Monday March 27 2023 Forecast (7:11AM)

39 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 27-31)

Down the home stretch of March we go with a variety of weather on the menu for the final 5 days of the month. A small area of high pressure starts our Monday off with blue sky and tranquil conditions, but clouds will follow and we’ll end the day overcast as a low pressure system approaches from the west, the center of which will pass south of our region tonight, but close enough so that it gives us periods of rain, that likely mix with and turn over to snow over inland higher elevations, and may even mix with snow in some areas a little closer to the coast if it comes down just heavy enough. Other than a brief slushy accumulation in a few interior higher elevation locations, this system won’t be enough to leave a wintry mark on the area. Tuesday, while that low moves away, we’ll be in a northerly air flow behind it while upper level low pressure crosses the region, with plenty of clouds and some additional light rain showers at times and even a few more snow flurries Tuesday evening as the moisture hangs on while colder air arrives. High pressure drifts across the region with fair weather during Wednesday. A fairly strong cold front will swing through the region from a low passing to our north Wednesday night and early Thursday. While the frontal boundary may deliver a passing rain or snow shower, its bigger impact will be a blustery, chilly day on Thursday – just in time for the Red Sox home opener. Bundle up for a wind chill in the 30s if you are going to the ballpark! At least it will be dry. On Friday, expect clouds to roll right back in with an approaching warm front, which may trigger a little bit of rain or even some sleet as it moves toward the region – an unsettled end to March.

TODAY: Sunny start / cloudy finish. Rain may reach eastern CT, central MA, and southwestern NH before dark. Highs 49-56. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain, may mix with and/or turn to snow at times especially inland higher elevations with brief slushy coatings possible. Lows 32-39. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Passing light rain showers except rain or snow showers interior higher elevations. Highs 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few lingering rain and snow showers evening. Lows 30-37. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, shifting to SW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A passing rain or snow shower possible. Lows 33-40. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 41-48.Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing high clouds overnight. Lows 28-35. Wind NW-W diminishing to under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Thickening clouds. Chance of light rain – some sleet possible at the start. Highs 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 1-5)

April 1-2 weekend expected to feature a mild and unsettled start and a cooler, drier finish. Dry weather early next week, unsettled weather returns toward midweek.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 6-10)

Unsettled weather is most likely early in the period with below normal temperatures, followed by a dry and eventually milder trend.

39 thoughts on “Monday March 27 2023 Forecast (7:11AM)”

  3. Thanks TK. :mrgreen:

    According to Matt Noyes morning memo:

    “Temperature swings in the coming days but NOT wintry.”

  4. Its down the road and a lot can change ……

    some severe weather is possible at locations a lot further north than its been this weekend.

    PA, OH, MI …….. the upper Mississippi Valley, western NY …… just peeking at the 00z GFS around hrs 132-135

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.
    some guidance trending towards
    a flip to snow. Not much if any accumulation. We shall see.
    Interesting that the gfs was first to sniff it out.

    6z Nam most robust. interesting to see what the 12z version has to say.

    1. Even according to Matt Noyes, a flip to snow tomorrow morning almost to the South Coast. No accumulation though with 38-39F temps. 😉

  12. OS I looked up night agent. It looks very interesting. I will like having something to watch once I finished rewatching all of blue bloods. I wish you’d been able to find Sue Thomas F.B.Eye. I think you’d like it.

    2. the 12Z NAMS just came in. Yes there may be a flip to snow and/or mix, but NOTHING will accumulate so it’s just as good as rain. If you’re up in the middle of the night, don’t be surprised if you see some snow flakes, but no big deal. Then again, you
      may not see snow flakes. 🙂

      1. I’ve seen moderate to heavy snow much of the day and not even stick to grass. It’s typical for this time of year unfortunately. 🙂

  17. JPD: Regarding the GFS to be first to show the snow involved with tonight’s system, that’s likely more due to its cold bias than anything else. 😉

    This time of just kind of got lucky, so to speak. 😉

    1. Ok, Understood. 🙂
      No matter if it mixes or flips, not going to amount to anything. 🙂
      Just would be cool to see some more flakes since we’ve seen
      so many this year.

  18. I’m watching the 12z GFS run.

    I’m interested to see its severe weather signals near the end of the work week.

    The 00z GFS had some hints at thunderstorm potential all the way to eastern NY and westernmost New England.

    Interested to see if those signals repeat on the 12z run.

    Its possible, away from a S and SW wind off the south coast waters, it could get very mild, if not warm for a brief time towards next Fri/Sat.

  19. What appears to be stopping the snow is
    mostly that models are now forecasting LIGHTER precipitation
    and then there is the very mild temperatures of today. Not sure
    how much that factors in if at all, but it is there. Currently sitting
    at 58 here in JP. I expected it to be down a few notches today.
    So far, same high temp as yesterday.

    1. Without intensity there won’t be enough cold air for any flakes. This is why I think really only the interior higher elevations see that during the steadier precipitation. It’s when it gets a little colder aloft with the upper low crossing the region later Tuesday that some snow showers could be involved at lower elevations and even to the coast, but insignificant. That’s why I only went for the chance of a quick slushy coating interior higher elevations if it was just enough to do so during the night tonight.

      You need a system of much greater intensity for a springtime “winter storm”, a much colder antecedent airmass, or stronger cold advection (or dynamic cooling) during the process. This is not one of either of those cases. 🙂

      1. Yes, I fully realize that. It was just for a time this morning,
        models were projecting a little bit more intensity, but have
        since backed off. I knew all along that intensity was an issue. It was still fun watching. 🙂

        1. What I am interested in most is the ability of the upper low to produce a few heavier convective showers Tuesday evening / night, and then whether or not a pretty intense band of convection (for this time of year) survives the trip all the way to southeastern New England late Wednesday night & early Thursday morning.

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