Thursday March 30 2023 Forecast (6:59AM)

59 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 30 – APRIL 3)

A strong cold front moved through the region with some rain and snow showers overnight, but now we’re just in a blustery and chilly air mass for today, but with plenty of sunshine. It’s going to feel more like late-season football weather for the start of the baseball season at Fenway Park today! High pressure drifts overhead tonight and winds drop off, allowing for quite the cold night. Clouds advance Friday ahead of an approaching warm front that will bring a rainy Friday night our way, but this may start as sleet for some due to lingering cold air. The warm front will move through and set us up for a windy, warmer but frequently wet Saturday with rain showers. As low pressure passes to our north, it will drag a cold front through Saturday evening with a few last rain showers and maybe even a thunderstorm around with the front’s passage, setting us up for a breezy, cool Sunday, but with the return of dry weather. High pressure will build in for continued dry but more tranquil weather with less wind by Monday.

TODAY: Sunshine dominant, but a few passing fair weather clouds through midday. Highs 41-48.Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty. Wind chill in the 30s.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-32. Wind NW-N diminishing to under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Late-day rain possible, especially western portions of the region, which may begin as sleet. Highs 43-50. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain and drizzle. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 43-50. Wind SE shifting to SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Highs 55-62. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with rain showers and possible thunderstorms including some heavy downpours. Clearing overnight. Lows 35-42. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW overnight.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 42-49. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, gusty.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusty.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 4-8)

Cold front swings through early in the period and its timing determines whether April 4 is a 60+ degree day for parts of the region or much cooler. April 5-7 is a period vulnerable to unsettled weather with variable temperatures, with the end of the period turning fair but breezy and chilly.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 9-13)

Some see-saw weather with a dry and milder trend early in the period then an unsettled cooler trend potentially following that.

59 thoughts on “Thursday March 30 2023 Forecast (6:59AM)”

  2. Thanks TK !

    Next event has reached day 2, so more specifics from SPC ….

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.gif

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_0600_torn.gif

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_0600_wind.gif

    …Mid-South Vicinity…

    A concerning scenario appears to be developing across portions of
    the MO Bootheel, northeast AR, western TN/KY and far northwest MS
    vicinity during the afternoon/evening. At least mid-60s F dewpoints
    are expected beneath modest midlevel lapse rates. This will support
    1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE amid intense vertical shear. Forecast
    soundings indicate 0-1 km SRH increasing to around 400 m2/s2 by
    early afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early
    afternoon ahead of the cold front within a pre-frontal
    trough/low-level confluence zone. Storm motion near 50 kt with
    supercell wind profiles will support cells capable of significant
    and long-track tornadoes. With time, upscale growth into a QLCS is
    expected, and intense wind gusts will be possible in addition to
    mesovortex tornadoes.

    The above description for the 15% tornado contour area in the vicinity of Memphis.

    2. QLCS = Quasi-Linear Convective System
      Had to look that up as I had forgotten what it meant. 🙂

  6. Thank you, TK.

    Read your brief post from yesterday on this winter and averages in response to one of mine. Thank you as always for posting.

    I agree with you on the averages part. Saying “it’s supposed to be x (some historical) average temp)” on a given day is a very common expression, but suggests that weather is so predictable (and boring) that every day on the calendar is supposed to be a certain temperature.

    However, I can forgive folks for saying this when they’re talking about a trend or long-term weather pattern, say, this January. It’s still wrong to say “it’s supposed to be x,” but when a pattern is of such long duration I can imagine (and I do it myself) someone saying “this isn’t right, it’s supposed to be colder than this, at least at some point this month.”

    This brings me to our slight disagreement. I really do think that this past winter was an anomaly, even if we factor in considerations like the La Nina. Not saying it was unprecedented, because the data show we’ve had even milder hand less snowy winters. But, it was a highly unusual winter. I do think we can say that without it being wrong.

    When I said I think 2023-2024 season will “revert to a more normal winter” I’m not saying it will be normal. But, I’m willing to bet we’ll see a couple of run-of-the mill snowstorms (say, 4-8 inches in Boston), and more sustained periods of cold or at least seasonable cold than we did this winter. This winter we essentially had no sustained cold at all (which was rather odd; even 2011-2012 had one lengthy period of cold in January) and, for all intents and purposes, no snowfall of note (also rather extraordinary, in my humble opinion).

    1. similarly. I detest a met saying that the Normal high for today
      is 49 etc. Bull Crap!!!!!!!

      The average high may be 49, but it is PERFECTLY NORMAL
      for it to be 72 or 35. You get the idea!

      That is one of my ALL TIME PET PEEVES!!!!!!

    2. I have not seen the post from yesterday. I also agree that normal is not the word to use. I sadly don’t think this winter is an anomaly as much as it is foretelling of what we have been warned about and done very little about for far too many years. We say here regularly that we need to follow the science. Here frighteningly is just some the science.

      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-20/un-science-report-to-provide-stark-climate-warning?leadSource=uverify%20wall

    1. Ya think! It is currently 36 here in JP, a mere couple of miles
      from Fenway. BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!!

      I HATE baseball in this weather.

      The season should NOT start till MAY, imho.

      for Northern Cities, baseball in APRIL is MISERABLE!!!!!!

  11. Been to several baseball games at Target Field in Minneapolis in late April and early May when the flurries were flying and the temps were in the low to mid 30s. Nice thing was that the concession folks came around the grandstand selling hot cocoa and coffee. As an aside, they also sold black licorice, which I am a big fan of (having lived in the Netherlands). This must be because of the large Swedish and Norwegian presence in that part of the country (Scandinavians tend to like black licorice, too).

    My daughter Lisa went to college in St. Paul. We overheard some very funny conversations that referenced the climate. In May, the parks would fill with folks who clearly hadn’t been out and about much in the past 6 months or so. We’d hear people saying with a lovely Minnesota accent (I really like that accent), “Oh, Mark and Alice, it’s so good to see you, haven’t seen you since October.” To which Mark would reply, “we’ve mostly been inside since then.” It was like folks hibernated.

    Of course, as TK mentioned yesterday, football fans often go to games in December and January in frigid or snowy conditions. I think, however, that the mindset is different. Football isn’t a summer sport (Patriot players will tell you that when they practice in pads in Foxboro late July, sweating like Niagara). Baseball is a summer sport. Doesn’t mean it isn’t played in other seasons – spring and fall – but it remains a summer game. By the way, baseball players will tell you that playing a game with temps in the 30s or even 40s is not only unpleasant, it doesn’t feel right. The game is supposed to be played in warmer conditions.

    1. You said: By the way, baseball players will tell you that playing a game with temps in the 30s or even 40s is not only unpleasant, it doesn’t feel right

      Having played the game in high school and beyond, I concur totally. Nothing like hitting a ball in the Wrong spot of the bat and hand stinging like crazy! NOT comfortable playing in those conditions!!!

  12. As I sit here at my computer, I can actually feel the COLD!
    For the first time since the below zero night we had, I actually feel cold!

  14. I was just outside. How they are going to play in this weather is beyond me for sure! BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR

    Still ONLY 38 here.

  16. Thanks TK.

    The squalls certainly did hold together as they made their way through CT last night. Woke up to 26F and blanket of snow on the ground. Even now at nearly 3PM, the snow has not melted from shaded areas.

    This was the scene this AM from Litchfield….a bit more snow than we had:

    https://twitter.com/Eweather13/status/1641398234521251842?s=20

    And some videos of the squall coming through last night:

    https://twitter.com/JpolmatierW/status/1641405397121609729?s=20

        1. Haves and have-nots. Stable pattern with some intensity.

          There’s also some falsity I’ve noticed out there in the weather world here and there on social media. There’s a general misconception that it’s El Nino = wet & La Nina = dry in California. Nope. It HAS been and CAN be that way. But neither are exclusive. There are too many other indices that are involved. Problem is, we had a couple La Nina episodes in a row that were dry during their drought, and a couple of strong El Nino episodes that were wet between the early 1980s and 2015 or so. That drove the misconception that they were exclusively related. That’s not the case.

    1. Don’t worry. Most of the fans will judge the entire season on the opening game. Happens every year. 😉

      1. Yes, indeed.

        I’ve also found that fans AND radio talking heads overreact to each and every loss or win. And not just baseball. It happens with every sport. Bruins lost a game the other night and I tuned in to sports radio and fans were literally saying the “Bruins will be pushed around during the playoffs and won’t win.” Seriously. That’s an insane take.

        A weather analogy. It’s a bit like saying on the 4th of February, 2023, “it’s going to be cold rest of the winter.”

        1. I’m already seeing the ultra-negative posts on FB about how much the Sox suck. Comical.

    2. 10-9 final. They got smoked! 😉 Ok maybe not. Almost won it. There will be a lot of games like this. As SAK stated, this team may not make the playoffs (we’ll see) but they will do better than “expert” expectations. 🙂

      So much for keeping that game under 3 hours though. 😉 Too much offense!

  20. Today was a 10 in my book. Bright and sunny, crisp and refreshing. I took full advantage by getting in an extra run. I just happened to be running when 4 fighter jets (I assume F-16s) streaked across the sky for part of the opening day ceremony. Very cool.

    But the absolute coolest of free air shows for me was on July 4, 2020. I happened to be running that day while an incredible array of air force jets/bombers/reconnaissance planes flew overhead.

  22. Thanks TK.

    Busy days for the SPC, in what is a very active weather pattern across the country. The never-ending Western trough/storm brigade is driving a lot of this (though it does look to break before too long). Multiple major severe weather outbreaks are likely the next several days, the first of them being tomorrow. High winds and many days of critical fire weather conditions on the backside of these storms over the Southern Plains and Southwest. And north of the severe weather threats, blizzards.

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

    National hazards map:

    https://www.weather.gov/

    A bit “ho hum” in the Northeast, as it has been for a lot of the past several months. But anytime you get a stormy pattern like this in the West, especially in spring, the middle third of the country tends to become collateral damage (hence why storm chasers love the Western trough).

  23. There is a significant fire (brush fire I believe) about 1/2 mile WNW of me. The entire area is enshrouded in smoke at the moment.

  25. It was a tad chilly at ye olde Ballard today, and while our seats were in the shade, they also didn’t have any wind, which made it a bit more tolerable. Hopefully, it’ll be warmer when I am back there on Patriots Day.

  26. https://photos.app.goo.gl/Krq5n5TqPaepVmWm9

    This photo was taken at about 8:00 p.m. looking west from Woods Hill. I circled the locations where three planets are visible. Venus is the most obvious and I probably didn’t need to circle it. This is the first time I have gotten an image of Mercury on my phone without the aid of putting the lens against binoculars and trying to hold it steady. Jupiter, which is usually more brightly seen is barely visible in the circle that I made because it is just above the horizon and obviously the atmosphere is filtering out a lot of its light. Uranus is in the sky close to Venus but you can’t see it in this photo because of too much light pollution. Saturn already set and is below the horizon and also would have been too close to the sun to see anyway. Mars is visible but not in this photo as it is too high up in the sky and out of frame beyond the top of the photo.

    This version is the same photo without the markings… https://photos.app.goo.gl/asgAmondFC1Q5JgU6

    1. Thanks!

      I think they get the game in on Saturday. Maybe a favorably timed break in the showers between the main batch and the final batch.

  28. The Memphis area vicinity for tomorrow for severe weather …. If I’m interpreting the timing correctly, they would be facing tornado development nearing dark to a few hours after sunset. So, kind of like that Mississippi town that got flattened in the darkness of night several days ago.

    1. By early afternoon, instability will maximize between 800 and
      1200 J/kg of MLCAPE along and west of the Mississippi River, which
      will be plenty sufficient for severe thunderstorms to form.
      Height falls will begin by early afternoon, as the main trough and
      storms will fire up to our west over central Arkansas. Nearly all
      hi-res model data shows a dangerous parameter space setting up
      over the Mid-South by late afternoon. Bulk shear greater than 60
      knots, SRH values in excess of 300 m2/s2 and STP values in the 2
      to 3 range. Hodographs are large and looping, indicating an
      optimal environment to support supercells, some of which could
      produce strong and long-tracked tornadoes. The best overlap of
      instability and shear does appear to be along and west of the
      Mississippi River at this time, which in coincident with the
      moderate risk. With time, the area of storms are expected to slow
      down and congeal into a line over west Tennessee and portions of
      north Mississippi. The threat for tornadoes will continue, but
      likely transition to a damaging wind threat with bowing line
      segments. The majority of the threat will exit the Mid-South just
      after midnight, with a lingering severe storm possible over
      northeast Mississippi.

      Here’s the Memphis, TN NWS afternoon discussion (above)

    1. I love this team. Feisty game tonight too. Playoff atmosphere despite playing the so-so Blue Jackets.

  30. First pitch Saturday should be rain free and 60+.
    Sunday’s weather will be a bit more like today’s for the game.

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