Thursday April 6 2023 Forecast (7:18AM)

62 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 6-10)

Today is the only day for the next several that there will be unsettled weather to talk about, and along with that a question to answer: Will the warm front make it through before the end of the day? The answer is yes, mostly. The frontal boundary we’re waiting on may never quite make it all the way through the coastal areas from Boston northward, even including a portion of southeastern NH away from the coast and adjacent northeastern MA. This is typical for an advancing warm air mass into our region, especially at this time of year – early to mid spring, when without a strong push of surface wind from the southwest, the cold/cool air is hard to dislodge. So while temperatures start out in the 40s today, except 50+ in a few locations to the south where the frontal boundary has already passed, we may end up with quite the temperature contrast by the end of the day with 70+ high temps over interior sections, especially with any sun-breaks, and staying stuck in the upper 40s to lower 50s from the city of Boston northward. Regardless of the position of that frontal boundary by day’s end, a fairly strong cold front will push across the region from northwest to southeast this evening. So a summary of our resultant weather from these fronts, parented by low pressure passing to our north, is a generally overcast morning with areas of fog and drizzle, breaks in the clouds and even partial sun where the warm air is successful in making an appearance, while clouds remain more solid and stubborn in the limited areas that the warm front does not pass by completely, a few rain showers around during the afternoon, and then a swath of rain showers and possible embedded thunder moving across the region from the end of the day into the evening hours. Later tonight, the front sweeps us clean and the sky clears as the air dries out and cools markedly. This sets up a stretch of dry weather from Friday into early next week. Friday-Saturday will be cooler than normal with diurnal fair weather clouds around both days, mixing with the sun, along with a gusty breeze as high pressure heading through the Great Lakes interacts with departing low pressure in eastern Canada with our typical squeeze-play pressure gradient here. With the low’s influence out of the picture by Sunday and Monday, and high pressure sinking to our south, we’ll undergo a warming trend, but it will be slow at first, so if you have Easter plans for Sunday, be aware that the morning will start out quite chilly.

TODAY: Overcast morning with areas of fog and drizzle, which may persist from Boston to the MA North Shore and NH Seacoast into the afternoon while clouds thin and break elsewhere with some partial sun possible. Isolated to scattered rain showers possible from mid afternoon on. Highs 48-55 southeastern NH and northeastern MA down to Boston proper as well as Cape Cod / Islands, 55-62 remainder of South Coast and just away from eastern coastal areas including the eastern Merrimack Valley, 63-70 elsewhere except 70+ possible in any inland areas that see any sunshine. Wind E-SE up to 10 MPH shifting to SW 10-20 MPH from south to north, but wind shift may never make it into aforementioned cooler locations.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with rain showers and possible thunder. Clearing overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 50-57. Wind NW 15-25 MPH and gusty.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY: Sunny start, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 54-61. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 11-15)

High pressure will dominate our weather throughout this entire period with a dry spell. Temperatures warm to above normal through mid period, but we may be vulnerable to a back-door cold front and cool-down late period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 16-20)

High pressure hangs on with more dry weather to start this period – temperatures initially cooler than another warm-up to follow. Later in the period a trough and frontal boundary approaching from the west would turn the weather more unsettled with an increased chance of rain showers.

62 thoughts on “Thursday April 6 2023 Forecast (7:18AM)”

  1. Thanks TK !

    From Mt Washington ……. it’s 30.3F at the base, 54.7F at 4,000 ft and 43.9F at the summit.

    Really warm above us.

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Thank you for being real about the warm front. I had a strong sense it would NOT make it through Boston

  8. From time and date, earth is at around 93,000,000 miles away from the sun today or equal to 1 Astronomical unit.

    Earth will continue to “pull away” from the sun until early July, when we are at around 94,500,000 miles from the sun. This slows our orbital speed in space which makes summer longer, almost 94 days long.

    Earth will be back to 93,000,000 miles away from the sun again on October 3rd/4th.

  10. I heard on the news this morning that there is a new Omicron sub-variant in India but has not reached the United States as of yet.

  11. Thank you, TK.

    Tom mentioned the earth pulling away from the sun from early July to early October. I just calculated that the earth’s speed in doing so is 694mph. That’s impressive.

  13. Thanks, TK:

    59º here under grungy, gray skies.

    Happy Passover!

    I remember the temperature for the 1976 Marathon was 96º. Easter was the day before and also was in the 90s.

    https://www.baa.org/races/boston-marathon/history

    If you scroll down about 3/4 of the way down of the link above, you’ll find a wonderful list of signifcant weather during the Boston Marathon on a BAA website!

  14. 52 here in JP. Sun has been breaking though on and off. Even when not, it is very bright. Front must be awfully close.
    Will it come through or not? Either way it is 10 degrees warmer
    than yesterday!!!!!

    1. Now up to 55. Was just out and when I was out the sun was out pretty strongly, BUT could still feel some coolness coming in off of the ocean. 🙂

  15. Thank, TK

    58º here under once grungy, gray, now, brightening skies.

    Happy Passover!

    I remember the temperature for the 1976 Marathon was 96º. Easter was the day before that and was also in the 90s.

    https://www.baa.org/races/boston-marathon/history

    If you scroll down about 3/4 of the way down of the link above, you’ll find a wonderful list of signifcant weather during the Boston Marathon on a BAA website!

  18. Anyone see a report of an earthquake out this way. I’m not finding it but folks from here to Charlton are reporting something on Sutton Fb page.

  19. Thanks TK.

    FWIW: 16 day precip total for Boston from the 12z GFS: 0.01”

    12z Euro through day 10 is a goose egg after today/tonight, which will be sporadic showers at best.

    Most of the Northeast/mid-Atlantic will be in the same boat. Something to watch as the region enters its peak brush fire season and an important hydrologic time of the year…

  20. I know some are interested in the Master’s

    The weather down there may well get a lot chillier and perhaps wetter as the tournament goes on.

    The high that gives us a nice weekend might push low level, chilly air from the northeast.

    Leader currently at -7.

  21. This is gonna be a 2 hr & 30 min Sox game today I think, barring something really weird in the 9th inning.

    1. About an hour ago Captain. Felt by a lot of folks out this way. I’m with a grand kiddo in Uxbridge. Although some in Uxbridge felt it, we did not. Daughter in Sutton didn’t either

      1. Oh, okay. I heard a boom last night after supper. I couldn’t find any info on the scanner or an earthquake website.

        1. Maybe they are related. When my brother had an earthquake several months ago, it didn’t show up on usgs till next day.

    1. Don’t apologize. These are really important warnings. Thanks for the reminder.

      As WxWatcher mentioned, we’re going to be bone dry for a while. Given the lack of foliage at this time of year, this can be a recipe for brush fires that can expand rapidly.

    2. Thanks Vicki, very timely. I’m actually slightly surprised to see that, since current moisture conditions in the region aren’t especially concerning by most metrics. But those products are only issued after coordination with state forestry agencies, so if they’re concerned enough to issue them now, makes me think it could become a rather serious issue after another 10+ days of no rain.

      I think the bigger period to watch will be Wednesday-Friday of next week as winds kick back up behind a weak and dry cold front.

  24. Today’s in-between weather in Boston had a distinct April feel.

    I do like this a lot about weather in New England. Every month has a distinct feel to it, but also a characteristic daylight look. It’s not so much the actual temperature, though that does play a role. Today had battleground written all over it, at least during my outdoor run. It was much milder than yesterday, but you could at the same time feel the coastal influence (marine layer).

    Despite my grumblings about summer’s heat and humidity, I love the daylight look in June. There’s something very special about it.

    The air clarity on sunny days in April and October is spectacular.

    1. Wow. Thank you. I’ll post on the Sutton site. I don’t know how to read either but someone there might

  27. The upcoming warm pattern is not without risk. There will be sea breeze days that take considerably away from the ability to warm up at the coast, and there is at least 1 and possibly 2 back door cold front possibilities to “ruin” a day or two of warmth. This is not locked in for the entire stretch in terms of warmth for everybody. As would be expected, coastal areas are most vulnerable to being thwarted.

  28. Does anyone else think it’s a bit odd that the Frozen Four is being played in Tampa? And, this is the 3rd time in 11 years it’s been in Tampa. Despite some NHL teams being in the South, hockey is almost exclusively a Northern sport (practically all players are from Northern states, Canada, or Northern Europe). And decades and decades the four finalists have been absolutely dominated by teams in Northern states. I think it should be held in a Northern city.

    1. I don’t think it’s odd at all. In fact I think it’s a good idea to put it down south somewhere to introduce more fans to college hockey, and one of the better places to put it is in the arena of a team that has been consistently top 10 in fan attendance during the last decade – the Tampa Bay Lightning. Love them or hate them, it’s been a solid franchise for quite some time now, very competitive.

      Why shut out a few areas that could do a great job as host, just because they are not “northern”? Yes it may be true that pretty much all of the big college hockey teams are in the northern half of the country because that’s where long-standing traditional hockey schools happen to be located, but I don’t think this is a reason to act like the rest of the country isn’t interested in the sport at a college level. It’s more than clear that they are interested in it in some of those cities (Tampa Bay, Dallas, LA, and others) that are definitely not NORTH.

      So, I completely disagree with you. 😉

      1. Cities bid to host the Frozen Four, and it basically has to be an NHL sized-arena, so you’re already limited to where it can be held. It’s not just the games, there’s a fanfest, as well as the Hobey Baker Award presentations. It attracts college hockey fans from all over, so they try and make it a destination, since most people will be there for 4-5 days. Tampa has received rave reviews every time they have hosted (as have Boston and St. Paul, MN), which is why they keep bidding and keep winning.

        The next 3 are: St. Paul, St. Louis, and Las Vegas.

  29. Logan’s at its high temp for the day, at 52F.

    Seeing a freshening west wind in Worcester, probably the cold front. Should mix things up a bit. Wonder if 10pm brings a couple more degree rise before cool air advection sends temp back down.

  30. I see it was talked above ……

    I think the reservoirs are probably in very good shape. Rivers are running with flow and I’d bet deeper groundwater levels are good. Drought wise, we are in good shape.

    But, the top layer of the ground. That could dry out real fast. Strong sun and low humidities with not much vegetation yet. I hope folks are careful with spring burns, etc coming up.

    1. I was going to say that if we had some decent snow this past winter (12.4”) we would be in much better shape but then a lot good did 110.6” do in 2015 in which we ended up with a major drought following for months on end anyway.

      At least no summer drought for the west for a change. Any wildfires should be kept at a minimum at least.

  31. For whatever the loud noise and the shaking was, it was felt for miles. My oldest said it was VERY loud in N uxbridge and their house shook. It was before I got to uxbridge. If you draw a line from uxbridge to Charlton to Thompson CT that seems to be the area. But it could reach beyond that

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