Warmer. How Warm?

44 Comments

2:38AM

High pressure builds over New England with dry weather and a warming trend through Saturday. A disturbance will cross the region Sunday with a shower threat, though it will still be mild. The question then becomes, what happens with a front to the north versus high pressure to the south, as we get into Monday (Patriots Day / Boston Marathon day)? Yesterday, I was leaning toward a quicker frontal passage and a cooler solution. At the moment I’m leaning a little warmer. Beyond this, the warm air may try to hang on through Tuesday before a cool-down takes place during the middle of next week.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. High from the upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low from the middle 30s to lower 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny through mid afternoon then increasing high clouds late day. High in the upper 60s to around 70, cooler some coastal areas. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: AM showers. Low 51. High 70.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 54. High 80.

TUESDAY: Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 57. High 74.

WEDNESDAY: Chance of showers. Low 51. High 64.

THURSDAY: Chance of rain/drizzle. Low 45. High 54.

44 thoughts on “Warmer. How Warm?”

  1. TK, could you further explain why there have been all these variations for Mon’s temps. This week I have seen a 25 degree forecast disparity for Mon, though many mets are now coming around to an 80+ solution.

  2. Longshot it has to do with a cold front that is in Northern NE, it looks to stay accross Maine through Tuesday where earlier there some indications it would through.

  4. Longhsot are you still thinking about the trip? I have some big discount for May and June date if you are interested!

  5. Does something not seem right about this?

    CHICOPEE, MASS (WGGB) — Chicopee Police along with Massachusetts State Police are currently involved in a standoff

    The scene is near the intersections of West Street, Center Street, and Hampden Street in downtown Chicopee.

    Gunfire was heard exchanged with at least one shooter on West Street.

    At one point, an ABC40 reporter on scene says that State Police are currently hiding behind a gas tanker in front of the Shell Station there, firing back at the shooter. At least one state trooper has been shot in the leg. One other person was also shot.

    An 8 year old boy has also been rescued from the scene.

    Two area schools are on lockdown, including the Patrick E Bowe School and Holyoke Catholic High School.

    The neighborhood is being evacuated.

    Watch ABC40 for live coverage.

    http://www.wggb.com/2012/04/13/gunfire-erupts-on-west-street-in-chicopee/?p1=News_links

  6. I was surprised to see that to this point in April, in spite of the fairly cloudy weather and that most of the days, the air mass has been coming out of southeastern Canada, that the four major reporting climo stations were still averaging 1 to 2 F above normal. Now with the expected highs of Saturday thru Tuesday, with again some daily departures likely to be in the +20F or greater range, I think mathematically at least, April is on its way to being another above avg month temp wise.

  7. nice first half of the vacation week. with temps in the 70s and even some low 80s now looking possible. Late week coastal storm/ nor-easter??….possible…. much needed rain just wish that i would come before or after vacation temps will be in the 50s and low 60s lows will be in the 40s in general for most of the week besides for sunday night with lows in the 60s.

    1. On another note, I had to take a trip down the Cape this morning for work and it was a nice ride over the bridge (despite the Sagamore being down to one lane each way). Seeing the fishing boats heading up the canal makes me look forward to the nice weather!

    2. Thanks Sue – I need java to run 🙁 and am not sure how Firefox likes that. Will have to look into it this weekend because I know my grandson will love it. Hehehehe I will to 🙂

  9. The forecast for tomorrow out in the plains is pretty incredible. I believe that it is the second time ever that a High Risk has been issued for a day 2 forecast. If you have friends/family in central Kansas and Oklahoma make sure that they know where to go if they need shelter. Tons of chasers will be out there and the NWS has issued a challenge to them to try and get out enough warnings so that no lives are lost. There’s a line from Salina and Wichita Kansas down to Oklahoma City where the risk is greatest. And much of the activity is expected to be after nightfall, which compounds the danger. The live streams tomorrow should be fascinating, head to chasertv.com to watch things unfold live.

    1. Thanks! Sounds exciting but at the same time scary. I really am hoping and praying that no one gets hurt and there is no damage. Funny how these things can be so exciting yet at the same time you don’t want them to happen. We will be out w/friends tomorrow night but I will try to watch when I get a chance.

  10. The 00z EURO shows more of a southerly wind component on Monday, which would limit how high the temps would go. There will be a tight temp gradient along the coast.

  12. April will be above normal temp wise, also with ocean temps between 50-55 degrees sea breezes are tolerable, not that I go to the town pool but they will be opening the town pools on the Sat of Memorial day weekend the 26th of May for now on,, they have opened it every year on June 22nd for 40 yrs, I guess it’s good news, they said instead of being open for 73 days they will now be open for 108 days, they use to close on Aug 31st now they will close Sun Sept 16th

  13. I don’t know what the 12z EURO will show, but I don’t think a lot of rain is coming next week. Maybe showers on cold front passages and from warm advection associated with warm frontal approaches or passages. While bad for the drought, the weather is looking very hopeful for vacation week and even a day of summer Monday. 🙂

      1. I think yesterday and even Wednesday, the models were showing an opportunity for a good rainfall middle to end of next week. Today, I think they are showing a mid to late week cool day, but not a lot of rain. That’s how I’m interpreting it anyway. 🙂

  14. Hadi, I am having trouble corralling everyone for the trip. I am beginning to wonder if it not happen til 2013.

  16. Possible tornado – maybe rain-wrapped approaching Norman, OK. I am watching TWC. They now have what they call Tornado Central. Is this the sign of the times? Severe weather becoming more common? I wonder.

    1. they also have the winter authority and hurricane so i just think its an addition to it. not to mention it can mean more jobs .

  17. went kayaking it was a nice 2 hour trip. there was a rise in water level but dock one is still bone dry.

  18. the areas to the west of Norman, OK . Also at carnegie Ok the storms in these areas look like they are really strong and could produce tornadoes ?

    1. really do not know how to look at t-storms and know what i should be looking for exactly in order to see if a tornado might be forming

      1. matt – glad you had a good time kayaking!

        As far as how to look at thunderstorms and looking to see if a tornado is forming – on the doppler radar, if you look at the storm cell (usually the storm has lots of reds in the coloring, there is an area where you can see a hook developing. I think it has to do with the dry area just before it. But there usually is a hook echo. And if it is a big tornado, sometimes on the radar just before the tornado there might be what looks like a ball of precip. which might be a debris ball. Please understand that I am just an amateur, matt – other people here will prob’ly explain it better! If you are wondering what to look for in a thunderstorm in the sky – I think the best bet is to see if there is a low-hanging cloud (wall cloud) and if it is rotating, there prob’ly is a tornado in it. Even if a funnel develops, it isn’t a tornado until it touches the ground.

        I hope I helped, matt .

    2. It’s possible that they could produce tornadoes – but tornadoes cycle. That means that they can weaken but pick up strength again.

  19. Look for a hook echo like rain shine said. Usually on the backside of the thunderstorm. Sometimes they are wrapped in rain, often times not. Im from Oklahoma city, lived there for 30 years. The nets in ok city have radar at the stations that are as good or better than the NWS. They can pin point a tornado down to a block.

    1. The hook u see on Doppler is really a wind signature. It looks like a hook since your seeing wind coming into the radar and then away from it. Your actually seeing the circulation. Think of the Doppler looking at a cross section of the storm horizontally. They do have Doppler that can look at the storm in a vertical cross section too. The nets in ok city can forecast a tornado within a few hundred feet. I kinda laugh at the guys up here last june. They had people scared in Lowell of the funnel in monsen. People up here aren’t used to real thunderstorms and tornados. I’m not downplaying the ones we had here last June, but that was childs play to what I’ve seen. Unless one is right on top of you, or to your southwest, we don’t get too excited. Only time. You really worry is if u can see it moving on the ground. It means it’s coming right at you.

  20. Tornadoes are not becoming more common. Stats may indicate that from time to time but that makes sense when you combine the following: the post-Twister storm chase craze, cell phone cameras, and web cams just about everywhere. Many were missed before.

    “Tornado Central” is just TWC using something catchy. We have pretty much everything central in the media.

    Allergy-Central anyone?

    1. 🙂

      You are right, TK! I guess I got caught up in the “media excitement”.

      Allergy-Central is where I have been for the past few wks.! 🙂

      1. And you are right. We have so much more ways of getting info. Big improvements from even 5 yrs. ago.

    2. I agree but u should tell that to the weather channel, it seems like every other week there talking about how we’ve never had these many and seem to talk tornado records weekly 🙂

      2. I normally don’t trash talk, but sometimes I think TWHC would suit them better (The Weather Hype Channel).

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