Saturday March 11 2023 Forecast (8:02AM)

337 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 11-15)

A weekend split, though the unsettled day, today, is not all that bad. Low pressure made a run at the region, getting its clouds in and areas of snow and rain, but mainly on the lighter side, with some minor accumulation of snow mainly in the higher terrain well to the west and southwest of Boston. This area of precipitation will dry up as low pressure is deflected southeastward, eventually to become a potent storm over the water south and southeast of New England. While this process takes place, an increasing onshore wind will bring some rain and snow showers in from the ocean during the day and into this evening which can result in brief minor accumulation of snow (where they occur as snow). Exit this system tonight and enter an area of high pressure for a nice Sunday, but this interlude of nice weather will be rather short-lived too. Attention is on the evolution and development / movement of a significant storm system slated to impact our region later Monday to Wednesday. I’m not going to go into significant detail on today’s blog post about this storm. I will expand upon it significantly on tomorrow’s, however. For now, I’ll summarize my thoughts on the event this way. It’s going to be the most potent storm we directly deal with that will produce significant snow for at least part of the region this winter season (yes, it’s still winter, not spring). Low track (both surface and upper level) very important as always, but extremely so in determining precipitation profile. A slight but model-wide shift southeastward has taken place with global guidance overnight and the most recent runs (before the writing of this blog) show a solid process of dynamic cooling, ending up making more of the region see snow than rain. (Again, a guidance comment, not my actual locked-in final forecast just yet.) I bring this up because this is a process I’ve already mentioned would be a part of this storm, regardless of its track. Areas that see significant snow don’t have to be sitting in a cold airmass beforehand. Storms manufacture cold and bring it down from directly overhead in the right set-up, and this will be the right set-up for that. Snow load and wind issues will exist – details TBD. Resultant power outages will be a significant threat. Coastal issues will be limited due to astronomical low tides, fortunately, but with a potent low center likely to be passing just south and east of our region, the threat of high tide splash-over and flooding will still exist. Looking at a Monday night start time for initial precipitation favoring rain east, snow west, into Tuesday when sometime during that day, depending on the low’s track, we see the cooling take place and a rain/snow line head eastward, maybe irregularly depending on the rate of cooling via precipitation intensity (example, it could start snowing in Boston before some of its nearby western suburbs). The storm center may do a cyclonic loop / stall briefly, so the impacts likely linger into a portion of Wednesday as well. More refined detail and timing on these things with tomorrow’s post…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of mainly light rain/snow favoring south central through southeastern MA, eastern CT, and RI during the morning. Scattered rain and snow showers favoring NH Seacoast and eastern MA this afternoon. Very minor and temporary snow accumulations possible in some areas. Generally steady temperatures 35-42. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, especially coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Clouding over. Highs 38-45. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT & TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow/mix/rain likely, rain favoring coastal areas, snow favoring inland areas. Lows 30-37. Highs 38-45 but may stay colder inland and start to fall all areas during Tuesday. Wind NE-E 15-35 MPH, higher gusts likely.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast with snow likely, possibly heavy at times, except rain or snow South Coast and Cape Cod. Lows 28-35. Wind NE-N 15-35 MPH higher gusts likely.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with snow and rain showers likely. Highs 35-42. Wind N 15-30 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 16-20)

Quiet start and end to this period. Mid period unsettled weather potential. Temperatures variable, averaging near normal. Vernal Equinox – March 20.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 21-25)

Early days of spring look active with the good shot at a couple low pressure systems impacting the region with rain/mix/snow potentials and temperatures back to below normal.

337 thoughts on “Saturday March 11 2023 Forecast (8:02AM)”

    1. My brother’s. The one in the hospital has a dog and another brother and myself have been taking care of her since.

      1. Any luck on finding a temporary home or has she settled in with you? I can easily repost my request on FB??

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.
    So, it could get interesting after all.

    Waiting on the 12z guidance.

  5. Sounds almost like a weaker version of April 1 1997 storm. Cooling from the top down dynamic cooling.

    1. That storm is a glorified example, yes.

      We have had many instances of dynamic cooling. It actually happens several times in any given year, but not always changing rain to snow. Sometimes it just makes a rain event a little colder rain event. Sometimes it turns wet snow into fluffier snow. Just depends on the set-up.

  6. Is next week’s storm being called the “Pi Day Nor’easter” yet?

    If our terrible Unitil service goes out and interferes with my wife’s cherry pie plans, I will not be happy. >:(

  11. And suddenly a burst of moderate snow here with pretty low visibility and a gusty ENE wind!

  12. Watching the cloud that produced that burst of snow here – lower level – moving ENE to WSW – definitely the ocean-effect stuff is in play a bit earlier than I had previously expected. 🙂

    I wish I had that on time lapse video. It was neat!

  13. For model watchers…

    NAM is not going to handle the low’s evolution well right now. Outside its optimal range. Will likely be too tucked in west and north and too much dry slot. In other words I don’t think the 12z will look much different than the 06z. But I suspect 1 or 2 runs from now a trend will emerge that will take us toward a more correct solution.

  14. TK – Did the April 6-7, 1982 blizzard have the typical wintertime type cold high to our north unlike most springtime snow events that rely on dynamic cooling much like our upcoming one will next week? If I recall correctly, it was forecasted well in advance for that time period and it was mighty cold on April 5th to say the least, very windy as well.

    I watched Barry’s 3/31/1997 noontime forecast via YouTube and his surface maps showed the nearest high still well off to our northwest. Amazing how 25.4” of snow can still accumulate without one! 🙂

    1. You don’t need a cold high to the north for it. There are a number of ways it can happen.

      In this case we had an anomalous cold air mass delivered behind a powerful cyclone in eastern Canada with the help of a high in central Canada.

      The jet stream was displaced pretty far south and the disturbance that produced the April 6 snowstorm took the track it needed to maximize the combo of cold and snow right on us. And yes, that happened during the day. The temperatures were in the upper 10s to middle 20s and the snow was powdery and drifty.

      I hope you can see this. It’s a set of weather maps for that entire week (April 5-11). April 11 was Easter Sunday and I remember having no snow left on the ground by that day after having received 16 inches with 2 to 3 foot snowdrifts just 5 days prior. Also of note, April 7 was a very cold and very windy day with an altostratus overcast that made it look like we were in the tundra in the dead of winter.

      https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1982/19820405-19820411.pdf

      NOTE: These maps are once per day, 7 a.m. eastern time. So you have to kind of do a little imaginary fill in the gap if you will to visualize the progression from one day to the next. Most of us have seen enough maps to be able to do that. 🙂

  15. Speaking of apps, I have this one on my laptop and phone. I like the map graphics.

    https://www.windy.com/?4 2.468,-70.947,5

    What I also like is that on the right side I can click on clouds, rain, new snow, snow depth, winds, temps, wave heights, etc and it will display map graphics instantly. It uses 5 existing models and you can click on any one of them. If you are interested in wind as an example, you can click on wind and then run through the 5 models and see what each one says.

    You can add layers. For example you can click on wind and then add paragliding and run through the models. It has webcams too. It couldn’t be any easier to use and it has entertainment value … probably why I use it.

  18. I’ll be looking forward to more information later to see if the cold trend continues but I’m not jumping on anything yet . Off to the the hospital to finally bring my wife ( hopefully home ) who fell critically I’ll last Sunday morning & had to be rushed to the hospital, all is getting better slowly .

    2. I’m glad to hear she’s gotten better, hopefully enough so, to come home. Hopefully, she feels better still in the days ahead.

  20. TK, in a system like the upcoming one, about how far north of the 700 mb low do you want to be, where some of the heaviest snow can fall ? Thanks !

      1. 🙂 Wouldn’t mind seeing some more today! 🙂
        Any chance at all that the Monday-Wednesday event
        can be the big kahuna? A real Holy Crap Batman?
        I doubt it, BUT is there a chance?

    2. I haven’t seen anything yet so far. I imagine we’ll see lots of “activity” falling from the sky come Tuesday, in one form or another. Or perhaps “many” forms?

      1. I can envision Boston’s precipitation timeline looking similar to the March 31 – April 1 1997 storm, lots of rain, then a period of heavy snow. Probably not 2 feet, but you know, the idea. Rain to snow basically. Don’t suspect sleet will be a player on this one and certainly not freezing rain.

  24. So sorry about your wife SSK. If you posted about it earlier, I didn’t notice. Hope she recovers soon.

  25. windy.com is a good site/app. I use it alot to identify what monitoring sites we should go do during field work as you can get predictions and current conditions for specific Locations/GPS points.

    Looking like a decent shot at a potent Nor-easter impacting SNE. Probably some of the best dynamics of the season.

    1. Easily the best IMO.

      I think I’ve already had to remind about a half dozen folks across the net since yesterday that “northeaster” does not automatically translate to “snowstorm”. Petey B. did the same on the air and Twitter. That said, somebody is going to see a whole lot of snow in just a few short days…

  26. While I’m not convinced the immediate coast – where I live – will have much, if any, accumulating snow, I am confident interior sections (as close as 10 miles inland) will have measurable, and in many locales, plowable snow. Given the long-range forecast which calls for (well) below normal temperatures through at least early April, will there be piles left over from this month’s snow on Patriots’ Day (Marathon Monday) in Hopkinton? WHW folks, what do you think?

    1. Those will be long gone before mid April.

      Don’t count out substantial snow right to the coast. The dynamics may very well support that, even south of Boston.

      1. Now you’re talking TK.

        But it is likely to be “CEMENT”, no? Which would cut down on accumulation, but add greatly to power outage threat!

        1. I would suspect a snowfall consistency much more like 1997’s April 1 storm rather than 1982’s April 6 storm. So yes, heavier and wetter. You’re not going to pile it up like fluff, but you would definitely increase the power outage potential. Again, it remains to be seen if Boston itself will end up with enough accumulation to even have that as a problem, but it wouldn’t surprise me a single bit if they do.

          I’d refer to this type of snow (if it takes places as I suspect it may) more like “mashed potatoes” vs. “cement”. I tend to use the cement term more for a wet snow that has then frozen solid from a bigger temperature drop. We won’t have that behind this system. It’s right back to the 40s by Thursday, and if the next event tracks further north, we may be 50+ for St. Pat’s Day.

          1. Most of Boston’s neighborhoods don’t have the extent of overhead wiring like it used to back in the day. When I was a kid, practically every street had wires except for the main streets. Of course, the suburbs are a different story. 🙂

  28. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850th&rh=2023031100&fh=99&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=700th&rh=2023031100&fh=99&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    In the system a week ago, I remember the 700 mb temps hanging a bit below 0c and the 850 mb temps running a few degrees below 0c.

    Here is one projection of the temps for 700 mb and 850 mb.

    Much colder column, even if the boundary layer is March similar. Different setup above.

    1. Always have to be careful outside of the prime season. We’re kind of right on the other side of that border now as this will be occurring right at mid March.

      1. Ok thank you !

        I’ve gotten caught up in the snow part of the storm. 🙂

        For marshfield, I should go back to focusing on what 12+ hours of very windy conditions are going to do.

  29. TK – Can dynamic cooling occur at the very beginning of winter as well, or is it mostly a late winter/spring occurrence?

    I never heard of the term until this blog. I find it interesting that the tv mets rarely if ever speak of it on air during their broadcasts when it applies. Do they worry that the viewing audience would only get confused?

    1. It can occur any time of the year, technically. But it’s most common during the “colder” half of the year, at least in its most noticeable forms.

      The term has been used by TV forecasters at times through the years. Some of the “old school” mets that old folks like myself grew up watching referred to the process – some of them did not use the exact term “dynamic cooling” probably as a way to keep the wording simple for the average viewer, but they often talked about cold air “being dragged down from above”. I know Dick Albert used to mention it that way all the time.

  30. Thanks guys – I don’t like to go too personal here but it’s been a rough week , my wife already immune compromised ( am I saying that right ) her body tried to fight off an infection Saturday & it could not causing her to go septis & from there septic shock ( for quite some time ) she was rushed out by ambulance Sunday unresponsive & it was a very , very close call as her vitals were not good along with 103 fever & critically low potassium. She has improved & I’m bringing her home today I’m pretty sure . I’ll probably remain out of work a few more days so she can recover more . Thank you all .

    6. SSK, I can’t even imagine what you have all been through with this and happy to hear things are getting better now. It must have been very scary for you and your son when everything was happening earlier this week.

  31. fwiw,

    The 12Z RDPS brings the snow just about to Boston around
    15Z on Tuesday

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023031112&fh=75&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    waivering around 18z

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023031112&fh=75&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    finally through at 21Z

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023031112&fh=81&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Total Kuchera as of Tuesday at 8PM
    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023031112&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  32. Wave after wave of snow showers now from the ocean. This reminds me of that situation we had last week.

    1. You predicted this. On the money, as usual, TK!

      I sound like a broken record when I say this but it needs to be reiterated: Your ability to forecast AND explain weather phenomena in ways that lay people like myself and professionals alike can understand is second to none.

      1. Thank you 🙂

        But to be fair, I only added the ocean effect stuff to my thought process about 30 hours ago. At the same time I only brought the synoptic snow into the far southwestern and southern portions of the WHW forecast area. The latter was off by about 50-100 miles, even though it was still “insignificant”. The ocean-effect stuff took shape a little sooner than I thought it would – but here it is nonetheless.

  33. SSK, that’s very unsettling news regarding your wife. My thoughts are with you, your wife, and family. Take good care.

  34. Thank you TK.

    Woke up to light snow and about a half inch on the ground. Was closer to an inch in the higher elevations of town and nothing at all in lower elevations.

    Tuesday is looking like a crush job for areas NW of the low center. At this point the majority of SNE outside of the Cape looks to be in the game for some heavy snow by the time this is all said and done. Been a long time since we have had a storm with these dynamics!

  35. Tom what’s your thinking down this way as I have not seen anything , we looking to possibly get some snow & which one in your opinion could win out snow vs rain . I believe the tides will not be an issue but if indeed we get snow ( if ) I’m suspecting that’s a wet pasty snow & with the projected winds that may pose some issues

  38. Just curious SSK. Has your wife been tested for Covid as well, just in case? I wonder if from now on, testing for that will be the standard, regardless of the type of illness?

        1. I’ve had 4 shots myself, most recently last October. Thanks SSK. We’ll be thinking good thoughts about your wife. 🙂

    1. How about a Zoom at 12Z. WOW!

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023031112&fh=72&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=prateptype_cat-imp&m=gfs

      And 15Z DOUBLE WOW!

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023031112&fh=75&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      This is a full out DUMP of SNOW!

      18Z and it continues, just West of Boston OMG!

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023031112&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      By 0Z Boston is flirting with RAIN

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023031112&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  44. Not too mention underwater at the immediate coast.

    Low intensifying and being brought back into the coastline and slowly.

    1. There ya go. NOT impressive snow depths.
      We have heavy very wet snow and during the day we have the high sun angle with marginal temperatures. Not a formula
      for accumulation.

      HOWEVER, I make a prediction.
      “assuming” the GFS comes close to verifying, I think
      the snow depth change maps are way underdone.
      I really do.

      Mark & Tom, your thoughts?

      1. Kuchera likely over done as well.

        I like TK’s Somewhere in between Snow Depth change and Kuchera. That sounds most reasonable to me. 🙂

      3. Totally agree….snow depth change WAY too low in this situation.

        That run is a foot plus of paste for most of the region.

  47. Don’t forget to give some weight to the depth change maps over the Kuchera. … maybe somewhere in between.

  48. GFS 10:1 Snowmap is 18-28″

    GFS Kuchera Snowmap is 12-18″

    Ain’t no way in HELL you are going to tell me that Snow Depth change map is accurate with those snowfall rates!

    1. I Agree 100%. We may not reach Kuchera levels, but it
      would certainly be more than those snow depth maps.

  49. Question: These maps that you guys are posting now that are showing lots of “pink” color over much of eastern sections, is that “mixed” or the heaviest snowfall rates?

    2. I have also noticed that the precipitation isn’t extending as much into NNE as earlier maps or is that my imagination?

  50. I know everything is very much in play but wanted to get a feel for snow totals likely in Natick. Talk of the April fools storm brings back memories of tree branches everywhere and would love to avoid something of that magnitude. Seems like most models still have double digit totals more toward central and western Mass. is this accurate?

    Sorry to hear about your wife SSK. Hope she has a speedy recovery!

    1. Snow totals will appear on my blog in first guess form possibly tomorrow morning’s update, definitely by late-day in the comments.

      Be prepared for “more than just a little bit” and we’ll go from there.

      1. Meaning the prediction is not overly impressive
        or if those are the amounts, it’s not overly impressive?
        🙂

  52. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2023031112&fh=75&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2023031112&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2023031112&fh=81&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2023031112&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2023031112&fh=87&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    That’s a FUN 15 hours of projected wind for the south shore. I don’t care if the high tide was 2 ft ……..

    2. WOW. Thanks Tom. I have been wondering if astronomically low tides would keep your area safe from ocean splash over. It seems Humarock etc get whacked even with smallish systems.

  53. GDPS coming out now.
    Likely to be very similar to the RDPS out to 84 hours and then we’ll see. 🙂

      1. Well the GDPS is different than the RDPS.
        The RDPS didn’t hug coast as much and consequently switched to snow at the coast sooner.

  56. With regard to the ocean effect snow, it’s extremely light snow falling. You have to be really stare out a window to see it and barely moistening the sidewalks.

    I’m at work not far from the Longwood Medical area off Huntington Ave. Is the snow more pronounced at the waterfront/downtown areas? I suspect JPD will see only a precious few flakes,

    2. Depends on where you are. I’ve had 4 separate bouts of moderate snow now from the ocean-effect stuff.

  58. While it is now snowing steadily here, it’s so light that you have to actually be outside to really notice or concentrate staring out a window, you can’t just casually look and expect to see full flakes.

  61. Another burst of good snow here with BIG flakes this time. Now back to very light with just a few little bitty flakes.

    By the way my early call for next week for snowfall in Boston is somewhere between a trace and a billion feet. I’ll narrow it down later…………………………………….

    1. I think you are on to something for next week. SIL is watching and will bring his and our snowblower home from his shop on Monday if needed

  64. Well, the 12Z UKMET certainly looks interesting!

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2023031112&fh=90&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Unfortunately, all we have is the 10:1 snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023031112&fh=120&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    total qpf GOOD GRIEF!!!!

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2023031112&fh=120&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Brief period where 850 temps go above freezing in coastal areas, BUT a MUCH longer period where 925 temps
    are well above freezing representing a boundary layer
    issue and mostly RAIN along the coast until later.

    1. IMAGINE IF we had ALL of that qpf as SNOW!!!!

      I am getting to the point wondering IF there could be a
      MAJOR SURPRISE here and we end up with a repeat
      of 3/31-4/1 1997!!!

      Wouldn’t that be something.

      Now the Euro will probably track up the HUDSON!

      1. Not enough moisture and a little less time. No 1997 this time.

        Imagine if all of 1997’s QPF was snow. A lot of RAIN fell first!

  65. Now I think I understand this particular ocean effect snow as it comes in “waves”. It’s tapered down considerably at the moment.

    Will there be any more rounds?

    1. We can see it until about early evening, until the circulation from the deepening offshore storm loosens its grip as the low moves out to sea.

  66. It appears that Monday will be a typical “weather breather”. Perhaps our first (and maybe only) “bread & milk” run of the season? Lol. 😀

    Even for Boston?

    I find it quite funny that the “bread & milk” bit started with the Blizzard of ‘78. Before then, no one hardly rushed to grocery stores pre-snowstorm I guess. 😉

    1. Hence why we’ll never see another blizzard of 78 in terms of overall impact and loss of life.

    2. If anybody really needs that much break & milk, they may as well just get it this weekend. I normally do my mother’s grocery shopping on Sunday mornings. I go at a time when it’s not too busy in there (except if the Pats play at 1PM) though I suspect it will be a little busier than normal.

      Sometimes people are unfairly labelled as a panic person in a pre-storm “rush” when they may be just changing their normal shopping day so they don’t have to go out in the inclement weather. Some people have physical health limitations that would be a very good reason for doing such a thing. I’ve never been a big fan of how we lump everybody into the same category. We’re not all the same. We all have our reasons for what we do, and so long as those reasons are not for the purpose of harming another, it’s none of my business. 🙂 And I certainly don’t care what’s on your shopping list unless maybe you’re making dinner for me. 😉

      1. I always thought the same re my regular day being confused with panic shopping.

        As I recall, some of the lack of food in 78 was because we of that time period had never had a storm that closed roads for a week. Not only could we not drive to a store, but regular deliveries were unable to reach the store. Also, shopping that week would not have taken into consideration while families eating every meal for a week

        1. Well, I don’t like it.

          It’s maxing itself out too far west vs. the 0z run or the 12z GFS.

          Still plenty of time though and I’m sure the solution will change several more times.

          1. Don’t be looking for this thing to appear as a “classic low coming up the coast”. It’s nothing like that.

            That European model solution actually helps confirm a little further the trends we saw with the previous runs.

          1. Not really. It’s just a transfer from primary to secondary (close together) as the system stacks under the upper low. We’ve seen this many, many times.

            1. It’s a pretty fascinating setup. Would have been great to have this thing in January with some colder surface air in place.

    1. Those were always the favored areas for the “big jackpots” so far, even with a more eastward overall shift.

      This 12z ECMWF does not represent a sudden big change in anything. It represents a continuation of the trends we saw established recently.

  70. 12z runs of the computer guidance looks good for me. Double digit snowfall a real possibility

    1. I don’t think I’ve ever asked you before what elevation you are at.

      Elevation is going to be helpful for the real big totals.

      1. Not sure on JJ but I’m at about 700′. Always helps this time of year. Was very evident with the snows this morning.

  71. Somebody needs to let the Bruins know that even though they took the 2nd and 3rd periods off in the last game, they shouldn’t be taking the 1st period off in today’s game. 😛

    I have to DVR the rest of this to watch a livestream Bat Mitzvah and I’d better come back to that game later today to a better effort.. HAHA

      1. Yeah, but he’s doing it. The players have been off since 1/3 of the way through the last game.

  73. FWIW,
    I did NOT like the Euro Solution.

    I think I am OFF the SNOW band wagon and on the RAIN/Sleet/mix to some snow with perhaps 1-3, 2-4 inches in the end. 🙂

          1. It’s a big difference in outcomes between the two runs as far as p-types and snow amounts from my area up through Boston.

    2. So you’re reacting to one model run that essentially supports the solution I’ve been talking about?

      You guys confuse me!

  75. Model runs coming out 1hr later starting tomorrow. Just in time for the biggest day of model watching, lol

  76. The B’s: I think they might want to learn how to pass the puck. Their play is absolutely gross!

  77. Reminder: 1 run of 1 model does not a trend make. A trend is identified over at LEAST 2 runs (not including the initial).

    You’re at run #1 of the European model being SLIGHTLY further west than the run before it, for a low that is DYING. Pay attention to the other one, and what is going on above.

  78. Yeah we’ve all been through this rodeo before and know the models are going to keep doing their run to run adjustments. Unfortunately from a forecasting perspective, slight shifts (~25-30 miles) like what the Euro just did may have big implications on the forecast in areas where a lot of people live. Not gonna have any more clearer answers probably until tomorrow night/Monday morning.

  79. Monterey CA is a mess. A levee let loose and there are evacuations of thousands. And more to follow in next days with the levee still compromised.

  80. Things are moving along. New low is wheeling ESE and intensifying. The flow around it keeps the ocean-effect rain/snow shower threat going for about 8 more hours, but probably diminishing with time until it’s a done deal late this evening.

    A nice break tomorrow.

    Then it’s the lead-in to the larger event upcoming.

    I just really wish people would stop assuming the term “northeaster” translates to “big snow for wherever my back yard is”. It’s not that difficult to find a reliable source of information to get the reason story on what we can and cannot determine at a certain time, and then check back to find out details as we can determine them. When did this become so hard for so many people?

  81. Let me see…

    More West
    Nam
    GDPS
    ICON
    EURO

    More East
    GFS
    UKMET

    Split the difference
    RDPS

    I’d like to see a little more consistency.

    I feel like I Am on a roller coaster…… 🙂

    2. The NAM was actually further EAST on its 12z run over its 06z.

      Also, we’re paying attention to the initial low center, the one that was always supposed to be the westward one, and not the new center, the one responsible for triggering the cooling process.

    3. You’re never going to get that many models to all agree. The key in meteorology regarding model guidance is knowing what to not pay attention to as much as knowing what to pay attention to.

    1. Lol. Yeah I think this will probably be a “Worcester Hills Special”

      I forget but I’m somewhere around ~800 ft or so

  83. For 12z on March 14, position of low center…

    00z NAM: Just east of NJ and just south of western LI.
    06z NAM: Just south of central LI.
    12z NAM: Just south of eastern LI.

    How is this a trend more to the west? This is a trend to the EAST.

  84. An advanced reminder that when NWS issues their first call snowfall map, it won’t be their FINAL call snowfall map.

    It will be their initial call which will then be updated accordingly, such as the scientific process calls for.

      1. Not sure what they will decide (probably already have decided) but I’d say the overnight update (early Sunday).

  85. Gross day today. Off and on cold RAIN since this morning. If I squint I can see a few flakes mixed in. Just raw and gross.

  86. According to my Woods Hill Weather Forecasting Model – we are at 215 comments by 3:00pm which means a storm of significance is guaranteed to hit the region. If we hit 300 comments before 8:00pm I’m going to guarantee at least 6 inches of snow in the Boston area.

    1. Just make sure you have that snow maps post ready to go as soon as they start popping them out there. 😛

  87. Winter Storm Watch up for my area. Reading the discussion the thinking is one to one and half feet of snow

  88. March 31 – April 1, 1997 was epic. There will never be anything like it in my lifetime. As TK mentioned, it poured at first; for hours and hours, buckets of cold rain. Then it changed to the heaviest of snow. I barely slept that night, as I had to look outside at the miracle that was happening. The sky absolutely unloaded snow between 1am and 5am in Brookline. Throw in the time of year, the thunder and lightning, the wind, and the tremendous amount of qpf, and that to me was the storm of the century. On my deathbed I will be mumbling “remember the April Fool’s storm.” And those family members surrounding my bed will be whispering “he’s always been a weather nut.”

    2. Funny, I just don’t remember that much rain.
      I had to walk the dog after dinner and it was SNOWING in buckets. I Had to drive home from work in Framingham at 5PM
      and I swear it was snowing on the way home or at least mixing.

  89. NWS Boston has watches up now as well for the higher terrain areas of western and central MA:

    URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
    309 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2023

    MAZ002>004-008-009-026-120915-
    /O.NEW.KBOX.WS.A.0005.230314T0000Z-230315T1200Z/
    Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-
    Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
    Including the cities of Charlemont, Greenfield, Orange, Barre,
    Fitchburg, Chesterfield, Blandford, and Ayer
    309 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2023

    …WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
    WEDNESDAY MORNING…

    * WHAT…Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12
    inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph.

    * WHERE…The high terrain of western and central Massachusetts.

    * WHEN…From Monday evening through Wednesday morning.

    * IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Heavy
    wet snow combined with gusty winds could bring down tree
    branches and result in power outages.

    * Additional information…snowfall and impacts will likely vary
    greatly with elevation.

  95. My reaction complete opposite of yours looking at the NAM. First time any forecast guidance has showed your area as a jackpot zone.

    1. And again, this is why we don’t utilize this model until it’s in the right time frame for reliability. This is NOT that time frame. 😉

    2. TECHNICALLY that scenario is not outrageous in itself. If the energy was more focused toward the low that would be the easternmost of a pair, but it’s really just one center, then this could technically take place. The solution is not impossible.

  97. 18Z RDPS more West than NAM. Crap loads of Rain East.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023031118&fh=69&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023031118&fh=75&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    TONS OF RAIN before Snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023031118&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Kuchera Snow at 84 hours, still some snow coming down

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023031118&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  101. Well I guess I am the outlier. So far I believe nothing about Tuesday. Speculating is fun, fun, fun but believing is different.

    To add to that I do believe in the Butterfly Effect!

  102. It is interesting to watch the models try to reconcile the interaction/phasing btwn the impressive Great Lakes energy and southern stream disturbance.

  106. In my opinion the NWS first call snow map relies too heavily on climatology and not enough on the situation at hand.

    Watch for adjustments.

      1. I saw that too. I actually really don’t agree with it at all.

        They were barking about dynamic cooling etc. in the discussion really loudly and then didn’t include it at all for areas they should have, IMO.

      3. That map shows 12-18″+ in all of Litchfield County and 0-1″ all of Hartford County. Quite the drop off from a lot to nothing over the county line (approximately 1 mile).

        Coincidence that those two adjacent counties are under the jurisdiction of different NWS offices?

    1. It’s a totally different end of the season but that snowfall distribution is very close to what happened in December 1992.

  108. In CT three different weather offices for our eight counties Albany NY Upton NY and Boston, MA

  110. Ch5 does just not seem to be thinking much 1-3 Boston / south & not until the very end , mostly rain .

  111. I think the NWS and others are a bit gun shy with this one for eastern areas after the last storm, even though they weren’t that far off

  112. I thought earlier today Winter Storm Watches would be posted Sunday morning after tonight’s 0z runs come out. Since the Winter Storm Watch was issued for my county in CT the 18z runs of the American models have shifted the big snow totals to eastern parts of SNE.

  114. From Bernie Rayno
    New Euro showing the key is the location & strength of the N trof, southern piece directed well out to sea, although northern low does draw into eastern New Eng. Southern parts of NH/VT,western Mass & eastern NY the bullseye. Boston & NYC rain will end as snow

    1. David saying no snow at coast till later Tuesday afternoon or evening and mentioned sun angle Tuesday & marginal temps

      1. Sadly, that’s my hunch, too. Could Boston squeeze out an inch or 2? Maybe. And that would kind of be in line with every other storm this winter. It’s how we’ve gotten to 12 inches or so in aggregate snow: Increments of 1 inch at a time. I know that this storm’s dynamics are different. But the temperature profile at the surface is very much the same as it’s been with practically every snow event. Marginal is kind of an overstatement. I prefer calling it too high to support much accumulating snow, in spite of dynamic cooling. And that’s going to be the problem at the immediate coast. Worcester Hills and beyond, a totally different story. I could also see Providence besting Boston with this storm.

        1. If you go with Ch. 7, Boston remains at 11.9” for the season. As far as that tv met is concerned, it’s just a big rain event here.

          I hope that amount, such as it is, will be enough in the end to beat NYC (2.2”).

  115. We did not hit 300 comments by 8pm EST – sadly for snow lovers in Boston this means that we will not even sniff anywhere close to 6 inches. Better luck next time.

    2. Well hell. I didn’t see we were supposed to. Family was here for sons birthday.

      I would have helped.

  118. If anything it seems more and more likely it will snow in Boston and eastern ma…we’ve all seen dynamic cooling at work and how quickly it can bust a forecast….very bold suggesting mostly rain in Boston in my opinion….Tom shared some maps earlier…the upper atmosphere is much colder with this storm vs The last couple and the intensity is greater…I smell snow….

    1. First half rain, second half snow for most with moderate to significant accumulation.

      NWS point and click forecast is still giving me about 1” of snow total thru Wednesday in the hills of Tolland County. Norton seems asleep at the wheel so far.

  120. The way this winter has gone I would be happy if what that run of the NAM is showing happens.

  121. Ch 7 saying same thing 1-3 Boston South saying will take awhile to stick & all mentioned the temps

  123. Like what you did there SSK with 300….DS, what does 300 comments by 10:30 suggest? Unless something changes drastically, these 1-3 boston maps will change

  125. What I posted just above is the critical 500 mb piece of energy over the Dakotas.

    I don’t like this idea of the low further east and then being captured and yanked back to the coast as the 500 mb feature captures the surface low and yanks it back to the coast.

    I think it keeps coastal concerns in play, in spite of low astronomical high tides and it makes for a snowy late Tuesday into the first half of Tuesday night in eastern half of New England.

    1. When I say I don’t like it, I mean because of the impacts, not because I don’t think it will happen.

  126. Damn, it’s official. The Islanders can no longer catch the Bruins for the conference title.

    Amazing season for the Bruins clinching a playoff spot this early.

    1. It’s all good mark but it means nothing if they can’t get the ultimate goal accomplished & those exact words are coming from the locker room , absolutely must , must stay healthy!!!!!

  128. I know. When one looks at the GFS run, the low looks so far east and the precip depiction doesn’t look great, but in my opinion, this situation is volatile.

    Can see that in a projection of a pressure drop to 971 mb and the 500 mb heights dropping to 519 dm, with a stall or loop just offshore.

  130. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=500wh&rh=2023031200&fh=66&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Here’s another 00z model depiction at 500 mb and another impressive 500 mb closing off low tracking just south of us.

    I think the message is consistent.

    The time Cantore was dancing in Plymouth over the thunder snow in 2015, it was an even stronger 500 mb deepening low tracking right underneath us like this one is depicted to. Yes, it was in an even colder lower atmosphere than this go around, but again, this setup leaves us very susceptible to a high impact outcome.

  137. Landed in London and I see the Euro is going bonkers. Looks like a heavy rain to pasty heavy wet snow

    1. Great! But I thought you were going to France?
      Are you taking the train the rest of the way?
      I thought for sure you’d fly to Paris?
      are you going to enjoy the London area for a bit before you move on?

      Enjoy!!

    2. Hi Hadi, London is great! When do you go on to the French Alps?

      We were delayed several hours leaving Logan yesterday due to the rocket launch that failed several times. We were delayed boarding for 2 hours and then sat on the runway for another 90 mins as the FAA had airspace closures along the Florida coast. Finally landed in Jamaica at 730.

      They have been in a drought here for some time with water restrictions looking more likely soon. Also no daylight savings time here. Sad to miss the storm Tuesday and hope everyone stays safe.

  138. Good morning all.

    Just took a look at all the available guidance. Models still kind of all over the place. The Euro is certainly back in the snow camp.

    Euor
    GFS
    CMC/GDPS

    All have rain to heavy snow with various amounts of accumulation.

    All of the others have the same scenario with much more rain and much less snow.

    So here is the most recent NWS snow map, far superior
    to the piece of crap map they first put out and I guarantee this is NOT the last adjustment. 🙂

    https://www.weather.gov/images/box/winter/StormTotalSnow.jpg

  139. I had to watch channel 10 news last night as ch 5 had basketball and 4 was running over for whatever reason.

    The guy on ch 10 had my area on the Western edge of 2-4 and almost in the 4-6 range. His map was reasonable given the guidance available at that time.

    I would think it would be upped just a tad now.

    Now we have to wait an extra hour for this morning’s guidance.

    I wonder how they resolve all of the ingredients this morning???

    Fun times ahead

  140. A little excerpt from the NWS discussion kind of sums thing up:

    As mentioned, it`s a very complex evolution that models
    struggle mightily with.

        1. I said that out loud as I was looking at my phone and my wife shot me a dirty look. I had to explain, LOL

  142. I am certainly in an area where power outages are possible with 12-18 inches expected and a heavy wet snow clinging to everything.

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