Monday March 20 2023 Forecast (7:01AM)

51 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 20-24)

As the final hours of winter tick away, leading to the Vernal Equinox at 5:24 p.m. today, we’ll start with a very chilly early morning, but see a temperature recovery during the day as high pressure shifts south of our region and a westerly breeze blows moderated air in. Our moderating trend will continue Tuesday with lots of sun and a continued westerly air flow. With the dry weather and breezy conditions through Tuesday, the risk of brush fires will be increasing. Avoid use of open flame outside near flammable brush if at all possible. Wednesday, clouds arrive and it cools slightly as a southerly air flow blows slightly cooler air in from the waters to the south of New England. The clouds that arrive finally yield some wet weather by Wednesday night as a warm front moves through. Right now it looks like we’ll be in a warm sector behind that front and ahead of a cold front on Thursday, but clouds should dominate with additional wet weather at times. The frontal boundary settles southward but rather sluggishly, allowing additional moisture as a wave of low pressure moves along the boundary bringing more rain to the region on Friday, along with somewhat cooler temperatures.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts up to 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 32-39. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 31-38. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 49-56, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 40-47. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 50-57. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 38-45 Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Highs 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 25-29)

A stretch of unsettled weather with a couple low pressure systems likely impacting the region. Rain is favored, but enough cold air may become involved for parts of the region to see mix/snow on a couple occasions.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 30 – APRIL 3)

Indications are for an active pattern with a couple bouts of unsettled weather and temperatures near to below normal.

51 thoughts on “Monday March 20 2023 Forecast (7:01AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Look what the GFS wants to deliver on the 28th!

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023032006&fh=204&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Kuchera snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023032006&fh=219&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    CMC/GDPS version

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023032000&fh=216&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Kuchera Snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023032000&fh=228&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Euro version

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023032000&fh=186&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    10:1 snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023032000&fh=240&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Looking at these models has provided me with quite the laugh to launch this 1st Day of SPRING!!!! 🙂 🙂 🙂

  4. Thanks TK. :mrgreen:

    I find it somewhat surprising that with all the rain/snowfall we just had that there is a brush fire danger. I would think that our soil would be super soggy if anything.

    1. It dries out in about a day’s time with full sun, wind, and low dew points, especially pre-leaf-out. No surprise at all.

      Areas west and north that still have snow on the ground will have less fire danger.

    2. It would be the 4th earliest on record if so.

      1952 – 3/17
      1910 – 3/19
      1980 – 3/19

      The average date in 4/9. Boston has had a low of 32 or lower past May 1 just twice – both on May 3 (1874 and 1882).

      Last year it was March 30, 2021 it was April 3, and 2020 it was April 18. It’s happened before April 1 just twice in the last 10 years – 2021 and 2017 (3/26).

  9. As always, I keep my fingers crossed that I have the right day

    Happy birthday, Dr, Stupid. Hope your day is special!!!

  15. SAK mentioned April 18th, 2020. I remember that well. I was driving down a rather sparsely trafficked I-93 (stay-at-home order was still in effect). It had snowed a bit overnight (or perhaps a day earlier) near Foxboro and there was snow in the shady areas. Also, a few ice patches under the overpasses.

  16. JP Dave, you are correct. I saw snow in Foxboro on I-95, and had seen ice patches under the overpasses on I-93 (Quincy area).

    1. So both highways. Cool. I sure as hell don’t remember that day.
      There are many days I don’t remember. But ask me about a day in 1956 and I’ll probably remember. Funny how minds work.

  18. I have absolutely no particular weather memories of early 2020. All I remember was was trying to find some kind of a mask to wear (after Dr. Fauci announced that most people should NOT wear masks) 😳 and running from store to store searching for basic items.

    My biggest memory of 2020 was empty shelves as opposed to snowflakes. If I recall we were well below normal anyway.

  19. JP Dave, my mind is similarly prone to better long-term memory than short, especially as I age.

    One thing I always remember is snow and cold – because I like the two so much – and so I can vividly recall most snow and cold events going far back, without consulting a computer. I’m not always accurate, but often I’ll know.

    One thing that doesn’t stand out – days with heat and humidity – partly because I don’t like them, in part because there are so many of them, and due to the haze I walk around in from June through August. I’m definitely not as lucid in summer.

    1. Seems we are all in the same boat.

      The fun part is going back in the archives and reading what happened during that storm. We had 3 inches here

    2. Joshua, I bet DST has a lot to do with that “haze” as well. I haven’t felt the same ever since last Sunday when we switched forward. Once we go back to “normal” time in November my mind feels a lot better.

      I wish Congress would realize this. I suppose in DC time change doesn’t matter as much in terms of sunlight. It’s probably not as noticeable either way like here in Boston.

      1. On March 12 (the first morning of DST), the sunrise was at 7:01 a.m. in Boston and 7:24 a.m. in Washington DC. You better believe they notice it. 😉

    1. 53 here now as well. Sure looking like 60 for tomorrow.

      Is it just my wife and I, OR does the sun seem brighter>
      I still feel like I’m in the twilight Zone! Sun seems super bright today! Probably because we haven’t seen all too much of it
      this past Winter Season. 🙂

      1. It’s a psychological phenomena brought up by us paying more attention to the sun today, because it’s the equinox. Its brightness is average for a clear sky with this sun angle. 🙂

        1. I was actually thinking that it’s due to so many darkish, gloomy days we had this past winter. If it wasn’t an actual record, it was probably darn close. 😉

        2. Are you saying that I’m psychologically impaired?

          I’m not crazy, I’m, just a little unwell. 🙂

  24. Past the Vernal Equinox, sun’s in our favor next 6 months. 🙂

    90F tomorrow, beach day ?? I’m ready !!!!!

    1. You’ll have a bit of a wait for that 90… if we ever get there this summer. 😉

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