Saturday April 15 2023 Forecast (7:51AM)

53 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 15-19)

A back-to-reality weekend as we’ll see limited sun (if any at all in some areas), an often onshore air flow, and a couple of bouts of wet weather – although far from a “wash-out”, as the over-used meteorological phrase goes. Our unsettled weather will come in the form of a few showers later today or tonight and a bit of light rain and/or drizzle at times Sunday from a weakening low pressure area drifting up the Atlantic Coast from the south, and then a round of showers some time Monday afternoon or evening, holding off long enough so that the major events (Lexington / Concord, Boston Marathon, Red Sox Game) in the area should take place without much in the way of wet weather to contend with. The latter will be the result of a frontal boundary sweeping eastward across the region, parented by low pressure passing to our north. After that low lifts into eastern Canada, on its back side we’ll see gusty winds, cool air, and maybe a pop up shower Tuesday as upper level low pressure crosses the region, then a sliver of high pressure to bring fair weather and less wind by Wednesday.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 60-67 most areas – a few sub-60 readings some coastal areas and a few pushes toward 70 in some inland locations. Wind NE up to 10 MPH, few higher gusts in some coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Areas of fog / drizzle. Lows 46-53. Wind E-NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers mainly early morning. Patchy drizzle and light rain favoring the coast and especially Cape Cod thereafter. Highs 52-59, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 45-52.Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely later in the day. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the evening. Lows 48-55. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A passing shower possible. Highs 58-65. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 20-24)

One low pressure trough brings the threat of a little unsettled weather around April 21-22 and another approaches late-period with rain chances. Temperatures variable, averaging near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 25-29)

Trend remains cooler and more unsettled for the later days of April with a trough of low pressure dominating the Northeast.

53 thoughts on “Saturday April 15 2023 Forecast (7:51AM)”

    1. Gut instinct is definitely welcomed as long as we know that’s what it is, but also with the understanding that gut instinct applied to predicting the weather is really just guessing, which sometimes ends up a lucky guess. Nothing will ever be a better application than the scientific method, even though that is fallible at times. Gut instinct over a period of time would lead to far inferior accuracy in comparison to the tried and true scientific method, that while not a guarantee of accuracy, will work in your favor much more often. The professionals, including the media (TV) meteorologists, work hard to get where they are, but we also recognize our efforts will not always yield the results we desire.

      I could use gut instinct playing the lottery every day, but most days, I ain’t winnin’ crap. šŸ˜‰

  5. Philip brought up the interesting point of “gut instinct” in yesterday’s blog. Specifically, he was referencing Boston’s breaking the temperature record and that the morning warmth suggested a record was about to be broken. Here, “suggested” was informed by gut instinct. I think that at times we all have gut feelings about the weather. Yes, even professional meteorologists. And, occasionally these may even conflict with what the science is indicating.

    Clearly, gut instinct is not science-based. And, with the scientific tools available to us, meteorologists are able to predict the weather without relying on gut feelings. And they do this remarkably accurately.

    Yet, animals of all kinds use their instinct – in combination with sensory organs (which respond to changes in barometric pressure, for example), and even smell and noise – to sense what the weather will be like, or perhaps even an impending earthquake.

    We humans are also animals. But, over time we have lost certain animal instincts. Frankly, most of us don’t need these instincts anymore. But, what we have and what animals don’t have is the ability to understand our natural environment (not simply sense it) and in meteorology to predict the short-term future. As TK has said, when predicting, meteorologists don’t just rely on the models, they also depend on historical data and, to some degree, their (gut) sense. The latter is of course informed by years and years of experience observing patterns.

    1. Interesting point about earthquakes…

      The animals are feeling the initial P-waves that are too weak for us to detect. An example of their heightened senses versus our dulled ones.

      With weather prediction, sometimes the term “gut instinct” is mis-applied. For example, experience shows us that under certain conditions, a sea breeze in Boston can die off at the end of the afternoon and when there is enough warm air just inland, the resultant “new” circulation can bring that right back to the coast. Hence Boston’s sudden 10 degree jump to the record high of 88 the other day. Most of us felt it wasn’t enough to go for it to happen – a decision that turned out to be incorrect, and pretty widespread miss since most of the local media had already shown the high to have been 85 and the record to have been missed by 1 degree. Obviously, this was not correct by the time the day was over. But that’s part of the science too. Maybe next time, we’ll wait until later in the evening to “declare” the high temp in a similar set-up. šŸ™‚

    2. Very interesting comment. Thank you, Joshua

      Years ago, at the barn where my daughter boarded her horse, every horse that had been enjoying sunshine in the field, erupted rather frantically. Shortly thereafter there was a small earthquake. Shortly is relative. They responded before our well honed instruments picked it up.

      That is one of a Gazillion example of animal instinct. So do we choose to go with having a horse in the field as opposed to a meter in a lab?

      Guessing is absolutely fineā€¦but taking it one step further, if the guess is correct due to luck of the draw, I donā€™t believe it should be compared to reliable science. The horse can be right on occasion that an earthquake is imminent. But it could just as likely be reacting to a scary deer behind a tree since they are flight animals

  7. TK, thanks for the great discussion on gut instincts and weather. Philip, thanks for initiating the discussion.

  9. JPD. Watched the first two episodes of Night Watch. Fortunately, it settled down after episode one which my daughter said it would. I think I jumped so many times, that I ended up in the opposed side of the couch.

    It is really good. Thank you for recommending. I am sorry it is only 10 episodes and the next season wonā€™t be till 2024 earliest

  10. Vicki, your horse example expresses the issue of instinct versus science so well. Thanks for sharing.

  13. I am currently reading a very interesting book about what we sometimes call gut instincts. It is “blink” by Malcolm Gladwell.

  14. Sorry Mrs. JPD still isnā€™t feeling well. Is it Covid or ā€œsomething elseā€?

    Hope she gets well soon. šŸ™‚

    1. Tested negative many times. BUT I think it is COVID, despite the tests. Thanks For asking. She has/had EVERY symptom.

      1. My youngest has a friend who had Covid. Another in the household did also. Both tested positive. A third with the same symptoms consistently tested negative.

  15. SClarke, Gladwell is a good writer and offers interesting perspectives. Thanks for letting us know about the book.

  16. Thanks TK. JPD sorry to hear your wife is still not feeling well. I hope she starts heading in a better direction. Vicki, I hope your brother is doing ok.

    2. Thank you,Scott. He is ready to move on which is a very good sign. The insurance co is dragging its feet on rehab approval. Sound familiar TK.

        1. Just not right. But I am sure what my brother is going through is nothing compared to what your brother had to deal with.

  18. Runners in the Boston Marathon have seen all kinds of weather. Of course, April is notoriously fickle in Boston. Here’s a rundown:

    Marathon Day high temperatures for Boston – and prepare yourself for a few surprises:

    1905 – 100 degrees
    1907 – Occasional snow
    1908 – Snowflakes, drizzle
    1909 – 97 degrees
    1925 – Cold wind, snowflakes
    1927 – 84 degrees
    1952 – 84 degrees
    1961 – 39 degrees; snow squalls
    1967 – Snow squalls
    1961 – 39 degrees; snow squalls
    1967 – Snow squalls
    1970 – 38 degrees; driving rain, sleet
    1976 – 96 degrees
    1982 – 68 degrees
    1987 – 87 degrees; 96% humidity
    1999 – 68 degrees
    2000 – 47 degrees
    2001 – 54 degrees
    2002 – 56 degrees; heavy mist
    2003 – 59 degrees
    2004 – 86 degrees
    2005 – 66 degrees
    2006 – 53 degrees
    2007 – 50 degrees; strong wind, torrential rain
    2008 – 53 degrees; heavy mist
    2009 – 47 degrees
    2010 – 49 degrees
    2011 – 55 degrees
    2012 – 87 degrees
    2013 – 54 degrees
    2014 – 63 degrees
    2015 – 44 degrees; driving rain, wind
    2016 – 61 degrees
    2017 – 73 degrees
    2018 – 43 degrees; drenching rain, strong wind
    2019 – 63 degrees; light to heavy showers, thunderstorms

        2. It just so happens that I watched a video on the 1964 Marathon earlier this afternoon. The weather started out chilly and showery but ended just before race time (12:00 noon). It remained mostly cloudy thereafter.

          The legendary Johnny Kelley finished 48th. He was 56 years old. His father was even still alive cheering him on at the finish line in Boston. šŸ™‚

      2. How awesome. I was worried about my son because he didnā€™t train. Then he reminded me heā€™d walked the app trail for two weeks just before.

      1. Adding that it is still hard for me to believe that when I graduated high school women could not run. And also that in that same year I believe guess who is coming to dinner was released. Iā€™ve watched that movie too many times to count. And each time am thankful I somehow knew from an early age the power of women from my mom and the equality of all thanks to something inside me that I have yet to figure out

  21. NWS wording remains too strong for the minimal shower threats we have over the next couple days.

    Just not much is going to happen…

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