Thursday March 2 2023 Forecast (7:12AM)

236 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 2-6)

The very active pattern goes on, but light is at the end of the tunnel (or at the end of the 5-day)! First, low pressure sliding northeastward through the Ohio Valley toward the interior Northeast will redevelop just south and southeast of New England today before moving steadily and quickly seaward. This system brings a swath of rainfall to our region with an atmosphere too mild to support snow, but surface temperatures cold enough so that some of that rain will be in the form of freezing rain from the Worcester Hills to the Monadnock region of southwestern NH – so use extra caution if traveling in those areas. Temperatures will rise above freezing in these areas around mid morning, putting an end to any icing. Rainfall exits our region later this morning and we have a drying trend from midday on, with the potential for some breaks of sun before day’s end. A sliver of high pressure brings dry weather tonight into Friday, but clouds will already be streaming in quickly on Friday ahead of our next storm. When all is said and done, this low pressure system will behave similarly to our last couple more important storm systems, with a primary low heading for the Great Lakes and redeveloping to move out just south of New England. But as has been the case all winter and even with a more recent pattern change to slightly colder, we don’t have quite the setup for just a snow event, so there will be a variety of precipitation, with most snow to the north and far less to the south where more rain will be involved. The rain-snow line is a little tricky with this, with even at this stage some significant differences in guidance, but I’m not really changing my initial idea from yesterday, which will be reflected in my snowfall amounts in the detailed forecast). Steadiest precipitation window is 12 hours – midnight Friday night to noon Saturday. As slightly colder air overtakes the region behind the storm, a period of scattered snow showers will be with us from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning as an inverted trough of low pressure (basically the remains of the primary low pressure area) swings through our region from northwest to southeast. The next phase of our late winter pattern emerges Monday with low pressure to the east, high pressure to the west, and a drier but chilly northwesterly air flow.

TODAY: Overcast this morning with rain likely (some freezing rain in portions of north central MA to southwestern NH for a while early), tapering off by late morning. Mostly cloudy this afternoon but a few breaks of sun are possible before the end of the day. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming NW 5-15 MPH later in the day.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow arrives west to east but mixed with sleet/rain South Coast which then advances north toward I-90 overnight. Lows 28-35. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Overcast through midday with snow southern NH and far northern MA, snow and sleet possibly mixed with rain Cape Ann MA down 128 to I-90 belt, and some mix but mostly rain to the south. Expected snow accumulation from little or nothing along the South Coast to a coating to 2 inches just away from immediate South Coast to the MA South Shore, 2-4 inches Boston (maybe under 2 Logan Airport) to Cape Ann MA westward along the I-90 belt, 4-8 inches interior northeastern MA through central and north central MA northward through southern NH except possibly under 4 inches at the NH Seacoast. Mostly cloudy with lingering snow showers during the afternoon. Highs 31-38. Wind E-NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers during the morning. Partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 7-11)

Overall set-up features low pressure east of New England and high pressure from Canada to the Midwest through at least mid period with a generally dry and chilly northwesterly air flow, but not immune to a disturbance or two bringing a few snow showers. Pattern may relax enough to allow the next low pressure system from the west to approach by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 12-16)

Return to unsettled pattern for mid March including some lingering threats of wintry precipitation. Temperatures near to below normal.

236 thoughts on “Thursday March 2 2023 Forecast (7:12AM)”

    2. Thank you, North, for mentioning this. It prompted me to go back to last night.

      What an awesome comment, TK. I have goosebumps. And could not agree more with every single word.

  3. Thanks TK !

    Team colder for weekend event, admission is free 🙂 🙂 🙂

    Hope severe weather isn’t too bad today down in the south.

      1. I was a little worried about the early part of this severe weather season given the SE ridge and active pattern.

    3. I’ll join any team that supports colder and snowier. I’ve already gone down into ice water with the ship once….why not try again

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Gfs and icon have much more snow.
    Euro trending upward I may be leaning the other way on this one.
    Team snowier.

    1. at the very least, I think my area stays frozen this time. just a question of how much snow and how much sleet. If more sleet TKs 2-4 will be realized, if more snow, the 4-8 could apply for my area as well Will be interesting to watch
      Now the 12z runs will dash all my hopes.

  5. One of the best things about this blog in my opinion is the real time reports we get from everyone spread across the region…for instance if it starts sleeting where mark is we know the warm air aloft is making its way north or those of us north of Boston will be the first to report cold seeping down from portsmouth or marine influence from those near the coast….can’t really get that info anywhere else…big thanks to TK for keeping this going all these years

    2. Excellent comment. Even in summer, if SC or Mark post about a storm, I can often tell what is headed this way.

      It was Todd Gross’s plan with his weather spotters. Pete took it over but oddly WHDH told Pete to end it.

  6. Thanks TK.

    Ocean temperatures = 41F

    Way to “warm” for this time of year. Normal should be 35-38F. Need more cold to our north.

    1. Current: 41.18
      Average: 37.43

      Departure: + 3.75

      However, 41 is cold enough under the right circumstances.

  7. Based on my thinking only I’m still going with it’s too warm & I do not think my area will see much of snow , at best possibility of a coating if even . The projected temperature for pembroke is 36 degrees & the temperature looks to be the same for Boston .

    2. Euro came in a lot colder overnight and increased its snowfall further south.

      Kept my fcst the same.

        1. From this HRRR projection, I favor everything, including a dry slot, to be just a bit further south.

          I’d go with a 80-90% / 10-20% blend of snow depth change projection / regular snow projection

        2. Slowly is another term I’ll add to my south of the pike bad bad lost. 4.7 is pathetic.

          Oh my……JPD may be having some influence on me

  9. 12Z HRRR has sleet for most of SNE by 7AM Saturday, but
    not too heavy

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2023030212&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Kuchera snow as of 7AM Sat

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023030212&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Snow Depth Change

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snodpc_acc-imp&rh=2023030212&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    In my opinion, this event is getting a bit MORE interesting. 🙂

  10. Is it really any wonder why people get the wrong idea about upcoming weather? It seems that the less “exciting” the weather is, the more it is massaged to get the clicks.

    I really like Ch 5 weather, but this is like “Prices Slashed Up to 50%.” >:D

    https://ibb.co/VtSf8r7

    1. Compare hr 45 on 12z to hr 57 on 00z.

      Its snow/frozen shifted about 20 miles south and southwest.

      Its coming, but the NAM is going to adjust at a dreadfully slow rate. Might be another day.

    1. I have a theory on the 3Km NAM and I have no idea if it has any accuracy.

      You know how in summer, when there’s a tropical system, the other models are at 950 mb and the 3Km NAM is at like 912 mb ?

      Well, its doing it with this mid latitude cyclone too.

      The 3Km NAM is at 976 mb in the Mississippi Valley, while the other models are closer to 980 or 981 mb.

      If the primary is more intense, then I’d think the downstream implication would be less snow.

      1. Interesting.
        I am hanging my hat on the fact that the EURO had increased SNOW over the its previous run, that coupled with the GFS and the ICON and now to a lesser degree the HRRR.

        Waiting on the rest of the 12Z guidance.

        I hope I don’t get dashed!

  16. I take it back on the ICON. I was using the 0Z run.
    6Z run of ICON is very WARM. Oh well.

    12Z running now.

  17. Thanks, TK.

    It rained quite a bit overnight. More than I expected.

    One thing that is not in doubt is that this spring will not feature brush fires, at least not in coastal SNE. Of course, the summer is a long way off, and things can change prior to that season.

  18. Wow. I had to go 43 comments at 10:00 to finally thank you, TK

    Excellent blog and comments throughout.

  20. Unrelated topic, but I’m curious to know if others are experiencing this problem. In all my 43 plus years of international travel, I have never seen such discrepancies between the prices of roundtrip flights originating in the U.S. versus originating in Europe. I compared, for example, a May/June roundtrip Boston-Amsterdam flight to a Amsterdam-Boston flight – same days of travel, same airline, same everything – and the difference is astounding. The price of the flight originating in the U.S. is more than twice as much. It’s a difference of $1,000!

    Europeans tend to be more price-conscious than Americans, and their airline travel market is more competitive, to be sure, but such a difference is massive. I have no explanation for it whatsoever.

  24. Thanks TK.

    This looks very close to being a significant snowstorm (6+) at least down to the Pike and into the metro Boston area. In fact, maybe more likely than not at this point… the hi res stuff looks *cold*. Definitely can’t ignore that. My thoughts aren’t that different than TK’s, but would generally shift the “zones” 10-20 miles south and probably throw in an 8-12” band for interior areas north of the Pike.

    1. I’m ready to do that myself…

      This morning I erred on the side of “persistence” … which often works …. until it doesn’t work. 😉

      1. And it’s not even like it’s ~that~ different or some huge change. But just 10-20 miles, 2-3 degrees, and voila 🙂

    2. I see you substituted south of the pike with down to he pike. I can’t stop laughing. Well done!!

  25. GFS certainly has been consistent. I struggle to just toss the NAM since we are within 36 hours.

    I still feel this one is colder and rain/snow line will be further south than forecast but we shall see. Clearly overnight is better timing wise for accumulations.

  26. On my initial forecasts for our clients last night (Boston area up into central NH), my forecasts were:

    3-5″ Boston (change to sleet/rain for a while)
    3-6″ Metro West (brief change to sleet/rain)
    4-8″ Merrimack Valley (some sleet mixing in)
    5-10″ Southern NH/NH Seacoast (possibly a little sleet?)
    6-12″ Central NH (all snow)

    Unless something really changes with the 12z models, I doubt I’ll change that much when I write my Weekend Outlook blog this afternoon.

    1. I should clarify – this is our operational clients (cities+towns/school districts, etc). We have radio stations all over the county and the Caribbean. The local radio stations (like WSAR), I’ll put in amounts starting tonight.

  28. Camp colder is filling up.

    Still more room 🙂 🙂 🙂

    Celtics and beverages commence at 7:30pm tomorrow night.

  29. With all due respect to any forecaster who may have done this, in my meteorological opinion, yesterday was definitely not the day to toss the eggs in one model basket.

    This setup is too fragile.

    1. Yeah, my forecasts last night (listed above), are in between the heavier (global) models, and the light (hi-resolution) models. I figured a compromise was a good start, and I’d see which way to lean (if at all) as we got closer.

      1. I was close to that with a slightly milder lean but still not a drastic adjustment if needed.

    1. Surface temps at boston 33 tops at 34 at the warmest part.
      What is the reason for such low 10:1 snow?
      If it is sleet, where is the warm layer. Not showing at
      925,850 or 700 mb.

      Tis a mystery to me.

  33. I believe I read of the pressure drops below 980 it would be the lowest ever recorded for that region. I remember a storm a few years ago with thunderstorms down south were strong that they robbed our system and we busted.

  35. TK. Is this my area? I apologize as I am never sure how this area is referred to….except of course those dreaded four words …..

    “……interior northeastern MA through central and north central MA northward through southern NH except possibly under 4 inches at the NH Seacoast. …”

    I didn’t see this area in SAK’s post either. BUT I may well be reading incorrectly

  37. Just curious if people see a ceiling amount of snow for the metro west area. The tweaks are coming in but don’t know if there is kind of a line in the sand. Also, what are wind expectations?

    Busy day for the Bruins with another trade and signing Pasta.

  38. Interesting they pretty much every single Meteorologist that I follow on Twitter is going warmer. Fun storm to track as always.

  40. Here is an excerpt from the Taunton NWS office regarding our upcoming storm system:

    At this time, it appears
    that a warm nose around 700mb will swing through the region
    after midnight Saturday, with the NAM stretching the warm nose
    furthest north, all the way to the MA/NH border. We expect that
    we will again have precipitation type/mixing issues, mainly in
    the form of sleet, across portions of MA, especially below
    600-800ft in elevation.

    So the warm nose is approximately 700 mb or “about” 10,00 feet or so.

    Ok, then can someone tell me WHY OH WHY they
    said this: mainly in
    the form of sleet, across portions of MA, especially below
    600-800ft in elevation.

    If the warm nose is at 10,000 feet then why would there be a greater possibility BELOW elevations of 600-800 feet,
    If the warm nose is there it will Affect elevations above
    600-800 feet just as much. That is an INSANE statement
    in my opinion.

    2. OR why don’t they say at those elevations the warm nose
      may not penetrate or some such wording?????
      As worded it is ludicrous!

    3. This long range part of their discussion has been seemingly unchanged for more than 24 hrs when there’s been some noticeable trends during that time period.

      Kind of awaiting some new thoughts from them for this time period.

  41. Boy, a large part of the medium range appears to be ……

    some AM sun, the strong March sun bubbles up clouds due to instability in a chilly airmass aloft offering a chance of passing afternoon snow flurries/snow showers.

    Rinse and repeat …………..

        1. It actually doesn’t matter to me either way , I’m just sticking with Warmer temps that’s all .

  44. Weather terminology is certainly interesting. I learned a new phrase today; “warm nose.” Add to that some of the weirder terms that are bandied about, but have genuine meteorological meaning: “Toad Strangler,” “Crepuscular Rays,” “Haboob,” and “Bombogenesis” come to mind.

      1. Cold punch gets used more often.

        I guess this sets up the possibility of a cold punch to the warm nose. 😉

  48. If 700mb is ok temp wise and its -6C at 850mb, which I think is around 23F, then its going to snow at 34F at the sfc

    That may not be a thick layer of 34F at all if its -6C at 850mb.

    Like, it might be 32F only a few hundred ft above the ground, whereas this past Tuesday, I wonder if we would have had to get to 1,000 ft or more before getting to the freezing point. (Actually, it was cause 1,000 ft Worcester Airport was 33F while it snowed Tuesday).

    1. WAIT JUST A DARN MINUTE HERE!!!

      It says 8PM SAT through 8AM Sunday. OK then. I get it, but
      WHERE’S the BEEF?????

      1. DAMN! I wish they would fix that. It is most misleading and they don’t have totals for the real event. What up with that???? MOST DISAPPOINTED!

  51. Something is amiss.

    8pm Saturday, the last of the precip on all the models is exiting Cape Cod.

    1. That map is an aberration.

      It is probably their snow totals for Friday night into Saturday which would be equally pathetic!!

    1. I see that and it now has snow totals for overnight tonight when it ain’t doing anything at all, so WHY the feakin map?
      GIMMIE a Break.

      They have 1 more try, then it’s 3 strikes and OUT!

    1. Just a quick glance I think that map is pretty reasonable but I still have to look at a few more things this afternoon to see if I fully agree.

  54. So, I think we have another weather issue with this system increasing ……….

    Wet snow amounts increasing closer and closer to the coast AND the secondary looks stronger with decent wind even somewhat inland.

    Thinking power issues is a potential concern where a moderate wet snow and wind event overlap. That might cover a decent area in eastern Mass.

  56. 18z nam is warmer than 12z…very different than most other guidance…as Tom has said, it overamped the primary and took longer for the secondary to take over

  57. 3km 18z NAM is actually slightly colder than the 12km version, and the model itself is now completely alone – a complete outlier against all global and other short range guidance.

    Based on everything I’ve seen, I’d go with the #’s outlined on SAK’s update. I won’t edit my blog post from this morning to reflect a slight adjustment now, but barring any further significant changes, I’ll tweak my numbers for tomorrow morning’s post.

    I’m curious to see NWS’s map, but they are apparently having issues with getting it posted / uploaded / etc / whatever … hopefully that’s fixed in short order.

  59. Most of the models seem to indicate a slug of precip, followed by a period of lighter precip, followed by heavier precip as the coastal really takes over.

    Could be very interesting.

      1. It’s going to go either way. It’s just a matter of the atmospheric temp profile – down to details.

  60. 18Z RDPS is coming in Warmer.
    Snow to a good slug of sleet then RAIN!!!!
    And Rain well inland!!!

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023030218&fh=45&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023030218&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023030218&fh=51&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!

    Kuchera Snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023030218&fh=57&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    1. Yup, you’re correct. Here is their text version of the snow map:

      Highest accum expected north of the Mass pike and particularly in
      the Route 2 corridor where 6-12 inches is possible, highest amounts
      near NH/VT border. Again, this is highly dependent on northward
      extent of warm nose. Further N and we have more sleet and less snow,
      Further S means more snow. Not expecting any snow load issues as
      heavy wet snow not expected where highest amounts occur. Snowfall
      amounts decrease as you head south of the Pike with amounts an inch
      or less near the south coast, and around 2 inches along the I-95
      corridor.

  62. Somewhere between the “expected” and “high end” in regards to the NWS fcst maps.

  63. With regards to the 18s RDPS …..

    The whole key, I think, on how this goes is that block which you can see in this water vapor loop in northeast Canada.

    It’s not the strongest block and it is fairly far to our northeast.

    The RDPS solution is warm because it doesn’t think the block holds the 500 mb feature back as far as the GFS and Euro. And then that brings the secondary further north and so on.

    But, I don’t buy the features being able to get that far north, like on the RDPS.

    Todays little ripple kind of either snuck over us or redeveloped SE of us. I think that’s a foreshadowing of the blocks effectiveness to make the system behave more like a blend of what the GFS and euro are showing.

  65. I think I’m ready to add an inch or 2 to my morning thought.

    3, maybe 4 at Logan total event.

    5-6 in JP

    6-9, maybe 10 out to Worcester and Merrimack valley. 9-10 elevated, 6 in low elevations.

      2. It wants Dave to say “Cowabunga!”. Those have been absent all winter. 😛

        1. NOT with one model showing that. When most on board and all are that high, perhaps.

          Still in normal years 12 inches doesn’t quite rate a COWABUNGA. But this year, I think it would.

          But NOT YET. Not when the NAMS are screwing up the works!!

          1. Interesting – I didn’t realize that COWABUNGA is a relative term. This winter, maybe you should use the related but weaker CALFABUNGA.

          2. What does your instinct tell you ?

            After digesting all the info we’ve seen today and the trends from yesterday, what’s your feeling ? How about on the NAMS ?

            I personally think the NAMs are

        1. Yes, always. Hadi, Alisonrod, and a few others tend to come aboard when the possibility of winter storms approach. Love their input.

          1. Oh darn. I’m sorry to hear that and hope you feel 100% soon. Meanwhile, we are lucky to have you here

  67. Well, clouds did end up breaking for sun, at least partially, in a lot of the region today. Should have at least a partial view of the night-after-the-closest with Venus & Jupiter in the evening sky. I got a good shot of it the other night and will try again tonight. Bummer it wasn’t visible late night but the timing of that system was “just so”.

  68. In this unique system, I continue to think a major piece is the block in far northeast Canada.

    Ok, re: NAMS, I can only run it nationally. It doesn’t have a continental run.

    Does that mean it doesn’t get as much data thrown into it over a bigger geographic area compared to the global models ?

    But …. That block has to be factored in here. Maybe the global models factor it in better than the NAMs would given the block’s geographic location ??????????

  69. Watched Eric tonight. He wasn’t waffling on amounts, but admitted it’s tough to forecast when you’re trying to figure in the warmth factor. His accumulations seem a tad low though.

    2. Just watched Eric and Mike Wankum and both had relatively low totals (2-4, 3-6) as do other Mets I saw during the day. Are the warmer temps and lower amounts winning the battle?

      1. Those reasonable forecasts This isn’t going to be a double digit snowfall for Boston. That’s for areas well west and north.

    3. Water is at 41 degrees this will not be a big storm & temperatures in the mid 30s to start quickly going into upper 30s

      1. I don’t think people were trying to say “big storm” for Boston. It’s not all or nothing you know. 🙂 On top of that, the water temp is only ONE factor in this. What we don’t have this time is the bulk of the snow falling during the day. This time it’s nocturnal for the first half of the best rates for eastern areas. Last time that was to the southwest at night and in the eastern areas during daylight.

        1. The projected temperature in Boston tomorrow night at 10 pm right through 4pm is 36 degrees, is that not correct

          1. So between the projected temperature if 36 is correct & the water temperature at 41 degrees that’s two factors going against it , Tk I’m not the experienced guy here but those are two key components there correct

            1. The water temp & onshore wind is a negative factor.

              The air temp at Logan should be 32-34 during the heaviest overnight snowfall, with the intensity somewhat making up for the relatively mild temp, allowing for some accumulation there, most limited right at the water, building up but a couple or a few inches just inland. This goes on during the overnight hours. By the time the sunlight climbs well into the sky Saturday we’ll have had one more burst of snow with colder air going through, so this will help flip any mixing back to snow and top it off with some additional accumulation.

              No, not a “big” storm at Boston, but they’ll do better than they did Tuesday.

    1. Except that the bulk of this is falling from midnight to dawn. Sun angle was a problem on Tuesday. It won’t be on this one.

  73. RAP model gives Boston over 3 inches of snow despite a change to rain and moving the low center across southeastern MA (north of the Canal) which is too far north anyway.

    1. Exactly, this L is passing south enough to hopefully keep us cold most of the storm. Really want to see the 00z stuff tonight.

  74. Thanks, TK:

    Tonight’s Way-Back Machine brings us to five years ago today with a major wind storm and coastal flooding.

    1. Remember that one well. We flew out on the last flight out of Logan to NC to see my as she passed away.

  76. If you have a second, you can following the timeline and evolution of the storm with the more than 400 comments!

  77. Dallas went from 77F to 55F and gusted to 53 mph.

    Quite a long squall line in Texas on-going.

  79. I’m staying the course 🙂

    I think that HRRR run deepens the primary too much and then that affects everything that follows.

  80. The closest a Boston team has come to being as dominant as this year’s edition of the Bruins: 1985-1986 Celtics; 2018 Red Sox. But, I think the Bruins are actually more dominant than either of the aforementioned teams. It’s harder in hockey to maintain dominance as the Bruins have. Well, that’s my opinion. We’ll see how the post-season goes. But, so far, it’s been a memorable regular season.

  81. I’m more or less in your camp Tom. Obviously, don’t expect some huge snowstorm in Boston or points nearby and southward, but I continue to lean towards the colder camp.

    Interesting about the Winter Storm Watch not extending all the way to the MA borders with CT and RI. Even Worcester proper is not included.

    I’ve had to make those calls too many times to ever try to “backseat drive”. But it does speak to some challenges with the Winter Storm Watch product. It’s widely perceived that converting a Watch to an Advisory is a downgrade. It’s not. It’s actually an upgrade (and is coded as such in the header of the product) via projecting an increased level of confidence in disruptive impacts. But perception is reality, and I think there’s a real fear of being too liberal issuing the Watch and then perceived as “busting” if you convert it to an Advisory versus a Warning. When in reality, the goal should absolutely not be for every Watch to convert to a Warning. It’s not just against policy, it’s bad science.

    Of course, part of the problem is also the confusing nature of “Advisories” in general, and the days of that term are likely numbered…

      1. Thanks Vicki, and yeah, it’s a little technical and kind of a random musing, but something I’ve seen and dealt with enough that I figured I’d chime in. Not a “right vs wrong” thing per se, but there’s definitely conversations to be had about the best ways to go about those sorts of things.

        1. I always enjoy random bits of information. They help us see the entire picture. Thanks again!!

    2. 🙂

      I wouldn’t want that responsibility of those watch/warnings/advisories/special statements, etc.

      Kudos to all Mets who have to do that, make public forecasts, forecast for private industry, etc. Huge responsibility.

  82. 00z NAM (both 12km & 3km) is colder, and has increased snowfall in Boston by 2 to 3 times over the 18z run.

  83. Funny, both 00z Nams looked awful, but if I read them right, have their largest snow projections for Boston yet.

      1. Yeah don’t see this much for sure. But I also disagree about c- 2 in the city. Maybe Logan but for example the west suburbs should do around 6 give or take

  87. Well, Eric Fisher is not a believer in much snow at all in Boston. I’m going with him, in part, because there is so little cold air to work with and the wind will be primarily from the east. As SSK said, the water temp is way above normal. Along with the lack of a true cold air high to our north that’s going to impact the immediate coast. I’m not sure if Boston ever goes below 34F tomorrow night, though it will on Saturday night. My guess at this time is Boston has a total of around an inch of gloppy snow. Providence will be similar, but might have a bit more before the transition to cold rain.

  88. Wankum’s thoughts:

    I’m basing my forecast on the Euro & NAM models. The GFS has a cold bias so it has to be discounted. The Euro is slightly cooler today than yesterday, but not by much. The wild card is the warm ocean. As easterly winds pick up and push warm air inland it will be hard to get higher totals at the coast. #wcvb

    1. Really curious how this shakes out. What he forgets to mention is that the NAM has had a warm bias.

      Secretly I am rooting against this one :(. My youngest has a playoff game and they are the number 1 seed from their division Saturday at 8 AM.

    2. But if you look at my link below, and I admit it is late so my eyes are half closed, mikes numbers are higher by a tick than Eric’s

      Doesn’t quite make sense

  89. I don’t think anyone has thought this would be a big event. Many..including me…hope maybe but that is wishcasting and most made that very clear. But throughout every one of the links and the phenomenal discussion was shared in what was always the hallmark of this blog,,,,to not only educate but to enjoy the anticipation

    Pete and Eric’s thoughts are below and have been close to the same throughout as have others. PLEASE NOTE the first map is Eric’s from last night and the second is Eric’s from tonight. Longshot mentioned Eric’s somewhat subtle shift of cold to the south tonight. Third is Pete’s map

    https://imgur.com/a/PpMYRiC

  93. 6z GFS running as I type and looks good so far. Has around a foot in Boston using Kuchera and 19 inches with 10:1. I probably could cut those numbers in half and you get the range of 6-10, but clearly most folks are just tossing it.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023030306&fh=48&r=us_state_ne_s&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023030306&fh=69&r=us_state_ne_s&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

  96. I would add since we’ve been out of practice but watch the coastal front. Big impact on numbers.

    1. Don’t think we’ll have a classic coastal front on this event. Not the right set-up. No cold feed from the north pronounced enough to set up the contrast.

  97. Well, I think I’ll be watching the pressure of the “primary” low today and see how it matches up against what the 00z models projected.

    While still a colder scenario than Mon-Tues, I do feel like the 00z suite was a bit milder aloft and at the surface. I think that happened because the primary was stronger on most.

  98. Lowest 10z pressure I could find was 29.19 in = 988.5 mb

    10z projected pressure on 00z HRRR is 987 mb

  99. Taking a look at short range stuff and they all show a big front end dump and then warming up and going over. I think the GFS is overdoing the cold when I look.

    1. The GFS is DEFINITELY overdoing the cold. I never bought that full-on. It has a cold bias as much as some of the short range guidance can have a warm one. As SAK mentioned yesterday, the best starting point was somewhere in between those obvious biases. This leads to the least amount of adjusting to do with snowfall #’s. I hardly changed mine at all from yesterday.

  101. How do you get an effective secondary storm with such an intense Primary? Answer, not very easily and it takes TOO long to get going. That will be our downfall, if that happens.

    NOT liking the trends. We’ll see IF there are any changes with
    the 12Z guidance. I got caught up yesterday and was in camp colder/snowier. Then, one by one, models started caving.

    BUT, the 6Z GFS stays the course, while others not as much.
    True the NAMS were colder, but still don’t deliver much.

    12Z HRRR will be the 1st 12Z run available in about an hour
    or so. We shall see.

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