Friday March 31 2023 Forecast (7:12AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 31 – APRIL 4)

High pressure provides a bright start to the day today, but it will be a cold early morning as we had a clear sky and much less wind during the night, allowing for an efficient temperature drop. Clouds advance into the region by midday and thicken up this afternoon as a warm front approaches from the west, and this front will send a shield of precipitation across the region from late in the day into this evening – mainly rain, but may start as some wet snow and/or sleet mainly in the Route 2 corridor and Merrimack Valley through southern NH. Any frozen precipitation that does occur will not impact the roads with any icy conditions, however, as temperatures will remain above freezing and roads will just be wet. The main rain shield, accompanied by areas of drizzle and fog, will leave the latter two elements behind as it exits later this evening and the warm front passes the region. During our time in the warm sector Saturday, we’ll first see a slug of rain and embedded heavier showers move through during morning to midday, followed by a dry slot and rain-free conditions during the afternoon hours, during which some clearing will take place, however this may not reach the South Coast & MA South Shore until nearly sunset early in the evening. Less sun and a southwesterly wind, quite gusty, will limit temperature rise in those areas, but to the north and west where we have far less marine influence from southwest wind and more sunshine, look for 60+ high temps. We won’t be done with the rain threat yet, however. As its parent low still moves by to our north, a strong cold front will cross the region from west to east Saturday evening, accompanied by showers and possible thunderstorms. The thunderstorm threat will be greatest further west, in areas that received better heating and sit under a more unstable atmosphere, where some strong wind gusts and small hail may occur. This activity should fade in intensity as it moves eastward, then exits the coastal areas later in the evening. Dry, much cooler air then follows this overnight, and sets us up for a bright but blustery Sunday – similar to yesterday’s weather but maybe not quite as chilly. High pressure then builds in for dry and more tranquil weather Monday, with a cold start and a milder finish. But a weak colder front moving into the region Monday night may bring a few rain showers and set us up with a slightly cooler day on Tuesday as winds turn northeast to east behind the boundary, although cooling will be limited due to a weak delivery and an upper high pressure ridge in place.

TODAY: Sunny start, cloudy finish. Late-day rain reaching central MA and southwestern NH which may be mixed with some wet snow and/or sleet. Highs 43-50. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely this evening. Areas of fog/drizzle. Temperatures steady 43-50 during the evening, rising slightly overnight. Wind SE up to 10 MPH shifting to SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with rain and embedded heavier showers morning. Clearing southern NH, northeastern CT and central through northeastern MA into Metro Boston during the afternoon while clouds hang on to the southeast with some partial clearing in those areas possible by evening. Highs 52-59 South Coast, 60-67 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with gusts 25-35 MPH, except 20-30 MPH with gusts 35-45 MPH Cape Cod & Islands.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with rain showers and possible thunderstorms including some heavy downpours, even some small hail possible with any heavier storms favoring southwestern NH, central MA, and northeastern CT. Clearing overnight. Lows 35-42. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW overnight.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 42-49. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, gusty.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusty.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 51-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a rain shower. Lows 41-48. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to N.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 49-56, coolest coast. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 5-9)

A broad low pressure area is expected to travel into the Great Lakes via the Midwest early in the period and a frontal boundary in our area extending from this will likely bring lots of cloudiness and possibly some wet weather to start the period. Eventually the low will make its way through eastern Canada and deliver a dry, cool air mass to our region around mid period, followed by continued fair weather but with a warm-up late in the period. This remains a lower confidence forecast at this time with fine-tuning to come.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 10-14)

A cooler and more unsettled pattern arrives heading into mid April.

91 thoughts on “Friday March 31 2023 Forecast (7:12AM)”

  2. Thanks TK !

    Hoping folks in the central part of the US are weather vigilant today into the evening.

  8. Thank you, TK.

    To your point about the Sox getting smoked, this is the globe’s view. I have no use for Boston sports media and less than that for shaughnessy

    Not surprisingly, the Red Sox already are back in last place
    The 0-1 Red Sox are in last place.

    The upstart Orioles beat the Boston wannabes, 10-9, Thursday at frozen Fenway — a train wreck of a baseball game in a non-tidy 3 hours and 10 minutes.

    1. He takes up space in that paper better used for something else. He hates Boston and all its teams.

      He’s getting paid to troll the fans.

  10. Thanks, TK.

    Shaughnessy is off the rails. “A train wreck of a baseball game.” What? And the sarcastic tone about the game lasting a “tidy 3 hours and 10 minutes.”

    Not to make this a baseball v. football thing, but the game was a lot more enjoyable – with a lot more happening – than most of the Patriots games last year, and it was a tad shorter than most of the Patriots games last year (despite the 19 runs).

  11. At this time of year, atop Mt. Washington it is still very much winter. Some snow is in the forecast along with a potent northwesterly tomorrow night (wind gusts up to 105mph; wind chill 30 below zero). Nothing out of the ordinary, of course.

  12. I was at the game yesterday, and the last few innings were a lot more exciting that most of the Pats games last year. The new rules made the game go faster, and the reason it was still a 3-hour game was the multitude of pitching changes.

    The game was a bit of a train wreck, with bad pitching and some questionable defense (especially from Baltimore), but that didn’t make it any less enjoyable.

    As for Shank, there’s a blog out there that I read called Dan Shaughnessy Watch. Basically, he reads all of Shank’s stuff, then blogs about it, so you don’t have to waste your time. It makes it highly entertaining.

    http://danshaughnessy.blogspot.com/

  14. Just quickly reading the mesoscale discussion from doc a high risk is going up for Memphis area when the outlook is updated.

  16. Say a prayer for those folks that this dies not materialize. The potential is there for long track violent tornadoes.

  17. I am certain we’re going to see particularly dangerous situation attached to some of these tornado watches.

  20. Thanks, TK!

    Memphis, too, in the bull’s eye.
    Let’s hope any damage is minimal, if any.

    Tennessee has already had its share of tragedy this week.

  21. In the fun model differences category.

    For Easter, April 9…

    GFS: Fair, nice, 50s to 60.
    ECMWF: Look for snow-covered Easter eggs with your winter coat on in parts of SNE. 😉

  27. I’m watching whatever weather station I have with fios. They said these are long lived supercells. I don’t know how accurate these stations are. But either way looks to be horrific

  28. Don’t sleep on the weather in the Northeast tomorrow. Damaging winds are likely to be a real concern, both with showers/thunderstorms as well as behind the front. I think the SPC outlook looks good. Greatest severe weather risk will probably be for the coastal mid-Atlantic, but certainly a non-zero damaging wind and an isolated tornado threat for most of SNE as well…

    Obviously a massive outbreak, as expected, unfolding today across the Midwest and South.

  30. Des Arc, Arkansas about to get severely impacted. Scary looking radar hook echo just southwest of them.

      1. 8PM-10PM is the window I’m thinking for the WHW forecast area, but I do think that the cluster of showers/storms will be undergoing a weakening trend, which should lessen the risk.

  31. Reading the news Boston discussion if strong severe storms were to happen it would between 5pm-11pm.

  33. JpDave the slight risk expand eastward. Earlier outlook only had marginal risk for interior parts of SNE. The slight risk was in parts of upstate NY

  34. WxWatcher…

    RRFS-A prototype is running now. I’m thinking the current system is a good early test. Do you have any thoughts on this hopefully superior short range guidance tool?

      1. It’s on Pivotal Weather as RRFS A … It’s not running steadily and some runs are incomplete, but there are a couple runs from today you can look at.

    2. Unfortunately, I really don’t. I only even heard of it within the past several days. Supposedly there is a lot of hope behind it, and I’ll definitely be watching, and will be interested to see if you and I notice any of the same things. I think we definitely have an “overload problem” on the amount of these short range models, but I do think there’s some concrete steps being take to address that.

      I think RRFS has done pretty well with today’s event, but then again, most of the models have. These strong forcing days tend to be slam dunks. The big challenge with severe storms is always the weak forcing days. If I had to bet, the 12z runs tomorrow of the HRRR, ARW, NAM NEST, and the like will be fairly similar to one another and should be pretty accurate in terms of what to expect in SNE and the mid-Atlantic tomorrow evening…

      JPD – the model is available on Pivotal Weather. I have a subscription there and I’m not sure if it’s behind the paywall or not, but worth a check if you’re interested. Will let you know if I see it elsewhere if it’s not there…

    1. I just think it’s the typical “after 4 days” issue that’s present on all guidance.

      You can make a case for either scenario coming true, or neither.

    2. Well now the GFS has decided to swap out the dry/mild weather for an Easter rain & snow event too. HAHA

  40. Super cell southwest of Memphis lined up on its current track to be near Memphis in about an hour.

  43. My heavens eithrr tornadoes or warnings / watches are everywhere. One station says 31 million people living in the tornado watch areas

    1. About as bad an outbreak as we’ve seen in a long time. I do recall a similar outbreak from maybe 10 years ago. I can’t quite remember.

      2. We’ll have to see how many confirmed tornadoes there are. We’ve been in a relative severe weather / tornado drought out there for quite a while. It was bound to end eventually…

  45. This is one time that DST was a good thing. I was just able to beat the rain into work. Had we been still on Standard, my commute out the door this morning would have been in the rain.

    No I am still NOT in favor of year round DST!

    Years ago, we still would have been on Standard in early April.

  48. Beyond today …..

    1 more big piece of western US energy coming into the central US (another severe weather opportunity) in 3-4 days …… then a possible pattern break/change ???????

      1. The wind isn’t howling SW down here, but it still feels pretty mild. I think the small airport here in town is 50F with a similar dp. It felt and smelled like spring when I went out. 🙂

  51. New weather post…

    The dog decided she wanted to play fetch in the rain with a tennis ball – for 20 min. 😉

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