Wednesday March 8 2023 Forecast (7:02AM)

53 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 8-12)

An ocean storm continues to spin to our east, blocked by Greenland high pressure, and this will go on for another 2 days. Our weather as a result will be breezy and cool with dominant clouds but very limited precipitation chances. The coldest air was with us as this set up, giving the region some light snow showers yesterday, but a bit of temperature moderation around the low’s circulation means that any shower activity will trend toward rain today and Thursday, but either way it will be insignificant. The block breaks down by Friday and the low pressure area wanders away to the east, releasing its grip on us and allowing high pressure to move in with more tranquil weather and sunshine to end the work week. As things begin to move along again in the atmosphere, low pressure will make a run at the region via the Great Lakes, but with some effects lingering from the ocean storm and what’s left of the block, this system will be shunted to the south, just grazing the South Coast early in the weekend, and leaving us with a generally dry and cool weekend otherwise. Oh, and don’t forget! This is the weekend that’s shorter than the others by 1 hour as we “spring foward” at 2 a.m. Sunday in the return to Daylight Saving Time.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. A passing light rain or snow shower possible. Highs 38-45. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A passing light rain shower possible. Highs 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 27-34.Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Some light snow/mix/rain possible South Coast overnight. Lows 30-37. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Early morning light snow/mix/rain possible South Coast. Highs 40-47. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially South Coast.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 13-17)

Watching the potential for a moderate to major storm to impact the region with wind and precipitation early next week – details to be determined. Trending drier mid to late week. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 18-22)

Lower confidence in the weather pattern for this period, but 1 or 2 more storm systems may potentially impact the region as we transition from winter to spring (Equinox on March 20). Temperatures below to near normal.

53 thoughts on “Wednesday March 8 2023 Forecast (7:02AM)”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Your discussion, as it always is, is outstanding !

    You take what is a complex set-up and are able to explain it in a very concise, understandable way.

  3. The break-down of the block and essentially zero impact from the SE ridge will combine to make early next week’s threat the most legit significant storm threat of the entire season. Caveat: “Storm threat”. It’s a bit early to discuss precipitation types. But frozen precipitation as a potential is definitely ON the table, including for Boston.

    That is as detailed as I can get right now, and as detailed as any meteorologist can get right now.

    I can theorize that as of the 00z run for ECMWF and 06z run for the GFS that the former is probably too amplified and the latter is probably not amplified enough. But those will be trends to watch.

  4. If that early next week system can give Logan 44 inches of snow, I’ll hit my snowfall prediction. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. 🙂 🙂 🙂 Good one Tom.
      Perhaps Logan can pick up 15 inches and I’ll hit my prediction. 🙂

  5. Thanks TK
    I am hoping where I am Friday night into Saturday morning is the appetizer before the main course early next week.

    2. Spitting snow on and off here. The kind that you’d be jumping up and down for when you saw it in October/November.

  10. With the Euro in mind, if there’s a long duration onshore wind event along the coast sometime in the vicinity of March 14th …..

    The high tides to really watch will be in the 3-6 am time frame.

    The good news initially is the high tide heights in Boston are around 9.8 ft, so with real problems starting north of 13ft, there is some room to accept a surge.

    The afternoon tides are only 8.2-8.3 ft, so, I think those should have a lower concern.

  13. Thanks, TK

    I know that it absolutely means nothing, but the Red Sox are undefeated at 8-0 in Grapefruit League play. The Revs are off to their best start in team history at 2-0 and, of course, the B’s are playing at record-breaking pace! Although they have cooled off in recent weeks, the Celtics are still among the NBA’s top teams.

    And March Madness starts next week!!!

    Good stuff!

    1. I follow all teams but am deeply focused on the B’s who are absolutely all-in for The Cup. Interestingly they almost brought Lucic back in the recent round of trades. That would have given them an additional locker-room boost.

  15. If I’m interpreting correctly, the 12z UkMet and 12z Canadian look a lot closer to the 00z Euro than the 00z GFS for early next week.

    1. When I say that, the one thing I’m NOT looking at is snow.

      I just mean with respect to impact (hit) vs no impact (miss)

  17. Holy moly …..

    12z Euro with a 970 mb bomb over SE Mass.

    Relative saving grace is no strong high to the north, further increasing what would already be a strong gradient.

  18. Thanks TK! Well written and explained as always.

    Remains to be seen if eastern MA will be included in the snow, but certainly appears in a general sense that the Northeast has a potential blockbuster, multi-hazard storm on its hands for early next week…

    1. FWIW, my early leaning would be to look inland for the heaviest snow at least, but this has the makings of a classic “whole package” winter storm with various potential hazards.

      1. OF course in WILL RAIN anywhere near the coast.
        Why would it be any other way. Fortunately, there is still some time. 🙂 We shall see.

    2. It’s a week away which is along time in meteorology, let’s see how it plays out as time will tell .

      2. A huge and best part of this blog is model posts accompanied by educational insight. I sure hope that never ends.

        1. I have always thought the anticipation and info posted here is the best part of any weather event, despite how it plays out.

    1. Snow Depth / Snow Change ENS Means for the ~3/14 event in the JJ CT region –
      GFS 0.5″ CMC1.0″ ECMWF 3.0″ – The ECMWF ENS is 15″ apart from its OP. Ensembles don’t have ownership on being right, but my point here is the absolute futility of the 10:1 map in March.

      Also greetings from the UK. Where it snowed on the outskirts of London today. It is a miserable kind of raw here. The snow coated the grassy surfaces, but was effectively rain on paved surfaces. Sound familiar? Be well, my friends. Home again on Sunday night.

  23. FWIW, the 06z GFS, then 12z, followed by the 18z, I think, slowly increased the impact of Mon/Tues system. Not yet to what the Euro currently has, but headed that way.

  24. Kinda curious to watch the next 48-72 hrs on early next week.

    These systems with a strong upper level low, that catches a surface low and yanks it back almost perpendicular to the coast ….. I find they really can hammer the coast with wind. You get the wind from the low pressure’s gradient, but you also get the increase in wind because the low is moving directly towards you from E to W or SE to NW or NE to SW

    The last one of these we had was October 2021 and marshfield took a pounding. It was like a tropical storm, just not warm out.

  25. IF this storm happens and that is a BIG IF early next week it looks like that heavy wet snow for the interior that pastes to everything.

    1. That is the scary part about storms in mid March and beyond. Someone has said the sap is a bit late in running….and I may have heard that incorrectly…..which would be a good thing at this point

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