Sunday March 12 2023 Forecast (8:52AM)

334 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 12-16)

First, this reminder: If you have manual clocks and didn’t change them yet, move them forward 1 hour! Daylight Saving Time began at 2:00 a.m. today! Now, onto the weather, and today will be a very nice late winter Sunday under the influence of a small high pressure area. There will be an exception though, and that is Cape Cod and portions of the South Shore to South Coast just to the west of there, under a canopy of ocean-born clouds with a north northeast wind and low level moisture in the atmosphere. Gradually, today’s wind will be turning a little more northeast to east, and eventually, this cloud area will start to expand westward, so more coastal areas may lose the sunshine as we go through the day. However, it will at least be dry in the areas that see the cloudiness for any outdoor plans… Now, to the storm threat. A significant late-winter storm is on its way, impacting our region starting Monday and lasting into a good part of Wednesday. This doesn’t mean 3 days of full-on stormy weather. That peaks during Tuesday, but the lead-in Monday comes as clouds thicken up (although this may be taking place above a blanket of lower clouds already in place anyway). Low pressure is going to be passing just to our south and in an elongated form with a bit of a dumb-bell spin upcoming as the low becomes captured by its upper level partner and ends up doing a cyclonic loop probably just off to the southeast and east of New England Tuesday through early Wednesday. It will also be intensifying during this time a lot closer to us than many of its predecessors have done, and some of those were actually weakening as they came through, not intensifying. So this particular storm is a different animal compared to many we’ve seen this season. The main precipitation arrives late Monday night and lasts until late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning. I think a snow or mixed rain/snow start is likely inland and a start as rain in the coastal plain for sure. It likely rains for a number of hours at the start of the storm in places like Providence and Boston and all those coastal communities, but as the storm intensifies offshore, the process of dynamic cooling will drag down cold air from above and change that rain to snow for most of, and eventually all of the region. This will take place last over Cape Cod, which will end up with the least amount of snow from the storm, with amounts building up as you head west and north. My outline of p-type and snow amounts for this system goes like this. Starts a couple hours either side of midnight Monday night / Tuesday morning as mix/snow for southwestern NH and north central MA, mix/rain south central MA, and rain eastern CT through RI and all of eastern MA. Flip to snow takes place in a general west to east motion over the inland areas (west and northwest of the coastal plain) by around dawn or shortly after, and into the coastal communities including the cities of Providence and Boston by around mid morning Tuesday, and lastly to Cape Cod by around noon Tuesday. One caveat about that: A potential dry slot can get into the South Coast region during Tuesday morning-midday which means that little or nothing may fall for an hour or two or three, which would make the change-over timing temporarily a moot point. Once precipitation resumed, however, it would be snow, or quick rain to snow, and I suspect most of what falls on Cape Cod will be snow for the balance of Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. It will be Tuesday afternoon and evening that most of the snow accumulation is seen, and my first call on that is a slushy coating to 2 inches immediate South Coast including Cape Cod, 2-4 inches just inland from South Coast through the South Shore, 4-8 inches Providence up I-95 belt including Boston and the MA North Shore to the NH Seacoast and as far west as south central MA and northeastern CT with the potential for over 8 in the higher elevations of the 4-8 area, 8-12 inches from about I-495 from I-90 northward to include Worcester northward to southwestern and interior southern NH, with 12+ potential in the highest elevations of the 8-12 area. There may actually be a third low center (tertiary low) that rotates all the way around and brings one final batch of heavier snowfall into eastern areas early Wednesday morning before everything winds down during the day as spotty snow and rain showers. Snow load issues bring about the threat for damage to trees and power lines, and resultant power outages. Where this combines with wind it will be even more of an issue. And the wind aspect of this storm is significant. We start out with east and northeast winds increasing as the low center starts to pass by to the south, and then as the elongated set of lows pivots, our winds will back more to the northeast and north with time during Tuesday and into Wednesday (eventually north to northwest). Strongest wind gusts will be in coastal areas, and they may exceed 50 MPH there (Cape Ann, South Shore, Cape Cod most vulnerable to this). Thankfully, our tides are on the astronomically lower side, so while there will still likely be some coastal flooding and splashover at high tide times, it should be limited somewhat. Folks in coastal communities most vulnerable to storm-driven tidal issues should still be ready for minor to moderate flooding issues. Things calm down nicely during Wednesday night as the storm finally pulls away, and high pressure builds in for a nice “recovery” day Thursday.

TODAY: Sunshine except lots of clouds Cape Cod and MA southern South Shore to eastern South Coast, eventually expanding west and north, limiting the sun in more coastal areas with time. Highs 40-47. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NE-E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Highs 39-46. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow/mix/rain arriving (snow favoring higher elevations inland, rain favoring most areas initially). Lows 33-40. Wind E-NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in coastal areas.

TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow well inland and higher elevations. Rain changing to snow elsewhere. Snow will become heavy at times. Temperatures fall slightly to 30-37. Wind NE-N 15-25 MPH inland and 25-35 MPH coast, with gusts above 30 MPH inland and above 50 MPH coast.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow tapers off gradually but still can be heavy at times. See above discussion for accumulation expectations. Lows 28-35. Wind N 15-35 MPH, higher gusts especially in coastal areas.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with snow and rain showers likely. Highs 35-42. Wind N-NW 15-30 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy early, then clearing. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 41-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 17-21)

Unsettled weather potential late March 17 into March 18 then a drier trend. Starting mild, then cooling. Vernal Equinox – March 20.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 22-26)

Early days of spring continue to look active with the good shot at a couple low pressure systems impacting the region with rain/mix/snow potentials and temperatures back to below normal.

334 thoughts on “Sunday March 12 2023 Forecast (8:52AM)”

    2. Thank you. I hope it’s not riddled with typos. I wrote it in 15 minutes while drinking Irish Breakfast tea. 😉

    1. Could muster some gusts around 40 I think. Definitely less than the coastal plain.

  3. What an awesome write up. I know I’ll read again once I’m fully awake and will share with family. Thank you, TK!!!!

  4. I have seen a couple of TV met maps but what I found interesting is that WBZ did not put up a map yet saying they were unsure at the moment. They did outline regions and assigned probabilities of plowable snow to each region. I think plowable snow means 3″ or more.

    I am also seeing variations in wind speeds between some models. I live near the coast and we usually have splash-over in these setups. I suspect wind will be the big story for my area.

    1. Important to note that the strongest winds will be from the north in this event, not the east.

  7. Ok I found and fixed a couple typos. I was trying to give my proofreader Jules a day off – she had a long day yesterday and between the time change and 3 hour difference from here to there. Right Jules? 🙂 If you even see this haha!

    1. I didn’t take the day off, just got a later start than the rest of you 🙂 Long day plus no more party planning details in my head meant I didn’t wake up in the middle of the night 😀 (you got all but one 😉 )

  10. So if I interpret all the info correctly, Natick will have top gusts around 40 mph and 4-8 inches of snow. Is this enough to translate to snow load issues? Thanks.

    1. Yes I believe so, but if there’s some good news, the peak winds may have already occurred before about half to two thirds of your accumulation, so that may help a bit.

      Also focus on the range, not just the top number.

      1. I think people are drawn to the top number.

        For example let’s say the 4-8 inch range is 50 miles wide
        and oriented NW to SE. People near the SE end of range
        should expect closer to 4 inches and people on the NW end
        of range should expect closer to 8 inches and accordingly for those in between. Anyone near the SE end of the range
        should NEVER expect the 8 inches, even though they reside
        within the range. I don’t think people get that.

        That is why I am a fan of smaller range areas,
        For example say 4-6 inches for 25 miles and 6-8 inches
        for 26-miles out etc. The Same issues would still apply, but
        over a shorter range. 🙂

        2. I tend to look at the area neighboring me. I figure it’s top number is my low number or vice versa. So far it has worked well

    1. For Boston it was an OK storm. Nothing Super about it in any way shape or form. I think we got 13 inches, a nice storm but not block buster by any stretch. Best part was THUNDER SLEET towards the end of it. Now that was AWESOME! Scared the crap out of our dog as I was walking him when the thunder and lightning hit!

      1. I don’t mean to belittle that storm as it was a monster in many areas. My Comment was for Boston Only. 🙂

    2. Thanks for reminding us Jimmy. I remember it well as I was well into adulthood (30+). My church service was cancelled the next day as precipitation lingered. Quite a storm.

      1. Tom, would a stronger 500mb feature equate to the surface low being sucked in closer to the coast?

        1. I was thinking the same question. Could be a possibility, I think. It does depend on its location and how well its in phase with the southern stream disturbance.

  20. Thanks TK.

    I had no idea all these years that you have an actual proofreader! I thought you always relied on us posters reading your discussions. 🙂

  21. TK – Very surprising that you’re going with 4-8 inches for Boston. The tv mets and AccuWeather aren’t giving the city much of a chance other than slushy coatings. Hope your accumulation forecast works out. 🙂

    I will say that NWS discussion has Boston-Providence changing to snow by Tuesday afternoon.

  23. I don’t think it is going to be like the what the 18z NAM run showed yesterday for your area.

  25. I don’t see a fundamental run to run big difference on the NAM runs.

    Same big picture idea.

    It’s just struggling with the phasing btwn 500 mb feature and southern stream.

    So sometimes it’s had an elongated low, sometimes it’s much more compact.

    But with the 500mb evolution, even this run should have snow at some point in eastern mass.

    1. Tom I hate to say it but the plows may not even be out for this one down here , I just don’t see this as a big deal for us with the exception of some pretty decent rain . And I could be totally wrong

      1. I’ve seen it snow at 40 degrees MANY times.
        At the rates it will be coming down, the temp would drop
        to 32-34 very rapidly!

  27. I don’t know I just can’t overlook these temperatures & for the places that go to snow later on Tuesday if all depends on the timing of its arrival as it’s critical . I was going to stock up on some firewood but I’m not even going to bother .

    1. As I told you be careful about focusing on those specific temperatures…

      Most of the snowfall accumulation down there is going to take place Tuesday night.

    1. Need some more support from other models, but I am getting a sneaky feeling we may be in for it. Some of this is coming
      from the latest Euro run as well. 🙂

        1. I am dying to see the EURO!!!
          We’ll be going out later. Hopefully, I’ll get to see it
          before we leave the house.

  32. Well, I guess I have to cave and buy into a snowstorm. I had already settled into the acceptance phase of grief weeks ago on this winter and didn’t want to be pulled back in to only have rug pulled.

    Should be wild out here in the hills.

  34. It also though really hits the coast with a lot of wind for a long time. I’m afraid for what south shore communities will look like once this is finished.

      1. Indeed.

        Multiple tide cycles and what makes the high tide very high is what makes the low tide not very low, so there might not be much of a low tide.

      1. From above, SSK “Strongest wind gusts will be in coastal areas, and they may exceed 50 MPH there (Cape Ann, South Shore, Cape Cod most vulnerable to this).”

        Like Tom, I’m very worried about the area I love.

        1. Thanks Vicki my bad I read it so quick as I’m following this & tidying up the house as visiting nursing is coming at 1 as wife was discharged late yesterday afternoon

  35. kind of a banana-high setup too with this, no? While not that cold, kinda looks like one. Will rely on TK or whoever else know WAY the hell more than me on this stuff.

  36. Water temps about 5° above normal lots of latent heat to draw on. Gulfstream looks like its also has above normal water temperatures.

    2. This is exactly what helps deepen the storm amazingly rapidly. And also what helps draw the cold air down.

  37. Final 12Z NAM Kuchera SNOW

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023031212&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Snow Depth Change

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snodpc_acc-imp&rh=2023031212&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Snow Depth

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snod-imp&rh=2023031212&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Does not quite rate a “COWABUNGA” from me, but I do like this run. Will it verify? We shall see. Certainly a possibility.

    Now for the other guidance to DASH me against the rocks!

  38. The 12Z HRWFV keeps rain in the coastal plain until
    after 20Z on Tuesday. A ton of wasted QPF

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrwfv3&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2023031212&fh=56&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrwfv3&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2023031212&fh=56&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrwfv3&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2023031212&fh=58&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrwfv3&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2023031212&fh=59&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrwfv3&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2023031212&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    KUCHERA SNOW

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrwfv3&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023031212&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    ME NO LIKE THIS RUN!!!!!!

    Great Model Consistency! Gotta love it!!!!!

      1. Depends. We shall see. Could be AND could be a lot more snow than you think. The jury is still out.

  44. In my opinion, I do think there is model consistency. They all have a similar diagnosis of what will unfold.

    Yes, when it comes to rain vs snow, their biases come in. GFS too cold, etc. I suppose that can be frustrating to look for consistency in if an area gets rain, a little snow, some snow, clobbered.

  48. If the GFS is at 969 mb and 1st time I saw the projected 500 mb height at 516 dm, I figured the overamplified euro will get to 965 mb or lower on its 12z run.

  49. Quick look at 12Z stuff so far. I need to see more but if I’m going to make any changes it will be to increase the snowfall in Southeastern MA.

    I won’t do that right now so just everything stands as it is and I will reassess later.

    I’m only going to be able to check the blog periodically today a little bit less than typically for a Sunday as I have a very full slate.

    1. That loop really concerns me. Particularly the 1st half of the loop, where the low is headed into shore.

      It’s not only the wind, it’s also the whole momentum of the system into the coast. Double whammy.

      1. You are so correct. We are fortunate to have astronomically low tides at this time. Otherwise it could be a disaster.
        It still may be trouble as it is, but imagine if we had astronomically High tides.

        1. Indeed. That afternoon Tuesday tide is 8.3ft. In about 5 days, it’s 11 ft. Thank goodness for when this is happening.

      2. I watched it over and over and was thinking the same but just don’t have the expertise so was hoping against hope that I was wrong.

  56. IF the Euro comes in like it did with the 0Z run, I would say GAME ONE! If, however, it comes in like some of these others, It’s time to whack one’s head against the wall!!!

      1. Of all days! Of course it will be even worse tomorrow, which may be the single most active model watching day of this Winter season!!!

  58. I am just NOT comfortable with the model discrepancy
    so close to this significant event. Put aside snow depth and snow depth change for a moment and just consider the Kuchera and 10:1 snow amounts we have viewed.

    For this system we are ranging from a low of an inch or so for Boston to a high of 17.5 inches with everything but the kitchen sink in between. How the hell does one know with any confidence what the correct amount will be or even the correct range. (OK, TK it is OK to insert with years of meteorological experience! Yeah I get that, but even with that it is nearly impossible!)

  59. Longshot, your windy app is tons of fun. Watching the winds progress from Monday through Wednesday is fascinating. Thank you for the recommendation

    1. Quite a difference based on models. The Euro and GFS looked far apart on wind speeds earlier today.

      Also you can click on new snow and see model differences.

      1. The different options are amazing

        I sent it to my son who says he uses it all of the time for surfcasting. He said that is is surprising how much a cross wind of 15 mph can bow your line out.

  60. NWS SNOW MAP, updated at 11:57 AM

    https://www.weather.gov/images/box/winter/StormTotalSnow.jpg

    I must say, that in general the NWS does an Excellent job with their snow maps. Given the model discrepancy, how can one
    argue with this map? It could be low Boston and points South, but who knows at this point. I can’t find fault with this map at this point. I am certain it WILL be updated this PM after they
    incorporate the EURO into their thinking.

    As I said, IF the Euro supports the NAM, I say GAME ON!
    If not, well then we wait and see.

  62. Dave , I think we throw out all the models that end in PS. That is looking like it stands for poor solution….

    2. So all the Euro has done is confuse me some more!
      The 10:1 snow is a little less than the 0Z run.
      But it looks like a lot more RAIN at first than the 0Z run.

      Total 10:1 snow

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023031212&fh=102&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      Ok, they’re all in.

      I’m thinking something like 2-4 or 3-6 inches in Boston following a CRAP LOAD of RAIN!!!

      I wonder how much, if any, do these models change with
      upcoming runs.

      They don’t appear to know what is going on.

        1. What kind of storm system is that. NOT the kind I want to see. Just too much marine influence for the 1st 2/3 to 3/4 of the storm.

          GIMMIE The NAM please. 🙂

  66. Thank you TK for a great description of what this storm could bring. Looks like quite an interesting storm.

    Vicki, thanks for the pictures of the hail and lightning. Fascinating!

  67. Thought I would take a weather break and watch the Bruins but that didn’t work out. When do the next major models come out next?

  69. I don’t know about anyone else, but I’ve seen zero trends on the models. It’s still a disjointed mess.

    1. I agree with that sharp cut off they have, its the matter of where that sharp cut off happens. I am thinking that sharp cut off ends up somewhere between I95/128 and 495. I also think most of the snow east and along I95 will occur late afternoon and at night even if it is snowing during the day if your in eastern Mass.

  71. Seems that 2-3 for Boston is what I’m mostly seeing & my gut is saying that might be to high as I just have a feeling rain is the primary precipitation type Boston / south right to the cape .

  72. Regardless of how much snowfall in any given area, it should melt away fairly quickly as it turns mild behind the storm into next weekend.

  73. I still am very much in the camp of mostly rain in Boston (even Tuesday evening) and the immediate coastline from Boston south. In fact, I’m more in that camp than I was yesterday. An inch or 2 of snow, perhaps, in the city itself. Maybe. And, all gone by Wednesday afternoon.

    Couple of observations today on my run: Extraordinarily soft soil for March. That’s been a feature all winter. I did some gardening with a friend at a community garden. Some of the vegetation, which hadn’t been remove in the fall, is still alive. Can’t say I’ve ever seen that before, and I’ve been gardening a long time. It’s quite mild at the surface and in the ground. While the temps may be marginally below normal right now, we’re barely having frost in the city. A few of nights a week at best. This is a very familiar theme all winter.

    I’ve seen rowers on the Charles every week this winter. Since I’ve lived in Boston – so from 2003 – that has not happened. In fact, most winters I don’t see any rowers from December to March. Also, I saw sailboat races on the Charles yesterday and today. Princeton, Harvard, BU, and others are participating. Never seen this in March, though occasionally I’ve seen them practice in late March. Also saw a few sailboats in February. Never saw that before.

    While this winter won’t go down as the mildest or least snowy, it’s been quite odd. And the weirdness has been persistent.

  74. To get the big snow hit in the lower elevations this time of year with a marginal lower atmosphere, everything has to work out. Change 1 variable and well ……. I think that’s why snow projections are varied.

    Models still struggling with more elongated low vs more compact low, which I’m sure has a big impact.

    Hopefully 18z, then 00z tomorrow, etc will converge to one. Otherwise we’ll head right into the event uncertain on snowfall.

  75. There have been trends on the models – you just have to know what to look for. 🙂

    After looking at the rest of the 12z suite, probably will edge my snowfall up slightly for the interior areas and a little more significantly up for the coastal areas, especially southeastern MA.

    DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE the power of dynamic cooling with this system.

    And DO NOT compare this to “all the other events” this winter. Not the same.

    2. Thanks TK. Can you up for out here also please.

      Petey B mentioned the system pulling down cold air. No surprise but made me smile

      1. Petey B is right. The dynamic cooling aspect of this event will be impressive. A common forecaster tendency is to be a little too conservative with how much the snow can start piling up when this happens with this type of deepening storm.

        “Oh but it’s so warm, how can the snow accumulate?” I’ve thought it myself. But it’s cold up there (aloft, where the snow is being made). The snow may end up a lot less “wet” than one might think, and this get the ratio close to 10:1 than one might suspect. Even if it’s “mild” at the ground (lower to middle 30s versus 20s) you are having higher ratio snow come down at a great rate into it. It scoffs at the “mild” air and piles up like crazy while it’s falling. After it’s done it settles quickly and then starts to melt rapidly after that, but that doesn’t prevent the storm from dumping quite a bit first.

        Going to be interesting to see how this goes.

        1. Yep. Not necessarily exactly 8. But let me put it this way, the amounts I posted on the blog this morning were slightly conservative.

          1. Ok so maybe more or less I get it . You & pete are apparently on the same page it seems

              1. Slowly improving thank you . I’m doing everything for her & she is to rest . Nursing came today & will be back tomorrow. She’s a bit anxious looking back at how critically I’ll she was & we are all seeing things a little bit differently. I’m on FMLA & I’m not ready to leave her yet as she needs more time , all vitals look good . Appreciate your kindness asking .

                1. Joe & I ate like crap all week so I’ll hade my famous macaroni on the table when he gets home around 6:15 from work

  80. As I said earlier, WBZ refused to put up a snow map this AM. It’s understandable given where the models are now.

    Meanwhile the B’s were down 4-1 going into the 3rd and now they’re down 4-3. They’re coming back but their puck management / passing has been terrible. About 8 minutes to go.

  82. It’s got the low looping around P-town and a ton of snow in eastern Mass.

    Even 1/3 of its projected snow in trees with wind verifying to the strength that’s in the high wind watch posted for our area.

    Needless to say, I’m happy it looks mild Thursday and Friday.

  84. Any possibility of some locations receive Blizzard Warnings at some point later due to the powerful winds expected?

    2. Yes, since temp is no longer considered, that is a possibility. I’ve discussed this (off the blog) with a colleague.

      This same colleague of mine is also of the opinion that Boston can break 20 inches of snowfall (I don’t agree at this point).

      1. There actually aren’t 3 possible tracks anymore. There’s a track that we’re just refining at this point. We know the basic track. We just need to nail down a few specifics including the behavior of the loop the low center(s) does/do.

  89. I know we’re all smart enough here not to do this, but you KNOW that somebody is going to wake up Tuesday morning in the Boston area when it’s still raining or just in the process of changing and go “STORM’S A BUST. WHERE’S ALL THE SNOW?!” This time, I’ll just chuckle at it. 😉

    1. Tk your feeling pretty confident for Boston south & some aren’t as you , do you see that changing Tk ? And what your are seeing do you think it holds.

      1. What I am seeing is posted in today’s blog, with the caveat that I may be increasing those numbers a little bit N & W, and a bit more SE.

        But don’t wake up Tue morning thinking it’ll already be snowing there. It probably won’t be until later morning, midday, or even early afternoon down that way. Most of your accumulation takes place late Tuesday and Tuesday night.

        1. And Tk are you concerned say if that takes an awful long time finally to arrive it could drastically change the forecast

          1. By the wording of your question, can I assume you view the rain/snow line advancing nw to se, as if usually does?

            In this case, it might just happen over a large area from top down.

            The snow change isn’t looking for cold air in Worcester to sweep in. It’s coming from it cooling off above us and then lots of mod-heavy precip bringing cool enough air down.

            1. So I’m hearing tom from both Tk & news Mets that yes that snow is Tuesday afternoon / evening. If that gets delayed say ( by a lot ) less time for snow correct if it were delayed say well into the night Tuesday, I’ve got to much in my head lol . I’m cooking , doing laundry & glued to the blog lol & now my shows are on

      1. If I was a super down there my current thought would be early release and just monitor the timing like crazy.

          2. Maybe Tuesday and Wednesday for some if the towns continue us to be forced to call it the night before.

  90. Philip to address your proof reading comment from 10:11 a.m. …

    I have only had an “unofficial” proofreader since about 2020. She’s a long-time friend of mine (early 1990s) and lives 3000 miles away. She will likely reply to this to confirm that information. 😉 But she doesn’t have to proofread it… 😀

  91. CPC ideas…

    6-10 day: Chilly, drier.
    8-14 day: Chilly, more active.
    3-4 week: Chilly, active.

  92. Our middle school is the town’s shelter, so, we really do get days off for no power and tree problems long after the snow has been removed.

      1. 🙂

        When I walk into school tomorrow, everyone is going to be asking if I think days off are coming, lol

    2. Surprisingly my boys are hoping there is school. They like the fact they will be out earlier in June.

      1. I think I always liked snow days more than my kids and grandkids. Now, My grands have school either way

  93. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=umv&band=10&length=24

    This, in strengthened form, will be cutting just underneath us throughout the day Tuesday.

    https://radar.weather.gov/?settings=v1_eyJhZ2VuZGEiOnsiaWQiOiJsb2NhbCIsImNlbnRlciI6Wy05Mi4yMSw0Ni44MzddLCJ6b29tIjo4LjEyNjg3NTcyMTgwMzgyLCJmaWx0ZXIiOiJXU1ItODhEIiwibGF5ZXIiOiJicmVmX3JhdyIsInN0YXRpb24iOiJLRExIIiwidHJhbnNwYXJlbnQiOnRydWUsImFsZXJ0c092ZXJsYXkiOnRydWUsInN0YXRpb25JY29uc092ZXJsYXkiOnRydWV9LCJiYXNlIjoic3RhbmRhcmQiLCJjb3VudHkiOmZhbHNlLCJjd2EiOmZhbHNlLCJzdGF0ZSI6ZmFsc2UsIm1lbnUiOnRydWUsInNob3J0RnVzZWRPbmx5Ijp0cnVlfQ%3D%3D#/

    Here, hopefully, is the Duluth, MN radar. They, like we will be Tuesday, are north of this potent 500 mb low. Our radar motion will look similar later Tuesday, precip moving from NE to SW.

    They have a Great Lake for their moisture source, we have the Atlantic Ocean.

  95. I don’t know how many people get to see the 18z ECMWF but holy smokes what a dynamic perfection for winter storm lovers.

        1. I didn’t do well on the system for snow a week ago, so sincerely, I’m not confident on Pembroke’s and Marshfield’s snowfall.

          I do know this is a completely different system from the one a week ago, with meteorological processes that should produce snow down here.

          With the wind we’ll have, less snow is better !!

        2. Our “not good” scenario is to get a handful of hours of heavy wet snow in the Tuesday mid afternoon thru evening time frame, caking trees and power lines, during a time where a N wind could be gusting to 40/50 in Pembroke and 50/60 in marshfield.

    2. I like the 0 to 24 inch range over the entire area that the person circled: Probably verifies.

    3. I love some of the comments…

      “This has complete bust written all over it. Models can’t forecast storms like this.”

      “Too warm. Just rain and slop for the coastal plain.”

      Ok, sure. 🙂

  99. If you go weather.cod.edu site you could see the 18z EURO.
    It uses the Kuchera so for Boston it shows around 5 inches of snow. Widespread double digit snowfall for interior and about 10.8 inches where I am.

  100. Yes, sorry for the late chime-in. 18z Euro there.

    The 00z model suite is underway. Up first, HRRR, which will run out to 00z Wednesday (8PM Tuesday), giving us a good idea of what we look at until during the best accumulation period for eastern areas (so not a complete picture – keep that in mind if you are looking at this model).

  101. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2023031300&fh=30&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Non-snow post 🙂 🙂 🙂

    This low position concerns me. The 500 mb low is still way back to the west, which makes me think the stall/loop is destined to be very close to the mass coastline.

    Whereas a few models swung that low, elongated, way out, so it appeared the loop took place at least a bit further offshore.

    I would think a loop back right to the coast is bad for wind chances.

            1. I’m wondering if those yellow winds will help produce yellow snow……………………………

              I’ll see myself out. 😉

  103. The 00z HRRR model is showing something I described earlier. This is a flip to snow that does not occur as an organized line moving in one direction, but in splotches where heavier precipitation is occurring, so it appears irregularly in blotches that eventually merge together. This particular HRRR run has a notable area of snow appearing in Plymouth County even before the Boston area changes over.

      1. The model run does loop the low a little too far NW in my opinion though. I’m not really surprised. Seen HRRR do this. It’s marginal for this kind of synoptic intensity, really.

          1. Just going by a handful of past events. Somebody probably knows a more complete picture than I do. 🙂

  104. HRRR isn’t even done running yet and I can tell that this is a terrible run showing a scenario that is just not in the cards. It started out with a plausible idea, and then lost it completely. Not even worth summarizing it. Ciao HRRR!

    Onto the NAM.

  105. Ok I’ll summarize it for laughs. HRRR takes low center about 100 miles east of Block Island, then hooks it NW across Cape Cod, right over SSK’s neighborhood, westward across Vicki’s town, enters CT via the northeast corner of the state while looping, exits southeastern CT and heads southward for the tip of Long Island with a rain/snow line turning around and backing up all the way to southern NH followed by a dry slot big enough to have a picnic in.

    Forget it. Not happening.

  106. I hope JpDave sees your thoughts on that HRRR run, TK, before he looks at it 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. JP Dave is currently busy in his laboratory trying to find a way to warp time so the models come in earlier again…………….. 🙂

  107. I hope JP is asleep actually because he’d be going crazy over the fact the NAM is taking forever to come in. I’m not sure how much hair he has left to pull out on his head, but if he ran out he’d buy a toupee just to tear that apart while waiting for this run to finish. 😉

    1. It’s been stuck at 24 hours for like 8 minutes now. That’s an eternity in model anticipation time!

      1. Looks like it’s moving again………….
        Even I was getting nervous and that is NOT EASY to make happen.

  108. Meanwhile the FV3 is in through hour 33 and takes the initial low center across western Long Island and into southwestern CT! Secondary is way to the east. I’ll come back to that one later.

  109. Just going to post on that the HRRR 0z has a 70-knot gust that is just off Cape Cod around noonish Tuesday that pivots up to your area, TK.

    Fortunately, I saw your comment about 15 minutes ago and will toss it.

    I went to bed at 8:30 last night so avoid losing an hour of sleep.
    Regardless of what happens Tuesday or Wednesday, first period bell rings at 7:20. Commuting in the dark again.

    Vanderbilt snubbed by the NCAA selection committee. Staying up a few more minutes to see where the Commodores end up in the NIT. Vandy drew Yale in the first round.

    ‘Night, y’all!

    1. I’m going to fill out brackets for both the M & W tournaments for fun and enter the contest on ESPN. I know little to nothing about college basketball which makes this even more fun for me. 😉

  110. 00z NAM (12km) has the rain/snow line at I-495 at 12z and EAST OF CAPE COD by 15z. HOLY SMOKES! That would be one hell of a rapid dynamic cooling changeover.

    1. I’ll help out with that number SSK by thanking everyone for the all great info posted on today’s blog, especially your daily post TK!

  113. 00z NAM deepens the low from 1002mb at 18z Monday to 977mb by 18z Tuesday, qualifying as “bombogenesis” if it is correct. I think it happens anyway. It gets a bit deeper after that (968 per 3km NAM and 975 per 12km NAM). Either way, rapid intensification.

    I wonda if someone will hear thunda!

  114. 3KM NAM bullish for snowfall for my area other NAM more bullish for snowfall eastern parts of SNE.

  115. My friend is going to hate this, but definitely calling this the Pi Day Northeaster. Maybe the Pi Days since it’ll be 3-14/15. 😉

    Or Pi-Day / Ides-Day.

    Much more exciting than TWC’s “Winter Storm Sage”. Where’s the onion?!

      1. 3.14159 something something something … my son knows it out over 100 decimal places. It’s really important in math & stuff. 🙂 Geometry especially!

  116. So, taking the 2 NAMs.

    I mean, I’m not taking the snow amounts literally. Even taking 30% of those south shore projections net us 4-8 inches.

    4-8 inches of cement with hrs and hrs of strong winds.

  118. But, there’s going to be a while where we are sitting under strong NE jets at 700 and 850 mb.

    A firehose of moisture off the Atlantic in a cooling atmosphere.

  119. Those 2 NAMs are a North Shore / Boston / South Shore 10 to 20 inch snow bomb. Jackpot area.

      1. The “better” news is if that scenario were to take place I think the ratio would end up closer to 10:1 and the snow load issues would be reduced slightly.

  122. 30 years ago tomorrow, 3/13, was my 30th bday, and of course the March 13th, 1993 blizzard which screwed up the big surprise party! Tomorrow makes 60 of course and it’s nice to have another big interesting storm in the works! Thanks for all your great posts!
    TJ

  123. Having seen the GFS, we appear to have a significant disagreement between global & short range guidance in terms of snowfall distribution details.

    Surprised? NOT AT ALL. Haha!!

  124. I’ve only seen one local news so far (ch 5, first several min of the broadcast). I’m confused.

    They seemed to ignore the dynamic cooling and precip intensity to the south of Boston, and also stated the strongest winds would be early Tuesday morning. That is not going to be right. The strongest winds are going to be Tuesday afternoon & evening.

    I’m just really confused. Curious what the rest of them will have to say about the same things.

    1. JR said at 11 he thought metro Boston was going to come in on the low range of 3 & less south I believe he said .

  125. I think I figured out ch 5’s thinking. They are talking about onshore winds east to northeast during the height. No. They are going to be out of the north, maybe even the north northwest!

    So suffice it to say I do NOT agree with their thinking.

      3. Huh?
        Not even close to all.

        That makes it sound like I’m forecasting a different storm. Haha!!!

      1. If you think I’m in a different camp than everybody else than you are very much not correct. If you want a different camp you should talk to one of my colleagues who is forecasting 24 to 30 inches of snow for Boston. And yes I am being serious. For the record, I think his amounts are way too high.

        1. No I mean if I’m correct you are thinking higher amounts Boston / south where JR was thinking 3 for metro Boston & the above comment that you did not agree on from ch 5, the comment was saying you had a good handle on it taking everything into consideration,. It was a good comment my friend

          1. They have 3-6, I have 4-8. I was considering upping some amounts, slightly NW, more SE, but I haven’t done that as of yet and the decision will be made early in the morning.

      2. I hope you’re not bringing me into the conversation you’re having with him.

        I fully respect the opinions of the two meteorologists who are working on that channel tonight whether I agree with them or not. But if I want to discuss the storm with them I will contact them myself.

        My actual snowfall forecast is not drastically different from what they (or NWS) has, but there are other details I disagree with very much: Wind direction, time of peak wind. That is what I am talking about. It doesn’t somehow put me in a different camp than everybody else.

        1. Of course not I’m surprised you’d ask that , I’ve only messaged him a couple of times & he never responds same with Harvey . The only one who would always respond was Judah

          1. Contacting them via email is the best way to do it. Most of those guys won’t answer social media messaging because they get bombarded with them.

            1. I did & quite honestly I could care less if he responds or not . I like mike but he is no Harvey . I think the top 3 on 5 in order AJ, Cindy , Mike .

              2. To be fair. When I asked about the Logan equipment quite a while ago, it was wcvb that responded only after I emailed a few times. And even then the person I originally emailed never responded

                Folks from other the other three networks responded very quickly and then continued the discussion

                The one thing I NEVER brought into the conversation was anyone from whw

  126. TK, above u mentioned your snowfall forecast isn’t that different from the the TV mets and the NWS. The NWS ironically after having the least is going with 8-12” for Boston. Are u planning to up your 4-8”?

    1. No because I figured on the overnight update NWS was going to drop it back a tiny bit based on the same info I was looking at, so I opted to leave it the same for now and I have one more update to finalize it Tuesday AM before we flip to snow there.

  130. Well ….. IF the 00z suite runs are accurate, we will get to experience a very strong storm doing a loop nearly at the coastline.

    Normally, it’s around Nantucket or SE of that.

    Takes the wind threat to include more inland locations.

    What kind of storm surge could this cause ?????????

  131. There’s the surge from the wind of course, but there’s also a small rise in the ocean under the low due to the lower pressure. And the rather stationary location of the low during the loop and then the rotation down the coast when the low begins it’s southern the.on southwestward part of the loop.

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