Friday March 3 2023 Forecast (6:57AM)

275 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 3-7)

High pressure provides us with a bright start to our Friday, but clouds streaming into the region ahead of our next storm system will filter and eventually blot out the sun as we move through the day. As yet another low pressure area heads for the Great Lakes, the synoptic set-up is rather similar to the low pressure area that impacted our region on Tuesday, but this time with just a slightly colder atmosphere – though not much colder. Redevelopment of low pressure will take place just to our south and the center of this one will move out along or just off the New England South Coast late tonight into Saturday. The precipitation shield arriving later tonight will do so as mainly snow for the region but there will be a rain/snow line probably around Cape Cod at the onset, maybe with some sleet along it as well, and that line will move from its initial point somewhat to the north, more so along the coast than over the interior, but nevertheless will do so, limiting snowfall accumulation in such a way that the distribution will be an increased snowfall gradient as you move north northwestward across the region. Steadiest precipitation will occur through Saturday morning with a midday break, but as low pressure heads seaward it will drag slightly colder air back in and a bit of a temperature drop may occur with the rain/snow line potentially collapsing back southeastward, especially Saturday afternoon. However as this happens the precipitation should become more spotty in nature, leaving us with just showers of snow, mix, and rain northwest to southeast across the region. A few additional snow showers may linger Saturday night into early Sunday as an inverted trough behind the storm swings through the region from north to south. In the wake of the system we will have dry and chilly weather with a gusty north to northwest wind for the balance of Sunday and into Monday too. Another low pressure system will move east southeast into the Northeast via the Great Lakes on Monday night and Tuesday, bringing some rain and snow shower activity to our region, but I don’t believe this system will have much organization and impact as it will be in the process of being absorbed by a larger low pressure circulation located to the east of New England.

TODAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs 36-43. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow arriving west to east late evening except as mix/rain Cape Cod. Steady snow overnight, possibly heavy for a while, except rain Cape Cod and snow turning to rain South Coast and eventually MA South Shore. Lows 29-36. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH with gusts over 20 MPH inland, 15-30 MPH with gusts over 40 MPH coast, some over 50 MPH especially Cape Cod.

SATURDAY: Overcast through midday with snow southern NH and far northern MA, snow and sleet possibly mixed with rain Cape Ann MA down 128 to I-90 belt, and some mix but mostly rain to the south. Expected snow accumulation from little or nothing along the South Coast and Cape Cod to a coating to 2 inches just away from immediate South Coast to the MA South Shore, 2-4 inches Boston (maybe under 2 Logan Airport) to Cape Ann MA westward along the I-90 belt, 4-8 inches interior northeastern MA through central and north central MA northward through southern NH except possibly under 4 inches at the NH Seacoast. Mostly cloudy with lingering snow showers, except rain showers turning to snow showers to the south, during the afternoon. Highs 31-38. Wind E-NE 10-20 MPH inland and 20-30 MPH coast with higher gusts early, shifting to N 10-20 MPH and gusty midday-afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 25-32. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers early morning. Sun and passing clouds afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with period of snow except rain or snow in coastal areas. Highs 36-43. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 8-12)

Overall set-up features low pressure east of New England and high pressure from Canada to the Midwest until mid period with a generally dry and chilly northwesterly air flow. Low to the east departs opening the door for a possible storm system to impact our region on the March 11-12 weekend with a more widespread precipitation potential.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 13-17)

During the final full week of winter, expect near to below normal temperatures and the need to watch for one or two potential systems that can bring some frozen precipitation to the region. Obviously far too soon for any attempt at detailing these potential events.

275 thoughts on “Friday March 3 2023 Forecast (6:57AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK

    My early morning thoughts FWIW

    How do you get an effective secondary storm with such an intense Primary? Answer, not very easily and it takes TOO long to get going. That will be our downfall.

    NOT liking the trends. We’ll see IF there are any changes with
    the 12Z guidance. I got caught up yesterday and was in camp colder/snowier. Then, one by one, models started caving.

    BUT, the 6Z GFS stays the course, while others not as much.
    True the NAMS were colder, but still don’t deliver much.

    12Z HRRR will be the 1st 12Z run available in about an hour
    or so. We shall see.

    Right at the moment, I think TK’s numbers looks pretty fine.
    I Hope he has to tweak upwards, but NOT looking that way as of now.

    1. If my 2-4 for Boston (non Logan) is correct, that’s about as good as they can do in this set-up, which in itself is not bad, considering. The lack of antecedent cold and the limited ability to supply any cold during the event (until it’s departing when you get marginal wrap-around supply) prevents a classic snow dump. This is not that different than the 2 recent systems that entered the Great Lakes, stretched out, de-amplified, and redeveloped lazily.

      1. Even with the marginal cold, had it been a straight coastal with NE wind from the get go, we would have chance.

  2. Thanks TK.

    Guess I will just again 0-2 so far. Let’s see how it shakes but I don’t like the short range stuff right now. All depends on the front end dump. 🙂

  6. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2023030300&fh=11&r=us_ov&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023030300&fh=12&r=us_ov&dpdt=&mc=

    At 11z, the lowest pressure I could find was right at Memphis of 29.15 in = 987 mb

    Here are the 00z HRRR and 00z GFS

    So, at the exact time frame vs HRRR, “primary” is 2mb weaker

    The GFS panel to verify against is 12z, 1 hr from now, the 00z GFS projects the storm to have a pressure of 982mb.

    That would have to be a drop of 5 mb

    Also, the HRRR and GFS project the storm to be further west than its current location, which makes sense, cause if its further intense, than the upper feature must be stronger, which would tug it further west.

    In all this, I agree the GFS is too cold, I’m not trying to make an argument to rely on only it.

    But, I do think the “warmer” scenarios have too strong a primary and I think we are already seeing signs of it in comparing projected vs actual pressure and locations.

    1. The GFS is definitely too cold.
      But the warm bias is definitely there on some of the short-range guidance. As noted, starting out in between was the place to be.

      In forecasting there does not have to be camp A and camp B. Camp In-between is a perfectly hospitable place. 🙂

  8. Thanks TK.

    If we’re going to continue with these quick snow to mostly rain events for the rest of the season, we might as well see where Boston will rank for the least snowiest. Off the top of my pointy head, I believe we are currently at #4 (11.5”). 😉

  9. Walked the shore this AM and quite a difference to the feel of it all when the sun is behind the clouds versus when it is not.

  11. This is the first winter that I can recall with no snow events for the Mid-Atlantic. I believe Philly and DC have yet to see any snowfall whatsoever.

    NYC = 2.2” (pitiful even by their standards)

    SNE needs coastal development “off NC” for mostly snow events. LI isn’t going to do it.

    1. Right, too little too late. Had we had an arctic air mass in place
      for this to run into, then we’d have had a chance. 🙂

  14. Thank you, TK!

    And also thank you to JPD and Tom for your great posts

    Mark, If your tournament has been cancelled. I apologize for missing that post. If not, safe travels and the best of luck for a successful and fun tournament.

  19. 01Z pressure of primary ….. 29.08 in = 984.75 mb, call it 985 mb

    centered a bit NNE of Memphis

    1. 1z pressure from where? What model? Sure you don’t mean
      13Z? at 1Z system is centered over Northern Ohio????

  20. Thanks TK.

    Vicki – the tournament hasn’t been cancelled and we are shooting to leave here by 4 to get up to Lake George before the snow starts. There is room in the car if anyone wants to hop in and experience a pure, good old fashioned pure snowstorm this weekend! As uncertain as the outcome of this storm is here in SNE depending on your location, the models have been extremely consistent up there showing about a foot of snow.

    Best part is the schedule for tomorrow came out and my daughter doesnt have a game till late PM so my son and I are going to bring our skis and go to Gore Mtn in the morning to take advantage of the fresh powder.

    Going to try to remember to bring my yardstick with me and will keep you posted 🙂

    1. Wow. Sounds as if you are heading into a really special weekend. Enjoy and maybe if time send photos. Best of luck to your daughter and her team

  21. Not feeling it at all with this storm here in northern CT (and haven’t been). I think at best 1-2″ of snow to sleet and then some light rain/frz rain. Primary too strong. Secondary low redevelopment too late and too far north. It’s just as well as I wont be here to clear the driveway!

    1. INDEED! We needed a classic primary with development
      on NC/VA coast, worst Case Del Marva
      NOT in the cards this time around and we’ll have to deal with
      whatever we get. 🙂

  22. March 10-20 is a window to watch. Pacific becomes much less hostile than it has been and we should have some late season cold to work with. 6z GFS has three coastal storms rounding a trough in the East during that time period. They miss out to sea on that run verbatim but IMO the pattern is ripe for some traditional coastal storm threats in that time period.

  25. Temps still projected to be at 36 for this storm from Boston down through the south shore ,

  26. Thanks, TK.

    Again, just not Boston’s year. Of course, there could be surprises as we still have another 40 days of possible snow events. But the trend all winter has been, either for: 1. Poor positioning of lows; 2. Insufficient cold (especially when you need it most); and 3. Bad timing of cold (often gets here too late).

    I’m sticking to my 1 inch of glop forecast for Boston, though interior sections like Brighton, JP, West R, and Roslindale could get a bit more. It will, however, all be gone due to rain – like it was earlier this week – by noon on Saturday. So, to me a non-event.

    NNE will do well, which is good for ski country.

    1. Up in the Sierras they have what’s being called the 500 club: 500” of snow on the season. I don’t known how you possibly attempt to get accurate measurements with amounts like that, but that club is growing by the day 🙂

  30. It seems like we never get that much snow anymore during the “winter” months: November through January. Now we get snow from February straight through till early May. Like two years ago, when we had snow on Mother’s Day.

    1. Last year we had above normal snowfall in January.

      Although November and the first 3 weeks of December are autumn, not winter, and not contained in our snowiest time of year. February and the first half of March are.

    2. Not to mention that we no longer have white Christmases around here either. The Easter Bunny has seen more snow than Santa. 🙁

      1. Is This model generally OK, but just not picking up things
        properly is this particular set up?

        And of course, we know you think that the GFS is too cold
        and thus too snowy. I presume ditto with the HRW FV3?

  36. Thanks TK.

    Since I can’t resist, some over/under storm total targets to make of what you will:

    Boston Logan: 3.1”
    Worcester: 9.0”

    I’m still in the colder camp. I like the overnight timing, better dynamics than the last event, and have a feeling you’ll see a little weaker easterly winds and/or a subtle more northerly component to the winds as that secondary development occurs. Easy to stick your neck out when you don’t have any skin in the game though 😉

    And remember, a modestly colder outcome still isn’t going to lead to a big event for southern and coastal portions of SNE…

      1. Interesting… maybe my neck isn’t as far out as I thought 😉

        Just seems like interior areas (ORH) are gonna be fast and furious for a few hours tonight and pile up real quick thanks to the lack of sun and cool-ish ground conditions.

        Getting there for Logan will rely more on some of those other factors I mentioned, and maybe also on a little bit of wrap-around snow later tomorrow, though wouldn’t count on much with that.

  37. Its going to be close, that’s for sure….what if any role do we see dynamic cooling playing here? Seems like 850 and 700 Temps stay cold throughout….the timing of heaviest precip has to play a role ad well. On Tuesday in North Reading it snowed all day and didn’t amount anything until the Sun started going down around 500 and then it started to stick again.

  38. Sometimes the timing, as well as low positioning (and strength) of late winter or early spring storms are just right: Apr 1, 1997. Everything had to come together and it did. I believe Logan never got below 32F, but the power of the storm, a lot of convection, positioning of the low, AND perfectly timed dip in the Northern jet stream to allow sufficient cold air in.

    To me, this is what makes March 1956 so incredibly unusual. There were 3 successive major winter storms in late (!) in which everything had to come together just right.

    1. The April 1997 low was off the NJ coast, much further south than these which love LI for some reason. Tonight/Tomorrow’s will be no exception in position.

      JPD must have great memories of March 1956! He and many other school kids must have had a ton of snow days that month alone. No such thing as making them up in June either I bet, 😉

      1. Correct. DID NOT have to make them up in June.
        I just remember having to walk down town (about 3/4 to 1 mile) after the 3rd storm. I decided to take a short cut, where I ended up having to walk through some unplowed/unshoveled
        areas!! BIG MISTAKE!! Snow was up to my waist (I was a rather tall 9 year old lad). That was a struggle and a half!!!
        Needless to sat, I took a different route home. 🙂

      2. I was 7 and in second grade at Belmont Day School and have no recollection. I remember loving recess and running around in the snow but that could have been any time.

  40. The NAMs are the Death Star

    The GFS is Skywalker and Solo and co, offering a new (continued) hope.

    1. Death Star = SE Ridge

      That SE ridge still isn’t all that far away. I truly believe that it’s the root cause of these mixed events. The cutters are still there, only difference they now come with “secondaries” that are tucked in too close to the coast.

  41. Logan: 3.7″

    Worcester: 8.6″

    I think btwn 7 and 10am, Boston and JP (that general area) will have silver dollar snow flakes/ice pellets/etc falling then go back to snow.

    Marshfield: 3.2″
    Lowell: 6.3″

      2. Hadi, are we having our own private snow storm?????

        OR did you purchase a special Snowmaking machine that works in temps up to 36F?

  43. UKMET certainly has the secondary it a little better position!

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2023030312&fh=30&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    925, 850 and 700 MB temps are well below freezing throughout event!

    10:1 snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023030312&fh=66&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Given the above parameters, this 10:1 snow map makes NO SENSE At ALL

    Total qpf

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2023030312&fh=66&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    10:1 snow “should” be 10 times the QPF in inches. 🙂

  45. JPD – Regarding your story above, why didn’t you just turn around and go back to the shoveled/plowed “long way” to downtown? 😉

    Of course I think deep down you were loving that short cut. 🙂

  47. I am surprised there is this much disagreement in the globals and short range. I thought we would have consolidated the models that are outliners.

    It’s fascinating to see a correlation with our weather and Europe. Not sure how that works or if there is a correlation. We leave 3/11 for a week skiing in France and they have had basically no snow until this week, and next week looks active. So very happy they are getting some snow.

      1. Area called Arc De Panorama, 2nd largest in France. Boys are in ski school the whole week. My dad is along as well, I ski, not as fast as I used to 🙂

            1. That is just way cool. I’m so happy for you.

              Really enjoy yourself and take pics. We expect
              some awesome Alps shots!

    2. That’s the same week we will be in Big Sky Montana! Have a blast! You are going at the right time of the year that is for sure.

  49. It’s 45 down here In Hanover/ pembroke area & it feels so much warmer . I was out running errands no jacket & driving with the window down , March sun is warm today .

          1. Not necessarily.

            With the higher sun angle now in March, its better to factor in dew point and temps aloft in the column to determine snow chances.

            The temp at the sfc can be misleading.

          2. Somewhat, but you should follow the met discussions regarding what isn’t the same too. 🙂

  50. If one buys the 12z EURO as a nice middle ground …..

    hr 24 (8am tomorrow morning) ….

    it projects for Boston

    700 mb temp: -1C
    850 mb temp: -5C
    sfc temp: 35F at Logan, 34F in JP

    hr 30 (2pm tomorrow)

    700 mb temp: -3C
    850 mb temp: -6C
    sfc temp: 35F at Logan, 35F in JP

    Column is cooling after early morning, near the sfc, the temp is constant due to the radiation from the strong March sun.

    I think there’s going to be a ton of mixing and changing precip types tomorrow, though mostly frozen from, Boston to Marshfield.

    I think when its moderate or heavy, its all snow and when its light, its a mix of whatever.

    I think there will be enough moderate to heavy bursts during the daytime to add to non-paved surfaces, in addition to what accumulated up to sunrise in the Boston to Marshfield area.

    I really don’t expect plain rain, unless your south of Plymouth, maybe even the Cape Bridges.

    1. Tom I think you do a phenomenal job with meteorology. Although I still don’t think this is even going to be plowable down here what is your call for pembroke & Marshfield. I’m still going with mostly rain & it’s totally just going by the temperature projected, I’m a totally non weather expert lol but I’m just struggling with the warm water temp & air temperature.

      1. Thanks ! We can have a difference of opinion 🙂

        Your scenario is on the table, for sure and is a very plausible outcome.

      2. Oh …..

        I like 4, maybe 4.25 inches of cement slop in Pembroke and 3.5 in Marshfield.

        That’s a total for the whole event.

        Some received prior to dawn, then in spurts during the morning and early/mid afternoon, with a coating – 1 inch in the evening. Very little snoww accumulating on dark pavement after 9am tomorrow, just on the existing snow-cover from overnight. May accumulate a tiny bit on paved sfcs again after 5pm before ending in the evening.

  52. I will say the precip field is pretty large and looks bigger over a larger area than modeled.

  54. the 12z GFS, at hr 30 (18z tomorrow) has an 850mb temp of -6C over Marshfield.

    the 12z HRRR, at the same exact time and location, projects +4C !!

    (The Euro is at -4C.)

    1. Pretty big difference. I still think stays on the colder side. Will be fun to watch it all unfold.

  56. Hadi, bon voyage! J’aime beaucoup Bourg-Saint-Maurice. Mieux connu sous le nom de “Bourg.”

      1. Who in the world listens to what appears in the system
        tray of their computer?????????

        ha ha ha

  61. I hope all is well with Dr. Stupid. Here’s where he would jump in
    with maps from around the dial.

  63. 46F here in Coventry CT

    I’d keep my expectations low if you live in CT, RI or SE MA. I can easily see 8″+ in northern MA. Such a wildcard though along the Pike corridor over to metro Boston. Biggest bust potential in this area.

    Leaving in about 30 minutes for Upstate NY. I am bringing my yardstick 🙂

    1. Good Luck. I’d leave sooner rather than later
      First precip already showing on radar, including Boston, NYC and Albany.

  64. Thanks, TK…

    Any thoughts on power outages? Good chance?

    Good news is that we had our basement waterproofed this week.

    The bad news is the inverter to keep the sump pump running is broken until next week. If the power goes out, I will need to get the generator hooked up.

  65. Mark, good luck with your daughter’s tournament. May the roof of the dome hold. Lake George is such a nice region.

  67. I’m glad we’re getting close to the actual event.

    Let’s see what happens.

    Probably wake up tomorrow to a dusting of sleet with it 37F and raining. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. InMarshfield, could be. Even the coldest models bring rain
      almost up to Boston.

      We’ll know soon enough. 🙂

      Wouldn’t it be something IF the GFS totally verified. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      1. Long time ago we had a snow storm where all over
        SNE temps were at 35 for the duration. We got about 8 inches. It can happen. 🙂 I remember being out and about during that one.

          1. You’ll do well up your way Vicki . My folks in Poland Maine are expecting a real lot .

            1. I’m more over then up. Almost on RI and CT border. I’m thinking 4” but sure would like more.

    1. The GFS is just showing that it doesn’t have the cold bias so much in the shorter term. I had suspected that the GFS was “ok” on shorter term events since the upgrade, but going out more than a few days the performance really had suffered.

    2. Give it time and that’ll become just another #&%!#% CUTTER! (Oops, sorry I was suffering a case of JP Dave-itis.) 😉

      Actually all the global models have been “seeing” something out there. The varying solutions are no surprise but they can be interpreted as a “storm signal”.

  71. I wouldn’t get too hung up on that “36” SSK. A little bit of heavy precip and it comes right down, but the point is it’s not a “nothing” storm. Even areas that don’t get much in the way of snow are going to have a considerable amount of wind.

    I’m not sure if you saw my reply yesterday about the 36. The projected temperature at Logan is actually as low as 33 during the overnight / early morning hours before it heads back up to 35+ during the daylight hours. High temp should be about 38 around noon.

  72. Just checking in to see if 2-4 or perhaps a bit higher is still a valid expectation for Natick. Also what are wind expectations here. Seems like the worst wind stays at or near the coast. Thanks.

    1. I haven’t changed anything. As WxW mentions just below, sleet is likely going to be a snow-limiting factor. I was still waffling on that this morning but did allow for some.

  73. The one thing that may burn the higher snow totals is sleet. The primary low has definitely turned out on the strong side of expectations. That won’t have a huge effect on the secondary – like I said with the last storm, it’s less about the strength, more about the track and how fast the primary occludes and allows the secondary to take over. But it means a lot of warm air aloft being shoved north.

    Outside of the immediate coast, 36 isn’t a realistic expectation for temperature. It’s going to be a lot of 30-34 region-wide, plenty cold for accumulating snow at night with high precip rates like you’ll have. But the temps aloft are another story…

    1. Thank you WxWatcher. Hope your area is all right. It has been such a difficult winter for CA

      1. Thanks Vicki. Certainly fine personally, but a different story in the mountains. Under-reported (as usual, unfortunately) but there are literally thousands of people who have been stranded for close to a week and still haven’t been accessed. Roofs collapsing, several house fires, and supplies are now being airlifted/heli-dropped into some of these places. One of my coworkers lives in one of those smaller mountain towns and suffered a partial roof collapse (she is fine, thankfully)

        https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-03-01/california-mountains-snow-residents-stranded-winter-storms

        Thankfully the snow has stopped for now, at least in Southern California, and most likely won’t be coming back. Now we just hope for a gradual melt to avoid the floods…

  74. Quick brother update…

    Good news today – he’s regained the ability to eat soft foods. Speech, while still very limited, is vastly improved over the initial state. Thanks again all for good thoughts, positive energy, and prayers. 🙂

    8. That made my day TK. Great news. Rough day at work and nice way to end it hearing how he has improved. Continued thoughts and prayers for his ongoing recovery.

    1. The “cold” for this storm will be coming from above us, not so much from the north of us (some, but limited), until the very end.

  77. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUGWEo33fok

    Drummer John Cowsill is celebrating a birthday. This video is an excerpt of the song “The Rain, The Park, and Other Things” that they performed in rehearsal for a TV show (it leaves out a verse on purpose as it was basically a sound check). This is completely live and shows how great this family band was, from their mom through all the brothers and right down to little sister Susan, just 8 years old in this clip. 🙂

    As a drummer myself, I’m amazed at how talented a drummer John was at age 11 here.

      1. Well if it makes you feel better he is still very active in music as the drummer for the Beach Boys… 🙂

  78. Arrived in Lake George. 34F. No precip the entire way up here but it’s knocking on the door…

  79. On 00z HRRR, still seeing the column cooling, after hitting its mildest around 9-10am.

    Both 700 and 850 mb cool during the day.

    You can see the mildest coastal temps around 36/37F late morning, but 34/35F noontime on, which means the precip will be bringing some cool air down.

    If that precip is steady in eastern areas off the NE 850 mb flow, I think many will be pleasantly surprised at the steady snow that falls a good part of the afternoon.

    00z HRRR says southwest Maine, Merrimack valley and Worcester heavy mod-heavy snow in the morning.

  80. 4pm column has really cooled

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=700th&rh=2023030400&fh=20&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=850th&rh=2023030400&fh=20&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfct-imp&rh=2023030400&fh=20&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Projected boston sfc temp only 34F

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=refcmp&rh=2023030400&fh=20&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Still decent moisture off the ocean

      3. Bit of an attitude there?
        You should go back and read all of the blogs that I have written during this week. They’re full of meteorology. You might learn something about how this process works.

          1. Well, enjoy your popcorn, but also know that there was never a forecast here for “a big snowstorm”.

            We have folks here that love to follow the guidance to play the game. Some like the snow, some don’t. That doesn’t matter to me. At the end of the day, whether you “want it to snow” or “don’t want it to snow”, it’s going to do whatever it does, and the next day will dawn with whatever we were dealt.

            1. We can agree to disagree Tk it’s all good & you are the expert not I . I gave up popcorn years ago it gets stuck in my throat.

              1. What are we disagreeing on?

                I make a forecast based on meteorology.
                You don’t make a forecast – you just say what you want, or what Mike Wankum said. 🙂 And ironically I have pretty much been in agreement with Mike through most of this forecast process (a few differences here and there). So I’m puzzled as to what you are “against”. Have you read my actual blog posts? Not the comments – the actual blog post.

      4. Yeah I was the only one here who had moderate snowstorm numbers. We know you don’t want the snow and I get it.

        Flakes are here.

  86. In catching JR and Kevin L at 10 and checking Eric Fisher’s twitter, there has been some thunder snow in west central MA

    2. That is the activity that is going to help drag the temps down in a hurry – not TOO cold, but cold enough for several hours to give the forecast amounts a good shot to verify.

  88. Petey B has dragged his 2-4 inch snow area a little further south and east through the North Shore & into the western parts of the city of Boston (not Logan as I noted earlier today). His #’s are about the same as mine at this point.

  89. A little off-topic from this storm.

    Poor Vanatu looks like it got hit again. Judy was 3 days ago and Kevin went thru that vicinity this morning.

    925mb, 130 kts per tropical tidbits

        1. It’s been quiet around there recently, but that area can get pounded by a lot of TC’s. It was super active there in the 1990s.

  91. Poor GFS. It’s pretty sad that this model is going to be off on Boston’s snowfall forecast by about 5 inches, literally as the event is getting underway.

    They have work to do…

  93. 2″ now in Coventry and still in the form of snow. Confirmed by a Facetime call 🙂 Though by the looks of the radar the heavy precip coming in from the SW is likely going to come in in the form of sleet.

    Continuing to snow moderate to heavy here in Lake George. I’ll get a measurement next to the car in the parking lot in the morning!

  94. TK, glad your brother is getting better.

    So far, 1/2 inch of snow in Sudbury and sleeting now.

  95. TK – That’s good news about your brother. May his progress continue in the coming weeks.

    Streets are just wet and sidewalks slushy. Will start my commute to work within the next 2 hours. Quite windy as well.

  96. Oh well, I’ll stick to teaching 🙂 🙂 🙂

    Adding another tally to the wrong column. 🙂

  97. Currently a mix of ice pellets and rain with zero snow having accumulated.

    Well done SSK !

    Back to sleep.

    1. The snowfall forecast is for the entire event, including what falls later today when it goes back to snow. 🙂

  99. Nothing sticking here in any kind of way. Precip types are flipping around. I would say my AM shore walk is out of the question. My forecast for the morning is summed up in one word … Yuck!

  101. 4” of concrete here. Wicked low radio. Turned to sleet maybe 3am ish. Back to snow now.

    Gotta go pick my daughter up at the airport. It’ll be fun once I see her of course but in between, not so much

  102. 2 inches of heavy wet snow in North Reading… snowing when I woke up, not sure if it ever went to sleet or not

  104. 35 here with RAIN. Low was 33 at 2:21 this morning. So somewhere between 2:30 and 4:50 this morning it flipped to RAIN here. I was up at 4:50 and it was clearly rain. Could have been sleet somewhere during the transition.

    What a disappointment. I thought I would hang onto to snow
    until about 7 or 8 AM. No such luck. As I said previously, we “may” have picked up a paltry inch, IF even that. Ground is white.

    Nice job pattern change!

    What a SHITTY Winter!!!!

    Perhaps a brief flip back to snow later, but I am not even convinced of that. We shall see.

    Let’s load the next disappointment.

  105. One thing for sure, it is pretty WINDY here as well.
    And the wind is from the EAST, perhaps a tad North of East like 80 degrees or so.

    1. Late blooming coastal “appears” to be centered somewhere
      around Western LI, NY based on wind obs.

  106. Crushed here in Lake George and still snowing moderately. Car is buried in the hotel parking lot. I will measure soon when I get out there but it is easily over a foot of snow. My son and I are leaving to go skiing at Gore shortly.

  107. NOTE: The snowfall forecasts were not for what occurs ONLY in the first few hours of the event, but the entire event, which will be transitioning back to snow where a changeover occurred, later today. Keep that in mind.

    I’ve said previously that a forecast of 3 inches, for example, doesn’t mean you’ll have 3 inches covering everything. This is 3 inches falling during the course of the event, with some settling and melting ongoing during. Have to adjust for the conditions!

    This is NOT a very cold mid winter style event.

      1. Timing isn’t always what we think it might be. 🙂

        I can tell you I’m in the 2-4 inch predicted range here in Woburn already ( lower side of it – official measurement momentarily).

        1. Well, you can say what you like, but it won’t wipe away
          my disappointment. 🙂

          Up to 36 here.

  108. Made it in to work on the button at 7:00, even stopped at DD for my usual hot coffee. 🙂

    Rain, sleet/ice pellets pounded my face on the way. Sidewalks quite slushy, had to scrape my front steps of ice, then rock salt.

    How some people can drink iced coffee in the dead of winter is beyond me. One of my supervisors does. I’ll wait until May at the earliest, if it gets hot early. 🙂

    1. Iced coffee in winter is definitely a New England thing… (well maybe somewhere else too but I’ll be selfish haha) …I’ve done it. But I enjoy HOT over iced during the cold season.

      Once in a while on those milder days we had I’d grab an iced after work. 🙂

  109. As soon as the precip lightened up we went to rain…has bee raining for last hour..radar looks more impressive to the west and snow is starting to mix in intermittently again as I’m typing

  110. TK – Are we pretty much going to see just these “mixed” events for the rest of the winter into early spring.? Will we have to wait until next winter for any “all snow” events in SNE?

    Darn that SE ridge!! 🙁

    1. I can’t call the rest of the threats for the rest of the season this far in advance. One threat at a time really. 🙂

      Given our past history, you can’t write off anything in the first few days of March regarding the rest of the time we know we can get significant snowstorms around here.

  112. 2.1 inches here in Woburn (Woods Hill).
    Same in N Woburn at my brother’s house.

    Currently flip flopping between small raindrops and big snowflakes.

  113. We have a solid 2” here. I’m sure some melted. But logic tells me if we had say 3” (a guess for the sake of making sure my assumption is correct) and it melted to 2”, we still had 3 plus whatever comes later.

    1. Knowing your location, past and current conditions, and timing, you probably are safe to assume 3. These are hard to measure accurately when you have changing conditions like this. 🙂

  114. Back to all snow here again – pretty good burst too!

    Radar trend now tells me the rain/snow line trend is back to the southeast over the next few hours when the rest of the “accumulation” will take place, and then we taper to spotty precip (mainly snow showers) from there.

    1. An update to that…

      Snow is heavy enough that it’s covering back over the driveway I had cleared that was just wet.

  115. TK, to ur point above about the event not being over and snowfall forecast was for the entire event. That’s assuming there will be enough left after a changeover back to snow. South of the city, even where I am, that doesn’t appear will happen.

    1. There will definitely be less of a window down there, but that’s why I kept the accumulations much lower down that way. The wildcard was how much might fall as snow initially and then how much back-lash would be left. If you are shorted on both of those, you get almost nothing. If you maximize both of those – the potential is about 2 inches.

  116. SNOWING again here in JP. It is heavy at times. At other times not so much.

    About 5 or so hours worth of RAIN.

  117. Snowing heavily now in NR…just cleared a new spot to see what if any new accumulation we get

    1. There is a long way to go on that one, and you can be sure that the GFS is NOT to be trusted at this point. That P.O.S. model was still giving Boston 7 inches of snowfall today when the event was already underway. That’s sad (and really bad). They really need to fix what they broke on that thing.

  119. For old folks like me, if you recall a children’s program called New Zoo Revue, back in the early 1970s, with Doug & Emmy Jo and 3 “delightful animals” .. Freddy Frog, Charlie Owl, and Henrietta Hippo.. The daughter of Doug & Emmy Jo is running a live chat with her parents on Facebook (for those who have it) today at 12:30PM EST.

    The couple was married when they did the show and are still happily so today, and thrilled they have so many fans that still love to talk about the show they created. And their daughter is a wonderful host. 🙂

  120. 12z operational GFS run is hilarious. That model is so busted right now it’s both sad & funny at the same time.

  121. Can measure 2.5 inches of pure cement….now have about a 6 inch snow-cover in the yard…As much as I like snow it’s just not the same in March….no staying power, only a short while until Spring takes hold

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