Sunday March 5 2023 Forecast (7:54AM)

67 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 5-9)

A trough of low pressure swings through the region this morning with clouds and maybe a quick snow flurry here and there before we clear out. That trough will be ingested by a larger low pressure circulation to the east, and it is that low that will be the primary driver of our weather through the middle of the coming week with generally dry, breezy, chilly weather. The only “interruption” is a low pressure system that tries to run into things from the west on Tuesday, and makes it across our region with a band of snow or snow showers before being stopped and deflected southward, re-crossing our region as a decaying system as its absorbed by the larger low. A second shower or snow or possibly rain may occur in the area as this happens later Tuesday, leaving that as the only “unsettled” day of the next 5.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy this morning with a slight chance of a passing snow flurry, then a sun/cloud mix this afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind NW increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with a period of snow or snow showers in the morning. Mostly cloudy with a passing rain or snow shower again later in the day. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, becoming N in the afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 24-31. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 27-34. Wind NNW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 10-14)

Northwesterly air flow of mainly dry and chilly weather early in the period. Watching the March 11-13 period for potential storminess. Fair weather returns at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 15-18)

This period of time looks cooler to colder than normal and there can still be a threat or two of wintry weather from passing low pressure systems during this time frame.

67 thoughts on “Sunday March 5 2023 Forecast (7:54AM)”

  4. Hi everyone – Hope you are all doing well? TK my best hopes and outcomes to you and your family as your brother recovers and progresses forward.

    It has been an active and colder pattern to end February and begin March, albeit one that does not seem to be satisfying too many. Too cold and inclimate for the warm spring cravers and not enough snow for the winter demanders.

    I actually think the forecasts from most responsible sources have been pretty good, though I do think some have gotten maybe a little too bullish on trying to make busted winter forecast justify in the early days of meteorological spring or using a snowfall amount in some northwest location at 1200’ where seven people live, as proof the forecast verified, or splitting hairs over a coating versus 1” of snow. For me, its always been more about what are the real impacts of the weather on people, and in the areas where most of those people live and work.

    As these storms evolve, we all consider the usual questions – strength and placement of high pressure to our north, where is the primary low to our west tracking, where does the secondary low off the coast form and when where does the energy transfer take place, how much mid-level warming takes place and how far north does that warming get, impact of the SE flow, a change to a northerly flow and how much moisture remains when the winds do change around? Now though it is March, and post February 20th in SNE, and with generally more weight with each passing week, we need to include things like time of day, sun angle, ground temperatures, elevation, urban heating, etc. on our realized impacts. You want to complain about forecast busts? If more of the precip from the last two systems had accelerated or been delayed by six hours and fallen during daylight hours, some respected forecasts would have looked particularly bad.

    I have seen a little too much of the use of 10:1 snow maps used for predictions of impending historical spring snow amounts. Currently even the Kuchera is often a bad predictor. If you really need to use a snowfall map, the positive change and snow depth maps are going to serve you better. I know the problem is the ECMWF doesn’t offer these products on many of the available no cost platforms.

    This brings me to models. Yes, the GFS has been laughably bad, or really more accurately, sad and pathetic. I have enjoyed watching those who have slaughtered the GFS for years, warm to it as its portrayed outcomes they favor. Lost in the futileness of the GFS, is the ECMWF has not been particularly good either, especially in the early days of this pattern change. This is a common shortcoming of this model, where it struggles during transitions and in the early periods after a transition from a stable pattern. ECMWF issues I have observed that are locally impactful to forecasts in SNE. 1) It is just too cold. Frequently 2-3 degrees to cold with its high temps in SNE. That has huge impacts this time of year. Look at the forecasted highs from the 00z run on Friday for daytime Saturday. Boston Providence Worcester Hartford, almost all two degrees too cold. That bias holds on throughout its 24 hour temperature profile. 2) Way too much precip with systems it identifies in its 5-8 day range, generally because its transferring too much energy, too fast and then hanging on to too much precip volume and intensity after a wind direction change that falls into its already too cold forecasted temperatures. Precip has lingered but not in copious amounts the ECMWF has wanted to deliver. NAM has been pretty good. It tends to warm too fast and create too much precip up here, particularly if there is a lot of downstream convection causing too much latent heat transfer, but I have thought both the NAM / 3K NAM and the shortrange RGEM/CMC/RDPS or whatever they call it, have been good tools this winter. The HRRR has been way too cold and is basically on GFS ignore with me right now.

    I really do think the forecasts have been quite good and if you take what we know about snow in March and April in SNE, the outcomes have been very on point. More accumulating / impactful snow will take place when it falls at night, areas of elevation will have more accumulating snow on the ground than valley areas, suburban inland areas will have less snow than elevated suburban areas, but still more than coastal areas, and urban coastal areas such as Boston are likely to have real challenges in marginal temperature profiles from reaching maximum accumulating snowfall potential. Of course snow in March is generally less impactful because the roads and sidewalks melt and widen much quicker and easier than they do in December.

    Anyway, just thought I would share some of my observations and wish all of you an enjoyable Spring regardless of what kind weather we experience and how that weather aligns with your own personal weather outcome hopes and dreams. We will get the weather we get, just remember, just like rain and wind feels different in July, the snow and cold has a different feel and impact in March than December.

    4. Thank you for checking in! Always great to hear from you and as usual I pretty much agree with everything you say – across the board. 🙂

  5. Thanks TK.

    Today was our last “bright” Sunday morning for the next 6 weeks. We all know what begins next Sunday… 🙁

    Just when I was getting used to the sound of birds chirping on my way into work and streetlights shutting off again.

    1. I love these sunrise times.

      Really helps wake up at 6am.

      If I recall correctly, you get started earlier than that.

    2. The saving grace is that our latitude is gaining 3 mins of light per day right now, so, for sunrise, we’ll “erase” 15 mins in 10 days, a half hour in 3 weeks and have the hr back in about a month, assisted by solar noon backing up a bit through Spring.

    1. Yes, I know it is 8 days out and I know the pitfalls of the 10:1 snow. I am just posting what is spit out from the model. 🙂

      1. Regardless of what is actually on the ground, this system
        would have the potential to be the largest of the season. 🙂

        1. March 1984 started with a 3/13-3/14 foot and ended with an even more significant storm on the 29th. I do not know how the 83/84 winter was as a whole.

  10. Thank you, TK.

    On this day, 253 years ago, the Boston Massacre took place, fairly close to where I am right now. Crispus Attucks – a man of African and Native American descent – was the first person to be killed. It was evidently a cold and blustery beginning of March that year.

    1. Thank you, Joshua.

      Part of every Framingham school child ‘s memory of the Boston massacre was that Crispus Atticks was from Framingham.

      More important of course is that John Adams set the standard that remains with us today…..every person is entitled to counsel and a fair trial. He did not hesitate to defend Captain Preston and his soldiers.

  14. Thanks TK.

    We ended up getting 15″ in Lake George Friday night and yesterday. Snow was really coming down late Friday night into the overnight at 2″+ hour. A good old fashioned dumping like the ones I used to know. Here are a couple pictures I snapped from the parking lot yesterday AM:

    https://imgur.com/YskAb0i

    https://imgur.com/J5DcexO

    My son and I went to Gore yesterday and needless to say the skiing was phenomenal. They received about 15″ as well. Snow was a bit heavy near the bottom but lighter and fluffier up higher. Mountain was near 100% open and we did a lot of skiing in the trees…

    https://imgur.com/YfBglzY

    1. As for the tournament, it went on as planned though the games were all delayed and my daughter didnt end up playing her first game until after 4pm. They did OK yesterday finishing 1-1-1 but were eliminated this AM in pool play in a close game. Games are going to be tougher this year as they are now a younger team playing in a higher age bracket. Oh well, it least we get an early start home and it enables me to swing by and see my mother on the way back. 12″ at her house in Amsterdam NY as well.

      1. Glad all went well and that you had a great day of skiing. I’m sorry to hear your daughter and team were knocked out this morning 🙁

        Safe travels home.

  15. This photo from Mammoth Lakes CA is the most INSANE one I have seen yet. Unfortunately the snowpack is only going to get deeper before any real melting starts to occur. Feet more of snow incoming per the models. The Sierras are still going to be a glacier in August at this rate!

    Carter Murphy 8️⃣
    @cartermurphy218

    This is gonna be a year people talk about for a long time

    https://twitter.com/cartermurphy218/status/1632037748365496320?s=20

  16. A bit of sensationalism here from Bastardi as usual but it does look pretty darn cold (relative to normal) for much of the country as we head into mid March

    Joe Bastardi
    @BigJoeBastardi

    March 11-20 may be coldest for US since 1960 and top 3 in history. 1960 ( a feb stratwarm year) appears to be the
    benchmark. the core of 10 day coldest at -10C. Euro now showing that evolving week 2. Euro control has -14C core

    https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1631774553478160384?s=20

    1. If I’ve read Joe B correctly over the years, he doesn’t share the climate change belief. Anytime it’s colder than normal, he’ll be the first and loudest to post about it.

      I don’t care for him, but not because of his opinion on this. He could be 100% accurate. I just find him rude.

      1. Yes agree, there is definitely a political agenda behind many of his posts. Primarily passing this on because of the Euro ensemble maps he posted there. Cold pattern ahead though coldest since 1960 is probably a stretch.

        1. Joe B. is a very good met. but his bias he cannot hide. It’s more than obvious. I highly frown upon any political agenda driving science … ON ANY SIDE .. And believe me there is cherry picking going on on BOTH sides of the climate change “debate” when there should be no debate going on – just science. So any time I see something from Joe B. I try to find any science that might be in there and scrape off the bias. Sometimes I do find some good actual science if ignore the other stuff. I just wish he’d stick to that.

  17. The trough is indeed producing a few snow flurries in some locations – which is not a surprise. This is why they are mentioned in today’s forecast.

    1. GFS/Euro seem to have, as of now, about a 48 he difference of when they are identifying a bigger system.

  21. Distilled water vs tap freezing update

    This most likely only amuses me. I asked a while ago if distilled water freezes more slowly than tap. JPD found a link that said it did not. I found that link and others that said it did not. But since the distilled water bottle I put on the deck wasn’t freezing, I figured I’d put out a half filled bottle of distilled and an identical half filled bottle of tap

    We have not had prolonged cold temps for the tap to freeze solid. But it did have chunks of ice several times. The distilled water has yet to have even a thin layer of ice

    1. This stuff amusing me too. 🙂

      Question: Are the containers identical and do they receive exactly the same amount of solar radiation? (Even 5 minutes more in shadow for one over the other can make a difference.) 🙂

      1. Great questions. Identical both the containers and the amount. They sit next to each other but not touching on the deck. I did reverse them after a couple of days of ice in tap water and had the same results.

        1. Fascinating. Different densities will make a difference, so I’m guessing just impurities vs. no impurities. 🙂

    1. Thank you Longshot. Some interesting observations verifying numbers given here. And this is third time I’ve seen the SE Sutton identical to mine. Not sure if we have someone in this limited area who measures exactly as I do or if somehow my numbers are being picked up.

      Also significant winds on south shore and cape. We were gusty, but nothing like that

      1. The Box totals have sharpened up a bit from where they were a few years ago. Sometimes they are still suspect but certainly much better.

        1. True. I was interested in the COCORAHS’ accuracy. Compared with observations with several folks who measure accurately, it does very well. It does seem to mention depth vs what has fallen And that makes sense. Some lessons to be learned here

  23. Thanks TK, and thanks JMA also. Feels like we got 2 blogs today!

    I like the way you put it JMA. Not enough of a pattern change to make the winter people happy, but too much to keep the spring people happy. Can’t win 😛

    For the next couple weeks: watch the Pacific. After backing off on this idea last week, models are now shifting back to heavy (and potentially devastating) atmospheric river activity into the West Coast by late this week or next. When the models lost that idea, it freed up the potential of more cold/storminess in the East. Now, it’s possible the cold will be in question because of the Pacific influence… obviously, the more pressing issue is the potential impact of one or more significant warm rain events on the West if that pans out. But it will no doubt have downstream implications for the East.

    1. Oh boy. CA is seeing devastating difficulties already. Stay safe, WxWatcher, and thank you for keeping us updated.

  26. That NWS snowfall list is about as accurate as we can possibly get. Most all those observers are pretty reliable.

    The list does show the solid coating in parts of Plymouth County that I talked about, including Abington (where I showed the web cam). The Pembroke 0.7 is correct because my Plymouth friend is right on the Kingston line, which is just in from the coast and northwest a bit, not too far from the Pembroke ob location, and they had pretty much the same (“solid coating, under 1 inch”). Rockland’s 0.6 also supports it. The radar-derived data, while not great, would also support just under 1 inch in that area since we know it fell as snow for 2 to 3 hours at a low ratio (using the precipitation amount that fell during that time). This was about the southeastern limit of the snowfall accumulation during the first part of the event late Friday night / early Saturday morning.

    During the evening snow showers, there were some additional temporary coatings / coverings in that area as well as we lost the daylight and dropped the temp.

  27. No surprise that the craptacular GFS is going to have allllll kinds of trouble resolving the troughs and ridges and interactions around the storm threat window of March 11-13.

    I know people love to look run to run (I do too) but for practical purposes, don’t put much stock in anything you see from that model until we are about … umm … well, nevermind. It was still trying to give Boston 7 inches of snow after the last one already started. 🙁

    Just use the GFS FYE only until they fix whatever the heck they need to fix on that thing. I hope sooner rather than later!

    1. Speaking of FYE – the 18z GFS kind of hints that the March 11-13 threat and the Ides of March threat will both be similar to the last few storms that went into the Lakes and redeveloped to move out just south of New England. Maybe it has the right idea – but I still won’t trust it for a while. 😉

  28. Regarding the models going forward, Who knows, which reminds me of one of my 5 all time favorite songs: Jimi Hendrix, Buddy Miles, Billy Cox, and several Gypsies played this live at the Fillmore East in NYC (New Year’s Eve 1969 and New Year’s Day 1970). If I could only go back in time and be at this concert. It was also a cold December, by the way. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kYm3dSXKloA

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