The Week Ahead

96 Comments

8:16PM

Upper level low pressure will be the main ruler in the weather for the coming 5 days. Variably cloudy skies will be the rule, cloudiest likely to be midweek when there is also the greatest shot of wet weather. Temperatures will not be all that warm, but should be sitting mostly around the seasonal normal, still feeling a bit cool compared to the very warm March weather we had here in southern New England.

By next weekend, early signs point to high pressure dominating, with fair and milder weather.

With no widespread soaking rain, fire danger will remain high throughout the week, with the possible exception of a brief period during the middle of the week.

Forecast for the week ahead for RI, eastern MA, and southern NH…

THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few passing rain showers. Overnight lows 36-41. Daytime high 54-59. Wind NW-W 5-15 MPH at night, 10-20 MPH with higher gusts during the day.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. High 55-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers and drizzle. Low 39. High 53.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 41. High 54.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 33. High 55.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 36. High 61.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 40. High 63.

96 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  1. Thanks TK.
    The fire danger will remain high with already red flag warnings up for a good chunk of SNE tomorrow. The pollen count will also be on the high side as well. As I said the other day if we don’t get a good soaking in April or May I think there could be some problems this summer. In summer months it is rare to get an all day washout with most of our rainfall coming from showers and thunderstorms.

  2. New NAO and MJO phase, we might be able to get something decent next weekend. Anything will probably be short lived though.

      1. After three ackers burnt. I saw it on line, not far from my house I think. They should ban burning right now till we get rain. My neighbor was burning yesterday. I don’t burn, but have no problem with it.but right now with no rain I think it’s a huge, huge risk. My entire neighborhood burns. I’m not a huge rain guy, but boy bring it on.

  5. Sometimes these brush fires start with some throwing a cigarette out there car window. It is has been dry and it does not take much of a spark to get a brush fire to start and spread quickly.

    2. I cringe every time I see a cigarette butt come flying out of a car window. Even if it wasn’t so dry it’s so sad to have streets littered with them

  6. Thanks TK

    I find it ironic for all who dislike winter that now we are paying for it and very could into the summer. Even though I believe we should get some relief at the end of April the into May.

    1. Hadi – I understand what you are saying. I think if there is a significant change in any season, there will be negative results down the road. We are seeing them now but hopefully there will be a switch enough to get the rain we desperately need.

      1. How r we paying for it? Is it the seasonable weather or the no rain? I’m confused by yours and hadi’s comment, for Easter everyone’s outside enjoying the beautiful weekend and saying how beautiful the winter and now is and then u come on this blog to see this, there hasn’t been any bad weather to get us back for the last 6 months. 🙂

  7. Me and my wife were just talking about the mbta and how long they have been around, ridership is at record levels, why wouldn’t they expand the trains? My wife says its like the built all the stations 100 yrs ago and bought the trains and have never updated anything, everything’s old and outdated, so embarrassing and so sad

  8. Charlie,

    When was the last time we had 52 acres burn in Brimfield Mass? I was talking about how we are now about 7 inches short on precip for the year and if this continues we will see major shortaged for the summer.

  10. first kayak dock bone dry. The second dock is low as well. If we do not have any rain i could be talking about no kayaking on the river. We need a good one inch to 2 inches to rise the marshland

    1. Matt – how typical/often is it for you to see the docks dry? I’m curious as to how quickly they dry and then how quickly it can turn around. Thank you !

      1. usually the closest dock dries up in late june. The second one usually has water all year but sometimes in late summer the second one dries up. this year it might be june by the look of things we we do not get rain and a good inch or 2

        1. That is a huge difference. I don’t know how long you’ve been living there but have you seen it dry up this early before and then correct itself. You really have my curiosity up. Thanks for the answers.

          1. No i have not seen it dry up this early and my dad said it never dried up like this ever over the 40 something years that he came here.the house that i am living in use to be my dads parents (grandparents) house so I came here all the time and there was always water down there unless it was late summer then some years it was dry but the area that we built the second dock has water year round. One thing for sure is that there will be no river otters around

      2. also it can turn around really quick since wter of stream comes down The top of the river or bottom might be even worse than what i have. I had not gone that far yet.

  11. Not to step on anybody’s toes or anything, but I’m not sure what disliking winter snow has to do with the lack of rain. Sure, I hate snow with a passion and wish I never would see another flake. But, that has zero to do with the lack of rain. The weather is what it is, and no amount of hating or liking a particular type of weather will change it. If I recall, we did have pretty normal precip in December, January and early Feb, it was just liquid.

    1. 🙂 I don’t think you are stepping on anyone’s toes and you are of course absolutely correct. I can’t speak for Hadi but I did not intend to say that wishing made anything so and apologize if I gave that impression. Maybe it is better to say for those who dislike snow there is a good reason for it 🙂 I do believe that an abnormal weather pattern creates problems that can become serious and we are on the way to seeing that and I hope that nature sees fit to compensate!

      To take it one step further, does anyone have figures on how each month met with typical water levels? I tend to think Brad is right that we were pretty close to normal until into February.

  12. Just curious how many of the new bloggers here now came from wbz. Not a bad day out there today. I guess it will get cooler by midweek.

    1. Hi John – how is the wind down your way? Sure glad it wasn’t this windy for the fire you had in town.

    2. I came over from BZ beginning of this winter but didn’t post there regularly until shortly before I came here. I was trying to get more discussion over there to bring back some people and get people to post who may have been afraid before, but as expected, the trolls were too much.

      1. I’m glad you came here. I didn’t post much over there either but read a lot and always enjoyed the information until the problem posters came along.

  13. Question – does the fact that we were not far below average really have a bearing on the fire danger now? In other words, does the water level enter into the picture as much as the lack of snow on the ground, keeping the brush wet for prolonged periods? It seems that the rain events we did have were few and far between allowing everything to dry out, especially with the higher than normal temps.

    I looked for some data but so far haven’t found any. Probably because I’m not sure exactly where to look.

    1. Vicki, not sure about the exact precip amts either but it does seem like they were few and far between, with majority coming earlier in the late fall/early winter period. I think (and someone correct me if im wrong) that a wet ground will absorb a lot of the sun’s energy through evaporation, thus the stronger sun this time of year wouldnt be as much of an issue. However, right now with no moisture to absorb, most of the suns energy and heat is being directly transferred to the surface and heating it up faster. Not sure how much of a role that plays, but regardless of when and how much precip we got over the winter I feel like whenever you get a strong sun with low relative humidity and a strong wind theres always a fire danger.

  14. I am new and I followed many of you on the BZ blog. I cannot proclaim to be proficient in any type of forecasting but enjoy the wonder of weather and reading everyone’s model analysis. I live in Plymouth and while I won’t be able to add much to weather forecasting I would be happy to share conditions here and hopefully pick up some tips along the way.

  15. Thankfully the fire danger in Northern NE is receding. Besides Northeastern Maine, the Mt. Washington summit area is getting steady doses of snow, in fact, down to 3000-3500 feet elevation near the Hermit Lake Shelter. Not a tremendous amount, but still 2-4 inches every day this week, with the possibility for more tomorrow. I’m glad they’ve returned to some semblance of normalcy.

    Still need the rain around here, though. It’s so incredibly dry.

  16. Still no appreciable precip in the area thru the 10 day GFS that I can see. Not a lot of moisture around anywhere, really. Southern plains looks to have a little wet weather early to mid week, but nothing significant for the northeast. Both GFS and Euro still show increasing temps starting friday into saturday lasting thru the end of the 10 day GFS model run. Monday and Tuesday of next week could see mid to upper 70’s if condtions were right. Maybe a stray 80? Even into next Thursday looks like 60’s.

  17. Brad i believe January and February were below normal for precip as well. The lack of snow is very important bc it fills resevoirs, private wells etc… I was just trying to point out that the lack of overall precip whether by snow or rain is not good.

    1. Hadi – again – that’s exactly what I understood your comment to mean. I have to add that I was amazed when I drove over Sudbury River in Framingham the other day and saw the water mark from what seemed like not more than a few weeks ago about 1.5-2 feet higher than the current level. It drops frighteningly fast.

  20. Check that. I would but i’m not sure where to look. I’m pretty sure Oct-jan was right at normal for precip. Understood lack of precip is not good. It just sounded like people who dont like snow and who didnt want it were being chastised. Which is beyond absurd. Weather happens regardless of wants and wishes 🙂

    1. Brad – if you are from BZ I can see why you would think – but it just doesn’t happen here.

      My problem is I don’t know where to look for the info either.

      1. I read over there some. Today even. I invite you to look at it and tell me what you think. 😉

        1. nah but thank you – it depresses me over there so I just don’t go there since it is just not in my nature to be depressed

          1. Ok, understood. But one of the bloggers here made some interesting comments there. Thats why I was a bit defensive I guess.

  21. Snow lovers vs. snow haters has and always will be a hot button issue. It’s like the Red Sox / Yankees rivalry…without all the fights of course. It’s what keeps it interesting. The difference on here is we are civil about it, but that doesn’t mean its not a sensitive topic even for here.

    1. I agree – people tend to naturally adapt better to hot or cold temps and that probably dictates for the large part what season they prefer. As everyone knows I prefer cold BUT that doesn’t mean I “hate” the heat. I just enjoy whatever mom nature pushes my way – takes far less energy to enjoy and makes me smile!!!!

      1. i love the sunny 85+ weather but i also love the cold and snow i guess i am a minority of liking both

        1. Nah. I have a favorite but I too love all seasons. Matt in reply to above I am amazed that your dad hasn’t seen these conditions in decades. I remember you live in your grandparents home. Incredibly special.

    2. The snow lovers will always win, I believe it’s like for every 4 or 5 snow haters theres like 1 snowlover 🙂

  22. Brad – I went there and am on a phone conference so read quickly. You’ll be glad to know that I am still calm and smiling 🙂 I see the comment you are referring to and agree with what Matt said. It seems another poster understood too. Even further, we all know Matt and he is never less than respectful so need to take his comment in that light.

    the comment simply is a reminder that all weather has a place in our seasons and pretty much exactly what I said earlier that when weather patterns are drastically different as we saw this past winter problems come up in other places.

    I guess I’m not getting the snow lover/snow hater mindset. Or the hot/humid weather lover or hater mindset. It’s new england – and it’s what we get – complaining to me is (as I said) too much energy expended for absolutely no end result. Might as well simply enjoy.

      1. my best suggestion is you talk to Matt and not me if that makes sense. I should have said that from the start – although I’m never sorry to speak up for someone I admire and I very much admire Matt 🙂

          1. I didnt check what he had. I figured maybe he had 80, but he’s got mid 80’s! More like mid 70’s, maybe a stray 80 out in metro west. Pete seems like he’s a little agressive with his temps sometimes.

  25. Hi all!

    A few tweaks coming otherwise no major changes but the update probably won’t be posted until later tonight. Have a great evening!

  26. Thanks tk, ocean temps are around 50 degrees, usually they don’t hit 50 degrees until early May.

  27. WBZ-TV, my 38, and WGBX-44 have been off the air since early Sunday evening. It affects those like myself with antennas. WCVB Ch. 5 was off the air briefly yesterday as well but is back on with limited power. It seems that all these stations use the same Needham antenna.

    I am relieved that I won’t have to re-scan 🙂 but I have a bad feeling that the problem won’t be corrected anytime soon. 🙁

    1. That explains it. I heard there was a problem but could get the channels and of course have cable. Boy that’s an inconvenience. And odd it takes so long

  28. A blog about the outage was posted on the WBZ blog this morning with (so far) 49 comments….and troll free (so far).

  29. Data courtesy Taunton NWS climate section for Logan Airport….

    January : 2.67 inches, departure -0.67 inches

    February : 1.00 inches, departure -2.25 inches

    March : 1.21 inches, departure -3.11 inches

    April to date : 0.24 inches, departure -0.85 inches

    1. As one can see..and had I put in December’s precip number, which was close to avg, it has been an extremely, extremely dry Feb and March that have created the dryness.

      I cant believe the months of Feb and March each generated about 1 inch of precip. Wouldn’t be shocked if April made it 3 months in a row.

  30. I don’t think Pete B’s 80s are out there. Both the GFS and EURO have 850 temps rising rapidly Sunday, into Monday and if it ends up being a sunny warm sector, then with the drought, all of the strong April sun will go into heating. Wind direction might keep the warmest temps N/W of Boston if there’s a southerly component to the wind off of the ocean to our south.

        1. Yes :). In the back of my mind, I’m already thinking first real beach day of the year Monday. Maybe….I hope…Bring a radio and listen to the Sox 11am game, with a few hours of early season sun and sand.

          1. I was picturing you and your kids on the beach too and sad we are not in Humarock. Do you mind if I hope for temps not quite so high for Monday and then soaring. Just for the runners 🙂

            1. For sure….Monday’s temps look awful for the runners…ironic if it happens, because the weather of the last 15 days and the next 3 would be perfect for running a long marathon.

              2. By the way, the last few days with the perigean full moon, the tidal ranges have been huge ! We caught high tide over the weekend and the south river behind rexhame beach was extremely high and fast flowing. Some of the sandy walking paths adjacent to the river were ankle deep in water.

  32. And from warm weather to blizzards. I asked Pete B about blizzard criteria. He said he thinks the TWC is trying to cover for regionalisms when they use the temp. Some states have different criteria for what constitutes a blizzard just as they do droughts, wind chill warnings, heavy snow warnings, etc. He said Ch 7 uses the strict definition which is SUSTAINED wind at 35 or greater for 3 hours or more. They feel frequent gusts are ill-defined and “nebulous.”

Comments are closed.