Friday March 10 2023 Forecast (7:11AM)

128 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 10-14)

Two storms are ours to deal with during this 5-day period – the first is no big deal, the second is a bigger deal. First, high pressure provides us with a nice day today. The wind will be much lighter than the last few days as the ocean storm has moved away. Sunshine which starts out bright will become filtered by a shield of high clouds in advance of the first low we have to contend with. This storm system, while destined to become quite strong, will do so after it’s deflected southeastward, just grazing our area with some generally light precipitation. A minor accumulation of snowfall is possible mainly south and west of Boston overnight and early Saturday before the precipitation area largely dries up and a new low takes over south of New England, and heads out to sea. So that system starts our weekend a bit grey and unsettled. After the precipitation shield skirts our southern and western regions we may see a batch of rain and snow showers rotate in north of low center off the ocean, but then we recover with nicer weather late Saturday through Sunday. The next storm approaches Monday and moves in Monday night and Tuesday. This one is going to have a much higher impact on our region. What’s pretty certain is we’ll deal with some strong winds and coastal issues (though astronomical tides are not that high which is a positive aspect). What’s uncertain is the precipitation types / distribution – still to be worked out. F’or now odds favor more rain south and east (especially coastal areas) and more snow north and west (interior especially). It’s also not necessarily likely to be just one or the other for any given location, as transitions between precipitation types are also quite possible. So there will be lots of fine-tuning to come over the next few days. Bottom line: Don’t jump to any solid conclusions – just watch the updates… Reminder, EST becomes EDT at 2 a.m. Sunday when we move the clocks forward 1 hour (unless they do so automatically of course)!

TODAY: Sunshine – brightest this morning, filtered by high clouds afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds thicken. Snow arrives eastern CT, RI, and central to southeastern MA late evening / overnight, maybe mixed with rain coastal areas. Minor snow accumulation possible in these areas. Lows 31-38. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Early morning light snow/mix/rain possible South Coast. Midday and afternoon rain and snow showers are possible in eastern areas which can leave a brief snow accumulation. Highs 40-47. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially South Coast.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Clouding over. Highs 38-45. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT & TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow/mix/rain likely, rain favoring coastal areas, snow favoring inland areas. Lows 30-37. Highs 38-45 but may stay colder inland. Wind NE-E 15-35 MPH, higher gusts possible.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 15-19)

Low pressure may linger in the area with additional precipitation into March 15. Watching another potential low pressure impact around March 18-19. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 20-24)

Pattern looks active to welcome spring (Vernal Equinox March 20) with another one or two storm systems to potentially deal with. Temperatures below to near normal.

128 thoughts on “Friday March 10 2023 Forecast (7:11AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Would be nice to see snow on the M-T system, but my gut says rain and quite a bit of it here. We shall see. it could still change, but I doubt it. Sure we may see some snow, but the bulk will be rain.

  4. With sports betting officially legalized in Massachusetts, let’s bet on the westward extension of the rain/snow line. I’m going with a diagonal from about Stonington, CT up through Framingham, MA, and into NE Mass.

    1. I had to check the map, Dave. That puts me in the snow area so I’ll jump on board your boat again if I may!!

  5. Thanks TK !

    We haven’t had a system, that I can recall, this cold season, with strong dynamics.

    This one should.

    Should be helpful somewhere.

  6. There is not a lot of cold air for the potential early week system to work but if it is a strong low pressure system it could manufacture it’s own cold air

    1. Matt Noyes mentioned that this morning regarding lack of cold air ahead of the system. Mostly rain here in Boston but you might do well Jimmy. I forgot about dynamic cooling, especially for your area which is very typical this time of year.

  7. Philip Ryan Hanrahan mentioned the same thing last night that Matt Notes said. Inland areas could get a significant snowfall. With the snow being wet throw in some wind power outages come into play.

  8. Thanks TK.

    If I could bet on the weather, NYC will get much more snow than Boston between tomorrow’s system and the early week system. Similarities to the March 11-14 Blizzard of 1888:

    BOS 12” (mix rain/snow)
    NYC 22” (snowstorm)

    I would also bet that NYC takes the lead early next week.

    BOS 11.9”
    NYC 2.2”

  9. NY might not get much of an accumulation tonight into tomorrow morning. I am going to say Boston will still be in the lead after early next week storm potential

    1. If Boston still maintains a lead, it’s going to be cut quite a bit. Just a gut feeling. Had Boston snowed as forecasted recently, their lead would have more breathing room. I believe Boston should have had an additional 2-3 inches to its current total.

  10. Without antecedent cold air, but with dynamics available, a traditional rain/snow line may not be in play here at all times.

    You can have scenarios where you have wet snow falling in a zone with heavier precip surrounded by areas that are getting rain or mixed under lighter precip.

    1. True, however, if it tracks where I think it will track,
      Eastern sections will NOT have that chance. 🙂

        1. Honestly, although I would NEVER complain IF it SNOWED, I am just as content this time of year
          for it to RAIN. 🙂
          I am truly ready for SPRING.

    1. If this system were running into arctic air, perhaps we could push
      that rain/snow line farther East, but Not a chance this time around. We need the system to track farther East!!

  13. Thanks, TK.

    For winter enthusiasts this season has been very disappointing. That’s an understatement. And, frankly, the teasers that have been occurring lately – possibilities of snow that fizzle or turn to cold rain – make the disappointment that much worse.

    In coastal SNE, for >3 months there’s been: 1. A storm track that generally doesn’t favor snow at all; 2. When storms track somewhat favorably, there’s a lack of antecedent cold, not much current cold, and no future cold to speak of; 3. Warmer than normal water temps.

    These three ingredients aren’t conducive to coastal snow.

    The biggest issue has been temperature profile, in my humble opinion. Even though March has been a bit below normal in terms of temps it’s certainly not been especially cold. We’ve all experienced much colder starts to March; 2019, for example, March 2017, March 2015, and so on and so forth.

  14. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KTVL&hours=72

    So, this is the 3 day ob for south Lake Tahoe, elevation in the low-mid 6,000 ft range.

    They have a crazy amount of snow on the ground.

    The ob is saying they have gotten 16.97 inches of rain the PAST 6 HOURS

    I don’t know if that is true. Then again, when an atmospheric river slams into the west side of a mountain range nearly perpendicularly, perhaps that’s what can be squeezed out. And thats falling on multiple feet of snow.

    Good luck to those folks out there, as those altitudes and in the valleys by the rivers.

    1. That “atmospheric river” used to be called “ The Pineapple Express”. I liked the latter much better. Oh well. 🙂

  16. Where is that -10F air when you need it? 😉

    Still hard to believe that arctic airmass left even quicker than it arrived, and hasn’t really been back since.

    It will be interesting if Boston maintains its seasonal snowfall (11.9”) to date while just a few miles inland gets clobbered. That would be a gut punch for sure.

    1. I’d Wager that boston does NOT add anything at all
      to it’s seasonal total, UNLESS there is a decent change
      to the scenarios outlined by the models. 🙂

  17. I could see that situation playing out where you get inland and especially up in elevation a significant snowfall is certainly possible.

  20. My son is just getting into making maple syrup. He said he got a decent run of sap last weekend. Sap running and heavy wet snow is a nasty combination.

  22. Quick peak at the 12z GFS for early next week the winners or losers depending on your perspective when it comes to snow is in CT northern Fairfield County Litchfield County and in MA the Berkshires.

  24. Good points to keep in mind from Eweather on twitter

    track over SNE favoring heavy snow in the hills
    track near E MA favoring more widespread heavy snow
    E track glancing blow or miss

  25. JpDave you are correct I am loving that. I think what the GFS is showing for my area would qualify as a HOLY CRAP BATMAN

  27. Northwest Hills Berkshires the 12z data seems to be targeting as the bullseye areas. 12z UKMET a little further northwest with the big snow totals compared to the 12z GFS

  28. Reminder: Caution on buying deterministic solutions on Friday for a system that begins in about 72 hours.

    Also a reminder that the antecedent atmosphere does NOT prevent snowfall from places you think can’t get it.

    You do realize that the temp was in the 60s before 2 of our greatest spring snowfalls, most notably 1997. Where did the cold air come from? Think about it for a moment… 😉

    I’m concerned about the potential for a period of heavy snowfall during nighttime hours INCLUDING Boston before the system is done with us. And it’s probably not when you’re thinking it would be.

    More later…

    1. Heavy snow at night, including BOSTON. OK, you have my attention. We’ll see how this plays out. Thank you.

  29. In addition power outages with this being a wet snow and coastal flooding should this storm materialize are other aspects to look at.

    1. The tides are near the astronomical lows. Despite this being a potent storm, coastal flooding will likely not be an issue, even at high tide.

  30. My take away from the 12z Info (to now), is that an intensifying closed 500mb low is going to capture a sfc low, strengthen it and cause it to do some kind of loop.

    The $64,000 question is where.

    As TK says refers to above, it if it happens in the right spot, the cooling column and dynamics will cause snow to fall during daytime brightness in locations that would probably surprise folks.

        1. well, Tuesday night would be as the system is pulling away. That could be the “chillier” side with a decent wrap around, maybe ???????????????

  31. Interested to see what the Euro projects for 500 mb path and its capturing of the sfc low and where/if it projects a sfc low loop …..

      2. Need absolutely perfect conditions to line up for day time snow , right old salty . It’s looking awfully warm going by weather bugs outlook with daytime temps into the 40s

        1. Coldest night at 33 if that’s realistic would be Wednesday night potentially the end of the storm .

          1. The guidance never forecasts the temperatures cold enough when you are going to set up a dynamic cooling episode.

            Never.

        2. Under the right conditions we can get the day time snow for sure. This set up sucks. It’s not so much the surface temp as it is the temp above. With the track, just too much warm air comes in above. I just don’t like anything about
          this system. TK says to watch out, so I’ll be watching.

          In it’s loops and all, IF there is heavy enough precip and the system has moved just off to the East, we could be off to the races. We shall see.

          1. I’m in agreement but it’s only Friday . As of now it’s looking like an interior special . My folks in Poland Maine have done quite well this winter .

    1. Wind will be an issue.

      As I’ve stated several times already we are far from locked in on precipitation types.

      Take it from a meteorologist…

      1. And a great one at that. Thank you, TK, for keeping it real.

        And others as well. There is some really great, knowledgeable discussion on here. To me that is the beauty of this blog

    1. If that 500 mb low is further south, Boston and even the South Shore will have a lot of snow removal to deal with.

      As it is, both areas stand the chance of several inches of snow after starting as liquid.

        1. Timing is not set in stone yet, but the most likely window of time would be from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

      2. Too many “ifs” not to mention, due east wind. The straight winds gusting off the warm ocean should negate any opportunity for nighttime dynamic cooling, assuming that’s what you’re counting on.

        And yet the tv mets keep insisting “exact track still TBD”.

        1. The wind will only be from the east during the first half of the storm, backing to north after that. East wind will become a non-issue and dynamic cooling can still overcome that. It can also overcome daylight if the precipitation is heavy enough.

          Example of daytime late-season rapid snow accumulation: March 29 1984. 6 to 12 inches of snow during the daylight hours.

        2. Because the exact track is still TBD. Why would we be able to pinpoint a low’s exact track on Friday that is going to be impacting us on Tuesday and Wednesday? For one thing, it’s going to be an anomalous track, with a stall / loop. And we already know the uncertainties of model guidance regarding such things. So they’re right in saying that. I’m saying the exact same thing. And the track of the 500mb is JUST as important if not moreso than the surface low.

  37. Trying to separate the hype from the facts regarding next week’s storm and curious how that affects wind speed. In just the last hour I have seen 60mph potential predicted in Norwood and up to 50 at the coast. I realize that the actual number may be track dependent but wondered what a reasonable estimate for metro west might be.

    I realize we are overdue for some stormy weather this winter, but like some others, I was hoping we could dodge the bullets and segue into spring.

    1. Question: Where are you getting the projections?

      Any hype with this one is coming from unqualified sources. Seeing no hype on local media (not sure about national / TWC but I hardly pay attention to them). And you know you’ll get no hype here.

      1. Both numbers were from ch.5. The 60 mph in Norwood was likely from one of the models while the 50 was from weather headlines for the storm.

  38. Finally got to see a broadcast from Melanie Black on Ch 7. She joined them as weekend OCM in November but I’d yet to see her. She’s filling in today. Excellent presentation – very clear – no hype – to the point – explanation given the limited time.

    1. I’ve seen her since she arrived at Ch. 7. Not long after her debut, she disappeared from being on air. Another met, AJ Waterman had seemed to take her place on weekends. Thanks for letting us know that she’s back on air.

  39. CPC outlooks for temps…

    6-10 day: Near normal.
    8-14 day: Below normal.
    Weeks 3 & 4 (thru April 7): Below normal.

  40. With all the focus on the event next week, as usual the shorter term gets forgotten about.

    While nobody was looking, there may be a sneaky ocean effect snow shower event on tap for tomorrow afternoon and evening for the North Shore, Boston, and the South Shore, with some accumulation. Will update if needed on the morning blog post.

  41. 18z GFS for around 5AM Tuesday:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023031018&fh=87&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Man this thing is tightly wound up!

    Verbatim this showing extremely heavy wind blown snow at this time from the Mass Pike and Metro Boston north into southern NH. All snow in CT and rain SE MA.

    By 11PM Tuesday with the storm weakening and sliding SE, everyone is into the snow….

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023031018&fh=105&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    1. EPS low center mean is about over Chatham. Clearly not as far west as the 12z op run but the ensemble mean did come west from 0z which was closer to Chatham.

  43. Ryan Hanrahan not bullish on heavy snows outside of the interior CT/MA higher elevations:

    Ryan Hanrahan
    @ryanhanrahan
    2h

    Trends today show the Monday/Tuesday storm hugging the coast. Without much cold around that would be a pretty rainy scenario for most of CT outside of the hills. Still time for the track to shift but while a major snowstorm is possible it’s not most likely right now.

    https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1634312747180605440?s=20

  44. This event next week & it is an event because even if Boston / south gets little snow the wind & the rain will be impactful.

    1. Not sure how your app. is calculating those temperatures? There are about 20 different model scenarios that could materialize for Tuesday that would result in a wide range of temperatures at any given location based on the storm track and time of day.

      1. It’s not my app it’s well known app weather bug and I believe Tk said last week it’s not a bad one

      2. It’s not my app it’s a well known app weather bug and I believe Tk said last week it’s not a bad one , google it yourself & check it out . It nailed last weekend’s temperature projections .

      3. I get daily pop up messages from Clime which is rated about the level of weather bug. I’d never sign up for it. My subscription to myradar pro seems to be the source. I’ve tried to find out how it calculates Information but didn’t put a lot of time into it since I pretty much ignore it. It gets some things right and some not as much

        Although the temps seems pretty accurate, I know from all I have learned from folks here that temps are only part of a very big picture.

    2. Weather bug doesn’t have the ability to perform critical thinking while applying science. A projection of daytime temperatures in the 40s. Doesn’t tell you much about the entire life cycle of the event for each specific region.

      Daytime temperatures were in the 40s for a good portion of March 31 1997.

  46. Hello Folks!

    As some of you may know I have moved to Dallas Texas and this is why I am not as active as I use to be. However, I do check this blog from time to time without posting for nostalgic reasons. I definitely do miss this weather blog, I am in another one but we just track severe storms instead of winter Storms. I am getting excited about this next storm even If I am not going to expereince it. Another difficult forecast for sure but TK did mention the possibility of surprises with this storm and I am Excited to see how it plays out.

    P.S Since I moved here, I will never look at thunderstorms in Massachusetts the same way ever as in Texas, And I already saw 3 tornadoes since I moved here and I am planing on chasing much more this spring!

    1. Good to hear from you!

      Thunderstorms are different animals down there!

      Please feel free to post often about the weather there. We’d love to hear about it!

    2. How special to hear from you and know you are well and happy.

      I think one reason I like weather in NE so much is that the extreme is on the rare side rather than the norm. Three tornadoes? Yikes.

      I second TK. It would be awesome to hear about whether in your area

  47. Getting more interesting with time …

    500 mb closed low, 528-531 dm just to our west strengthening to 519 dm and going a bit south and east of Nantucket. Wrap around is in play for sure. What might be in play from the main part of the system due to quick strengthening/dynamics ??

    2. Wankum thinking not a whole lot of cold air to work with . Has the same temps I’m looking at.

      1. He didn’t mention dynamic cooling. He should be thinking about that.

        Those surface temperatures are not what you want to be going by.

        I’m guessing you missed the comment that I posted earlier about not needing cold air around to work with. And I explained why. You’re not going to get that from a weather app.

        Also the WeatherBug app is not the be-all end-all in forecasting temperatures 4 and 5 days in advance.

        You are free to choose your preferred source of information. 😉

  48. As TK, Tom, and others have discussed, early next week’s storm will be by far the most dynamic that the Northeast has seen this year. If you’re asked to draw up a textbook Nor’easter, this’ll be it. Expect some pretty wild conditions over the region by late Monday night and Tuesday.

    It’s reasonably likely some places in the Northeast end up with 24″+ snowfall by Wednesday. More so a question of where. ~Probably~ Worcester or points west, but not a given, and just because you’re not the jackpot doesn’t mean you won’t see significant snow or other impacts. Only ~72 hours til first flakes and drops, should be lots of snow maps dropping tomorrow…

    1. And by Worcester and points west, that could extend well west; the best odds for those real jackpot amounts will probably be the usual suspect areas of the Berkshires and southern VT, but again, not a given…

  49. Snowing at a good clip now and the ground is covered with snow after starting off with rain. I look good where I am for a good dumping of snow early next week.

    1. At the moment in my area I am receiving a little bit of very light rain mixed with wet snowflakes.

  51. The first two global models from 00z are decidedly colder, especially the GDPS AKA Canadian. They are beginning to display the dynamic cooling process and increasing snowfall totals on their projections right to the coast and even south of Boston in the case of the Canadian.

    We are right on the border of being able to trust these models better as we are now looking at day four as the main event. Tomorrow will be a very important day to follow the trends on the various guidance and especially pay attention to the ensembles.

  53. Waking up to about 1.5 inches of snow. This might pale in comparison to what is coming early next week.

  54. ECMWF also a touch further southeast & colder with next week. Brings more snow to the coast.

      1. I don’t “avoid” models. There’s a difference between taking what they say as gospel and using them as guidance.

        As other mets have mentioned, the consistency across the global models has been there for a few to several days now that we’ll have a significant low pressure area to contend with.

        We’re now in the range where we pay close attention to a little more of the details, and then move into the shorter range guidance starting during tomorrow and especially Monday.

        Again, key word, guidance. Other key word, meteorology. Things pointed out by JMA, SAK, WxW should all be noted. Every situation is different. This one, for example, is not forecast like a mid winter cold pattern system where you have a big cold high to the north and a storm coming out of the gulf and up the coast. This is a different animal. And this is also DIFFERENT than the pattern we’ve had the majority of the winter. This is why myself and others are treating it this way.

        Yes, the GFS has been a piece of crap. I keep that in mind. But when the GFS has been closer to the other guidance and they have all been fairly consistent, it gets a bit more than a passing glance.

        The fact that 3 major models all shifted to a bit colder a scenario overnight is NOT to be ignored. If it was just one of them, I’d say “ok, we’ll just watch to see what the next run does”. And we’ll still do that, but the consistency is important.

    1. If the guidance continues to advertise this colder look – those will be issued right to the coast potentially.

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