with an abbreviated schedule, getting out around noon. If they use up the two remote days, then they will go to regular snow days.

    1. Isn’t deciding on a delay the night before rather than a cancellation a little risky this early? Seems like there’s a good chance that a 2 hour delay will still mean traveling in dicey conditions… 7 am vs 9 am?

      I’m still waiting to hear about Concord/Fenn but likely if anything they will cancel because Tuesday is a half day. Either way I am not driving out from Boston tomorrow- that’s for sure! (I now live in Boston but my son goes to school in Concord MA).

      1. Excellent points.

        Sounds as if you ultimately do what I have always done and what my girls do…..just do what you feel is safest for your child.

  75. They said this morning it would start around 8pm in my area and it did. The storm is behaving so far and if it continues to I should see 6 inches of snow.

  80. Looking at weatherbug the projected temperature in pembroke tomorrow morning is looking pretty warm . I think the window of snow accumulation is shrinking . It’s just a guess but I think the high end of 5 will not be reached down this way .

        1. Yes same here now but the temps above are for tomorrow. I think it’s over quick down this way going by there numbers

  81. Love going back and reading the blog in the days leading up to massive storms. The gyrations back and forth is pure comedy gold on our part. Please don’t ever delete those TK !

  83. Really pounding snow here now and rapidly accumulating. Easily an inch so far and this is definitely 1″ per hour stuff.

  84. Would generally favor the lower end of the ranges especially in eastern areas… as that secondary redevelopment occurs, it’ll tend to hurt precip intensity in between the decaying primary low and developing secondary low. Precip will likely hang on well into tomorrow, but by mid-morning, you’re fighting a February 28 sun angle with marginal temps and marginal precip rates. Might become more “white rain” than anything. Further inland though, rates should be pretty solid for much of tonight with the benefit of the overnight timing.

    I’ll say 2.8 inches storm total for Logan, but it’ll probably be a low spot. Overall, seems like things will more or less progress as expected…

    1. What’s your over/under for Coventry CT (central Tolland County, 700 foot elevation)?

      I am setting my sights on 8″.

      1. Those elevated portions of interior CT and W/C MA tend to do well in these setups. A little apprehensive about the somewhat ragged look of the precip west of New England though. I’ll say 7″ there, but pretty much splitting hairs at that point 🙂

        1. I’m hoping that will fill in a bit more. I’d be happy with 7. If I dont pull 6 though, I may have a Dave tantrum in the AM.

      1. Your snow totals are going to be limited primarily by lack of QPF not temperature as TK has been saying. You’d have several hours of heavy snow overnight if the stuff moving through here now maintained its intensity all the way to the coast but it is looking like the precip will get lighter out your way as the coastal storm redevelops and takes over.

  86. 00z GFS still a mess for Friday/Saturday. Heavy snow to an extended period of sleet/ice. Pretty much entirely a frozen event for most on that run.

    00z CMC is colder…keeps it all snow in most of MA. Snow to sleet in CT, RI, and extreme SE MA.

    1. That lead band pretty potent and indicative of the stronger nature of the wave before it de-amplifies.

  89. NOTE: My snow forecast is for the ENTIRE event, meaning the snow that falls for the entire system, so don’t verify the entire event at dawn. It’s not done at dawn. 🙂

  90. 5.5” now here in Coventry and still coming down. I’m impressed. I may be verifying the event before dawn…..sorry!

  91. I wonder if we’re in for any temp surprise, Boston-Merrimack Valley and North Shore.

    Been pointing out for a while how models projecting mid 30s today.

    Portland, ME is 22F, Portsmouth, NH is mid 20s and Logan and the other areas above now have a NE wind.

    I’m not implying it’s going to fall to 22F, but if a little of that bleeds in, it could keep temps 30-32F instead of 35-36F and that would accumulate the snow better during the day on non paved surfaces.

  92. blah blah blah
    Storm my be producing for some areas, but here in the city
    it is pathetic. Started snowing around 1AMish as I was up at
    1:20 and it was coming down decently. Now it’s barely snowing and it would be lucky if there is a pathetic 1 inch on the ground. Seriously, this is ridiculous! Radar looks pathetic
    as well.

    i’ll eat my snow shovel IF Logan gets 3 inches. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    2. Let the event be complete first.

      You were not destined for a big storm, 3-5 inches, favoring the lower side. But the final snowfall is not here as of 7 a.m.

      1. Yes, I am well aware of that.
        BUT, after snowing From about 1AM and having
        an inch on the ground to show for it, does NOT bode well.

        This non-storm blows chunks!

  95. I hope nobody was looking for a classic northeaster from this – including on the radar set-up. As I explained, we’re between 2 low pressure systems and this is coming from everything between those – actually a pretty decent event considering.

  96. Good morning and thank you TK for the time invested trying to mail this one down.
    I just measured exactly 6” so far here, not bad and in line with the forecast.

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