Thursday March 23 2023 Forecast (7:02AM)

42 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 23-27)

A few rain showers crossed the area with a warm front overnight. A few more may be around while we are in the warm sector between that front and ahead of an approaching cold front today, and the cold front may bring a few more tonight. But the “warm sector” will provide us with above normal temperatures today, so despite a gusty breeze, venturing outside won’t be too difficult. A gusty, cooler breeze will be ours behind the cold front on Friday, but the clouds may break for sun to compensate somewhat. All bets are off for much of the weekend in terms of getting “nice” weather. Low pressure makes a run at us on Saturday and spreads its precipitation shield in. While this looks like largely a rain event, enough cold air will be in place so that parts of the region, especially interior locations and areas to the north, can start as snow and/or sleet. The low pressure area is likely to redevelop along a frontal boundary that never really gets that far northward into the region, maybe only to around the South Coast, so it’ll keep us on the chilly side, and as it departs on Sunday, any improvement will be slow and it will remain on the colder side and eventually turn breezy. High pressure finally builds in with fair weather by Monday.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Periodic rain showers. Highs 55-62. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 38-45 Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Overcast. Rain likely, possibly some sleet and/or snow especially inland and higher elevations at the start. Highs 38-45. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Areas of fog. Periods of rain tapering to drizzle. Lows 35-42. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy start with areas of fog and drizzle, then clouds may break. Highs 46-53. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 28 – APRIL 1)

Storm threat which can bring snow/sleet/rain to the region early period. Lower confidence but another low pressure system may impact the region by late in the period. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 2-6)

Overall pattern continues to look wetter and cooler than normal for the early days of April.

42 thoughts on “Thursday March 23 2023 Forecast (7:02AM)”

    1. If anyone is following the west coast weather, it seems California has 1 system projected in the next 10 days.

      Not extremely strong, looks like it might be a cool system, so low snow levels and perhaps the same day as the east coast system above.

      1. I’m following. My BIL told me a couple of days ago that they have three mostly sunny days starting Friday. Bay Area. I hope that holds true.

  5. TK – I keep trying to leave a particular comment here and it keeps getting nuked. Can you see any filtered comments here?

  12. Obviously, been inside since 7am, but I notice today’s 50F+ temps are accompanied by dps in the 40s, so it might actually feel mild.

    55F with a 12F dewpoint doesn’t work for me. Get out of the sun and its freezing. Its kind of misleading warmth on the thermometer when its that dry.

  14. That posted, but several of my attempts recently haven’t. I seem to be running into the same issue as Dr. S.

      1. The operational runs are pretty much useless at this point. Ensembles for a couple more days, then we’ll start following operational trends.

        And before anybody gets the idea that “TK is forecasting a big snowstorm”. I’m not doing that at this point. But what I am saying is the set-up is intriguing for the potential for a late-season significant snow event for at least a portion of the region, and no, we cannot EXCLUDE any portion of the region. ANY portion of the region is on the table this far out.

        These details will be the things to figure out in the days ahead. 🙂 This is how it’s done and this is how I’m going to do it. 😉

        1. That About sums up just about what I thought you meant by that statement. 🙂
          Time will tell.

  18. I know TK explained his intrigue above.

    He’s intrigued and the storm has disappeared off the latest GRS/Euro op runs.

    We’re gonna get clobbered !!!!!! 🙂 🙂 🙂

  20. Ch. 7 and Wankum are backing off next week’s storm, not totally but not as impressive. Just a lighter rain event with some snow well inland.

    1. That’s based on operational runs, which this far out is risky. It ends up leading to changing the forecast every day (the aforementioned windshield wiper effect). This potential event is still 5 to 6 days away. It’s too soon to be confident enough in operational run deterministic solutions. The threat very much exists.

  22. Out and about.

    It is a very mild spring night for March 23rd.

    Temps in the 50s, dp near 50F. Very, very comfortable !

  23. Wankum on FB

    A mix of more clouds than sun on Friday. Expect a cold rain on Saturday with a few snowflakes inland. Clearing for Sunday. Next Wed looks more like rain event than snow, and as of now, it looks like it will to be light stuff. #wcvb

  24. But now that the 00z GFS has the storm back as a stronger one but a day sooner. I guess it’s time to update all those forecasts that change run to run when deterministic details don’t matter. 🙂 (And I’m talking about a stronger low, not precipitation types & amounts, regarding the model output.)

    Reminder: Ensembles/trends – not run to run reactions.

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