Wednesday April 12 2023 Forecast (7:29AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 12-16)

Our dry stretch of weather with above normal temperatures continues. Today’s temperatures may be down a few degrees over yesterday’s in much of the area due to a slightly cooler air mass moving in behind a cold front, but this is not a strong push of cool and the temperatures will still be above normal, but again along with a gusty breeze, this time from the northwest, keeping brush fire danger quite high. High pressure surface and aloft helps us warm even more tomorrow. This was a day I thought the coast was more vulnerable to a sea breeze, but right now I think the westerly wind may be strong enough to keep that away longer, or even prevent it in some areas (the exception being the limited locations of southeastern New England where the coast is west-facing, like the western shore of outer Cape Cod for example). So, contrary to my previous ideas, Boston does have a shot of hitting 80 on Thursday for the first time this season if the sea breeze is held at bay long enough, or doesn’t develop. While it remains quite warm Friday, coastal areas will be much more vulnerable to sea breeze development, and those areas will be cooler that day. A back-door cold front will then sweep across the region Friday evening or night, putting an end to the warmest weather, and while temperatures will still run above normal over the weekend, it will be a far cry from the summer-like warmth of the previous couple days. We’ll also see more cloudiness arriving Saturday, and especially Sunday as weak low pressure approaches from the south and a low pressure trough approaches from the west

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 62-69 except cooler Outer Cape Cod / Islands. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 45-52. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82, cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 78-85 except significantly cooler in coastal locations. Wind W up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NE.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 60-67, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a shower. Highs 57-64, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 17-21)

Watching a batch of showers for sometime on Patriots Day (April 17) but leaning toward an early-morning timing, leaving a drying westerly wind to follow for the Boston Marathon and Red Sox game, though early morning activities in Lexington / Concord MA may be impacted by wet weather. April 18-21 feature mostly dry weather other than a few showers associated with upper level low pressure early in the period, a cool start then a warming trend.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 22-26)

Eyeing the potential for a more solid rain producing system around mid period with near to below normal temperatures.

69 thoughts on “Wednesday April 12 2023 Forecast (7:29AM)”

  1. Thanks TK !

    I love this weather !!

    Almost an early summer morning out there, 60s !

    More of this !!

    I’m sure we’ll go back to freezing raw New England weather at some point right into May.

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    ONLY got down to 60 here this morning and going back up now.
    We’re currently at 62. LOVE this weather!!!

  3. Thanks TK. :mrgreen:

    Sorry Tom but I guess no Florida temps for your “other” school vacation next week. Oh well. 😉

    1. Yes. 🙂

      Par for the course up here in the Arctic.

      I still expect one more round of ice pellets or flurries at some point the next 3-4 weeks. Also, a couple of 44F drizzly, rain days with a decent NE wind.

      1. Fewer this year, I think, at least of the mid 40s variety.

        The water temp was already anomalously above average.

        With this stretch of well-above normal temps the water temp will rise, also with all the daylight hours. An east or northeast wind won’t feel quite the same.

  11. Q’s: But we started out so warm? Why isn’t it going to be warmer than yesterday?

    A: Cold advection. Exception.. Parts of South Coast with more land breeze today start component off the water yesterday.

    #AppliedMeteorology

    1. Yes, indeedy. STILL VERY NICE! No complaints.
      Up to 67 here. Made 75 here yesterday. Looks like we might
      touch 70 or close to it. How could anyone complain?????

      🙂

  12. It’s Herbie Hancock’s 83rd birthday. Such spring-like sounds emanate from this master. He’s so versatile as a musician. [Even I can appreciate it, and I’m not a jazz fan]

    Here he is on piano performing with the Miles Davis Quintet (1967): https://twitter.com/Diana_Kuegler/status/1645927779668459521

    “Cantaloupe Island” (1974): https://twitter.com/thejazzestate/status/1644423967032188928 – for those of you who listened to “The Connection” with Christopher Lydon in the 1990s (I was an avid listener), you’ll remember his intro to the program was this tune.

    Funky in 1976: https://twitter.com/Birmingham_81/status/1646031201331814400

    1. Don’t forget “Rockit” from the early 1980s.

      I just finished a 2 1/2 hour set of Herbie Hancock music at work.

      Up next: Steppenwolf.

  13. The wind is really strong today. The trees are taking a beating. In Nashua trader Joe’s parking lot a gust took down a big light pole and it landed on this poor woman. I am hoping she’ll make it out okay.

  16. Thanks TK. Definitely noticing the wind today. The chimes are lovely.

    Still couldn’t believe we didn’t drop below 60 last night. I know Eric and Pete and many other Meteorologists to an extent focus on records at night as are just getting shattered annually. Shows the full impact of global
    Warming.

    1. Scary isn’t it. You are right that Eric and Pete are very aware of our influence on the planet.

  18. 70F in Back Bay.

    Magnolias are in full bloom. No longer hesitant to reveal themselves to the world, as they were when it was rather cold at night.

    We do need rain, however. As TK mentioned, the top layers of soil in New England are not very good at `holding’ water. It’s very different from soil in, say, the Netherlands. Even when there’s a water deficit in the Netherlands the soil is mostly black and rather water-laden or at least somewhat moist (even the top layer). And there are virtually no rocks in the soil like there are here. Needless to say, it’s MUCH easier to farm in the Netherlands as a result.

    1. Joshua you and I are just about the same age. I don’t recall so many spring wild fires around SNE. Sure, I didn’t keep up with local news like an adult would but dinner time growing up was spent in the kitchen with tv news on. Did the news stations back then feel wild fires weren’t newsworthy enough?

  20. Very high winds across Ireland and the British isles – gusts over 75mph in some locations, including where my daughter called me from. I couldn’t understand much of what she was saying as it was so windy.

    Here was the forecast for Britain that was posted yesterday. You’ll notice that the meteorologist indicates the storm (Noa) could intensify even more than was modeled. Well, it turned out Noa overperformed. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7OMtANQpfA

    And here’s the way things looked at Heathrow, with planes landing or aborting the landing:
    https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-65257407

  21. Philip, from my youth I do recall some brush fires in early to mid spring, though it was sporadic.

    1. My brother had a scanner and we were always listening to cities and towns responding to brush fires back in the 1970s. In fact if anything there were more back then because of more open space. Today a lot of that open space is taken up by condo complexes. So there has not really been an increase in brushfires. There has, though, been an increase in knowledge of existing fires due to cell phones/cameras and instant communication. This is a common cause of “there’s more now than there used to be”.

      This is a common misconception called “recency bias” when a bunch have happened over the last few days, but that’s because the conditions are perfect for them, so of course there will be “more” during this stretch.

  22. I don’t recall them when young either but I wasn’t as in tune to them. I do recall some nasty ones through hopkinton and Holliston when we had our daughters horse boarded on the line of the two towns. There were a couple of times we had to horses and stand in the outside ring with all of them in case we had to evacuate.

  23. Just heard on 95.9 FM, WATD Marshfield, that they’ve gotten under control a brush fire somewhere in the vicinity of the old exit 4, just south of Plymouth on Rt 3.

    If you’ve ever visited Plymouth plantation, this can be an exit to get there.

    1. Not a good day for that Tom . The wind seemed to drop off I think after blowing all day

  25. I guess I just didn’t connect the dots with the brush fires and “spring” all those years of my youth, even my early college years.

    Sorry, I just don’t recall them growing up. I certainly understand now.

  26. We hit 81. Even toward the center with the wind. Remembering horses are a flight animal, my granddaughter’s lesson was excellent. She did a great job keeping the horse controlled even with the very scary wind ️

  27. From the Mass.gov web page.

    “April is usually the worst month for brush fires. When snow recedes, but before new growth emerges, last year’s dead grass, leaves and wood are dangerous tinder. Winds also tend to be strong and unpredictable in April.”

    Something we hear said by our TV folks like Petey B. & Eric (and others), and of course myself here on the blog. Spring has always been the peak time for these. But there is a secondary peak in the autumn, especially if the pattern is a dry one.

    I think Boston cracks 80 tomorrow but falls shy of the record of 86. Logan will NOT hit 80 on Friday, and pending the timing on the sea breeze, they may fall shy of 70 at the airport. That remains to be seen.

    1. I was never doubting it. I suspect Philip wasn’t either.I know this season I peak as fact. Youth often just are not as aware. Climbing trees and skinning knees and hopscotch are much more important

      1. Yes absolutely. I was always told about that stuff by my older brother because I wasn’t paying attention either. 😉

    1. I don’t think my posts hade gone through as I just found an error . I sent you a long message old salty , how is your wife

    1. Some reports over 20″ now, and a tornado just passed south of Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport. The Airport has been closed for several hours as all the roads in and out are completely flooded.

      2. Officially 22.59″ at KFLL between 3pm and 10pm. Before today, their record record for THREE days was 18.24″ October 19-21, 1924, never mind 1 day.

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