Sunday March 26 2023 Forecast (7:27AM)

73 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 26-30)

Low level moisture and the resultant blanket of stratus clouds over the region to start Sunday morning will be scoured out by a drying westerly wind behind departing low pressure, and a transformation to a bright and breezy day will take place during the morning, lasting through afternoon. While a gusty wind will feel cool, the air will be mild with highs over 50. Windy conditions this evening will subside overnight as high pressure builds in, and the more tranquil weather will last into Monday, which starts with bright sun. But that’s not going to last too long as clouds will stream across the sky during midday and afternoon ahead of the next low pressure system. These clouds lower and thicken by day’s end and lead to a period of rain Monday night, which may even mix with some snow over interior higher elevations by the early hours of Tuesday. Low pressure will track just south of our region during this time, and as it departs on Tuesday, a cooler northerly wind will take over with a few lingering showers of rain, except rain or snow in higher elevations of interior locations during the day. Another area of high pressure will dry and clear us out Tuesday night into Wednesday, but as that high slips quickly offshore, the wind flips around to southwest ahead of a cold front, and a rain or snow shower may visit parts of the region with the passage of that boundary Wednesday night, leading to a dry, breezy, and chilly day for the Red Sox home opener on Thursday, the penultimate day of March.

TODAY: Lots of clouds to start, then a sun/cloud mix trending to more sun. Highs 50-57. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 49-56. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in the morning, diminishing during the afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arrives, but mixes with or changes to snow over interior higher elevations especially southwestern NH and central MA where a minor snow accumulation is possible. Lows 32-39. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with rain and interior higher elevation mix/snow, tapering to rain and snow showers. Highs 38-45. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds. Lows 33-40. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH morning, SW 10-20 MPH afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A passing rain or snow shower possible. Lows 32-39. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 43-50.Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 31 – APRIL 4)

Active, changeable weather is expected at the end of March into early April. A frontal boundary brings unsettled weather to the region to end March and a wave of low pressure may bring a rainy start to April that may even end as snow for parts of the region as colder air arrives during the April 1-2 weekend. Later in the period based on current timing, fair and milder weather with a high pressure system April 3, followed by more unsettled weather as the next low pressure and frontal system approaches / arrives April 4.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 5-9)

General pattern looks unsettled and on the cool side with the greatest chance for unsettled weather early to mid period, then a drier trend.

73 thoughts on “Sunday March 26 2023 Forecast (7:27AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    So Monday night looks to rain. In looking over the charts
    I see that generally they forecast 850mb and 925 mb temps to be below freezing. IF, and I know it is a big IF, the precipitation were to be a little more intense than models are showing, it could very well snow, even in Boston. However, as of now, the precipitation is modeled to be generally light. Oh well.

    I am wondering IF this is the LAST chance for snow in SNE????

    1. Yes, if it was heavier, snow could work right to the coast for a while.

      And no, it’s not the last chance. Bet on it. 🙂

      3. For a snow storm Boston / south with plowable snow I’ll take that bet in a second that it DOES not happen

  2. Thanks, TK. Thought I heard that March and April are generally the two windiest months of the year for Boston. Is this true? March certainly has been blustery so far.

      1. Hi, Vicki. I totally agree with you. It seems that in the past yr. or so it has seemed there have been more windy days then not.

    2. Yes, they are the 2 windiest.

      Actually Petey B has brought this up on the air recently a couple of times and explained nicely why.

      The short answer is it has to do with strong solar heating combined with cold air aloft. It’s when you have your maximum mixing of the atmosphere.

  4. Thanks TK. :mrgreen:

    In spite of the nice warm temperatures today, will there actually be a “wind chill” to speak of?

    Will my winter coat and knit hat still come in handy?

    1. NEVER wore a Winter coat the entire Winter. Not once. 🙂
      I did not go out that 1 1/2 day of real cold when it went below 0.

      2. My winter coat has been packed in my trunk for a few winters. Even when I am at the barn with my granddaughter, I wear just a sweatshirt and a lightweight coat over if.

    2. High temps 50 plus. Wind chill in the 40s, maybe upper 30s in some of the stronger gusts.

  5. Thanks TK – now that we are almost a full month into meteorological spring it seems are temps are performing below normal as opposed to meteorological winter which was above normal. Looks like temps a couple of weeks out even will continue to be below normal.

      1. Thanks JP Dave – it must be this cooler along the coast thing. Just hasn’t felt that warm along the south coast here in Padanaram Harbor

    2. My youngest thought it has been below normal too. But we have been in the 50s many days so I was surprised when she said that. What is normal for March and how is the state doing as a whole?

    3. Actually a little above.
      Basically 0.5 to 2.5 above statewide.
      Can get more specifics soon.

  7. Thank you, TK

    Fun thunderstorms last night. Uxbridge had the system right overhead with vivid lightning and booming thunder. We had a quick but nice lightning show. AJ on 7 said it was traveling just under 50 mph

      1. Right around midnight. There was a special statement issued…I think. I believe there was a cell north eastern MA too.

        2. There was also a small cluster of storms in southwestern NH around the same time.

          I am glad I put thunder in the forecast although I weighted it toward the south coast.

          NWS also had been talking about the possibility in their discussions.

  10. Hopefully we won’t be getting into bad habits into the spring with some kind of rain event EVERY Saturday. It’s already looking as consecutive (back-to-back) Saturdays in a row.
    Yes, I know weather doesn’t know one particular day from another but still… 😉

    1. Coincidence, although the next one is still a bit into the future and that timing isn’t set in stone yet.

  13. I will be very curious to see how quick we get to an El-Nino. It could be an interesting early hurricane season before El-Nino really gets going later in the season.

      1. There’s a relationship where ElNino increases shear in the Atlantic basin which is hostile to hurricanes.

      2. depending on the type of El-Nino tends to increase wind shear over the tropical Atlantic (mainly western Caribbean) it also tends to favor certain 200Vorticity anomalies more over the WPAC than over the Indo Pacific/ Indian ocean. if its your typical El-Nino like the one that seems to be setting up. Really need some westerlies to develop this month to really kick start it. It would likely be the difference between a rapidly strengthening El-Nino or a more gradual weaker El-Nino. My current thoughts is about average at the moment but thats because of what is going over the Atlantic SSTs & its trends and the Indian dipole oscillation.

  14. Unfortunately, seeing tweets of Lagrange, GA with major tornado damage. I believe from this morning.

    If the PNA is going to stay negative and pieces of energy off the Pacific are going to then move through the central US, it’s going to be a long and dangerous severe weather season.

    1. GDPS does not

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023032612&fh=42&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      Nor does the NAM

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2023032612&fh=45&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      The HRWFV3 does not

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrwfv3&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2023032612&fh=41&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      3km NAM hints at more of a transition

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2023032612&fh=43&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    2. Yup. Although it’s sfc temps at that time are 36-37F. 🙂

      More marginal temps. We’ll deserve a 5F snowfall next winter to make up for all the marginal stuff this year.

    1. My BIL just sent me an article but I can’t access without subscribing. But this I believe is essentially what the article said.

      He said the Bay Area has had three days I’d sun and drying out but all streams, etc are very swollen

      https://twitter.com/nativesantacruz/status/1639048115557920769?s=61&t=ce4mJRq91JtL8cJ1kZYs0A

      When a KONA low and a POLAR lobe get married they create a Bomb-Cyclone. Be sure not to miss the wedding next week just off the California Coastline #cawx

  17. Some GA tornado tweets and damage photos

    https://twitter.com/codyalcorn/status/1639993858640564224?s=61&t=ce4mJRq91JtL8cJ1kZYs0A

    https://twitter.com/wxnb_/status/1640004212363862019?s=61&t=ce4mJRq91JtL8cJ1kZYs0A

    https://twitter.com/alastormtracker/status/1640054694214094851?s=61&t=ce4mJRq91JtL8cJ1kZYs0A

    https://twitter.com/connor_wx22/status/1639957276646670338?s=61&t=ce4mJRq91JtL8cJ1kZYs0A

    https://twitter.com/nickkrasz_wx/status/1640043583867695104?s=61&t=ce4mJRq91JtL8cJ1kZYs0A

  19. So, who had a #4 seed, two #5 seeds, and a #9 seed in the men’s final four? Noooobody…. HAHAHA!

    1. Which is why I never play the brackets anymore, not even just for fun. Too many BRACKET BUSTERS nowadays! 😉

      1. But that’s the whole point! Why shy away from something that’s a challenge? I know diddlysquat about college basketball, but I love to play it.

        Why would it be more enjoyable to just fill out brackets that you knew were pretty much all predictable? It’s the unpredictability, surprises and upsets that make this tournament what it is! And it’s going to be even more like this in the future. Love it!

      1. The tournament I’m doing the best at is the women’s one. I’ve gotten a tremendous amount of these games right and all but one of my Final Four teams are still playing.

  21. B’s win 4-3 in shootout

    Some of the B’s starters were not playing … bergeron marchand lindholm.

    1. And that cell west of Macon, GA ….. just on this radar alone looks like it has a definite swirl with it and on dopplar, looks like it has a noticeable couplet. That might tornado warn soon.

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