Friday April 14 2023 Forecast (7:22AM)

164 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 14-18)

Our preview of summer gets kicked out the door by a back-door cold front and ocean wind that arrives from northeast to southwest during today, but it will be late enough in arrival away from the coast so that we do see one more day of summer-like warmth there. As is often the case, the back-door front will not be accompanied by any precipitation, in fact, the front won’t even carry any clouds with it, as we just have a canopy of high level clouds drifting across our sky, filtering the sun and giving the sky a hazier look to accent the lingering summertime feel ahead of the front. We do see more cloudiness over the weekend as finally some low level moisture increases the cloud coverage on Saturday along with the approach of a weak low pressure system from the south, bringing a rain shower chance later Saturday to early Sunday – though this doesn’t look too widespread. By Sunday, the cloud deck will be more solid and we’ll end up cooler than Saturday, still coolest in coastal areas and a little less so over the interior. A larger scale low pressure trough will be approaching from the west as the weekend goes on. While surface low pressure is destined to pass well to our northwest on Monday, a cold front will sweep through the region from west to east, but the timing is late enough so that Patriots Day events in Lexington/Concord, the Boston Marathon, and Red Sox games should occur with generally rain-free conditions, just a mainly cloudy sky. A band of showers will then come through from later in the day through the evening, exiting to the east overnight, and setting up a return to dry weather Tuesday with a gusty westerly wind setting in.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77 coast and 78-85 inland during the morning, with a sharp cooling trend coast by midday and slower cooling trend inland during the afternoon. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to E 5-15 MPH from northeast to southwest with higher gusts in coastal locations.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind shifting to NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 60-67, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers overnight. Lows 46-53. Wind E-NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers mainly early morning. Patchy drizzle favoring the coast. Highs 52-59, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 45-52.Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, mainly late in the day. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Lows 48-55. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 58-65. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 19-23)

Other than a mid-period trough passage with a shower chance, high pressure dominates with mainly dry weather and mostly seasonable, though somewhat variable temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 24-28)

Trend is cooler and more unsettled for the later days of April with a trough of low pressure dominating the Northeast.

164 thoughts on “Friday April 14 2023 Forecast (7:22AM)”

    1. If I recall, the February week was pretty good by February standards. This one somewhat miserable by April standards. 😉

  4. Thanks TK. :mrgreen:

    Hockey note: I heard on the tv morning news that Florida has beaten the Bruins “multiple” times during the regular season. Exact words.

    Should there be concern for an upset? Did they sweep the Bruins?

    2. The Bruins went 2-1-1 against them this season. The OT loss was a complete meltdown in the final seconds of the game and opening seconds of OT. You should always be concerned in the playoffs because anything can happen, but for me, I’d put the odds of Florida winning the series at roughly the same as Chris Sale winning the Cy Young this season.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    With yesterday’s heat we had INSTANT tree foliation.
    Funny to look out this morning and see all the trees with tiny little leaves on them. 🙂

    1. Well, I wouldn’t say “all” the trees. Many are still dormant here in the city anyway. 🙂

      1. Not in my neighborhood. Every tree I look at has leaves, albeit little tiny ones, but they ARE there. 🙂

  6. Logan up to 75 and on a rapid temperature rise.
    Wind NW at 10 mph. It’s a race to the BD from and/or sea breeze to halt the rise. HOW High will it go before it plummets?????

    1. That looks like a pretty potent BD from well on the move and should be sliding by the area sooner rather than later. We shall see exactly when. I should be able to Smell exactly when it
      goes through here. 🙂

  8. Tak skal du have, TK [Danish; something tells me this is a very formal way of saying thank you – maybe it’s what say to the clerk at the RMV after he’s finally helped you get your license plate]

  10. Isle of Shoals off the NH Seacoast currently with a SW wind gusting to 16 mph.

    Its (wind shift) going to be a little while yet at Logan.

    1. Front, I believe is just northeast of Matinicus Rock ob in the Gulf of Maine, which is east-northeast of Portland, ME.

      This obs wind was SW only a couple of hours ago and is now NNW. Everything just northeast of it, has a northeast wind.

      I use http://www.wrh/obs and then, scroll east to New England. (I’m sure there is an easier way) 🙂

  13. Here is the 00z GFS for the last week of April and some of its projected temps at 18z (Of course we’re going to pay for this week)

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfct-imp&rh=2023041400&fh=282&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfct-imp&rh=2023041400&fh=306&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfct-imp&rh=2023041400&fh=330&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfct-imp&rh=2023041400&fh=354&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Looks like it might be somewhat blocked up in the Atlantic, stalling a low to our north. At least the stall low would be north of us and not underneath us, which would be a lot worse.

    Mid 50s the last week of April ???? Dreadful !!!

    1. Of course!!! It’s Spring in New England. What did you expect????
      🙂 🙂 🙂

      Remember, it’s the GFS.

      1. That’s the hope 🙂

        However, neutral to slightly negative NAO projection has me thinking the GFS won’t make a big flop like it just recently did.

  15. Sanford, ME (southwest inland Maine) and Cape Elizabeth, Maine (on the coast btwn Kennebunk and Portland) now have NE winds.

  16. Rob Gilman on WATD this morning said that Middleborough and Carver had a 50-degree swing yesterday, 42º to 92º!

    1. Perfectly timed Captain for my 6th grade math curriculum.

      Started data and analysis unit this week and one of the measures is range 🙂 🙂 🙂

      Have a great vacation !!!!

  18. Thank you, TK

    JPD, how is Mrs OS?

    I mentioned yesterday I think that I was seeing green in some trees. It was mostly on the bottom branches. Yesterday as JPD mentioned the foliage really bloomed. Green all through the trees with signs of flowers in our flowering pear trees. Nature truly is amazing

  19. 81F, 81F ……

    Do I hear 85F ????

    85F anyone ?

    Beautiful day here, 85F …. Going once, twice ..,,

    2. 80 here in JP. I was hoping it would not make 80.
      The house was very uncomfortable last evening, even with
      ALL the windows open. Did NOT install any ACs. TOO MUCH Cold weather ahead for that.

      1. Our house was super warm and stuffy late yesterday afternoon, into the evening.

        About 9pm, I had had enough and we put the AC on, while keeping the windows open, for about 20 minutes just to cool it off a few degrees.

    1. The summit of Mt Washington is 46F and 60.1 at 4,000 ft (still quite warm aloft) and now we’re headed for the strongest 4 hrs of sun during the day.

      Of course, a wind change off the ocean will lower the temp some, but I think its really going to need to crank to have a dramatic effect on the temps prior to 2 or 3 pm and as you said just above, who knows how high it will get to ?

    1. That would be a new record! 🙂

      The tv mets even this morning were hesitant but I had a good feeling with such a high temperature first thing.

      1. Aren’t a guarantee of what? reaching the record? whatever that is?
        Light winds means a flip to sea breeze could happen at any moment.

        1. AND there it is! Logan wind has shifted to the EAST
          at only 6 mph. Marshfield ENE wind at 10 mph.

          I don’t know if this is just a natural sea breeze OR
          if the BD front has slipped Southward along the coast as it often does. Either way, it WILL be cooler along the coast.

  24. If Logan did indeed hit 82, that would be a new record.

    Old record 81F (1945)

    I get the impression that 1945 had a very warm spring?

    1. 1945 is the 8th warmest Spring on record in Boston, 6th warmest in Worcester, 4th warmest at Blue Hill, and 2nd warmest at Providence.

    1. Just saw that. What is the record for today?

      I’m up to my ears in calling for services for my brother and apologize as I’m sure it has been posted here already.

      JPD I am so sorry that Mrs OS is still struggling. I was worrying the heat yesterday might make things worse. Sending positive thoughts that she turns the corner soon

  26. Sometimes when you have a backdoor cold front in mid April, it plummets to 50F or even under in Portland, ME and its in the low-mid 50s in southern interior Maine.

    So far, not happening.

    Its still 79F in Portland, ME

    Its just going to take til mid or late afternoon and need a 15 mph wind or greater for the marine layer to really do its thing.

  28. We’ve made it to 84 in JP, but I think that the wind
    has just shifted to NNE or NE, but light. We shall see if
    this stops the temperature rise or at least slows it.

  32. In the very short term, we might be witnessing the sea breeze vs the more vigorous back door front.

    If its just the light seabreeze, no chance with a very light wind, now high midday sun angle and warm airmass above.

  33. OF course, look at GLOUCESTER !!!

    NE at 10, gusting to 17 mph.

    Temp went from 81F to 59F.

    There’s the back door front.

    1. Rockport, at the same time, to its north is 74F with a lighter NE wind, so its still somewhat localized.

      1. Beverly went from 80F at 11:05 am to 64F at 12:05 pm, but again, it looks localized when comparing to some locations around it.

        Pretty neat !!

          1. Yes, sorry about that.

            Its a site SAK posted months ago. I didn’t save it and use http://www.wrh/obs and it gives obs for southern California. Then, I slowly move east. You have to slowly move east to allow the temps to load. It works if you enter that site into your search engine.

      1. Getting there.

        I think now, it will be a more noticeable change, where if it had happened earlier before it got so warm again, the temp change wouldn’t have been as dramatic.

        Maybe another 30 mins to 1 hr at Logan, maybe 1.5 to 2 hrs in JP ?? But when it happens, I think you’ll drop from upper 80s to say mid 70s pretty quickly.

  34. Thanks, TK.

    85 degrees in Sudbury? Light breeze all over the place. Guess I’m still too far inland for cold front. Bright sun and light blue sky. This back door cold front acting a bit strange. Back in the day, (1980’s or so) I remember when back door cold fronts came in actively. No thunder. Just skies darkened and wind really picked up as they shifted to NE.

    JP Dave, sending Mrs. OS prayers and hoping she starts recovering soon. Maybe cold front bringing cooler air will help.

    2. Got it. Thanks. Very similar to Meso West. But MesoWest
      does not have Gloucester. So Tom for the Win!!!

      2. Just double click on the region your interested in, it will zoom in and in doing so, will give you more temps in the localized region.

  40. All of Boston’s interior suburbs are 87-88F, even 89F right now.

    So, a large majority of the Massachusetts population is experiencing another very warm/hot day.

    2. Today we get a good example of how asphalt skews temp readings.

      When the sensor was in a more accurately representative place, that didn’t happen.

  43. Ahhhh, now the wind is cranking at Logan, 20 mph gusts I believe.

    Now that 47F ocean has a chance.

    Still 79F in Portland, ME

  44. Ahhhhhhh….. myself

    Down to 77 here in JP
    72 at Logan.

    Wind is blowing curtains out straight on all East facing windows in the house!!!!! AHHHH NICE!!!

    Supposed to have a pork roast for dinner tonight. NOT happening UNLESS the kitchen cools down considerably in the next 2-3 hours. 🙂

    1. It’s because the wind shifts to east does not mean it’s going to immediately be that chilly there.

      The wind just shifted and it was already hot. It’s still being 91 is not unusual at all if it was already that hot and the wind just shifted.

      That particular tweet makes it sound like that shouldn’t happen. Not sure if that’s what he intended but that’s what it sounds like.

      In fact, in this particular set-up Bradley is more likely to still be hot with an east wind then they would be if the wind was from the south. Think of the proximity to the ocean with regard to both directions…

  52. Down to 73 here, but house has only gone from 84 to 81.
    Kitchen is an even 80. Not looking good for pork roast in the oven.

  55. From Ryan Hanrahan
    Staggering. 96F in Windsor Locks breaks the daily record by 14F and ties the record for warmest April day. At 3 p.m Windsor Locks was the warmest spot in the entire United States.

    1. 30 degree drop from my neck of the woods. Kids are going to be in for a rude awakening when we arrive at Logan later. They were warned. 🙂

  58. That 96 matches the highest April temperature on record for BDL. It was part of a heat wave in 1976 which TK mentioned yesterday.

  59. Ryan also mentioned the highest temperature in 2022 at BDL was 97. Today they hit 96. Hopefully not an omen to a hot summer.

  61. Drove from Boston to Fort Myers. Temp is 85; mostly sunny; and slight breeze. Had to get away from the BD cold front. 🙂

    1. That is one heck of a trip to get away from a cold front. I think you just set a record. Have fun and safe travels

    1. Even managed 65-70F here at sugarloaf. Great spring skiing day and spectacular views towards Katahdin to the NE and Mt Washington to the SW. Actually got a bit hazy in the PM and the visibility decreased a bit.

      Still 2-3 feet of natural snow on the ground here and wall to wall coverage throughout the mountain. Though the base area was getting a bit wet and slushy by the end of the day 🙂

  63. Satellite pics of the Great Lakes shows the ice has all melted. Maybe a couple of weeks ahead of schedule.

  64. We went to Hampton Beach today, arriving at about noon. I watched the car thermometer drop from 89 to 64 over the last few miles to the beach.

    There was quite a crowd there, but with the tide low, there was plenty of room for our walking.

  65. The little mini inland hot spell is coming to an end. At least this one came without high humidity, unlike the 1976 event which was stronger and longer-lasting in all aspects. This one was a little more on par with the 2002 event.

    I’m not a fan of NWS’s wording on the upcoming unsettled weather. Actually I don’t like the way they word their zone forecasts anymore. They’re more confusing than they used to be. Less “user-friendly” wording which renders them nearly useless, but I don’t think many people read those anyway. It’s all app/icon for weather, which comes with its own set of issues.

    As far as my thoughts on our weather…

    No big changes, really no changes at all to above.
    Limited rainfall – few showers Saturday night & Sunday morning. Most Monday rain holds off until the end of the day, and that system doesn’t look impressive to me. After that it’s back to a dry stretch – cool at first, then moderating.

    Tree leaf-out is generally near to slightly behind last year’s. Some of that has to do with drought stress. In fact, many of the flowering trees may have fewer blossoms this season as a result of the previous drought. Same thing happened in 2017 after the 2016 drought.

    I’ve a very busy weekend ahead – will try to pop on here when I can. Updates should be posted at normal times though. Have a good weekend!

    1. This particular air mass did not have the punch that the 2002 heat-ender did. It was more of a gradual drop.

      And my high temp was a few degrees hotter in the 2002 event than this one. This one was kind of a “meh” April hot spell, a little less in scope but comparable to 2002 and pales in comparison to 1976. That one was the benchmark of April hot spells. This one was wimpy in comparison, even with several record high temps busted. It stayed bone dry. The 1976 one carried humidity and mid summer temps.

      2. I have no idea. I know Romney and Kissinger did but just saw it posted on Belmont FB page that he did

    1. That doesn’t look much different than the L-Street Brownies in Southie take their annual New Years Day plunge for charity.

  69. Boston hit 83 for a new record high, as I figured they would. The tip-off should have been the very warm temperatures to start off this morning. I don’t understand why the tv mets wouldn’t take the bait. They insisted to keep temperatures in Boston just shy. Oh well. 😉

    1. So you had forecast exactly 83 for Boston, using the full scientific method, and all of that?

      1. I’m already liking it. turns out my youngest and her husband have been watching and really like it too

  71. TK – I didn’t actually forecast 83 on the nose but I just had a good feeling that the record would be broken is all. I basically used common sense with such a high launch pad early morning temperature. If I recall it was 72 degrees with the cold front arriving not until noontime or so.

    I thought gut instinct was still welcome on WHW. 🙂

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