Tuesday February 28 2023 Forecast (7:15AM)

219 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 28 – MARCH 4)

A minor to moderate winter storm is in progress and will continue most of the day today on this final day of February. Its greatest impact in terms of snowfall takes place southwest and west of Boston where it snowed longest during dark hours, and also heaviest as the initial band of snow was strongest – starting to weaken and break up gradually while heading northeastward as the system producing it weakens gradually and gives way to a new low to the south. That low will head eastward and keep the precipitation going for much of the day, albeit somewhat limited by daylight and lack of intensity, but we’ll continue to slowly add to the accumulation as the day goes on bringing the region generally into the predicted ranges, again favoring the lower sides of those ranges in some areas, especially to the east and northeast where the snow arrived latest and did not have the initial intensity seen to the southwest. The system exits tonight and the rest of the forecast looks on track as well. March arrives with fair weather to start Wednesday, but a disturbance will return clouds to the region later in the day with a burst of rain showers by evening, that may start as snow showers in some areas especially northwest of Boston. This will be as a warm front approaches and passes. Then the frontal boundary sinks back through the region slowly during Thursday as low pressure rides along it, but milder air in place with this system means rain instead of snow. A quick return to colder air as this exits on Thursday evening, and then we watch our next winter storm threat later Friday into Saturday as low pressure heads this way. The track of that storm will help determine the precipitation profile for our region, but at the moment I am leaning toward a track just to the south of our region with enough cold air in place for frozen precipitation (snow and sleet) in much of the area for the event, but we’ll have to watch for freezing rain and/or rain to be involved, especially to the south.

TODAY: Overcast. Snow likely, may mix with or change to rain/drizzle South Coast, Cape Cod, and possibly Cape Ann MA in the afternoon before tapering off. Snowfall accumulations 1-3 inches South Coast / Cape Cod as well as Cape Ann MA, 3-5 inches MA South Shore, inland eastern RI, remainder of MA North Shore, I-95 belt, 5-8 inches interior southern NH, central MA, and northeastern CT and interior western RI. Highs 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: An early snow flurry north and west and a bit of drizzle south and east possible otherwise clearing. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with some rain, may start as snow in some areas. Lows 30-37 early, rising slightly overnight. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, ending later in the day. Highs 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH becoming variable to N, then NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts late in the day.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow/mix late day. Highs 30-37. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast with snow/mix likely. Lows 26-33. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Snow/mix tapering off. Highs 30-37. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 5-9)

Watching the March 6-8 period for potential unsettled weather from one or two systems which may include additional frozen precipitation. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 10-14)

General idea is for continued colder than normal but a little less frequent storm activity, though still some wintry precipitation threat before the period is over.

219 thoughts on “Tuesday February 28 2023 Forecast (7:15AM)”

        1. As per usual everywhere I go regarding winter weather.

          It hasn’t changed in over two decades so I certainly don’t expect it to change now. 😉

  4. TK, thank you for the update.

    Walked the shore here and the snow was very light. Some of the regular walkers I see everyday asked me if we were going to get a foot of snow today. Not sure where people get this stuff. I was inclined to say yes but didn’t.

    My own forecast for Friday night/Saturday is YUCK!

    And last, the B’s are on a 7 game win streak!

    1. Those walkers probably got their info from the social media snow weenies. It goes to show that people get their weather information nowadays from “just anybody” willing to post a forecast online.

  5. Good morning and thank you.

    I’d like to report a very depressing 3 inches. And not a flake falling as if 7:56. We had an inch when I went to sleep at 12:30

    I don’t care if it isn’t enough to officially declare, but I’m calling a pajama day. Not a delay. But a full day.

  6. Thanks TK.

    Good move by Boston and most of the surrounding communities for having school today. This “event” is definitely a “non-event”.

  8. Barely a flake coming down here. 🙂

    My office had me send out a robo call encouraging all staff
    to work remotely. I OH so wanted to say WHY? It ain’t gonna
    snow much. But I kept my mouth shut and let them do what
    they wanted. 🙂

    1. My sons’ school is probably the only one in this area that did not have a delayed opening and frankly it was the right call. Roads were perfectly fine.

      1. I haven’t been out. But with hills and windy roads as well as a couple of main road areas that have streams running over parts of them and freezing, a delay at least was warranted. If schools could wait to call in the morning, I suspect the closing list would look different. But enough…not all….parents made noise about knowing the night before to make arrangements.

        1. No doubt it was warranted in some areas. I was surprised they waited until the morning to be honest. Clearly it worked out in this case.

  9. Well looking around social media today if this drives one thing home for me it is that somehow the way information is transferred these days almost everybody thinks everything is going to be a large storm and then as disappointed when it isn’t.

    I can’t wrap my head around that one.

    This event is doing pretty much exactly what was expected of it. What am I missing?

    1. Well, I know for sure it was NOT to be a classic N’oreaster nor did I expect heavy snow, BUT I did expect a little bit more that
      what I got here. yeah I know it ain’t over, but what is there to expect? another inch or so at best given sun angle and marginal temps.

      I call it a BUMMER, but then when it comes to SNOW, I am VERY VERY tough to satisfy. I know that. It’s the way I roll and I can’t help it. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    2. Nothing.

      Their subconscious is still comparing to that Euro snowfall projection from 4-5 days ago.

      But most of the short range models, save for the occasional overzealous 10:1 3km NAM projection had limited amts in eastern areas at this time frame.

      1. Good for them. To this day though, I’m still puzzled as to why they didn’t share in the big snows we all got back in 2015. Was there a “snow hole” in CT that winter? Lol. 🙂

        1. I did still get 80″ that winter but was on the outer fringe of the heaviest stuff with several of those storms. Still a very good winter though here. Out JJ’s way got less.

  13. Thanks, TK. We have about 2-1/2 inches of snow. Not snowing here at the moment but looks kind of weird out – looks like the sun wants to come out but I know it won’t. I would like to see 1 or 2 big snowstorms before the winter is over. Then onto Spring. Wondering what the summer will bring.

    Feeling bad for people down south and in Ohio w/the tornadoes. A bit unusual in Feb. some mets say. Weather has been a bit crazy everywhere.

  14. Good morning and thank you TK for the time invested trying to nail this one down.
    I just measured exactly 6” so far here, not bad and in line with the forecast.

  15. It’s always a lose/lose situation for school superintendents, but I’m a flabbergasted at the number of districts closed today.

    1. A good part of the reason is above. Boston got it right this time and last. it got around the demand to know the night before by only announcing the night before that it would make a decision in the morning. I’m hoping other supers pick up on this work around. But smaller towns are a problem. Many SCs are already in a mess.

      1. Agree. There has to be a better way. I’m old and miss the days when there actually had to be really hazardous driving conditions and an actual storm for school to be closed.

        1. First time I ever heard school cancelled the night ahead was December 1992. It was also the first time school was cancelled for more than one day (3). I do recall many snow days as a youth. There was no social media then where the same parents who insisted they know the night ahead complain the loudest if the call turns out to not be the best it could have been. It’s the same old with forecasts. The loudest mouths repeatedly say that Mets are always wrong and they have the megaphone.

          It puts people who are trying hard to do the best job possible between a rock and a hard place. It’s why I react so strongly.

  18. Radar is a broken up piece of garbage, however, I can clearly see some echoes Moving about ESE to WNW as posted by
    Tom earlier. 🙂

  19. Nice job mark!!
    I noticed last night that the radar returns were very similar in intensity for both of our areas. It was coming down heavily from the onset around 9:30 until about 2:00, about an inch an hour snowfall rate.

    1. Nice, seems like a very similar behaving storm for our areas. I am a bit surprised Vicki didnt get more…I guess just a bit too far east.

      Which town are you in again… ..Southbridge?

        1. OK, I knew you were in that area, just forgot exactly where. You are about 25 miles NE of me and 15 miles west of Vicki so makes sense our weather is often similar, depending on the storm.

  20. Ok, us eastern areas folks, here’s the mindset for Friday night and Saturday.

    rain and warm sector near 60F.

    That’s the expectation.

    Now, let’s see how we feel when we look out the window Saturday morning.

  22. OH, some flakes are now coming down. Not too many, BUT some flakes. 🙂
    Flakes “appear” to have their origins over the ocean just East of here. 🙂

  26. Big BLOB of much heavier snow is moving in just to our West.
    This appeared to develop out of NO WHERE! Amazing.
    Now let’s see IF it gets here and what it looks like when it does.

    At the same time there is stuff moving in from the ocean.

    Cool!

    Perhaps I’ll get some action here afterall. I AM WAITING. 🙂

    2. Of course, just in time for delayed school to start. Conditions at normal school time were better than right now, LOL

  28. We’ll last night I was watching those projected temps for today & I stated this will be over quick for accumulating snow . Extremely minor event in pembroke, not enough to plow or use any type of snow blowers , truck is not even completely covered in snow . It’s 35 here now as advertised. March 1st tomorrow & I like that

  30. Mix of sleet and snow in North Reading…Temps definitely an issue here in Eastern ma even north of the city…when ot comes down heavy enough it’s all snow…1.5 inches

  35. Thanks TK.

    Storm has behaved exactly as expected so far, basically to the letter. Precip re-intensifying over eastern areas now as expected. Sun angle and temps will be an issue as expected, but most of the Boston area should end up with 2-3” total. Another inch or two likely for a lot of inland spots also.

  36. Keep an eye on a little convergence zone offshore heading west. May enhance snowfall a bit in eastern MA and southeastern NH.

  39. Snow picked up in intensity here the last hour but the temperature has risen to 35F. It is accumulating on top of the snow that has already fallen but not on the area of the deck I cleared which is remaining just wet.

  42. 12z models and 0z Euro appear to have come north a bit for the Friday/Saturday system. GFS and CMC are coldest with a snow to sleet/ice scenario for most while the Euro and Icon have later/further north coastal redevelopment which would result in very little up front snow and a mostly sleet/ice to rain scenario.

    Where it stays all snow, currently looking like the ADK’s, VT and NH, could easily see double digit snows.

    My daughter has a softball tournament in Lake George this weekend and we are supposed to be driving up Friday PM after school so I am watching this storm evolution very closely.

    1. Seriously speaking, that could be a risky drive given the way the models show development. The whole thing has giant mess written all over it at this point anyways.

      1. Yes, I am wondering if they postpone the tournament or at least delay the games. Timing right now is terrible as they have games scheduled Friday night and starting again first thing Sat. AM. GFS has nearly 20″ of snow in the Lake George area for that system!

  44. For Boston, this event is like all the other snow events this season: Increments of 1 inch at a time. As a result, this winter is no longer a cellar-dweller, Yet, it feels very much like it belongs in the basement. I’ll take any inch of snow I can get, but it is slim pickings.

  46. I’m really seeing the effects of days before hype via social media way more than average in this event.

    Us real mets have essentially been squelched out across the “netwaves”. Discouraging.

    1. Here’s one quote I got this morning said to me (in person actually): “What happened to the big snowstorm? ‘They’ have been talking about the massive winter storm affecting millions of people and all we get is a few inches?”

      I rest my case.

      3. Well I wasn’t expecting a massive snow storm for sure,
        BUT I was expecting a little bit more than what I have seen so far. Only a few lonely flakes coming down now. 🙂

        1. I’m definitely not speaking of you. I know how you are (see JPD winter storm scale lol). 😉 I’m not talking about this blog at all really. Everyone here knows the deal. 🙂

          Just had to vent some of that frustration. I’m good! On we go! 🙂

          Just because it’s discouraging doesn’t mean I’m stopping my way of doing this. 🙂

          1. You do a superb job! Keep it going!

            I am not upset with you or any forecaster.
            There was always a concern about Eastern sections.
            I was “hoping” to muster 3 or 4 inches.

            Seriously, so far, barely an inch on snow covered areas and only got about 1/4 inch on the side walks.

            ZERO accumulation since about 6:30 this morning. 🙂

          2. I 100% get the venting. I’m apparently in the same venting mode today too. I’m trying to refocus in how spectacularly beautiful this storm is.

  48. I’m bullish on Fri night-Saturday storm.

    Seriously, a nice front end dump, topped by sleet and cold rain that won’t really melt much.

    And south of Boston too.

      1. Not fully.

        There’s some blocking to our north, so, cold is likely to be more plentiful initially and more resistant at low levels (sleet/ice).

        Even down here, I’d expect a few to a handful inches of snow followed by some sleet, ending with a period of cold rain that the snow will more absorb than be melted by.

  49. TK, you do an excellent job.

    When I complain about Boston’s snow `performance’ this season, it’s just me whining. We all knew heading into this event that it wouldn’t exactly be a blockbuster anywhere, and especially at or near the coast. I’m just glad Mark and JJ had a decent-sized storm.

  50. Models are definitely keying in on the drier interlude after this weekend. Northwest flow type of pattern, some resurgence by the Southeast ridge, and only weak/sheared out systems on the north side of it. Think that will be the story of the second week of March, maybe a little beyond. But that may change in a big way later in the month. As TK said, three letters: M-J-O

    1. Are you saying that we’ll have to wait until after meteorological spring to get an “all snow” event around here? Sigh.

    1. Unless we have a cold high due north, it’s still going bring in warm air due east from the ocean, which is what’s happening with this current system now. Passing us by to our south means little really.

  53. I will say this, the 2022-2023 winter has been a weird ride. Persistent SE ridge throughout causing late fall/early spring weather for a very long stretch, with a couple of notable exceptions: December 24-25 and February 3-4.

    But, no matter what happens moving forward, they can’t take away the 4 consecutive days of winter we had from Thursday to Monday. We had an actual snowpack in Boston, albeit only 2 crusty inches (it did stick around, though). And it really felt nice and wintry for 4 straight days.

  54. I know the op runs keep edging a bit further north, but I’m sticking to my bets on the blocking and something that trends back south a bit in the coming days.

      1. No, the mayor was already embarrassed twice. He wont’ be getting any last laugh. The move they made was foolish. Not even a debate on that one.

  58. Its too bad, this is steady enough precip, if it were in the upper 20s to low 30s today, probably would have been 2-4, 3-5 on non paved areas just from mid morning thru this evening.

    1. It has been snowing all day with some of it being quite moderate and we have less than the 3” we started with this am. Crazy day

  59. Sun angle definitely won out in eastern areas today. Loss for the HRRR, win for the RGEM and most of the global guidance there. Eric F summed it up well on Twitter: basically, south of the Pike forecast was right on target. Metro Boston and north of the Pike, some underperformance.

    1. Interesting that the RGEM nailed eastern MA but bombed in eastern CT/RI. Last night’s run had 2-4″ in these areas where a widespread 6-8″ fell.

      NAM/HRRR was good out our way but overdid it in eastern MA.

      Definitely helps knowing each models strengths and weaknesses in these types of situations.

  60. Cold rain in Back Bay. It’s raw outside. While yesterday felt nice – even though it was colder – today feels and looks miserable.

    1. Two camps setting up for the late week storm:

      GFS/CMC – colder system, heavy snow to sleet/ice

      Euro/Icon – warmer system, minimal snow to sleet/ice to rain

      Still plenty of time for changes.

    2. Even in this somewhat mild euro projection, there’s definite bagginess in the isobars showing cold air damming.

  63. We got about 2.5″ in Lunenburg.

    After 1.5″, I cleared the driveway. With the warmth and sun through the clouds, the additional inch didn’t accumulate on the cleared pavement. I beat the system! 😉

  64. I’ve always found it fascinating to observe the differences between how weather forecasts are done in different countries. I can’t show you the Dutch forecasts, as you won’t be able to understand them. But here’s how the BBC presents the weather for the UK: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cIQbGAcnKHQ

    Carol Kirkwood has been doing BBC forecasts for a long time. Here’s a blooper of sorts, which made the rounds. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0AMrOetIU_A&t=43s

    1. I love the way they do it there, and I am a fan of Carol. There’s also a guy that read the shipping forecasts for years (can’t remember his name) but he’s sampled on some songs by both Thomas Dolby and Tears for Fears, and has even appeared in a few talk shows and videos making fun of himself. I’ll have to dig those up soon.

  65. TK, I saw your note above on the MJO.

    GFS and Euro ensemble MJO forecasts are below. Both showing a strong Phase 8 as we head into March which is a SNOW phase for us (along with 1 and 2):

    ECMWF MJO:

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmf.shtml

    GFS MJO:

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/foregfs.shtml

    I also posted maps yesterday of the Euro EPS showing cold anomalies for the majority of March as well as a less hostile environment in the Pacific (EPO tanking and -PNA finally trending neutral).

    This is the type of setup that could actually deliver us a nice trough in the East and more traditional setup for an east coast snowstorm.

    I think March 10-20 is a watch period for something bigger. It’ll happen sometime in the 3/15-19 timeframe right in time for when we are away on our ski trip to Montana!

  66. Joshua posted a shot of the Northern Lights in Wales above.

    The Northern Lights were also visible in Upstate NY yesterday. Never seen anything like this in all my years growing up there. This shot was taken over Sacandaga Lake about 30 min. north of my mother’s house in Amsterdam:

    WNYT NewsChannel 13
    @WNYT

    AMAZING! Derek sent us this photo of the #NorthernLights over the Sacandaga Lake in #Edinburg, taken from the Batchellerville Bridge. ➡️

    https://twitter.com/WNYT/status/1630320749880680452?s=20

  67. 2nd biggest snowfall for inland CT as BDL recorded 5.8 inches of snow. The biggest back on December 11th when 6.2 inches fell. For the season 16.2 inches.

    1. The 7″ from this storm was the biggest of the season for me. Brings me to a whopping 18.5″ on the season!

  69. I reiterate, the “easy” winter has been a blessing for me. I’m quite happy about it. 🙂

    Imagine if every winter was how most weather nuts wished it to be.. We’d average more snow than Labrador and then I’d be worried about the balance of things. We’re not supposed to get more snow than Labrador. 🙂 These things happen for a reason. We get our averages from our extremes. Funny that!

    That said, don’t put away your winter stuff any time soon, and it doesn’t matter how it’s been. That’s looking back. I’m looking ahead when I make that statement. 🙂

  70. If I may take a guess what that translates to. This is not the last of the snow for the winter of 2022-2023.

    1. Definitely not the last. That has almost never occurred on the final day of February.

      Winter “ends” on the first day of spring. That’s a few weeks away. Winter weather can occur after the vernal equinox. Simple fact. 🙂

      And it doesn’t matter how it’s been up to this point. 🙂

        1. That’s what I’m saying. It doesn’t mean it’s necessarily going to be a storm like that one, but having events like that remind you what we have had, and not just once.

          I just don’t understand why every time we have a quiet winter and we’re not even halfway through that so many people have written it off, knowing FULL WELL what can happen. I mean personally, I don’t care. If it snows it snows, if it doesn’t it doesn’t. Winter is still winter to me, bare ground to high banks and deep snowpack. Our variety defines us.

          1. Yup, we are each different. To me Winter is Nothing without it’s fair share of snow. Does not have to be record breaking each year, but certainly MORE than this Winter to-date. 🙂

  71. It’s not being mentioned much yet, but some places that went to rain may be in for a black ice surprise later tonight / tomorrow morning. Some folks may end up wishing this was a colder / snow set-up. Might as well get the word out on that now.

    Rain / melting snow, no wind to dry it, clearing, temp dropping into the 20s. Ouch. That one can be filed under “be careful what you wish for”. At least it rises back above freezing with some benefit of the sun to get that all melted later in the morning tomorrow.

    1. Oh Boy! We don’t need that!!!

      Fortunately, I purchased a couple of TUBS of Salt prior to the storm “Just’ in case. 🙂

  72. My son works in East Boston and he just texted me that it
    RAINED in East Boston all day. 🙂

    Me thinks Logan does NOT make 3 inches so unless something
    strange happens this evening I won’t have to eat my snow shovel.

  73. I wouldn’t rule out some minor colder/southward shifts with the Friday night/Saturday storm. It will share some overarching similarities with the current storm. One thing that catches my eye though is the strength and size of the primary low. Potentially going near to below 980mb in the Missouri area on Thursday night – very rare if not near record for a non-tropical low at that latitude. A low that strong should push a lot of warm air aloft northward. My interpretation would be to bet on more sleet over snow in a lot of SNE.

    Also, late Thursday into Friday is likely to be a violent period of weather in parts of the Deep South. SPC has a big enhanced risk area out in their Day 3 outlook. That’ll bump up to Moderate Risk, at least…

  74. I think this may apply to more than just Worcester cty.

    Special Weather Statement
    for Southern Worcester County

    Issued by National Weather Service
    Boston, MA
    5:14 PM EST Tue, Feb 28, 2023

    …AREAS OF BLACK ICE MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS…

    The lingering areas of light rain/snow will come to an end by mid-evening. While current temperatures were above freezing…they will fall below freezing later this evening and into the overnight hours. This combined with light winds will result in conditions favorable for the formation of black ice as the night wears along. There may also may be areas of localized dense ground fog too.

    Motorists traveling this evening and especially into the overnight hours should be prepared for areas of fog and black ice. Roads that appear wet may actually be icy…so please drive with extra caution.

    1. I do think we will find this a more widespread issue overnight including eastern MA and maybe right to the coastline. Exception may be CC & Islands.

      1. Yep. That is why I thought it applies to more than just this area. I saw it for at least parts of if not the whole Plymouth cty

  75. TK, thanks for reminding me of the shipping forecasts. On my commute from The Hague to Amstelveen (near Amsterdam) in the early 90s, I used to listen to BBC Radio 4 on the longwave. This was on my car radio (yes, my radio had longwave). They did an excellent news show, followed by the shipping forecast. I used to recite it to my then wife. Perhaps this is why she’s now my ex-wife. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cRMGKQBfi8Y

    1. Well as a model the GFS continues to be very questionable as the broken update has not been fixed. It gets a few things “ok” but in general is just not trustworthy.

      The guidance is just going to do it’s usual thing and move around depending on how each initialization of each run goes applying the biases etc. – nothing new there. I don’t think any particular model shines right now.

      1. The GFS has actually been leading the way with this storm evolution so far and has been showing this solution for a couple days now. Has taken the other models several runs to latch on. I thought it outperformed the Euro with this storm as well.

        I am guessing they must have made a few tweaks with this model. It may still be broken, but seems to be performing better since when they first rolled this latest version out.

  80. One way to tell it’s an active pattern: The high clouds from the warm front that approaches late Wednesday are already starting to drift over the low clouds that are still associated with the back end of the current storm system. 🙂 This is taking place over central Lake Erie.

  84. Well Worcester is going to leave Boston in the dust after another 53″ 🙂

    The late week storm and a major nor’easter in the long range around 3/15 are responsible for those big numbers on that run.

    That said, I would not at all be surprised to see an east coast storm around that time period with the teleconnection forecasts heading into the second and third week of March.

    1. You want a real laugh, look at the 10:1 map, over 70 inches just NW of Boston and still not doing snowing at 384…..

      1. That’s not a lock. It’s one model run. Snow is very much in play for Boston, and some areas to the south, as well as sleet. Actually, THAT model run shows frozen precip from Boston to the South Shore, not rain.

        Winter ends in late March and the pattern upcoming is quite conducive to winter weather events.

        By the way a heads up, watch for black ice down your way tonight – might be quite extensive.

    1. Yup! Happens every March1. 😉 Unfortunately the weather pattern for the first few weeks of Met. Spring is going to heavily remind everybody that it’s still Astro. Winter. 😉

    2. Vanuatu and the Salomon islands? Almost looks like a small tropical storm heading south down the island chain.

      1. Yes ! Well done Mark !! I looked it up and you got the location !

        But it’s a cat 3 hurricane. Compact but intense. Tropical cyclone Judy.

  88. Ho hum, another 9 feet this week at the UC Berkeley snow lab…

    UC Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab
    @UCB_CSSL
    8h

    A very light and fluffy 36″ (91.5 cm) of new #snow over the last 24 hours! That brings our 2-day total to 52.2″ (132.5 cm) and our 7-day total to 109.3″ (277.5 cm)! We are now within 6.5 feet of our 2016/2017 winter season (47.77 feet).

    Plenty more on the way!

    https://twitter.com/mikebettes/status/1630624390634192923?s=20

    1. The west, relatively speaking, is going to have tons and tons of mountain snow and has received a lot of rain.

      Looking to the warm season, I wonder if that might encourage trofiness to continue out west this summer, with avg or above avg 500 mb heights in the east ???????

      Ie….. if the west was parched, I’d tend to think west in the ridge, etc. but I wonder if this winter flips that summer script.

    2. Could be big problems in CA as we get into March. With the impending colder pattern in the East, CA is going to warm up but continue in an active pattern. Heavy rains and mild temps in areas that have a deep snowpack now could spell some serious flooding problems.

      2. If we do get one or two big, subtropically enhanced atmospheric rivers (“Pineapple Express”), that’ll definitely be a major problem. As you implied, those would be much warmer storms than the others this winter. Take a look at the current snow-water equivalents over the Sierras. They are *obscene*. As much as 6 feet of liquid equivalent in that snowpack.

        https://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/?product=zeroSWE&zoom=7&lat=37.292&lng=-120.205

        By April/May, the dry season sets in and that will melt off gradually. But we’ll be sweating bullets over the next month, especially with the way the middle of the month is looking…

        1. Let’s hope it warms up and stays relatively dry in March. Unfortunately the models don’t look good right now as far as potential for some warmer atmospheric river events in March. I’d be very concerned if I lived anywhere near a watercourse.

  89. You know mark, I was talking about that with a friend of mine today. I don’t know why it’s not being mentioned much, but I think it’s going to be a real threat not too far in the future for them. I think the other thing that has to be taken into consideration are the acres of land scorched by those large wildfires last summer, the vegetation will not be there to absorb all of that moisture, add to that the way about average snowpack and additional rain and that is a recipe for not only major floods but perhaps some large landslides also.

  90. Looking at 00z NAM.

    12z temp projected at Logan: 28F, dew point: 27F.

    I know TK and NWS have mentioned it. Black ice.

    Tomorrow morning could be, probably will be significantly more challenging than this morning in eastern New England. Could be widespread slippery.

    1. Very high, close to 100% relative humidity projected with temps below 32F.

      Leave extra time tomorrow morning.

  91. The 00z op runs did trend colder for the next system.

    It’s somewhat similar to the last system, where the upper feature is weakening on approach some, because of sinking air aloft to our northeast.

    So, now, the question is, in the next 48 hrs, will we find out this is going to behave like the last one and the initial batch of heaviest snow gets directed to our southwest ?

    If this coming Saturday sees something similar to yesterday’s follow up precip, I do think that would have a colder outcome, be it snow or ice, compared to yesterday’s mid 30s rain or very wet snow.

  93. As WxWatcher pointed out yesterday, our next system has a severe side to it before it arrives here. Next 3 days. Following is today, tomorrow and Friday’s highlighted areas from SPC. Tomorrow is particularly notable.

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_0700_torn.gif

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_0700_wind.gif

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0830.gif

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