Tuesday March 28 2023 Forecast (7:19AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 28 – APRIL 1)

Surface low pressure just southeast of our area exits seaward while upper level low pressure area slides west to east across the region through this evening. This combination makes for a mainly cloudy day and evening with wettest weather in the morning but still some lingering light rain and/or snow showers in the region this afternoon and evening (snow favoring interior higher elevations but no accumulation to speak of). Drier weather moves in overnight and Wednesday as a small area of high pressure crosses the area, but this will be a short lived calm interlude as a strong cold front heading through the Great Lakes during the day Wednesday then moves across our area at night. This front will approach the region with a solid rain and snow shower band on it, and some of it may survive the trip across our area, albeit in weakening form when it does so. Regardless, some areas may see a burst of raindrops or snowflakes as the front goes by late at night from west northwest to east southeast. This will open the door for a dry but blustery and chilly Thursday – just in time for the Sox home opener at Fenway! Wind chills will be in the 30s at the game so plan accordingly if you happen to have tickets and not in a “sheltered” seating area. High pressure moving over the region will shut the wind off but also allow the temperature to really drop off Thursday night with widespread sub-freezing low temperatures – in fact most areas will fall to the 20s with the exception being urban centers and a few immediate coastal locations which can be a bit less cold. Friday will be a day that starts bright and cold but ends overcast as a warm front approaches. The precipitation from this front is going to be mostly in the form of rain when it arrives later in the day or evening, but may start as sleet for some locations. Once the front goes by during the early hours of Saturday, the first day of April will be a warmer but windy and wet one as we’ll be prone to frequent rain showers passing through.

TODAY: Cloudy with areas of light rain and drizzle during the morning. Mostly cloudy with passing light rain showers except rain or snow showers interior higher elevations this afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a few lingering rain and snow showers evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 30-37. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, shifting to SW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A passing rain or snow shower possible. Lows 31-38. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW, higher gusts possible.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 41-48.Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-32. Wind NW-N diminishing to under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Late-day rain possible, especially western portions of the region, which may begin as sleet. Highs 43-50. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 43-50. Wind SE shifting to SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Highs 55-62. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 2-6)

Dry, windy, cooler for April 2 as a cold front moves through early in the day. High pressure brings dry weather early next week before the next low pressure system approaches and arrives with a return to unsettled weather.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 7-11)

This period may be book-ended by unsettled weather but a transitional ridge of high pressure may time just so to bring fair, milder weather for the second weekend of the month. Low confidence forecast at this point though.

40 thoughts on “Tuesday March 28 2023 Forecast (7:19AM)”

  2. Thanks TK. :mrgreen:

    When I came home from work yesterday, I took one look at my shovel and half bag of ice melt and decided to put them both away for the season.

    Goodbye until maybe December, I hardly knew ye! :mrgreen:

  4. Thanks TK !

    I sure would like to meet the human/computer that determined, “lets start playing outside baseball in Boston on March 30th.”

    They’ve done it a few times, where, the Sox open with a west coast swing or a southern road trip that brings their 1st home game a little closer to mid April. Still chilly, but every day off the calendar helps.

    1. Ludicrous!!!! Pure Insanity!!!

      you don’t start a baseball season at this latitude in March!!!
      Makes no sense at all.

      I wish we had an ALL OUT BLIZZARD on Thurday to teach them a lesson. Short of that, how about temps in the 20s!
      Let’s do it up right!

  6. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sbli&rh=2023032800&fh=114&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    If I recall correctly, the more negative the Lifted Index is, the more unstable it projects to be.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=scp&rh=2023032800&fh=114&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023032800&fh=114&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    If this were to verify, I’d think central NY State could see some thunderstorms Saturday afternoon.

    1. Yes, the more negative the lifted index, the more likely for severe weather. In conjunctions with other factors, of course.

  7. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sbli&rh=2023032800&fh=117&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=scp&rh=2023032800&fh=117&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    This is for 4 or 5pm Saturday. (Of course, I dont know which time 🙂 )

    I’m guessing the GFS allows for some sunshine and heats temps up a bit, increasing instability ……. HOWEVER, the front looks a bit west, so the actual storms lag the instability.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023032800&fh=117&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  8. Tom you are right the more negative the lift index the more unstable it is. The day of the Springfield tornado lift index values were -8 to -10 with CAPE values between 3000 and 4000.

    1. Eleven year old granddaughter’s birthday party is this weekend. She want to be able to be outdoors for a while. Sunday looks to be the day. Thanks for your posts, Tom

    1. He’s currently suffering a non covid bug with a fever and very tired. Other than that, ok with slow progress continuing.

      1. Oh darn TK. I’m glad it is non Covid, but still he just doesn’t need more. He and you all remain in my prayers.

  19. Thanks, TK.

    Tom and Philip both made an interesting observation about the weather at this year’s NHL’s winter classic and the predicted weather for the Red Sox’ opening day. Three months separate the two events, which are both held at Fenway Park. One was in spring (January 1st); the other in winter (March 30th).

  21. Continues to look worrisome in the next week or 2 for possible severe weather.

    (I don’t think the northeast severe weather would be too severe Saturday.)

    But, sub 990 lows headed into the midwest with favorable inflow from the Gulf of Mexico.

    I’m concerned for the central Plains into the northern MS Valley.

    1. Any sun today is a bonus. The clearing really doesn’t kick in fully until later.

  24. Thanks Tom & Vicki!

    Report from today is more positive…

    He’s still running a low grade fever and they believe it’s a minor infect from former feeding tube site, but it looks like it’s under control. He feels much better today and was able to do a few more things without help for the first time. I’ll see him tomorrow afternoon next.

  25. So in my NCAA basketball bracket “forecast” I was only able to predict 1 of the final four men (U Conn), but I’m going to guess not that many people had any of the other teams that are in it. Will be fun to see how that plays out now with a #4, 2 #5’s, and a #9. 🙂 Women’s bracket prediction went much better. I was only 8 points away from a perfect final four (LSU beating Utah kept me from being perfect as I had Utah in it). The other 3, got them right. Nobody’s going to beat South Carolina. This is one of those rare instances that I will say that even though I always say “Well, that’s why they play the games.” But in this case I just don’t think anybody can do it. But they still have to win twice, so we’ll see… On the men’s side, I’m rooting for U Conn but I would not be upset if FAU won it all as a 9 seed. 🙂

    Hockey Frozen Four: Michigan will play Quinnipiac and Minnesota will play Boston University, and the winners of those 2 games will play for the national championship. I’ll root for BU to give a Hockey East team the win. They are also the biggest underdog of the 4 teams left.

    1. I’ll certainly root for BU since they are “local” and that my father graduated from there in 1958. 🙂

      I won’t root for UConn as they seem to win it almost every year plus they’re technically not “local” enough for me. 😉

      Having said that, I would certainly root for Vermont if they were still in it. They always get bounced out in the very first round, never competitive.

      1. Well if you count 1999, 2004, 2011, and 2014 as every year, then I guess that’s true about the 4 times UConn has won the men’s tournament.

        The women’s tournament on the other hand was a little more UConn dominated (they’ve won 11 of the 40).

        But I wouldn’t fault UConn for being a competitive team many years. It’s not like they cheated to get good. 🙂 Go U Conn!!!

        You’re right about VT though. Nine appearances, 8 times losing in the first round (although one of those times they were a “first four” team and won that game). The standout year was 2005 when they upset Syracuse by winning their first round game in OT, only to lose in the second around.

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