Saturday April 1 2023 Forecast (9:08AM)

88 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 1-5)

April’s arrival will be met with changeable weather today – a foggy start giving way to a rainy morning, a drier afternoon with sunshine for some, a shower or thunderstorm for some locations this evening, and a if you’re up later tonight and outside, you can feel the arrival of a cold air mass. Low pressure passing to our north causes this as its warm front saunters across the region from south to north this morning, putting us in the “warm sector” for midday and afternoon, before its cold front charges through from west to east this evening. Of course, while it turns quite mild across the region today, that warm air will be greatly modified closer to the South Coast where a southwesterly wind comes off chilly ocean water – typical for this time of the year of course. Sunday’s weather will be less changeable – a blustery, bright day, and quite a bit cooler than today. High pressure moves in for more tranquil conditions Sunday night into Monday, and as the high sinks to the south, it will warm up Monday afternoon decently, ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will have far less punch than its predecessor, bringing the chance of a rain shower to the region Monday night. Behind it, the air isn’t that cold, with most of the cooling coming from a light wind off the water in coastal areas on Tuesday. By Wednesday of next week, low pressure heading for the Great Lakes extends its warm front to just south of our region, and we can expect a general onshore air flow, and a cloudy day with a chance of some rainfall.

TODAY: Areas of fog early. Cloudy morning with rain, moderate to heavy at times. Breaking clouds and clearing with sunshine emerging especially northeastern CT and central through northeastern and east central MA and southern NH for the afternoon while clouds hang on longer to the southeast, eventually with some partial clearing in those areas as well. Highs 52-59 South Coast, 60-67 elsewhere. Wind varible up to 10 MPH except SW 10-20 MPH South Coast at first, then SW 15-25 MPH later with gusts 25-35 MPH, except 20-30 MPH with gusts 35-45 MPH Cape Cod & Islands.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with rain showers and possible thunderstorms including some heavy downpours, even some small hail possible with any heavier storms favoring southwestern NH, central MA, and northeastern CT. Clearing overnight. Lows 35-42. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW overnight. Wind chill falling into the 20s.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 42-49. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, gusty. Wind chill in the 30s.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusty.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 51-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a rain shower. Lows 41-48. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to N.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 49-56, coolest coast. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Highs 42-49. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 6-10)

Unsettled weather likely lingers for the start of the period until a cold front trailing low pressure in eastern Canada goes by the region. There’s a lot of uncertainty in the weather that results from a somewhat complex pattern as we head through next week. Inconsistent guidance doesn’t help – showing fair/mild weather on one run for a given day only to decide it can snow on the next run. My overall feeling remains generally the same. I’m leaning toward a fair, cool mid period, a warm-up, to follow, then unsettled weather arriving at the end of the period. Don’t make any solid plans off this outlook as obviously a lot of fine-tuning is to come.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 11-15)

A cooler and more unsettled pattern arrives heading into mid April.

88 thoughts on “Saturday April 1 2023 Forecast (9:08AM)”

    1. Thank you. I’m happy to see that for here. We are still barely in the yellow for severe but I’m never a fan of a tornado threat.

      Yesterday in central southern states as well as up into Illinois was just horrific

  7. Thanks, TK.

    When the NWS decides whether there will be a “slight” or “marginal” chance of any storms it seems a little strange to me. Wouldn’t “marginal” mean any storm could go severe either way whereas “slight” means there would be less of a chance of a severe storm?

      1. I’m not a fan of the wording they use for that system. It confuses more people than it does help them understand.

        As it is, two of them are reversed from how they should be.

        “Risk” scale should be like this…

        No risk.
        Marginal risk.
        Low risk.
        Moderate risk.
        High risk.
        Extreme risk.

        Simple. Although “risk” should probably be replaced with “chance” or “probability”.

  8. Thanks TK
    I would not be surprised western parts of MA CT are under a severe thunderstorm watch later today.

  9. Way to the north of the tornado outbreaks was a blizzard in the Twin Cities – 80,000 currently without power – 8.9 inches puts them at third snowiest winter in history – less than ten inches from record. They still have shot. Winter ends there May 1st!

  10. I went back and took a look at RRFS’s very first “trial run” from Thursday March 30 and so far it’s verifying very nicely. It was a forecast out through 60 hours so it’ll also be tested for its handling of the convection moving into western areas at the end of the day. There were 4 more runs of this model yesterday (none today so far – I imagine we won’t see any runs during this weekend).

  12. Too bad this blog didn’t exist 26 years ago.

    3/31 – 4/1/1997

    25.4” (Boston)
    33.0” (Worcester)
    ❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️

  13. The only April snow day I ever had thanks to that storm. Also thanks to that storm since school was already called off my mom let me stay up and watch the national championship game between Arizona and Kentucky which Arizona won in overtime.

    1. Great memories, JJ!

      I am planning on retiring within the next three years. I will miss teaching, but I am looking forward to watching all of the Super Bowl and the national college football and basketball championship games. They are all played on a school night! I can only make it to halftime of those games. 5 am comes early!

      My son just got a text that the Pats traded Mac Jones for Lamar Jackson. I fell for it and almost posted the news year before we both realized it’s April 1!!! 🙂

      Remembering the March 31-April Fool’s Blizzard, 1997. Taunton’s fourth greatest snowfall ever (23.3″) and Boston’s fifth (25.4″).

      Thanks, TK!

      3. Woburn Fire Department posted on the local page today about their new $12 million helicopter (including bad editing of the words on a random picture of a red copter) and that they’d be doing a quick 2 week training course to teach everyone how to fly it. 😉

        Most people didn’t fall for it but a few have. 😉

        1. Hahaha. Clever also

          My youngest and her husband here got something that sounds like a cricket and hid it upstairs so kids would think they had a cricket. I heard tons of laughter and fun.

  14. Sun starting to come out where I am. Now wait and see how much the atmosphere destabilizes and what happens later today with thunderstorms.

  16. JJ and other golf enthusiasts. I can’t re call if I mentioned this. The Masters starts this week of course and ends on Easter weekend. I like that I’m starting to enjoy watching golf again and am looking forward to it. I will be very unhappy if anyone who moved to LIV wins. I echo every word Freddie has said about them.

    1. Quite a clear zone for destabilization. Doesn’t look like
      it will make it here.

      52 here

      Looks like the front recently slipped passed or is in the area.

      1. It will make it here, but the thing is, just because it reaches you doesn’t mean the storms will, necessarily. The clear sky is where it is now to fire up big boomers in the next few hours, and they move across areas that heated nicely (relatively of course). Either way, timing, time of year, and geography are against them reaching the coast in potent shape.

  18. It’s a good thing that today is not a school day. I can picture a lot of phony school shootings being called or texted in. That’s all a school district would need in this recent climate.

    I don’t believe kids pull April Fools jokes on one another these days anyway. I remember when I was in school though, you always had to be on your guard especially early in the day. 😉

    1. There were a number of false calls in MA after Nashville. And an increased police presence at many schools. These people are sick

      1. My town had one at the high school yesterday. Had to lock it down right before normal dismissal time. Caused a huge bus delay for Elementary at my sons school.

  23. Warm front just went by me.

    Cloudy, calm, cool, bright western horizon one moment.
    Breaking clouds moving quickly SW to NE, temp up several degrees, humid feeling, and a SW wind 5-15 MPH the next moment.

  24. Sun out here w/ puffy white clouds. Temp. here is 57 degrees. Took a little walk. Looks and feels like nice early spring day. Wonder if it will bring nastiness here later on. We shall see.

  25. Sun trying to break here but clouds still dominate. I bet no real clearing will occur here in Boston for the rest of the afternoon.

  30. Any fronts coming in tonight along the south shore ? Trying to decide if I should take my new flag down off my front porch .

  32. I think NJ eastern PA and Delware would be the areas to watch for that isolated tornado.

  37. The action has been Central NJ eastern PA and Delaware. Currently tornado warning near Trenton, NJ

  39. SC you may have something interesting on your doorstep. If it holds together, my guess is it will go just north of me 🙁

  40. Adam Duvall with a walkoff homer (his 2nd homer of the game) to win it for Boston. Chris Sale stunk and the Sox fell behind 7-1 (similar to what happened on Thursday), but the team didn’t give up. That’s a good sign, in spite of concerns about pitching (which I do have).

    It’s been a wild 2 games. The Orioles are 10 for 10 in steal attempts on the base paths. I believe that’s a record for 2 consecutive games. There’s been a lot of offense, some God awful pitching, and a VERY costly miscue by the Orioles left fielder. He dropped an easy fly ball in what would have been the 3rd out in the 9th and an O’s win. Instead, the Sox capitalized on the error with the Duvall homer. Well, baseball is back and I’m loving it.

  41. We have a special,weather statement for our area. The way things are going that may be the highlight of my weather evening 😐

  43. Nasty boomers just passing through Pepperell. Heavy rain and great lightning show all around. No trace of wind here.

  44. Storms are marching Eastward and slowly DYING while they do.
    I don’t imagine much will be left when the come rolling through
    the city. 🙂

    Significant loss of potency on the last few frames of radar.

      1. What didn’t Fizzle here (well away from ocean) went north of us. No snow and now no thunder. 👿

  45. Looks like the storms missed Natick. Is the wind going to pick up tonight and then peak around noon tomorrow? If so, there are a few things I might move into the garage. Thanks.

    1. Yes, been carrying a gusty wind in the forecast for a few days for today. No changes.

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