More Dry, More Cool

81 Comments

8:26PM

High pressure dominates through Saturday. An ocean storm tracks northward just east of New England over the weekend then retrogrades back toward the area during Sunday. The thrust of this low will be north of the forecast area from late Sunday into next week. This pattern supports cool, mostly dry weather, so there will be some threat of showers starting Sunday into next week. Widespread significant rain is not expected. High fire danger will continue.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear nights and mostly sunny to partly cloudy days. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s. Wind mostly N 5-15 MPH, gusting 20-25 MPH at times.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 47. High 59.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: Variably cloudy with a daily risk of scattered showers. Lows in the 30s and highs in the 50s each day.

81 thoughts on “More Dry, More Cool”

  1. Thanks TK as always. Do you have any thoughts as to what El Nino could bring this upcoming summer?

    1. So far the only thing I feel pretty confident of is below normal tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic.

  2. Have not posted in a while, so not sure if anybody has said this, but why couldn’t we have had this blocking going on in the middle of winter. Atleast we would have had some cold weather.

    1. You’re not missing anything. Like I said before, pretty normal early April except it’s drier than normal. I just don’t like it. I’m from the south, so even after 20 years up here, to me, April should be in the 70’s since that’s what I grew up with. April’s probably my least favorite month up here. Most of the month just teases warm weather. May cant get here fast enough 🙂

      1. Got it Brad and see what you mean. It sure depends on what you grow up with. Since I’m New England born and bred, I am sure I’d feel the same as you living in any area that didn’t have seasons and especially had a warm Christmas.

        I’ve always loved the “teases” as it’s the promise of something new just around the corner. It’s why I love the four seasons – each unique. And I love that a touch of each season is thrown into the others.

        1. Well, I could easily only live with one season. 🙂

          I have 22 more years to retire and then I put New England in the rear view mirror. I haven’t figured out yet where to, but I we’ve thought about the Dominican or maybe St Kits. For sure somewhere closer to 22.5 degrees north. I wouldnt mind being more equitorial than that even. When I’m 67, I don’t even want to own a coat. And contrary to popular belief, you do get 4 seasons in Oklahoma. Winter is dec, jan and half of feb, spring runs to mid may, summer thru late sept, early oct, then fall. And no cut off lows, with 53 degrees in June!

              1. I have no idea. It shows up only when I use mt iPhone or iPad. I think it’s set up in word press but I don’t get it when I use my computer.

            2. When I lived in Texas not many family’s moved away and everytime I said I moved from Boston they all always said ohhh i heard those winters are horrible, I’ve even heard of the parents son or daughter move to a warmer climate to have there parents move to there area a yr or 2 later, not trying to be rude just stating reality 🙂

          2. I think the cold weather people have been a dieing breed for 20yrs, most want warm and dry, I know there’s folks that love the 4 seasons but in today’s world most move from the cold winters to live in south and then end up staying there and becoming southerners or other areas, I know someone that just moved to Georgia 🙂

          3. There r 300,00 new Englanders that leave the area in Nov and return in April every year bc of the winter

            1. Yea, I don’t think many like cold anymore. I’m here because my career sector is here, that’s the only reason. Otherwise I’d be where it’s 80 degrees 8 months out of the year. There’ll always be die hard new Englander’s, but the population will continue to shrink, IMO.

              1. Haha it’s easy to blame it on jobs but it’s not, they give out 25,000 signing bonus’s for anybody that will move here esp in the computer workers, personally the suburbs r to quiet and everyone doesn’t want to drive or take a train 45 min to Boston when u can live in a warmer climate and live outside a big city with nice modern restaurants with nice buildings in the suburbs where people work, 2 of my friends that have families moved to the suburbs of Atlanta and they love it, they love having a six flags for the summer time plus love that a cold day in Atlanta is the 40’s, I love it here but there’s so much it lacks

                1. Six flags is only 10 miles outside Atlanta and the roads handle it fine bc they came prepared 🙂

  4. Wintery feel and smell to the air this morning. Heavy frost in Easton, had to scrape the windshield a bit. Can count on one hand how many times I’ve had to do that this year.

    1. AceMaster, as you can see I’m on my computer. But I noticed that the email associated with my name on the computer is different from the one on my other devices. I have a word press account and that is the icon I chose for it. I’m not sure why it only shows up on the other devices since I’m not signed into wordpress on any of them. I’m going to post this and then see if I change my email address associated with my computer if the icon will show up.

      1. ok let’s see if the icon shows up – I’m changing email address. TK I apologize if this goes into review since I’m playing with email addresses.

        1. ah ha – that’s it. Acemaster, the email address I just changed to is also the one associated with my WordPress account where I set the icon in my profile. This is a WordPress blog as you know so for some reason it just started picking up the icon.

          1. ahh, good to know Vicki, thanks! I’ve seen it next to ur name once or twice before and I always wondered. Its cool 8)

  5. Let’s hope the GFS is breaking down the current pattern too quickly in its long range outlook. It has 850 mb temps around +10C on Patriots Day, April 16th, which is also the Boston Marathon. It has a high to our south and southwest flow. 10C at 850mb is good for 70s usually with sunshine. Don’t think most runners want to run in that.

    While I think the pattern won’t break that quickly, today’s NAO forecast is consistent now for 2 days in a row of returning to neutral or slightly positive NAO over the next week or two, so maybe things are slated to start moving again a bit in the north Atlantic and there’s opportunity for warmth to return to New England.

    I just wonder how warm it could get if a ridge returns with west or southwesterly flow, sunny skies and the dry, dry ground.

    1. Hopefully the GFS will verify. If the same model pattern persists for a couple more days run, then it might have a chance. and you’re right, the NAO looks to go neutral to positive in the same time frame.

  6. You could get 90 degree heat in April if everything lines up perfectly. We saw a heat wave for parts of SNE in April 2002 which led to a hot summer.

  7. currently 40 degrees with a cool wind. It feels like the middle 30s out there. there are signs of spring the Large willow has leaves. and several new marsh maple has sprung. Some maple trees have leaves just coming out. The only thing the marsh does not have is normal amount of water in it. I split the marsh into 5 zones.
    Zone 1 higher ground this zone is where the paths are.
    zone 2 is the marshland right near zone 1 and usually has water at this time of year
    zone 3 are areas around the river
    zone 4 is the area of the river
    zone 5 is the otherside of the river

    1. we have two lauching points for kayaks One of them is visable from my house. This is in area 2. this year there is no water any where in zone 2. i need to go to the furthest point of the land where the other launching point is and even there there was only a few feet.. The marsh is about 3 miles

        1. you should go kayaking start out on slow rivers then go to moving rivers. The river that i live varies from being almost still to moderate speeds.

          1. son is going white water rafting this summer – I also want to go kayaking never – and rafting never too 🙂 Figures – I’d race down the highway at 100 mph challening anyone. I was a competitive swimmer and I have this ridiculous fear of having a boat turn over on me and hold me under. Makes no sense at all.

            1. I did class 5 on the Penobscot in Northern Maine. I would never do it again. Raft flipped right after the dam, went down the river backwards and when I tried to turn forward I crushed me knee on the rocks. Gave up on life twice, figured it was my time. Sides of the river were 30′ cliffs so no where to swim too. Then I saw a line thrown into the water after what seemed like an hour. I barely had the strength to keep my head above the water line. I gave it another shot and managed to pull my self up to the raft, then a little women, 80 pounds less than me pulled me into the raft on top of her. I was completely blue, blood everywhere and I felt like the luckiest man alive.

              I was fun while it lasted but not worth the experience I went through.

              1. ummmmmm Coastal – just sayin’ here – but might not be a good idea to tell the mother of a kid about to do that your story……………………. “8-O”

                4. You don’t really think I’m going to watch that – right? I only got part way through your explanation and knew I should not read more 🙂

              2. why in hell gods name earth did you do that. Highest i done was a 3.5 but i have gone ocean kayaking which is really fun when you are trying to get past the breakers 😀

    1. I’m not sure where Accuweather gets that from. We’ll see. BTW, since when do they give a 25 day forecast? It used to be 15. They do well if they get 4 days correct 🙂

      Anybody know what model Accuweather uses to populate those 25 day forecasts?

  10. Charlie you are right about needing rain. Currently were are having moderate drought conditions. This is not good going forward because to me once you get into the summer months it is rare to have an all day washout and so the rain we get during those months will come with showers and thunderstorms. I would rather just a good soaking rain than with thunderstorms that could turn nasty.

  11. Henry Margusity on his morning blog mentioned that the SOI values are going into the tank for the next 7-8+ months along with El Nino developing.

    What exactly will the SOI values do to our weather in the coming months into next winter? I do not understand what SOI is. ❓ ❓

    2. Southern oscillation refers to variations in the tempature of the surface, of the tropical eastern pacific ocean( warming and cooling known as elnino or lanina ) respectively. And also air in the surface preassure in the tropical western pacific.

      1. I’m guessing this is what TK was saying about the less than average Atlantic tropical cyclone activity prediction for this season. SOI’s in the neg. reflect more toward El nino conditons which typically result in lower tropical activity in the Atlantic

  12. What an absolutely spectacular day. Blue sky with just enough clouds to make it interesting, light breeze, warm sun, I do love spring 🙂

  13. Charlie, I’m starting to get the idea that ur not a fan of this area and the northeast US in general 😛 I respect ur opinion and totally understand when ur coming from and ur frustrations with how things are up here; weather, politics, roadways, crowding, etc. I guess i just cant imagine being anywhere else. I’ve visited other parts of the country including Texas (have family there) and other parts of the south and it’s just not my thing. The only place I could see myself leaving here for would be western Montana, but thats a story for a different day, lol. I love the variety of outdoor recreation this area offers for every season. You have the mountains and the ocean within miles of each other. I would also have a hard time finding better work elsewhere. I work in the biotech/research industry and feel priviledged to live in such a resource rich area with some of the best minds and facilities in science and tech. Not to mention being within a stone throw of some of the best hospitals in the world. Thats my opinion on that 🙂 Enjoy the day!

    1. Montana – you have my attention. It would be one area I’d think about spending a good deal of time.

      I was thinking about this area on my drive to and from daughter’s today to help out with the new baby. I came over a hill looking down on a small new england town complete with white church steeple and everything surrounding it budding with color. I know some want it to be different either climate or like another city or in any other way – but it is New England – so why be like anyplace else – it is unique on its own – right down to the weather.

    2. That’s why I’m here; I’m in the pharma industry. It’s this, north jersey or bay area (and I wouldn’t live there if it was the last place on earth). I just prefer southern living. The weathers better, cost of living is cheaper, more laid back, taxes are cheaper, and the politics more to my liking. I don’t hate it here, just not my cup of tea. Once you seen one leaf season and one little new England village, you seen them all. All my opinion of course 🙂

    3. I have gone up and down the east coast with family mainly and Florida with band members. I have gone to St Thomas and St johns but New England is unique and i would miss.

    4. I love new England I really do, I know when I get ranting it looks like I dislike it here but in the end I couldn’t live anywhere else either

  14. went out on the marsh today I had to walk for a good portion in order to get to standing water. So many of the migrating birds are back. Huge flocks of different birds. The 2 of the black bird flocks are back for nesting season. which is usually may. i saw 4 blue jays,2 female cardinals, a male cardinal. I also have seen a marsh hawk yesterday. the marshalnd is getting the animals back. I do not think i will be seeing turtles, snakes, frogs and toads until mid may.

  15. Vicki/Coastal, I have rafted the Penobscot River twice – I believe the video of that Class 5 section you sent is known as the “Cribworks”. It is intense. The raft guides we had stressed the importance of paddling forward as hard as you can – if you let up, your raft can flip or people can get ejected. Fortunately, we made it through unscathed both times, however the raft behind us had a 60 year old woman fall out and she went down the entire thing on her back/feet facing down the river, exactly what they tell you to do if you fall out. She kept disappearing under the water for extended periods of time but did great. She was obviously quite jarred when she got back in the raft, but she came through it fine.

    Vicki – to put your mind at ease, the vast majority get through the Class 5 stuff without falling out. Your son will fall in at some point because the raft guides love to purposely flip the raft in the calmer, more harmless sections 🙂 Coastal, sorry to hear about your experience…I can’t even imagine!

    1. Thanks Mark, that helped!!! I’ll have to ask him where he is going. He likes adventure but is smart about it. I admire him really – doesn’t make me less nervous 🙂

      1. He’s doing the Kennebec starting in Three Forks Maine – maybe that’s an easier / calmer river ??????

        1. Yes, it is a calmer river. Class 3 with pockets of class 4. You have nothing to worry about!

          1. Ahhhhh I’m smiling. Doesn’t surprise me since it’s first time for all that they are using their heads. Thanks 🙂

    2. Thinking about it again, I think I might do it one more time. Just to say I did it. I love the rush of certain activities. The zip lines and roller coaster are my favorite.

  16. The end of the EURO is now showing a major warm up after next week, which I can believe because the NAO is going positive, which means we will be losing the blocking. With that, the jet stream can push further north. Not sure how long of a warm up we will be seeing, but it is in the cards.

  18. Just started watching taped masters. Well well well. I do like that leaderboard. Amazing. When couples won masters in 1992 McIlvoy was 2 and the leaders range from 20, 30, 40, 50. Great game

  19. Tuesday and Wednesday may feture some pop up showers, but very little precipitation is expected. Fire risk will continue. This may become a real big issue the longer we go with no rain. We need a good old-fashioned rain storm. With the chance of a projected warming trend in the near future, no rain before than, will be hazardous.

    1. John I agree. If we go without April or early may typical rain it will be a very difficult summer water wise

  20. So some one is building a 3 story house next door. ok fine but in a neibor hood that has only 1 to 1 1/2 floors.
    Two they are building with 15 feet from road but then is also with in 20 ft of the conservation land and its conservation this was approve. but when they say do not elevate the land behind the house It means do not elevate the land not to mention they have a bul dozer pushing soil around back there and there is alot of it going . but thats not what got me really mad. it was when they decided to take out a whole bunch of brush while doing it. so i got a few pics and the person running the buldozer gave me the finger even though i was on my porch

    2. Matt. Good for you. We are in an area of same height houses. When we added on it would have been cheaper to go up but we went put because it would have not been fair to the neighbors. No one seems to care now. It will take people like you to push the envelope

    3. There adding houses down here too, we need more houses in the Boston area, it lacks behind big city’s, we have alot of 1 to 3 story home mix around here, I think it’s good for the area, hopefully they don’t knock ya fence down again, 🙂

  21. It’s April and it’s feeling like March. In March it felt like April and even May. I am hoping that soon we get a good rainstorm – we really need the rain. The showers forecasted for next week don’t look like they are going to help much. Oh, well.

    For those who celebrate Passover or Easter (or if there is any other holiday this weekend) – enjoy! 🙂 Have a great weekend!

    1. I’d like to join rainshine in wishing everyone a happy holiday and hope your holiday is full of smiles and love!

  22. As rainshine said, also wishing a happy Passover / Easter to those who celebrate either of these. I’m an Easter guy, and even though my youngest is now 12, we still have fun with it. Decorating eggs this evening with a small group of friends while the rest of the family is off having fun at Anime Boston. =)

    I will put in a quick forecast update in a short bit before I’m off on a day of adventure. Have a great one!

    1. My youngest is 25 and we still do the eggs but have now added help in the kitchen – from my kids and this morning my grandson has been helping cook.

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