Tuesday April 11 2023 Forecast (7:13AM)

50 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 11-15)

Brush fire danger goes up today and remains quite high through Wednesday as we enter a period of increased wind. This will take place as the pressure gradient tightens up between high pressure to the south and low pressure passing to the north. The dry spell goes on though as the rain shower activity associated with a cold front trailing the low will stay to our north. We warm up nicely today and end up just a little bit cooler behind the frontal boundary on Wednesday. With winds blowing healthily from the land, sea breezes will be generally non-existent so coastal areas will share in milder air despite the gusty breeze. While the warm-up gets even stronger Thursday and Friday as high pressure dominates both at the surface and aloft, the coast becomes more vulnerable to sea breezes again with a weaker wind field. A back-door cold front will move into the region from the northeast Friday night or Saturday with a more widespread cool-down, but still temperatures will remain above normal, and warmest away from the coast.

TODAY: Sun filtered by lots of high clouds. Highs 67-74 except cooler Cape Cod / Islands. Wind W 5-15 MPH and gusty.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 62-69 except cooler Outer Cape Cod / Islands. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 45-52. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 70-77 except significantly cooler in coastal areas. Wind W up to 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 78-85 except significantly cooler in coastal locations. Wind W up to 10 MPH with redeveloping coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NE.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 60-67, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 16-20)

A weak low pressure area from the south and a trough of low pressure and frontal boundary approaching from the west turn April 16 into a mostly cloudy day with a few isolated to scattered showers possible during the day and a more solid band of showers moving through west to east at night, potentially hanging around to very early April 17 (Patriots Day / Marathon Monday), but indications are now that we dry out for the bulk of the Boston Marathon and the late-morning-starting Red Sox game. Will continue to monitor and fine-tune this forecast since it’s still a number of days away. Generally dry, cooler weather expected after that into the middle of next week before a moderating trend following.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 21-25)

Dry weather indications to start, unsettled weather chances mid and/or late period. Temperatures showing a cooling trend relative to normal.

50 thoughts on “Tuesday April 11 2023 Forecast (7:13AM)”

  1. Thanks TK !

    I know Eric F yesterday put out a creative map, where he highlighted where each region of southern New England should experience their warmest day this week.

    Based on it, he’s not expecting those 80s near the coast Friday.

  3. Thanks TK. :mrgreen:

    The morning tv mets continue to push 80s in Boston for Friday.

    “Six o’clock jump” perhaps?

  6. If it is just a sea breeze, then I expect to hit 80 here in JP on Friday, even if it falls back to the 70s . We shall see. Logan, a totally different story

      1. Not good thank you. She felt briefly better and then got worse. EVERY symptom of the latest covid variant, yet
        has tested negative 5 days in a row!

        My son thinks it might be Human-metapneumovirus which
        is very prevalent in the Boston Area currently.

        https://www.lung.org/lung-health-diseases/lung-disease-lookup/human-metapneumovirus-hmpv/symptoms-diagnosis

        Since she is older with an already weakened immune system she would be very susceptible to this illness. I being much stronger and with a much stronger immune system
        have NOT contracted it thus far. Knock on wood.

        Worried about her developing pneumonia from it. Watching it closely.

        Thank you for asking.

        2. Please , please , please keep an eye on her . You know about my wife’s immune system & when she got bacterial pneumonia recently her body could not fight it which went into septis then septic shock . Not trying to scare you but if she gets disoriented call 911 immediately

  10. For the next 24 days I’ll post a “thank you” to TK in all 24 official European languages, starting with Bulgarian:

    Благодаря ти, TK.

    1. Nice touch Joshua.

      Our niece actually studied in Sofia, Bulgaria as part of her Fulbright Scholarship.

  12. Logan is 61, BUT with a WSW at 5 mph.
    I WONDER what that might mean? UNLESS the wind picks up
    very Soon, LOGAN WILL have yet another sea breeze!!!!

  13. JPD, very impressive that your niece received a Fulbright scholarship (they’re very competitive) and in Sofia, Bulgaria (such an interesting place).

    1. Thanks Joshua. She is very bright and has been all over.
      She spent years in Lima Peru and Santiago Chile and now
      resides just outside of Melbourne Australia. 🙂

  16. Logan has hit 70 with WSW wind at 10. I guess the wind picked up in time to prevent the sea breeze.

    I believe the ave date for 1st 70 degree reading is April 9th, so we’re just about average, only missing by 2 days. IF I have the date correct.

    69 here in JP.

    1. Average data for Boston is April 7. Earliest is January 1, 1876, latest is May 18, 1995.

      Last 10 years:
      2022 April 12
      2021 March 11
      2020 January 11
      2019 March 31
      2018 February 20
      2017 February 24
      2016 March 9
      2015 May 4
      2014 March 14
      2013 April 9

  18. Thanks, TK!

    I hope and pray everyone’s loved ones here continue healing and gaining strength each day, especially Mrs. OS and your brothers, Vicki and TK.

    I have the scanner on and there doesn’t seem to be any major fires (thank goodness) right now down in this area. There was a fire in the Freetown State Forest at 11 am. There was a major house fire in Hanover overnight and another house fire in Lakeville yesterday.

    Senior skip day is the rumor around the school for this Friday.

    I may have a senior skip day, too, on Friday (and I don’t mean the Class of 2023!!!) Hahaha! 🙂

    2. Thank you, Captain. I think my brother will go to rehab this time. He went straight home from hospital ten days ago and that didn’t work

      I’ve been listening to the scanner here. Several fires in neighboring northbridge. And I think some in Douglas. Northbridge had at least five local towns supporting them.

  19. 73 here in JP. I just opened up ALL of the windows so It feels like I am outside. Really nice! If this isn’t a 10 day, I don’t know what is.

  20. Today is my first official “shorts” day of the year. No matter how warm it may get, I base the decision on what it should be like when I leave the office at 2:30am. Since it should still be in the upper 50s, shorts it is. Anything cooler than about 52, and I’ll go with pants. Tomorrow will likely be a pants day, but Thursday is definitely looking like a shorts day. I usually will wear shorts to work nearly every day between early June and late September.

  21. So sorry about your wife JPD. You should really take her to her PCP right away to get a more accurate examination to be sure what she specifically has. Maybe even get a Covid test by a medical professional as opposed to the home tests just to be absolutely sure. I get the impression though that both of you have been pretty much staying at home since 2020. Hope she gets better very soon. Keep us posted here.

  23. JPD. I’m just getting back here. More to see if you answered abiut mrs OS than the weather. I am so sorry to hear she is still struggling. Hugs to you both and positive thoughts and prayers for you pr wife ❤️

  25. Hi WHW folks!

    2 significant brush fires just in Woburn alone today. One near the Burlington line has been burning longer and a lot tougher to bring under control. I saw the other one, ironically started while I was close-by. I had left a haircut appointment and cruised to the nearby cemetery to check on some things I put out there recently, and in the time I was stabilizing a pot of lily flowers at the grave next to my relative’s, a fire started about 3/4 of a mile down the road I had just come down, behind a school on the bank of a pond – wooded area. It was spewing pretty thick smoke, but since the East Woburn fire station is literally across the street, the WFD was on scene in seconds, and the fire was under control in minutes.

    Weather…
    No real changes to my thought process in today’s discussion. We’ll have another day of offshore wind flow tomorrow – slightly cooler than today but still very mild compared to normal. Still looking at the increased sea breeze threat for Thursday-Friday which may very well keep Logan well below the high temps of inland locations – in fact I’m banking on it.

    I have noticed that today’s 12Z ECMWF is a little more troughy and cut-offy next week, with a much cooler and unsettled regime forecast by the model. Not buying it full-on after just a run of it, but it will be something to monitor.

    1. If we had at least “normal” snowfall this winter, I bet there be fewer brush fires. It’s no wonder our topsoil is so dry.

      1. Fires are in evidence out this way. They were in several other communities earlier this week. Even without snow, brush is dry. Perhaps because of less snow.

      2. Since the top soil dries out in about 24 hours, the amount of snow we had this winter was not a factor at all. The only way it would have been would be in the case of a very late snowfall / snow cover, and then only temporarily.

  26. A friend in Lunenburg just shared a photo of a large and healthy black bear walking through his yard. Hibernation has ended

    1. The record high min is 55 but they will be near that before midnight tonight – still have a shot to break it by a couple degrees.

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