Thursday April 13 2023 Forecast (7:32AM)

169 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 13-17)

A summer preview today as high pressure both surface (to our south) and aloft dominates the weather and allows for a big warm-up with a dry westerly wind. Only areas along the irregular coastline that have a westerly wind off some ocean water first will be cooler (parts of the North Shore, South Coast, and especially outer Cape Cod as well as Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket). Many other locations should reach or exceed 80 for the first time this year. After a warm evening and very mild overnight tonight, it will look like a repeat of today when tomorrow dawns, but a weaker westerly air flow is going to allow for a healthy sea breeze to get going in most coastal areas, keeping it considerably cooler there compared to inland. And to add to that, a back-door cold front is likely to swing through the region anyway from northeast to southwest during the afternoon and evening hours, slowing down as it heads southwestward during the night. This sets up a much cooler day for many areas Saturday, though with a larger temperature spread from coastal areas to furthest inland reaches of the WHW forecast area, but also along with more cloudiness for the area. Low pressure approaching from the south southwest on Sunday will send a band of showers into the region in the pre-dawn hours, but this area of showers is expected to be on the wane, producing the most widespread coverage along the South Coast before fading and fizzling, leaving the region with a broad but weak onshore (easterly) air flow Sunday, mainly cloudy weather, and perhaps a bit of drizzle. Heading into Monday (Patriots Day), low pressure from the west will send a more solid band of rain showers into the region, with timing critical regarding any impact of early festivities regarding the holiday, and of course the Boston Marathon and Red Sox game. Current leaning is later-day / evening for the best rain chance with the bulk of outdoor activities being held before it arrives. Will continue to monitor and update this part of the forecast as necessary…

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 80-87 except 70s portions of North Shore and South Coast, 60s Cape Cod / Islands. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 53-60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84 except significantly cooler in coastal locations. Wind W up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind shifting to NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 60-67, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely South Coast pre-dawn. Lows 46-53. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers mainly early morning. Patchy drizzle favoring the coast. Highs 52-59, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a shower. Lows 45-52.Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, mainly late in the day. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 18-22)

Upper level low pressure hanging around the region may cause a few showers early in the period with somewhat cooler weather expected. Generally fair/seasonable with high pressure in control at mid period. Additional unsettled weather possible toward the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 23-27)

Eyeing the potential for a more solid rain producing system early to mid period with near to below normal temperatures, followed by a drying trend.

169 thoughts on “Thursday April 13 2023 Forecast (7:32AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    So does Logan make 80 tomorrow prior to sea breeze and/or BD front?

    Looks like Logan hits 80 today. most likely anyway.

    Was down to 49 here overnight, but already up to 61.

    1. Some models have Logan at 55 while inland areas are pushing 90!
      Tomorrow Afternoon. If Logan is to hit 80 tomorrow, it best happen as early as possible, else it will NOT happen.

    1. Johsua, I love that you are doing this, but how about letting
      us know which language it is.

      From looking it up, it “appears” to be Czech
      Is that correct? thanks

  7. Up to 68 here and climbing quite rapidly. What time will it hit 80?
    Will there be a sea breeze today? We shall see. Perhaps not, but
    tomorrow WILL be a different story. Along the coast it will feel like we are in the refrigerator!!!!!

      1. I actually would have thought a man invented the miniskirt. If I’m not mistaken, a man did invent/design the bikini. Is that correct? 😉

  10. Put away all my winter items earlier this week – mostly sweaters, which never got worn this `winter,’ but also scarves, gloves, hats, and a coat – and reluctantly but necessarily opened the summer chest of drawers. It’s t-shirt and shorts time again for the next 5 months. If we get a warm fall (my guess is we will) you can tack on another month or so.

  13. The talent factory that is the Rays’ farm system is one of the world’s miracles. If I was an up and coming ballplayer I would want to get drafted by the Rays. There’s got to be some magical stuff going on there in their program.

    1. My oldest insists that everyone’s birthday should be a holiday. Maybe you get to the beach for a bit tonight. Or just sit and enjoy!!

  16. Interesting that Ft Lauderdale exceeded their record rain fall (originally in 3 days) by more than 4 inches, accomplished in 1 day.

  19. 74 here and Logan is up to 75 with WSW at 10 mph.
    Looks like Logan WILL hit 80 and then some today. 🙂

    1. 83 there today.
      71 tomorrow, pre-drop, with a shot this actually occurs at midnight tonight.

      1. Sounds about right. I KNEW NO way they make 80 tomorrow.
        Probably will not here either. I figure 75 or 76 before the fall. 🙂

  21. Vicki, thanks for sending the information on male red-winged blackbirds. They’re quite promiscuous. I wonder if STDs are a problem. Along the Esplanade, their loud, shrill sounds accompany my run. Now I know the harem they’re intended to attract.

    1. Hahahaha. They sure do have loud shrills. I’m not a big fan of them as they chase smaller birds away. But they are interesting.

  22. Philip wrote that he thought a man invented the bikini. He’s right. A Frenchman named Louis Réard unveiled the then “daring two-piece swimsuit” at a popular pool in Paris. He did this in 1946.

  23. JP Dave, during the remaining 21 mornings in which I’ll write “thank you” in all official European Union languages, I will add in parentheses the language I’m using. For example, Qujanaq, TK, means Thank you, TK, in Greenlandic. Now, Greenlandic is not an official European language, but Danish is (just so happens to be tomorrow’s language of the day – tak skal du have, TK). I don’t think we have many Greenlanders who follow the WHW blog, but perhaps we’ll expand internationally if we start using phrases in different languages, like “alveg stórhríð þarna úti,” which means quite a blizzard out there in Icelandic.

  24. Logan is up to 81 with WSW wind at only 6 mph.

    Even 80 here in JP. First time in many months. 🙂

  26. Happy birthday Tom , two different weather apps have it at 82 in pembroke & I do believe it . I just opened windows around the house

  29. While today is very extreme, our Springs really stink temp wise, even when temps are average. Part of it is our geographical location, part is the hemisphere’s heat budget.

    Here are some Boston average high temps and solar max angle throughout the year

    Feb 15th : 34.8F 35.1 degree max sun angle

    March 20th : 46.4F 47.6 degree max sun angle

    Today, 4/13 : 55.5F 56.8 degree max sun angle

    May 15th : 66.2F 66.6 degree max sun angle

    June 20th : 78.2F 71.1 degree max sun angle

    Sept 22nd: 70.9F 47.9 degree max sun angle

    Dec 21st: 40.8F 24.2 degree max sun angle

    That darned cold ocean, snow covered eastern Canada and frozen Hudson Bay.

    From just after the Vernal Equinox until Mid May, the avg high temp along the coast is actually LOWER than the solar noon max sun angle, which is PUTRID !!! (thanks JpDave !!)

    So, thank goodness for occasional April gems like today.

  30. A year ago today was quite warm. It was the day our furnace started spewing CO2. We spent the day outdoors. And didn’t have heat in the house again until fall

    3. That was a WP glitch I think. Two folks here had odd + symbols show up between their multi-word names. You were one of them. I approved that version anyway, just in case.

    2. Norwood is a warm spot, but in the last year or so their thermo has gone 1 to 2 degrees too warm. It’s the same problem many other sensors of this automated equipment have. 88 or 89 more likely the reading when they have a 90 showing. Hopefully they re-calibrate that soon.

  38. Embarrassing `performance’ by Bloom’s Sox in his old stomping ground of Tampa Bay. The Sox are losing their 13th (not a typo) straight at Tampa Bay. It’s also Tampa’s 13th win to open the season – a record if it holds up today (it will, don’t worry). The mostly talentless Red Sox – yet with a still very large payroll – are being clinically dismantled by a much better team, up and down the roster. Roster construction isn’t easy, but Bloom seems to have botched it big time. When the guys he gives up on, like Springs (pitching for Tampa today) and Cordero (hitting homers for the Yankees), are doing well, and his acquisitions are either injured for very long periods of time (Story and Duvall) or washed up (Turner, among others) it’s a massive problem.

    1. This is most certainly not unprecedented. The 1976 April hot spell lasted 5 days. This one will last 1 for the coast, 2 for the interior. No match for ’76. 😉

        1. I don’t agree that it’s too warm too soon. It’s just part of what we get, and I love it. 🙂 Sat outside with mom and brother for a few after they got back from rehab visit today. 🙂 At this time tomorrow it’ll be at least 20 degrees cooler than this and going down where I am. Although that’s still really nice to me too because I just simply love it all. 🙂

          Bleeding heart flowers are coming up in the back yard! My dad planted those. 🙂

  45. Topped out at 88 here in Woburn. Very nice summer preview. Ironically I’ve recorded hotter temps in March before. This was also a whopping 8 degrees cooler than my high of 96 on Easter Sunday 1976, equalled the next day on Patriots Day. THAT was serious heat for this time of year.

    Meanwhile, the beat goes on with more below normal temps out West and in much of the northern Rockies to Plains, and that stays the same through the 6-10 then expands through the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest heading into week 2, while the warm anomalies shrink up significantly. Enjoy the warmth now, because it’s short-lived and cooler times are ahead!! 🙂

  46. Looks like Boston’s record high of 86, set in 1977, is safe by 1 degree, with a reported high of 85 today.

    Tomorrow’s record would have fallen had it been today, but that won’t fall either.

  47. Our 91 temp is higher than other areas nearby. But we are 91. Or were. Have not looked I’m always fascinated by how different close areas can be. We sure saw it with that last snow.

    https://imgur.com/a/4uu6zRm

    Correction. We just jumped to 92

    1. Common to see the jump late day (5PM-6PM). You were probably right on the edge of that local sea breeze.

      Tomorrow at this time you’ll be over 20 degrees cooler with a FRESH northeasterly breeze. Get ready!

  50. I just had somebody tell me the humidity was brutal today……….

    HAHAHA … Yes, those dew points in the 40s were OPPRESSIVE! 😉

    Sorry, but it’s NOT humid, at all. Numbers don’t lie. 🙂

  52. I, too, had a + in between my screen name earlier this week.

    Tom, ready for a Spring Break???!!!! 🙂

    1. Ah yes it was you! I knew somebody else had the + show up. I have no idea how that happened.

  53. Hartford busted 90 today and may touch it tomorrow, but here’s a look back at an actual April heatwave there…

    The year, 1976.
    April 17: 92
    April 18: 95
    April 19: 96
    Two of those would be record-challengers in MID SUMMER.

  54. Vicki ~ I am so sorry! I asked you yesterday about that sonic boom.

    I totally forgot to reply! The reason is that I read a story about an asteroid that caused a boom in Maine last Saturday. It was also picked up on radar.

    While it wasn’t “your” boom in Sutton, maybe it was another, smaller piece of asteroid that caused the sound.

    1. Thank you Captain. Beyond Interesting that an asteroid and a sonic boom occurred around our boom

  57. I remember BDL having a heat wave April 16 17 and 18 back in 2002. That year had 35 days of 90 or higher.

  59. Happy Birthday, Tom!

    It’s 87F in Back Bay on April 13th. That’s warm, though not unprecedented, as TK points out.

    By the way, mid April 1976 was warm – I remember the Boston Marathon well from that year; lots of runners had serious problems with the heat – AND early to mid July 1976 was hot.

  61. TK, you made a good point about the baseball games being shorter. I don’t have to agonize as long about Red Sox losses. It’s sort of like ripping the band-aid off, rather than slowly removing it. Losing 9-3 in well under 3 hours is a helluva lot better than losing 9-3 in a 4 hour slow-motion torture fest.

    Glenn Ordway used to mimic callers on WEEI – this is back in 1997 when the Sox had a down year – who would say “the Sox are ruining my summah” [Ordway would imitate a Boston accent, hence summah and not summer] Now, my summer isn’t ruined by the Sox not being competitive. But, summer would be better if the Sox would be competitive.

    1. The Red Sox could lose every single game they play and they wouldn’t “ruin my summah”, and I’m a fan, but that’s funny. 🙂 Glen was humorous on air. 🙂

  63. Boston jumped to 88 and established a record high thanks to the “six o’clock jump”. Todd Gross was spot on when he came up with that years ago on Ch. 7. 🙂

  64. From Eric Fisher
    Seabreeze died…Boston just jumped to 88F! New record high for the date.

    1. Always have to watch out for that. It’s a forecast EXPLODER. 😉

      So you can erase the report of 85 earlier. 😉

      Also an interesting note: Nashua NH touched 90 twice today. Both times it was during a period of time when the west wind had picked up to 10-15 MPH, downsloping off 2 hills west of the airport. When the wind slackened, the temp was down a degree to 89, then back to 90 when it picked up again.

  65. According to authorities, that Ft. Lauderdale rainfall was a “once in a thousand year” event.

    Much like Boston’s odds of having a White Christmas at times. ❄️ ❄️ 😉

    1. I will never like “one in 50”, “one in 100”, “one in 1000”. There’s NO WAY to tell. They could technically have events like that 2 years in a row and then never again, or in 5 years, or 500, or 2,500, or any other configuration. You simply cannot apply those kinds of numbers to things like that when we have only been recording weather accurately for such a limited time in comparison. How do we know that 500 years ago there wasn’t an event that produced twice that amount there? Or 25 miles away from there? Or 150 miles away from there? There’s too much variability to put such concrete labels on such things. I’ll never buy into it. I never have, and I never will.

      Let me give you one example that’s very relevant to the area…

      Boston, breaks 24 hour snowfall record on January 20 1978 – a record that stood for 30 years. So you figure, maybe another several decades before we have a shot to break it again there. Nope. 17 days. There is too much chaos involved to put such hard labels on those kinds of statistics.

      2. I heard 1 in 1000 from a few different sources. My sense it means it just hasn’t happened in the past since we don’t know what happened 1000 years ago

  66. According to Wankum Pembroke hit 90 . I do believe it , house is warm tonight & all the windows are open . I’m not putting on the A/C

    1. I see 89 on one of Pembroke stations. But didn’t look hard. They have AC on upstairs. I don’t need it but fans are running

  67. JJ…

    Hartford CT, April 16-18 2002, 3-day heatwave with highs of 90 95, and 92. And this note. One month later, on May 18 2002, it snowed there. 😉

    Volatility is part of our weather, and especially so in the spring. 🙂

  68. A colleague of mine is writing a summary of the Florida rainfall event. It was a very unique set of circumstances that lead to it. Basically a stationary supercell thunderstorm. Elaboration to come.

  69. Thanks for the Birthday wishes.

    I seem to remember one in the mid 70s that was this warm.

    Also think I remember a few flurries on another one and a couple with left over snow piles from late March / early April snow falls.

  70. https://radar.weather.gov/station/KAMX/standard

    They’ve gotten hit again !

    The one over the ocean, east of them went right through an hour or so ago and now they are getting more moderate rain.

    With 20+ inches yesterday, that re-flooded areas that had finally receded and further set back areas that hadn’t seen the water fully recede.

      2. Same low pressure area. Similar set-up with stationary convergence boundary that just happens to be right in the same place and just so happens to be a high population area, hence the impact level.

  71. It’s not raining in Baltimore, but for some reason I thought of Adam Duritz’s classic song, Raining in Baltimore (Counting Crowes). It’s been a difficult and at times emotional year (since last summer) for me and I’m sure many of us. Duritz expresses this like very few can. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gEnCxGh8kBg

    3. That album is filled with gems. I just listened to Round Here for the first time in a while. It still has the same effect on me.

  72. Correction from my post above: Meteors or meteorites, Vicki, not asteroids! Yikes! That indeed would be serious! 🙂 I really need a break! 🙂

    1. Ohhhh. Good point. There was a jeopardy question tonight that had me second guessing myself also. Thank you

  73. Hockey Note: Pittsburgh Penguins will miss the NHL playoffs for the first time since 2006. And for anybody who may have been under a rock since October, the Boston Bruins will not miss the playoffs. 😉

      1. That reminds me if a song by James Taylor off his “New Moon Shine” album. It’s the second track on the album, “Down In The Hole” and was not released as a single, but it’s one of my favorite songs on the album. 🙂

        Light and love
        And the world above
        Mean nothing to the mole
        Don’t mean nothing to the mole

        Never gets real hot down here
        Fifty five degrees
        It’s always a little bit damp I fear
        But I’ve never seem to freeze

        Mushrooms and earthworms
        Fancy stuff to eat
        A world of quiet contemplation oh yes
        Just below the street

        Down in the hole
        Lord, it’s deep and the sides are steep
        And the nights are long and cold
        Down in the hole

        Light and love
        And the world above
        It’s all nothing to the mole

        Those are only some of the lyrics, which are largely metaphoric as the song is actually about how he feels after the end of a relationship. Off-beat breakup song. 🙂

  74. Note about Nashua NH’s 90 degree high temp.
    The temp sensor is alongside an asphalt runway.
    While the temp spike at the airport was legit due to the west wind off the hills, I suspect their actual temp was 1 or 2 degrees lower. This has become an issue with relocated sensors in many areas in recent years. Official temperatures are not supposed to be taken under the influence of asphalt.

  75. Gotta love Spring in New England! 89F on the house thermometer earlier as we packed the ski stuff in the car to head up to Sugarloaf Maine tonight. Sugarloaf actually increased their trail count from 120 to 130 today as the snow softened up 🙂

  76. It was 90 F on the car thermometer earlier as we passed through Lowell. Dropped to 70 in Hampton and then 60 by the time we hit York.

  77. I heard the Bruins and Maple Leafs are the active leaders with the making the playoffs now for seven straight seasons. Capitals streak of eight straight seasons making the playoffs was snapped this year.

  78. Concord nh topped at 90. Bow 85. Hooksett 89, Manchester 88, derry 90, center Conway 85, NH nat forest 88, oquossoc ME 72…..

    JPD. Sweetest salmon in mooselookmeguntic lake in oquossoc

    1. You truly have to love Mother Nature.

      A friend in Lunenburg was just shy of 90 today. Last bit of snow in his yard melted earlier this week

  80. Hurricanes lead the Panthers, 2-0, after two. If that score holds up, the Bruins play Florida in the first round, I believe. Playoffs start Monday???

  81. Playoffs start Monday.
    My remote is going to be getting a workout if the Rangers and Knicks are playing at the same time early next week. Saturday is perfect Yankees at 1pm Knicks at 6pm.

  82. I’ve seen some 75F predictions for Boston tomorrow.

    But …. at 9pm, Logan is 83F.

    If Logan holds a land breeze to midnight, it could be 78F or 79F at midnight and that’s going to lock that number in as tomorrow’s high temp.

  83. The “rain threats” are looking more and more like “non events” heading through the holiday weekend.

  85. Hurricanes held on…thank god the islanders don’t have to face the bruins in the first round!

  88. Heat? Was someone talking about heat? Vostok, Antarctica just dropped to -97, coldest temperature on the planet so far in 2023.

    https://twitter.com/ThierryGooseBC/status/1646695386135007232

    BTW, those 1-in-100, 1-in-1000 year events (I hate the term too), nobody understands what that actually means. If something is called a 1-in-500 year event, that means that your odds of having it happen in any year are 1-in-500. Yes, it could happen, and it could happen more than once in a single year, but the odds of it happening are remote, similar to the odds of Chaim Bloom still being employed by the Red Sox in October unless things turn around.

    1. If you divide the planet up into a series of points that makes up square mile blocks, and track the weather in each of them, the amount of 1-in-1000 year events would be rather significant every year. The events are far more common than media makes it sound.

    2. Yikes. That is a tad nippy. I did some reading and learned as the highest point in Antarctica it is the coldest area and its normal temps are bone chilling. Hard to imagine that isn’t far off its average temp for this month. Sadly, Antarcticas temp has risen nearly 3 degrees C in the last five decades. Doesn’t sound like a lot but is above the global mean by five times.

      https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/antarctica

  89. 65 wins.
    The Bruins won 65 of 82 games this season.
    The next team in the standings won 52 games (actually 2 teams, Carolina & NJ).
    That’s insane.
    But, other than seeding, the # of wins means nothing now.
    There are 2 games tomorrow night to end the regular season, but neither game can change anything about the post-season as only one of the 4 teams in action are in the playoffs and I don’t believe their position can be altered with the game’s outcome.

    Everybody starts 0-0 when the puck drops on the playoffs.

  90. Wind shift from W to SSW at Logan has dropped the temp by 8 degrees in the past hour. Down to 75. Whatever they are at midnight will be their Friday high temp. They won’t get back to that before the wind goes onshore.

  91. The Patriots lost 4 games in regulation at home this past season.
    The Bruins lost 4 games in regulation at home this past season.

  92. From 12:40 to 1:10 am, after Logan’s wind switched back to west, the temp briefly rose back to 77F. I believe that’s the current high.

    Btwn 5:40 and 6:05 am this morning, the wind came around almost due S off the harbor and they quickly dropped to 64F.

    The wind went back west and now they sit at 73F at 7am.

    1. I see no reason why Boston won’t be able to at least reach the record high of 81 (1945) with such a high launching pad. We’ll see.

      1. Well, the 1 reason would be any kind of wind shift prior to it hitting 81F. 🙂

        We’ll see.

        If it doesn’t turn prior to say, 11am, then I agree with you !!

  93. I’m interested to see when that turn to a more significant coastal breeze today begins today.

    I can see the Isle of Shoals ob off the NH Seacoast and 2 obs out in the Gulf of Maine have land breezes at the moment.

  94. Hockey note: I heard on the morning news that Florida has beaten the Bruins “multiple” times during the regular season. Exact words.

    Should we be concerned?

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