Tuesday March 14 2023 Forecast (7:13AM)

576 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 14-18)

Pi Day Northeaster underway. Intensifying low pressure gets captured by its upper level partner while moving to the north, and will end up performing a cyclonic loop just off the MA East Coast later today and this evening. As of early morning, moderate to heavy rainfall is occurring in most of the WHW forecast area except it has changed to snow during the night outside of I-495 to the north of I-90 in many areas. This changeover will progress slowly southeastward at first, then pick up momentum in an irregular fashion, responsive to precipitation intensity as well as trending southeastward as we go through the day. The following is an update of the system break-down as far as it impact this area…

Precipitation: Early this morning snow southwestern NH and north central MA, rain elsewhere. The rapid deepening of the low center will initiate dynamic cooling, most rapidly where precipitation is heaviest but general northwest to southeast trend as well, perhaps without a clear-cut rain/snow line. The last places to see this changeover take place should be the South Coast and Cape Cod as well as the Islands. Unless an area is under a heavy snow band, some of the snowfall will have a difficult time accumulating, especially the closer to the coast you are, during the daylight hours. As darkness falls, accumulation becomes easier and the majority of the accumulation especially for eastern areas will take place this evening. There may be a brief flip back to rain for parts of Cape Cod and even a brief cut-off of precipitation as the low center makes its closest pass and a dry slot briefly moves over that region. Snow tapers to snow/rain showers west to east Wednesday morning before coming to an end.

Snowfall totals for the event: Slushy coating to 2 inches Cape Cod / Islands as well as the immediate South Coast westward through immediate coastal RI and CT, 2-4 inches interior southeastern CT through south central RI to just inland from the MA South Coast up through the MA South Shore, as well as the tip of Cape Ann MA, 4-8 inches northeastern CT and northern RI through the I-90 and I-95 belt including Providence to Boston’s Metro West including the city of Boston (except 2-4 inches Logan Airport) and up to the immediate NH Seacoast, 8-12 inches central MA and interior southern NH lower elevations eastward to the I-495 region north of I-90, and 12-16 inches in the higher terrain of central MA and interior southern NH. Caveats for snowfall remain the same but with a less likely dry slot into eastern areas (except Cape Cod). There is still a slight chance of higher snowfall in the 2-4 inch zone with any heavier snow banding. Basically this would just mean the 4-8 inch area would be nudged slightly to the east and southeast.

Wind: East to northeast early morning, northeast to north late morning through afternoon, north to northwest tonight into Wednesday. Peak wind time will be during the evening to early nighttime hours from the north with peak gusts expected to be 35-45 MPH inland, strongest in higher elevations, and 45-55 MPH in coastal areas with occasional gusts above 55 MPH possible. This will occur as the low center makes its closest pass to the MA eastern coast on the southbound swing of its loop. By later tonight and Wednesday, gusts will be more in the 20-30 MPH range, still strongest near the coast and over some of the higher elevations of central MA and southern NH as the air mass becomes mixed by some solar heating.

Power outage potential: With temperatures not far from freezing, and in some cases slightly above freezing where it snows, snow load can become a problem for trees and power lines, and combined with strong, gusty winds, this will likely lead to scattered power outages, especially where snow load / wind gust combo is maximized. The 2 most vulnerable areas for higher clusters of outages will be heaviest snow areas of north central MA and southern NH, as well as highest wind gust areas along the coastal plain.

Coastal flooding threat: Fortunately, this aspect of the storm will be limited due to astronomically low tides and strongest winds more from the north than directly onshore over a larger portion of the coastline. However, northeast-facing and north-facing shores most vulnerable will likely see minor to moderate flooding during high tide times Tuesday to early Wednesday.

Commute impacts: Wet roads in most major areas for this morning but watch for ponding due to heavy rainfall. Exception will be slushy and snow covered roads where it has been snowing already in southwestern NH to north central MA higher elevations. This evening’s commute will be the most impacted by snow, most extensively away from the shores with more of a tendency for slushy or just wet roads right along the coastline unless snowing heavily at any given time. Just wet roads expected for the Wednesday morning commute and no issues for the evening one.

Post storm improvement Wednesday night and Thursday as high pressure builds in. No changes to the outlook beyond that for late week with a warm front moving through on Friday with more clouds, milder air, and maybe a touch of rain but mainly dry, then a cold front moving into the region Saturday, with mild rain chances to start, but some chance that a second wave of low pressure could meet colder air and produce some mix to snow behind that (lower confidence on that part and will monitor during the week).

TODAY: Overcast. Snow well inland and higher elevations. Rain changing to snow elsewhere. Snow will become heavy at times. Temperatures fall slightly to 30-37. Wind NE-N 15-25 MPH inland and 25-35 MPH coast, with gusts above 30 MPH inland and above 50 MPH coast.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow tapers off gradually but still can be heavy at times in the evening. See above discussion for total accumulation expectations. Lows 28-35. Wind N 15-35 MPH, higher gusts especially in coastal areas.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with snow and rain showers likely, becoming more isolated with time. Highs 35-42. Wind N-NW 15-30 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy early, then clearing. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 41-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 26-33. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of brief light rain especially north and west of Boston. Highs 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers likely morning. Chance of rain/mix/snow afternoon. Temperatures fall 40s to 30s. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 19-23)

March 19 looks dry, breezy, and chilly to end the final weekend of winter. Vernal Equinox occurs Monday March 20 and weather looks tranquil for that day and the first full day of spring March 21. Unsettled weather may arrive with rain/mix/snow potential for late in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 24-28)

One or two low pressure systems can impact the region with unsettled weather with an active late March pattern. Temperatures mostly below normal.

576 thoughts on “Tuesday March 14 2023 Forecast (7:13AM)”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Great job, as always !

    I’m worried about the immediate coast this evening for northerly winds as that low loops by. I have Dec 9th going through my head for the immediate north, south shore and Cape Cod.

  2. Thank you TK!!
    Had snow rain mix that changed to all rain around 11:00 last night and poured all night and picked up 1.25” of rain. I just switched to snow here 40 min ago and it’s coming down extremely heavily, just pounding snow, and picked up a quick 3/4” in that time.

    2. Thanks Dr.!

      Channel 5 is the low outlier here …
      All the others pretty much on the same page along with myself and the NWS (a few minor differences).

  10. Thank you Tom for your Great analysis and links to images. Look at the explosive development just south of RI moving in a northwest direction, just a fire hose of moisture coming off of the ocean.

  11. Thanks TK
    Coating so far on the grass roads slushy. Go north from where I am several inches of snow already and more to come.

  12. Thanks, TK!
    Great job as always!!!

    We’re in for a full day of classes, but no extras after school.

    Heavy rain and street flooding on the way in.

    1.11″ in the bucket at my home at 5:50, but greater than that now, I am sure.

    Happy Pi Day!

  15. Incredible snow here in the alps. Epic powder on piste and off. Just mind blowing.

    Hope the changeover happens soon. I feel a way over performing event.

  16. 1.80” of RAIN so far here in Sharon. I haven’t seen a QPF forecast in a while but IIRC, most were between 2-3” total for the event. A few more hours of rain and there won’t be much left to work with when it does flip to snow. Really counting on the low % wraparound to deliver

    1. Same here. While I didn’t think we would changeover this early, I was hoping at least signs would be there for an earlier than expected changeover

  19. Outstanding discussion TK. Thank you. Watching from a far today but everyone’s comments are so helpful in expressing what the real-time conditions are. Hoping everyone stays safe today and power stays on.

  20. Thanks as always TK!

    It will be interesting if Boston/Logan sees more rain than snow (inches) or vice versa.

  21. snow consistency has changed here in the last half hour. higher ratio now. No idea what it is but it’s not as wet as last night.

    2. Thanks for the real time updates! Living this one vicariously through you. I might need to sneak in a day to Wachusett before the week is over.

    3. And thats whats going to collapse the snow area quickly to the coast. Its getting very chilly just above,.

      1. Indeed. I was waiting for that. I want this process to speed
        up while there is still enough QPF in the tank. 🙂

  22. Ave, I may have exaggerated a touch with the QPF
    Here is the EURO total from 8PM last night.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2023031400&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    GFS from 8PM

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2023031400&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    NAM from 8PM

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2023031400&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    General consensus is “about” 3 inches or a tad more. 🙂

      1. Ooof again! I’m worried about losing time on QPF. The wraparound stuff later will be more localized than a solid shield of snow. If ur under a band, great! If not, then it’s game over

  24. Morning : sticking to my gut non plowable event in pembroke & there is absolutely no wind as of now.If I’m wrong I’m wrong.

    1. Good morning.

      I’m being picky, I know, but it could be non-plowable and one could have 3-5 on the grass and the trees 🙂 🙂 🙂

      2. I could be wrong tom . You are doing an incredible job on this & going by true facts that you see , I am going by a very strong hunch here that I can’t shake . Was the wind to be here by now as it’s calm as anything at my house

  25. One thing that “may” help with the sun angle issue and that
    is a very thick cloud cover. It is REALLY Dark out there!!!

  27. Thanks, TK.

    No sign of changeover in Boston yet. In fact, temps have gone up. It’s 41.2F. The air smells mild and marine-like. I know snow is in the forecast at some point today for Boston, but I’m still definitely not buying it for the immediate coast line. Will it change over? Well, yes, at some point. Will it accumulate? Well, no, at least not much. My call is for less than 2 inches of slop in Back Bay, all of which will be gone by tomorrow at noon.

    1. That Marine layer is stubborn. Doesn’t help that the ocean
      is “about” 5 degrees above average for this time of year
      and of course, NOT having an antecedent cold air mass.

      SO, even IF cold above, that is quite a thick layer of warmer
      air to overcome. We need the winds to back some more,
      to bring down
      Slightly cooler surface air from the North and help get
      rid of that warm marine layer.

    2. Eventually it’s to turn over but not until l this afternoon, I’m mostly in your camp

  29. Thanks TK. Just went out to shake the snow off some of the trees around my house. Have at least a foot. Was tracking the radar during the night and it was heavy rain all night the next town over. Not here!

  30. Somewhat surprised to see Boston upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning given the uncertainty plus the rain/snow line creeping if not crawling southeastward. My bet it’s going to be well after lunchtime before it finally arrives. I’ll say no later than 2:00 pm.

    What is the official criteria of posting a WSW vs. a WWA? Is it amounts and/or snowfall rates?

    1. Usually amounts over a period of time. I think it’s 6” in a 12hr period or 8” in a 24 hours.

        1. Thanks. Based on that criteria I doubt Boston will get anywhere near those amounts unless it REALLY overachieves.

  31. I keep checking that rain/snow line on 2 different radars
    AND it is NOT NOT NOT budging an inch let alone a mile or 2.
    It is simply NOT NOT NOT Moving at all!!!

    I’d like to at least see some progress, even if it is not
    to the coast. Some glimmer of hope. Something.
    This is torture!!!!

    1. Torture may be a bit of a stretch, but for those of us who like snow and live in mostly snowless Boston this season it’s been a bit painful. Several interesting teases this winter, but for all intents and purposes we’ve been denied actual snow. I think that may happen this time, too. The temperature here is 40.8F (it’s come down 0.4F in 3 hours!). The air smells like an April or May rain – that’s the marine layer – and, as you said, the rain/snow line isn’t moving. I suspect it will move at some point. But, I’m not counting on it. As Scott77 said – and TK predicted – there will be major differences between towns, with a rain/snow line that isn’t clear-cut. However, that applies well to our (north)west. No matter what, we’re experiencing a lot of precipitation; basically a month’s worth in 30 hours or so.

  32. With heavier bands starting to mix here. Temp says 39. Only with heavy bands of rain nothing consistent.

  34. If you are in the area with more than a foot of snow, stay home. Things are a mess with trees and wires down all over the place.

    3. I’m in Andover as well. Its taking its time fully changing over! I’m on the North Reading side, though.

  38. We have somewhere between 5-6″ of cementy snow in my yard here in Holden. All the trees and bushes are plastered with branches hanging super low. A dogwood tree in my backyard split down the middle. I just got in from knocking snow off as many plants as I could… It’s pretty out there, but I’m ready for spring!

    (And hi to TK and Vicki—just saw your kind comments on yesterday’s post!)

    2. Dog Woods are particularly vulnerable in these type situations.
      We lost one years ago and we loved that tree.

      So sorry.

  39. Well thank you to those above who have posted some
    observations.

    Sounds like the changeover is FINALLY on the move. 🙂

    1. Hi Captain.

      No.

      I’m thinking the superintendents wanted to get a full day in today for concern over losing tomorrow and beyond to possible power outages.

    1. Wow! Thank you. Can readily see your poor dog wood.
      I am not a tree expert, but this happened to our dogwood
      more than once. The first time I saved it by taking the split
      and taping it together. Over time the wood healed and bonded.
      It lasted about 5 years until the next heavy wet snow event
      totally destroyed it. Best of luck

  43. Just got a report from a colleague in Dudley, MA who reports
    that it just changed over to snow about 10 minutes ago.

    Vicki you should be next!!

  44. Snowing at a light clip where I am. Big snow amounts just north of me. Oh well GFS Euro showing something in the March 22-23 period

  45. Thank you, TK. Great discussions so far and there will be more for sure as the day goes on. Still raining in Sudbury.

    Not to take away on talking about the storm – quickly – anyone feel any shaking around 7 p.m. last evening? We felt a brief rumble with shaking. And it wasn’t any truck. My friend in Watertown felt it too. Any reports of an earthquake?

  46. Dave my friend jus told me that the ground in Sutton center is covered and the change was only 30 minutes ago. .

    Scott…to your point earlier, we are still rain in SE Sutton

    1. Where it is snowing, the temp is 35. Where it is trying to change (here), it is 39. Thank you to TK for posting multiple times about dynamic cooking. If we learn any lessons from this, I’d say that would be at the very top.

  47. Berkshires Worcester hills Northwest CT look to take it on the chin with this one from the pictures on twitter and the comments here

    1. My SIL said some areas have 20” out that way so far. I’m not sure of the source so please don’t quote me. It is the epic area Mark spoke of

  48. I don’t think there is a better place to be to keep up-to-date with current storm conditions. This blog is simply irreplaceable!!!

    THANK YOU once again TK!

    2. I sure do agree. I adore our Mets as everyone knows and value their information. But for going on 13 years this has been where I go to know what is happening and to learn why it is happening.

  49. Still raining in Swampscott and it has rained heavily at times. Still thinking 1 PM for the changeover though things look like they are speeding up.

    Some of the TV met snow maps versus the words they use seem confusing if not contradictory. If you look at DS’s link at 7:27 AM and look at the WBZ map, it says Snow Accumulation. I would be in the 2-4″ area so let’s call it 3″. It would take a hell of a snowfall for me to accumulate 3″ at this point. The ground is warm, soaking wet and temps are not low. Can’t see how it will accumulate that much at all. I would need super-bands to come along … maybe they will.

    1. 12Z NAM has 1+ inch Kuchera by 2PM. So it looks like the NAM thinks Changeover in your area, including Boston is somwhere
      in the Noon to 1PM time frame. Still hoping for earlier, but
      Doesn’t look like it now. The RAP was advertising about 11AM.
      We shall see.

    2. At the same time, the ground is warm and wet here and in north Sutton two inches accumulated in a very short time. Although it doesn’t have influence from the ocean.

  50. Now the snow starting to pick up as my area tries to play catch up. Out Marks way looks like a dry slot.

  51. Vicki, thanks for sharing the temp and snow/rain differences within the town of Sutton. Amazing to see. By the way, you mentioned “dynamic cooling,” but instead of an “l” you inadvertently used a “k” – “dynamic cooking” – and it made me laugh.

  52. The same friend in Sutton center just said her brother only two miles north on the road she lives on (toward Millbury) had two inches at his house when it was still raining at hers. I need to repeat, this is a two mile difference.

    Absolutely fascinating.

  53. 12Z 3KM NAM has the changeover “just” about to Boston
    at 1PM. I have noticed that in these situations, the changeover
    often occurs AHEAD of what the models depict. Here’s hoping.
    🙂

  55. In the 3 hours from 18Z to 21Z the NAM only accumulates
    1 inch Kuchera! Talk about wet cement.

    And from 21Z to 0Z ONLY another inch.

    That is 1/3 inch per hour in rather heavy snow. WOW!

  56. Silver Lake schools announced last night that today would be an early dismissal. I was a bit surprised considering we were the only school to not have a delayed opening during the last event.

    1. Smart. Sutton cancelled and I was wondering if an early dismissal would work. Although I never second guess a decision for school. Turns out my wondering was wrong if they are already accumulating in parts of Sutton. Tons of hills and narrow roads out here.

  58. Christie, I’m sorry to hear about the dogwood. It’s such a pretty tree in May.

    And for those of you negatively impacted by the cement-like snow, I hope that the damage is minimal.

    1. Oh dear. I had missed that from Christie. I echo the hope that damage is minimal enough to save the tree.

    1. I’m trying to do my work and I can’t concentrate as I keep
      checking this blog, the radar and the models. 🙂

  62. I “think” snowflakes are now occasionally mixing in here at work. Not far from Longwood Medical Area.

  63. Are any WHW teachers off today or is everyone at their respective schools? 🙂

    Looking at the list of schools and colleges, some are dismissing at noon, snow day or remote learning. All over the place.

  64. It has started to mix here now (Lexington/Arlington line).

    Still not looking forward to my mid-afternoon commute, let alone the evening return trip.

  67. Natick still rain but looks like snow is on the doorstep. Have a bit of the anti view as I am hoping for limited snow and getting on with Spring. We must have had roughly 2 inches of rain and I am rooting for delayed switchover as we burn through both QPF and time.

  68. Unfortunately the temperature where I am – Boston’s Back Bay – went up again. It is now 41.1F.

    2. Doesn’t matter. The cold air is coming from overhead in a while.

      This doesn’t change anything.

      1. Exactly. We posted at about the same time. Temps here are a perfect example of what you have said many times

  69. Now it is coming down where I am. The short range models showing 4-5 inches of more snow for my area. If it wasn’t hours of rain what might have been.

  73. Hi Philip!

    Full day of school for us here today in Middleborough There are no more students absent today than usual. A lot of tardies.

    No extra curriuculars after school. Staff can leave once the students are out of the building.

    No word on tomorrow yet.

  74. Over 2″ already here at the StormHQ World Headquarters Compound. That’s rain, not snow. And TK is right, thus far, the storm is behaving EXACTLY as it was forecast to.

    The ground is not that warm. Soil temperatures are still in the 30s, near 40 south of Boston. Pavement temperatures are in the lower 30s north and west of I-95, upper 30s to lower 40s around Boston and south, and will drop as the temperature drops and the sun sets. Despite all the rain, it will not take long for the snow to start accumulating on grass. Pavements will take a little longer, unless the snow starts coming down heavily.

    3. Wow! I’m on the other side of Holden and we’re closing in on a foot. Sorry to hear about your trees!

  82. Still 36 and heavy snow still. Barely any accumulation on my non-frozen lawn. Perfect example of what you measure may well be less than you got

  87. temp down to 39 here now. I good sign, I hope.

    It brightened up considerably here. Not sure what that means, if anything. 🙂

  90. 2.50” of rain now. Dry slot is increasing in coverage to our south. Brightening up and rain intensity decreasing.

    3. Nice! Gotta keep that precip intensity up. It’s lightened up considerably south of the city which isn’t a good sign unless things start pinwheeling back SE

    1. This is when Southeastern MA gets most of their snow. And unfortunately for them it comes after sundown so the roads will end up a little bit more impacted than they would have otherwise.

  97. Once the snow manages to create a thin layer on the ground, accumulation started here. It is absolutely a beautiful scene looking out the window

    1. But it was expected.
      This is how this was going to go.
      No waste. 🙂

      It’s also better because avoiding borderline catastrophic damage that 20+ inches of snow would cause.

  101. If that 2.1 was all snow 21 inches of snow and probably end up being the biggest March snowstorm in Boston history.

  103. Snowing at a good clip..once it started it didn’t take long to whiten up the grass and deck….now, about 45 minutes into it the roads are getting covered

  104. This proves if the snow comes down hard enough during the daylight hours in March it can accumulate on the pavement.

    1. It is awfully bright here. and it’s not raining all that hard which is certainly impeding the changeover!

  106. It’s 33 degrees here and everything is snow-covered. I agree with Vicki. It is pretty outside. Opened the kitchen shades to watch the snow.

  108. Its interesting, most of the immediate south coast has southwest winds.

    I’m guessing representative of that elongated low pressure the models were showing.

  109. Looking at sfc obs, the winds off the Maine Coast, the Isle of Shoals and Gloucester are quite strong.

  111. I just tuned in to Mark Rosenthal’s “Weatherblast” update and his snowfall map has 10 inches for Boston with 2-4 inches for the Cape.

    He’s going to be in for quite a shock when Boston won’t get anywhere near 5” let alone 10”. 🙁

    1. Are you so sure about that? 😉
      That tells me you definitely don’t buy my forecast either…..

      Also, Mark isn’t forecasting for a slab of asphalt several miles outside the city. 🙂

      By the way, Mark reads here. Hi Mark!

      2. If you ever talk to mark, tell him to stop ticking that box on his youtube channel uploads that says “made for kids” because it restricts the videos and disables comments.

  113. The winds are not strong yet but later on when those winds pick up with the areas with all that heavy wet snow will only exacerbate the power outage situation.

  120. It goes to ALL snow and then goes back to 50-50 and then back to all snow. All part of the process, I guess. Should STAY
    all snow soon. 🙂

  124. Lightened up here. Just sent 17″ report into NWS.

    Lots of damage out there. Trees, limbs and wires

  125. IF there were reasonable intensity, it would stay ALL snow, but it isn’t all that intense. FWIW, when it does finally go over,
    it’s NOT going to be heavy snow as it will be solid light to occasionally Moderate. UNLESS something changes in a hurry!

    1. Well since I’ve been saying for a few days now that most of your snow occurs this evening I think we should probably let the event occur before we verify it. 😉

  127. Complete DUD of a storm here in NC/NE CT as the models were all indicating last night.

    We received 2″ of rain overnight and then have been promptly dry slotted all morning by this double barrel low setup. If anything the dry slot is expanding in coverage as the precip becomes more fragmented out this way.

    Will be lucky to see an inch of snow at this point, which is pretty much what the short range models are showing now out this way.

    Drizzling lightly now here and 38F.

    1. Meanwhile, not far away in NW Hartford County, 12″ of snow in Granby and Simsbury CT and even 4″ now at BDL in W Locks!

      1. Yes I would expect another update soon and wouldnt be surprised to see some totals approaching 30″

  130. Mark tough break with that dry slot. Did they call a remote learning day in Coventry today?

    1. Yes, and of course it was completely not necessary. Their reason was because the NWS “recently” upgraded Tolland and Windham Counties to a Winter Storm Warning. Needless to say a big bust for the NWS out this way….6-12″ aint happening. Centimeters perhaps?

  132. All snow in Swampscott. Very steady but alternating between light and moderate now. No accumulation.

  135. Ugh. Much brighter here. Spitting snow. No accumulation and temp at 39….but still spitting snow

  136. Barely snowing here now. In fact, sky is brightening. Looks like sun wants to come out! I know it won’t.

    When is it supposed to get windy?

    1. Later.

      My most popular question today. Mostly off the blog.

      Answered it 11 times so far. 🙂

  138. That was fun while it lasted, in the giant dry slot and I don’t think we’ll get into that backlash out here. The fortunate thing out here is the snow has been mostly blown off and is melting off the trees so even if the winds do increase this afternoon I should be ok in my area, that is unless we do get into one of those heavy backlash death bands and it really piles up quickly again like this morning.

      1. TK I’m in Sturbridge, and I’m at 710’ elevation, we had about 3 1/2”” before it stopped and now some of that has melted.

  139. Just curious, is that a dry slot opening up on radar over Worcester. I’m not sure what they are, how long they last etc. In general, snow has also slowed in Natick and seems to be brighter.

  140. Just flipped to mostly snow in Sharon. Big fat flakes. Temp dropped to 35. Right on schedule.

    1. Love the town of Wilmington. I learned to ski at Haystack (then part of Mt. Snow). That town was hit hard by Irene.

      1. I skied at Haystack a few times when I was in college as well.
        Did you know Haystack is still operating now but as a privately owned mountain? They have a gorgeous base lodge, their own 6 person detachable lift, and many high end condos around the base area. Big money to buy a place and get a membership there.

        1. Holy crap, I had no idea! Up and down history since the early 2000’s apparently. We rented a place in the Spyglass condos on the Haystack golf course.

  142. Flakes of snow finally coming down here in Coventry CT. Temp finally dropping a bit as well. Now 36F

  143. For those who missed out on this one…

    GFS/CMC/Euro all showing a major coastal threat next Wednesday 3/22.

          1. You can have it! I’m going to need a front loader to come in to move the pile at the end of my driveway. It is long and my plow guy said he’s never seen it this bad here in the 20 years he’s been plowing in terms of weight.

  148. Wind is finally picking up here and the snow is picking up as well.
    Beginning to look a bit wild out there. Not there yet, but
    beginning. Still 36

  149. I was just sitting here looking at the “snizzle” and thinking about Shelby Scott with her red and blue hat standing out in the worst of it. Dating myself to be sure.

  150. Looking at obs, Falmouth and Block Island, who have W and SW winds …… the temps are dropping slowly, along with the dps.

    So, even from the south, with the system wrapping up, its cooling from all directions.

    Thus, when precip resumes SE of Boston, it shouldn’t be long to change to wet snow there also.

  151. Incredible snow rates here, they were bombing the mountains and you could hear it to clear the area of avalanches. Simply incredible.

    What’s everyone’s best guess for JP?

    1. 0-12 inches!

      I’d say lucky if it is 5 or 6 inches, although there is enough uncertainty even at this hour, so it “could” be more OR it could be less. 🙂 Just my 2 cents.

  152. One minute it almost looks like a blizzard and the next it’s
    barely snowing at all. If it’s going to let loose, then let loose
    already. Enough of this tease show.

  154. Nothing is happening here. Well, maybe some snizzle mix. It’s fairly bright outside, suggesting a thin cloud cover. Temp is down, but not by a lot. It’s 35.6F right now.

      1. I don’t know if it means more snow, but it should allow for all that heavy stuff off the coast of Maine pivot back down into eastern Mass this evening.

        TK said this earlier, because it will be near and after sunset, we might maximize accumulation, instead of losing it to daytime radiation.

  156. Still snowing in Amesbury, but wind and snow a little less intense that I expected. Nice storm though.

  157. Pats let their best receiver go. And Meyers’ asking price wasn’t exactly the moon. It was a relatively affordable price for a very dependable receiver. I cannot figure out what’s going on in Foxboro.

  158. Wind is picking up here now under a bright sky w/very light snow falling. This is a strange storm, indeed. Next thing you know you we will have Sage falling from the sky. Ha Ha. Laughing at my own joke. We may get more snow and higher winds later but to me this storm was not a snowstorm I hoped it would be.

  159. Eastern Mass ……….

    hang in there. Best snow yet to come.

    And it probably arrives just before or during sunset until a few hours after maximizing accumulation.

    Its ok to have a lull now. Its only 1.5 hrs after highest sun angle. 🙂

    1. Thanks, Tom and for that info. regarding sun angle.. It is getting windier here. Just don’t want the lights to go out.

    2. Tom if it flips it’s not like it’s going all night & the longer it Takes the less chance of it making an impact in my opinion

  161. Very light mix of rain/snow here in Hingham. ‘Tis bright outside. Wind is very loud at times.

    1. Marshfield cancelled all after activities.

      No dept mtgs today 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

      Of course, that means they are next Tuesday.

  164. Only been saying for 4 days now that the majority of the accumulation for Eastern MA would take place this evening.

    😉

  165. I am 106 mi away from a really cool odometer/trip odometer combination in my car. I will post a photo here when it happens.

  166. I know this is a long duration event but wondering when and how much snow will revisit Natick. Came down like crazy for a while and then shut off. Allowed good bit of melting, especially in the trees. Thanks.

    1. Still haven’t made any changes since Saturday… Most of your accumulation happens this evening.

  167. 12z EURO with a 983 low pressure system going through the Hudson River Valley of NY. Time for that track to change.

  169. I still want to hear from all the people who declared winter over in January…

    Still can’t wrap my head around that one.

  171. I’m going to be on the road and outside for a little while…

    When I get in I will have a look at the short range guidance to kind of get the best handle I can on what is left of this system before I really go looking much ahead. So I won’t really be talking much about future threats until later this evening or tomorrow’s blog update.

    So far things are mostly on track.

    Wind has really starting to pick up here in my area with light snow falling and we have close to 2 in so far.

  172. Alternating between light and moderate snow now here in Coventry CT. Struggling to accumulate so far.

  177. It’s done absolutely NOTHING here for well over an hour!
    ZILCH NADA NOTHING.
    AND NOTHING on radar anywhere nearby.

      2. Mention # 7 .. 8? I’ve lost count.

        Most of the measurable snow for Boston and the South Shore falls THIS EVENING. Not today. THIS EVENING.

  181. So far, I’m not impressed. I think we are banking on this wrap around snow to occur in eastern sections in the tune of a few to several inches. However, a bust in some locations east of 495 would not shock me. Rarely, do we ever see decent snows on the back end of a storm and history often repeats itself. When in doubt, follow patterns.

    1. So far, other than a little more dry slot at the South Coast, this storm has behaved exactly as forecast.

      I’ve noticed there is a big disconnect lately regarding winter storms between what is forecast and what people perceive. I’m not sure how to explain that.

      These are not busted forecasts.

      There are always areas that are a little different than the consensus forecast may have indicated. That’s just the nature of it.

      THAT SAID, and this will be the 3rd time I say this today, we should let an event happen before we verify it. 😉 (6th time I’ve said it today if you count the entire net…)

      1. I’m seeing that from folks I just don’t expect to be doing what you describe. Sadly, it is often the naysayers’ comments that are remembered. And even sadder, they are remembered and reflect on the meteorologists……negatively and unfairly. and I’m seeing this in a few in places that truly shock me. Truly.

        If a forecast doesn’t turn out, well then it doesn’t. But please let’s wait until the system has departed. And for heaven sakes remember …..as we certainly all should here……that our Mets ….on this blog and in the media…put their heart and soul into their forecasts.

        There is such a beautiful side to a snow storm. And then there is a truly sad side. TK….I have said a number of times as have others…but it cannot be said enough. THANK YOU.

      2. Ha! I haven’t exactly declared it a bust. I only said that it wouldn’t shock me if some eastern sections busted 🙂

  182. REMINDER: Total snowfall INCLUDES snow that fell and was measured, then melted. You do not get to exclude that.

    1. Thank you. I commented earlier that I wish there were a way to measure that. We have had a good amount fall here but nothing accumulate

  183. Snow just picked up significantly here at Woburn. Total so far, 1.8 inches. Will get into the 4-8 inch range no problem.

  185. Rain has for the most part stopped in pembroke . Thought there was a very slight uptick in the wind but that’s a negative , also very , very bright .

    1. That would be the sun shining through thinner spots in a mid level dry slot.

      What’s going on in your area right now is no surprise, btw.

      Most of your wind and snow comes this evening……… I think I heard somebody mention that earlier…..

      1. Yes sir it was you and I’m still going with what I think . This will not be a big deal here . I agree with Arod too much stock going into the wrap around .

  187. Some of my favorite quotes today from people I’ve encountered and my replies (where applicable).

    Person #1: “Hey, where’s all the snow?!”
    Me: “What part of Tuesday afternoon and evening didn’t you understand?”

    Person #2: “The roads were just wet driving in this morning. I was expecting really slippery conditions!”
    Me: “The roads were wet because it was raining, just like it was forecast to be this morning.”

    Person #3: “Hey, where are the 8 inches of snow you told me we were going to get?!”
    Me: Well, first, I forecast FOUR to EIGHT inches of snow for you. If you receive anywhere from 4 to 8 inches, then the forecast I gave you for snowfall will be correct. If you receive less than 4, then I forecast too much. If you receive more than 8, then I forecast too little. But as it stands now, I expect 4-8 inches for you, but you actually have to let the snow fall first before you find out how much it is. That’s how it works.”

    Person #4: “They changed the forecast about 5 times yesterday! They never know what it’s going to do!”
    Me: “I told you to stick with reliable sources for forecasts, not kids that set up Facebook pages and try to reword someone else’s forecast or just find the model with the biggest snow total and go crazy with that. Any actual meteorologist is going to make the best forecast they can make, and update it when it needs to be updated. I actually haven’t changed my forecast in 4 days. Admittedly, that’s rare for me to be able to do, and right or wrong, you’re still going to get an honest forecast there and from all of our area professionals. Pay attention to them.” 🙂
    Person #4 (second question): “Ok, so where’s all the snow?”
    Me: “www.woodshill.net” (said with a smile)

    There are 2 or 3 others, but you get the idea.

    I have a headache. Pass the Tylenol please. 😉

    1. And if you told them winds will gust 45-55 MPH, they would say winds will be blowing at 45-55 MPH all night.

    2. i understand the snow this evening, but in all honesty, once the rain flipped to snow, I did not expect it to stop. We weren’t
      supposed to be dry slotted, but I guess we were. 🙂

      Radar to the East it pretty much devoid of echos.

      I keep waiting for something to appear out there that
      can rotate in here.

      Do we have to wait for that stuff up by Portland Maine
      to pivot on down here?

      Curious and thanks

  188. I’m glad Westwood is still expected to receive 4-8 inches and I’m happy to count the snow that has already fallen because, thus far, virtually zilch has reached the ground aside from a few flakes. I’m hoping that will change. If we do fall into the 4-8 range, it’ll be quite the show tonight.

  189. Starting up here again. Trees are a disaster. I’m thinking I lost the tops to 6-8 large trees not to mention the countless large limbs. Have to go all the way back to the 2007 ice storm to come anywhere close.

    1. Yet there are people calling the storm a “bust” out there all over the net.

      They don’t get it. They always think the worst of everything has to be right at their exact location. How can it even be that somebody can think that makes sense?

      So a couple areas were dry slotted for a while. Some areas are just changing to snow now (yeah, the ones expected to change last). BIG DEAL. hahaha!

    2. Same here, retrac. Holden has been hit hard by this storm. The cleanup is not going to be fun.

  190. Tk I think your a phenomenal forecaster & love this blog & love it that we can 99% of the time post our thoughts here without an attitude. I for one am holding my ground & that’s just strong / gut feeling & I’ve acknowledged that . For example I don’t think it’s going to be a rough night down here at all ( the wind maybe if it comes ) but I’m just not buying into it . Now that’s not saying Tk is wrong I don’t believe him or professor Tom is wrong my strong thinking is no way . I actually hope it does workout so I can post a picture here with egg on my face lol . Who knows , I just am not feeling it . You need a break after this storm . I appreciate what you do here as well as all of the other experienced folks here

  191. Top 3 snow reports so far for Massachusetts…

    #3: 26.5 inches at Chesterfield.
    #2: 27.3 inches at Ashby.
    #1: 32.0 inches at Rowe.

  192. Currently in Woburn: Wind-driven snow, borderline moderate (I’d call it light at the moment based on visibility). Temp 34. This snow is of a slightly drier consistency than the first 1.8 inch was.

  193. So how close is the center of the low to Dartmouth? Woke up this morning to a marine smell and humid breeze. Winds have gone from NE to SW to NW but never have been bad – rain was heavy then lite – feels like we are by the “eye”
    Of storm. Even brightening up a bit here now. Temp was 43 now down to 39.

    1. The low center was far to your southeast at the time. You were on the northern edge of a trough bridging that low and a very weak low to your west southwest.

      The guidance had this pretty well-forecast. Some of the dry slot got a little further onto the South Coast than expected but that happens.

    1. Agree, TK. But, what you see on this map is consistent with the idea that at the coast, or within a mile or 2 of the coast, little or nothing will accumulate. There’s been zilch so far in Back Bay. We’ll probably add a trace/coating. But I do think that’s it.

      1. The majority of the accumulation for these areas will be this evening. You’ll get more than a coating in Back Bay tonight.

  195. Definitely not a bust. When you have 32 inches of water-laden snow in a town in Massachusetts. That means this was/is a big storm.

    However, I’m really not seeing anything in Boston. I realize full well that Boston could still get snow, and that towns fairly close to Boston have already had snow. But there’s been nothing here (just light snizzle mix for hours on end), and I can’t I see much on the horizon. Also, temps here have crept up again. They had dropped to 33.4F, but are now at 34.6F.

    1. Yes and the NWS is saying the same thing. However, just a few miles inland, they anticipate 3-6 inches of snow this evening.

      1. Totally agree. A friend of mine in Arlington could very well get 5 inches while I wind up with 0.6 inch.

    2. I’d say less than that. But, yes, an inch is possible. And, perhaps more in the hinterlands of Boston, places like JP and Roslindale. But here in Back Bay there will be no plowing needed. It’s been that kind of winter for Boston.

      Sure, this storm is different in many ways from previous events. But the bottom line is Boston will be denied once more. I do think a lot of it has to do with temperature profiles: At the surface, in the water, and the urban island effect. This occurs every winter, but has been more pronounced this winter because every event – including this one – has been marginal at best in terms of temperatures conducive to accumulating snow at the coast.

      1. You might be saying otherwise if you were looking at the rapid refresh short range guidance. 😉

  197. Weather’s a process.

    The 500 mb feature is getting closer to the sfc low.

    Let things evolve in eastern Mass.

    It only 5pm.

    Probably a very different radar from 7-10pm.

  198. I mean, if you look at the 0hr radar on the most recent HRRR run, the radar looks now like it projects it to be.

    In a few hrs, it projects quite a western wrap around band. Let’s see if that happens 🙂

    1. That wrap-around band has the potential to surprise some folks, especially anyone who’s out driving or walking………….

        1. And that isn’t coming through Metro Boston until between 10 and midnight……………….. at about 10:1 ratio, maybe just under.

  199. While we don’t have snow there’s been a lot of water, and we now have large puddles forming in the boiler room. Not good. Water hasn’t quite reached my window sills but it’s close.

  203. Some areas that have been shut out of the snow so far will start to see it soon (the areas that are expecting it this evening / tonight). As low pressure starts to head back to the southwest and south via the Gulf of Maine in the next several hours we’ll start to set up a solid area of snow on its back side including 1 or 2 enhanced banding areas. If maximized, 1-2 inch per hour snowfall rates are possible with these over a couple hours’ time, and even thundersnow is not out of the question. This is when Boston and the South Shore will pick up most of its accumulation. Target time for the heaviest, 9PM through midnight from north to south. The western limit of the steadiest snow is pretty far west now, but the western limit of the final area should be more like mid Worcester County.

    1. We are accumulating here. I’d guess a comfortable 1-2…favoring closer to 2….has fallen during the day

        1. We have an instance several years ago here where we had several inches of very wet snow and after it was over all the crevices were blue-tinted. I think I have a photo somewhere. 🙂

    2. Omg no way. I had that today when plowing my driveway. I thought I has leaked hydraulic fluid or something. Thanks for this.

  205. RAP, HRRR, NAM 3km all forecast 3 to 7 inches of snow this evening for southeastern NH and most of eastern MA including Boston.

    Won’t have the daylight to limit it either.

    1. Radar is filling in nicely now and will continue to do so. The snow portion of this event is about to commence for many, especially Boston area south and southeast.

  207. Continuing to snow moderately here in Coventry, CT. Have had a few bursts of heavier snow as well. Everything is white and finally looks like winter again. Not really enough to measure yet…still under an inch. Down to 32-33F

      1. Thanks JJ. We’ll see. Worst comes to worst, we are flying out to Big Sky, Montana tomorrow and they are expecting up to a foot of snow tonight/tomorrow so I should see some fresh snow there!

  212. As TK accurately predicted, it looks like the show is about to begin. Light to moderate snow has redeveloped.

          1. Yeah basically exactly what was expected there. 🙂
            Not much during the day – your snow comes this evening.

            Same forecast I’ve had since Saturday.

      3. Wait until dark and the heavier bands arrive.

        And don’t judge your accumulation based on pavement. That’s not where we measure.

  213. Absolutely crushed in Southern VT.

    First photo is Londonderry VT now at 30″ of new snow (1200′ elevation):

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2023_03/IMG_20230314_115036_01.jpg.2134debb456dff48e31b7196be030bf8.jpg

    Second photo is West Dover VT (near Mt Snow). The deck railing in this photo is 42″ high and the deck was cleared prior to this storm:

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2023_03/image.jpeg.a594f56f470618e8465a0dcaf19b1e2b.jpeg

  214. Mount Snow officially reporting 3 FEET of new snow now as of lift closing time at 4PM and still pounding snow. They actually opened today but had to close numerous lifts due to excessive snow and wind.

    Berkshire East lost power early this morning and was unable to open today.

  218. Getting our first coating now on the grass and seeing some on cars. Nothing on hard surfacesas expected.

  219. 21z HRRR puts 2-4 inches of snow down on the North Shore, Boston, and South Shore later this evening.

    21z RAP is similar but axis is slightly to the west of that.

  222. Thanks everyone for the ongoing insights snd reports. We have had little wind throughout the day today in Lexington. I had understood that was expected to be significant. Did something change, was I mistaken, or is that still ahead tonight? Many thanks in advance for thoughts on that.

  223. Moderate snow continues in Coventry with about an inch accumulation now. Beginning to accumulate on the road as well.

      1. As I have stated on numerous occasions now, the peak wind gusts for that area will occur this evening / tonight.

      2. This is quoting my own blog from above: “Wind: East to northeast early morning, northeast to north late morning through afternoon, north to northwest tonight into Wednesday. Peak wind time will be during the evening to early nighttime hours from the north with peak gusts expected to be 35-45 MPH inland, strongest in higher elevations, and 45-55 MPH in coastal areas with occasional gusts above 55 MPH possible. This will occur as the low center makes its closest pass to the MA eastern coast on the southbound swing of its loop. By later tonight and Wednesday, gusts will be more in the 20-30 MPH range, still strongest near the coast.”

        Most of the information you need is contained in my discussion and forecast published every morning, and then I add updates and tidbits in the comments as I can.

            1. I might be a lot of things but I’m pretty truthful. Honestly I think weatherbug is decent

  226. Not seeing any pickup in snow intensity in Amesbury. Is this what we should expect for the rest of the night?

  227. Wardsboro, VT 42″ as of 5:45PM with a settled snowpack of 59″.

    Some discussion on the AmericanWx forum that this may be approaching the VT State record for most snow in a 24 hour period.

  229. Mitch
    @VermonsterWx

    6 pm update: 34.9” as of 5:30 pm. Internet and phone are both down at my house so I walked to a neighbor who can get 1 bar of cell to send out this tweet. I am fine, but shit is getting real up here with power and telecom issues.

  231. Took a ride up to where I work, which is probably 30-40 ft in elevation higher than ever I am at sea level.

    Noticeable difference.

    Not much sticking yet by the ocean.

    Up here at the school, it’s moderate snow and 33F. Things have coated up and there’s even a little in shaded areas on the pavement.

  232. So close yet so far if you are a snow lover in New Fairfield. I know the feeling as all I had to do was drive a little further north for bigger snow amounts.
    From Ryan Hanrahan
    Crazy snowfall gradient near the NY/CT border along I-84. 6″ in New Fairfield but 17.0″ in Lake Carmel, NY

  233. south central CT and eastern CT might get almost nothing. Meanwhile NE mass could see up to 8 maybe 10 inches of snow

    1. There’s actually a pretty solid band about to do a little adding to the snowfall area in southeastern MA.

      I am curious what that band just outside of the low center does when that thing goes by us after 10:00 p.m….

      1. yeah southeast mass could also get it rather good, main point was that parts of CT might see next to nothing out of this storm. My #s for central and eastern CT are going to be way to high.

        1. Steadiest bands midnight to 2AM. Snow showers can still be around overnight and snow/rain showers early AM.

  236. I am in the finale of this storm now as the snow coming down at a good clip. No problem no sticking to the pavement now that it is dark.

    1. You can clearly see the associated plume of moisture pin wheeling around the low southwestward into the MA coastline.

  238. I think it’ll snow until say 1-3 AM in Essex County. Maybe I’ll wake up to a little sun.

  241. Closing in on an inch. Snowing moderately. We are only one or two snow heavy bands away from falling into that 4-8 inch range.

  242. I know the focus is on the nor’easter out there, but thought I would check in from NorCal- power has been out since 11am my time, no current estimate for back on, winds on my local hiking hill hit 100mph, and ski places in Tahoe are closed due to too much snow (see link for the best picture I’ve seen although there are several impressive examples floating around)

    https://twitter.com/SnowBrains/status/1635638884565434374?s=20

    3. Oh wow Julie. And I’m glad you checked in. As you know I have family in three locations in CA and am very worried about them.

      Please stay safe and I hope your power is on again soon

  243. I walked across Boston Common around 7:30 with it sleeting in my face! 1/2 hour later, driving through NW suburbs, it was all snow.
    Home safe now, and I get to try again early tomorrow morning.

  247. My best friend from high school moved to Truckee after college and one April I flew out there to visit and he and I did some spring back country snowshoeing /climbing as he new the best routes, safe from the avalanches being a state forest ranger and a cal forestry firefighter, we hiked in late season snowpack at about 18 feet which was above average for that time of year. I thought that was crazy with the swift flowing Truckee river and other rivers at or above bank full. This most certainly blows this away by a long shot and can’t even fathom what you are going through and will go through in the next few weeks out there Julie. Best of luck to you and my thoughts and well wishes are with you.

    1. Thanks! I’m not in a spot that’s at much risk for flooding, but yes, should be an interesting spring! Here’s hoping for gradual melt

  249. Last 3-4 games, the B’s have forgotten what puck management means and their passing is awful. Down 1-0.

  250. Not seeing those increased rates (yet?). Looking at radar it should be snowing harder but just isn’t. Surface temps still marginal too even though sun has been down for a while now.

    1. Yeah, it slowed down in Westwood also. If numbers verify, it’ll likely be on the low end of the range.

    2. Thinking we aren’t going to experience any of those intense snow bands as depicted on some of the models. While an extremely impressive and dangerous storm in central and western New England, it looks as if it will not live up to expectations in our area. Bring on Spring 🙂

  253. I have to respectfully disagree.

    2-2.5+ inches of rain followed by more melted for some snow.

    20-30 inches in higher elevations.

    The meteorology of the storm has gone completely according to plan.

    Sure, the snow depth map is going to come closest to verifying in eastern areas.

    All in all, an impressive event that again, verified perfectly against what it was supposed to do meteorologically.

    First half: snow confined to higher elevations. Next 1/3 a transition to the coast and the last 1/3 there has been enough chill aloft to snow to sea level. Big picture: the models delivered.

    Finally, east of Worcester, we should wait til morning to see if another inch, 2 or spot 3 falls somewhere Worcester points east.

      2. I get it. A great forecast for a very difficult storm to nail down. You stuck to your guns. Wish a bit more on the coastal plain.

    3. I want to know if JPDave would agree as it relates to what was anticipated in eastern ma.
      As it pertains to what occurred from 495 north and west, I agree. Everything verified nicely.
      However, at least for my area, we’ve had an inch thus far and though there is still time, the window is closing for 4-8 to be realized. I just don’t see it even though I hope I’m wrong. The intensity just hasn’t been there and that comma head with intense snowfall rates closer to the coast doesn’t appear to be materializing.

  255. Tom go back to college and pursue your atmospheric science degree please. You would make a great meteorologist! It just clicks for you!!

    1. Tom is fantastic. Don’t know how he does it. I just don’t have the natural science brain for it. Even if I worked at it all day long, I wouldn’t be able to be a meteorologist.

  256. Good post, Tom. Agree wholeheartedly that this was a major storm. I’m envious of people in Ashby. Heck, I’m envious of folks in Woburn.

    Clearly, however, the snow part of the storm has failed to materialize yet in places like Boston. Maybe it will, but I’m not counting on it. There’s nothing at all on the ground. Not even on the grass. And the snow is very light and mixed with sleet and rain, with temps rising.

    By the way, I do not fault any forecaster for any of this. I think TK and the others did a great job. This wasn’t easy, especially with the lack of antecedent, current, and future cold air mass. I also think – and admittedly I am a total amateur – the models are not sufficiently accounting for the water temperature profile (anomalously warm for the time of year) and the ground, too (anomalously warm for the time of year). This isn’t the first time this has happened this winter. Other storms have essentially bypassed the coast and a few other areas in terms of snow, too. I think under normal conditions – for example, having had a relatively normal winter, which we didn’t – this storm would have produced accumulating snow in Boston.

  257. Well done by all of you. With over 500 posts just today I see passion runs deep as does your desire to pass along weather knowledge. I come here to learn and none of you have disappointed to date. TK many thanks, you inspire.

  258. Josh said it best. These storms are so difficult to nail down. Just because one might not agree whether a particular part of a forecast verifies, by no means is this a knock on any meteorologist. The Science is not always perfect. I’m still very impressed with what we can accurately predict even though I agree with Josh that the snow portion of the forecast in eastern mass is not likely to pan out. Again, I hope I’m wrong.

    1. I just went outside & it’s barely snowing here . It’s 34 here now & the projected temp at 1am is 36 . Dusting on the cars & grass not on pavement. We will see if the wind produces but down this way so far it was the rain that produced as it rained steadily most of the day . Setup needs to be spot on this time of year Boston / south . Other areas as forcasted did well.

    2. Awesome also. I might have a half inch but I know parts of Sutton were well within the predicted amount. I’d also conservatively say I had three with what fell, melted and fell but didn’t stick. So many lessons from this storm

    1. Let’s see how far inland we can get that to go. My fear is that it targets northeastern MA before skirting the coastline perhaps a few miles inland and then pinwheels out of here. This may be eastern sections’ last shot.

          1. It’s rotating around the low center, northeastern MA now, Metro Boston next, South Shore after that. Exits via Cape Cod.

            1. That’s how I see it as well. I’m afraid there won’t be any other bands quite as potent to follow. Such a bummer.

                1. Why because I had a strong felling that it was not going to produce here & as of now it was correct . I had it with the last storm as well & that went the same way . I felt strongly on the surface temp & it held as of now . Honestly if we got the snow I would not have cared as I’m out of work , so I’m not going anywhere. Now let’s see if the wind shows up , if it does it does . It’s been snowing since 7 with not much intensity & my driveway doesn’t even have snow on it , light coatings on grass & cars . It’s a strong opinion & you can’t knock someone for that , especially if it’s said multiple times . I never liked it down here from the beginning. If something were to occur here while I’m sleeping then I eat crow , but I don’t see that .

                2. I am just joking with you.

                  You should be ramping up with snow and wind as this strong band pivots in from the north. I’d be surprised if you didnt add some accumulation.

  264. Winds are howling for the very first time as the low makes its closest pass to the coast before finally pulling away.

  265. Additional heavy bands never materialized in the Amesbury area. Nearly Zero additional accumulation since around 4 p.m.

    1. I was just talking to someone in that town 1/2 hour ago and they said it was snowing moderate to heavy with strong wind gusts. It just ended up there.

  266. Peak wind gust summary … 45 to 53 MPH along the coast.

    Current weather in Woburn: Heavy snow, wind gusts around 30-35 MPH from the north.

    About to venture out. 🙂

  267. Amazing how quickly the wet main roads went snowcovered and treacherous up here. 4.5 inches now.

  269. It’s a good thing there is nobody out here because the roads are absolutely terrible in Woburn. I haven’t seen DPW anywhere and the roads are all snow covered and slushy. We had about 1.5 from the glorified snow squall bringing me to just about 5 inches for the event.

    The wind is intermittent but when it gusts it’s pretty strong.

    1. I never had more than 2 on the ground at once, yet I had 5.0 for the event. I hope people measuring knew this about this event in the marginal areas. Several 2 inch reports from Plymouth County but there was probably never more than a full coating on the ground at once, for example.

      The MA State Climatologist I used to work with would go nuts for all the poor measurements in these set-ups. 🙂

  273. I measured about 18″ in Lunenburg. We probably got a few more after that.

    Our power went out yesterday at 7:30am and came back today at 3:30am.

  274. Good morning. We got 1/2 to 1 inch and that was all she wrote.
    Zero on pavements and my walks. I only have some snow
    on my car. What fell mostly melted over night.

    It was a big storm, but the more Eastern sections missed out.

    And for such a big “wind” event. I didn’t experience it.
    I’ve seen more windy days with bright sunshine and a NW wind.

    Some areas in MA got nailed. I would have loved to have been there! Great storm, but just a little too warm in Eastern sections. We talked a lot about Dynamic cooling, but I don’t really think that made it to Eastern sections. I really think that the marine layer was too much to over come. We got “some” limited snow with the wrap around backlash and that was that.

    btw, NOT once did I witness heavy snow. A couple of brief times it was perhaps Moderate at best. Mostly light snow was falling, despite some impressive looking radar.

    For snow lovers, Eastern MA was NO Place to be for this one.
    North Central MA northwards and Westward was the place to be. I saw a report of Colraine getting 36 inches! Now that is pretty damn impressive!!!

    I am ready for Spring, but with this disgusting Winter we’ll probably get a 3 foot blizzard sometime after the Vernal equinox and before Mother’s Day to RUIN SPRING! 🙂 🙂 🙂

    BRING ON SPRING! No more teases and disappointments, I can’t take it any more. 🙂

    Now to get ready for work as I have a ton of important crap to get done.

    Have a great day all.

    1. As far as the wind event, forecast wind gusts (here) were 45-55 MPH for coastal areas and observations showed peak gusts ranging from 45 to 53 MPH. I didn’t really see that many other forecasts beyond the evening ahead of the system.

      Still dealing with my brother in hospital post-stroke and things around that.

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