Monday March 6 2023 Forecast (6:57AM)

79 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 6-10)

A quieter stretch by March standards and certainly compared to recently is underway and will last through the next 5 days. Ironically, a large storm system will be the primary driver of the quiet pattern, as a broad low pressure area takes hold over far eastern Canada and expands it circulation to include our region, especially from Tuesday through Thursday. First, a weak area of high pressure starts us with a clear sky today but clouds from an approaching disturbance from the west will move in during the afternoon. Previously I thought this disturbance may make a hard enough run at us to bring some scattered precipitation, but it appears the organizing low to the east will be strong enough soon enough to deflect it south through Tuesday, when some of its clouds will still be moving through, then absorb it. During midweek, a couple disturbances rotating around the large low will bring us periods of clouds and maybe a passing sprinkle of rain or flurry of snow, but nothing significant. You’ll mainly notice the gusty wind that the system will provide us, and the chilly March air that accompanies it. By Friday, the low will begin to move away to the east and another area of high pressure moves in with dry, calmer weather.

TODAY: Sunny morning. Variably cloudy afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 26-33. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NNW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A passing light rain or snow shower possible. Highs 38-45. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A passing light rain or snow shower possible. Highs 39-46. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 27-34.Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 11-15)

Active pattern returns. Watching a couple of potential storms with rain/mix/snow threats during this 5 day period heading into mid March. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 16-20)

Active pattern continues. An additional storm threat or two with rain/mix/snow chances during the final several days of winter. Temperatures below normal.

79 thoughts on “Monday March 6 2023 Forecast (6:57AM)”

  3. Thanks TK.

    My commute in to work was the “brightest” since last fall. Morning darkness returns next week for another 4-6 weeks. Sigh.

  5. The latest CPC temperature outlook is below normal from coast-to-coast through at least March 19th.

  7. Good morning and thank you TK.
    We’re advancing into March rather quickly. Now even below normal cold, is not all that cold We shall see about snow. I have a sneaky feeling we don’t see much. Threats to be sure, but like all Winter, they won’t deliver much. We shall see. Frankly I’m ready for real Spring.

    1. The only way SNE can get widespread snows the systems need to park themselves off NC, VA or Delmarva…NOT LI NY!!!

      The next weekend event will be doing the same.

    2. Couldn’t agree more. Feel like the deep freeze is over and this winter’s modest snowfall trend is not likely to stop over the next few weeks. Course I rely on you for analytics while I just want warm weather.

    3. Agree old salty , maybe some threats but I doubt any plowable events Boston / south . Even on a cold day during March it’s warm . For me it was an awesome winter but I know many here want the snow & I honestly wish you had some decent events but it was just a different stubborn setup this year .

  8. Thanks TK. I am in Fort Myers on business and am enjoying the nearly record high temps – but next weekend it will even finally down to only 80 degrees for a high.

  11. My husband saw a robin last week. He told it to head over to Malden, where it’s spring. 😉

  16. Headline in today’s Boston Herald: (Page 2)

    “Substantial precipitation” possible next weekend.

  17. Thank you, TK.

    The migrating robins have returned. But, keep in mind, many robins stay here all winter.

    Strangely, I haven’t heard any red-winged blackbirds. They’re usually back by now. Maybe they got stopped at the border.

    Someone mentioned the “deep freeze being over.” Well, yes, but frankly we never had anything remotely close to a sustained deep freeze this winter unless one counts the fleeting moments – 36 hour periods – of true cold. The rest of the winter has been an extraordinarily long succession since November of days in the 40s, like today (except it’s sunny today, and much of the winter has been gray).

    While Boston escaped the basement in terms of least snowy winter seasons, it’s awfully close to being a cellar dweller. Consider that a mere 3.5 inches or so separates the top 5 least snowy winters. And no, I do not think there will be much more snow in Boston, moving forward. Oh, we may squeeze out an inch or two. But even that may be a stretch.

    In perception – though not in actual measurements- this is the least snowy and least cold Boston winter I’ve ever experienced. I wore my winter coat twice all winter. I’ve put it away, needless to say. Almost all the time a light to medium sweater and fall/spring coat sufficed. I used my space heater once. And there were many fairly lengthy periods – sometimes as long as 12 to 18 hours – during which the heat in our building didn’t come on at all. While I hate to use the word “unprecedented,” I feel like it’s warranted here because I don’t recall this ever happening before, at least not in the building I’ve been living in for 20 years.

    Remember the ads on TV in late November/early December trying to drum up sales of snow plows – they do this every year, and I do understand why – in which a voice would say “forecasters say this could be a cold and very snowy winter.” “Don’s miss … sales event … Hurry and buy … ” I also recall seeing in September (!) a pick-up truck on a back street near me with a snow plow attached to it. In retrospect, almost laughable. Of course, hindsight is 20/20, and we don’t get that privilege when we predict.

    2. While I wrote that the deep freeze was over, I meant to say that the winter cold, agreed that there was little of it, was likely done for this year. I was following up on previous comment that even below normal cold now is not really cold.

    1. Euro is somewhat similar to the CMC and the UKMET. Slight differences in position and more differences in strength, but it does tell me SOMETHING is in the cards for that time period.
      Looking more and more like a FISH storm. Time will tell. 🙂

  25. Its 90F in Miami and 89F in Fort Lauderdale.

    And I’m up here where the dp is 12F, making 48F feel cold !!!!!!

    2. We stuck the Christmas there for a sense of scale.

      It was amazing how quickly these grew, taking up all the snow down to the grass.

  27. Loving today’s March chill & breeze. This is early March to me. And a nice halo spotted around the sun in my part of the world. 🙂

  28. Today’s 12z medium range global model runs are a great example of what I have been saying about the guidance struggling how to handle the systems – very very apparent. Every run different solutions. Don’t pay attention to day-to-day deterministic details other than for fun, because you can’t really make a “prediction” off of anything beyond about 4, maybe 5, days out.

    12z GFS: First system (weekend) is the big one. Second system (next week) is a miss.
    12z ECMWF: First system (weekend) is a miss. Second system (next week) is a hit, sit & spin.

  29. A lot of the systems being labeled as lakes cutters actually haven’t been. Many of these systems have passed south of us even after entering the lakes by de-amplifying and transferring energy to strung out secondary lows that pass mainly underneath our area. A few of them have just been plain cutters.

    1. Very true, BUT they still tracked to the Lakes first and the end results were generally NOT very good for SNE Snow Lovers. 🙂

      1. Correct. The persistent pattern this winter has been unfavorable for snow in southern New England (not so for NNE which will end up above normal).

        Once again, triple dip La Nina – the most persistent Southeast ridge I have witnessed and the most stable hemispheric pattern in a long time (even longer than early 2015 and late 1989 which each had very notable stable patterns).

        1. Unfortunately, those are the cards we were dealt this Winter and there wasn’t a whole lot we could do with them.
          Here’s hoping there is one anomalously a large snow event before the end of the season. I highly doubt it, BUT one never knows. At this point I’d take a routine 8 inch snow event. 🙂 I doubt we see that either. 🙂

          1. If there is one winter I’m glad I totally blew my long range forecast, this is it.

            I’ve had to do so much traveling locally every single day multiple times at all times of day and night especially during the last month that it’s been so much easier for me.

            1. As I’ve been saying, the secondaries have been developing too close (LI) to SNE allowing mild air straight in from the ocean (41F).

              Come to think of it, I can’t recall if there have been ANY lows further south of us (NC, VA, Delmarva) all winter. That has to be the first at least in my lifetime so far.

              1. The persistence of the SE ridge has meant very few low pressure areas that far south for quite some time.

            2. I can sure appreciate that. As much as I love snow, 2015 was hell traveling in and out of Boston

  30. JPD. My daughter wanted to teach today but wasn’t quite up to driving so I drove. I spent a fair amount of time in Millis when we had horses but had not been there for several years. It is a lovely town.

  31. There are many more advantages than disadvantages to this winter’s mild character. For example, if we think inflation is high now – which it still is – had we had a cold winter it would have been much worse. Energy costs of all kind would have gone up much more than they have, both in Europe (where the energy crisis is acute) and here in the U.S. And energy costs are a driver of other costs, including food.

    For work on homes – like TK’s windows project – this winter has been a blessing.

    For the homeless, it’s been much easier to handle.

    So, while I want a cold and snowy winter, I recognize that’s a selfish concern, not one shared by most, and certainly not one that will benefit most people in SNE.

    1. Sad outcome.

      Something about the plane having a trim issue.

      I looked it up and it’s gone over my head. Something about the plane’s center of gravity and stability.

      Weather wise, New England was just ahead of the incoming storm. I’d think it was in an area that should have been relatively stable. I wouldn’t have wanted to fly in the Ohio valley last Friday as that’s where I would have thought the most turbulent air would have been.

  33. Thanks TK.

    I am definitely intrigued by the weekend coastal storm threat. Still a decent amount of spread in the ensembles…

    Tomer Burg
    @burgwx
    6h

    Over the last 2 days, ensembles have trended noticeably south/east with the weekend storm after it transfers to a coastal low owing to the high latitude blocking downstream.

    But large uncertainty remains – while more members target NJ/SNE with snow, some are still well inland.

    https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1632836089814880256?s=20

    1. Welllll. We are having my sons birthday Saturday. And so far a birthday on March 13 has meant be ready to postpone. Several time for major snow or three years ago for the start of Covid …history says this TK May be right

    1. Omg. I called Mac’s cousin who lives in Brookline last night to see how her son and his family who live in Tahoe are. I missed her return call today. But she and her husband were in Tahoe also. They were to return yesterday but couldn’t get out. She thought they would make the plane today. But now I wonder.

  37. Tom, thanks for chiming in on the turbulence tragedy. I was thinking the same thing. Late Friday afternoon was not when I would have expected there to be a lot of turbulence in Southern NH. Such a strange and tragic event.

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