Sunday April 16 2023 Forecast (7:40AM)

45 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 16-20)

In the dank tank for today – but rainfall is going to be limited to an initial batch of dissipating showers in Metro West (which may be gone by the time you read this) and a more solid area of showers from the South Coast of RI & MA through Cape Cod (with most of the activity offshore). This is due to a weakening area of low pressure drifting across the region that will serve more to keep clouds, areas of fog, and patchy drizzle in place than much else. Another low pressure area, this one larger in scale, is going to be passing to our northwest during the next 24 to 36 hours, pushing a cold front across the region with another threat of showers during Monday, but it still looks like the bulk of that activity holds off until after the major Patriots Day events in the region, as mentioned yesterday. Once that low gets into eastern Canada, a breezy, cool day is expected Tuesday and there may be a pop up shower with an upper level low crossing the region, providing plenty of cold air aloft, which is an unstable set-up. This may linger a little into Wednesday at least enough to produce some diurnal clouds and maybe a sprinkle or brief shower, but we should see mainly dry weather at midweek as a narrow area of high pressure moves into the region.

TODAY: Cloudy. A few showers west / northwest of Boston early, and more widespread showers South Coast / Cape Cod until mid morning, otherwise isolated sprinkles. Areas of drizzle and fog. Highs 52-59, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Lows 45-52.Wind E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers mainly afternoon. Highs 54-61, coolest coast. Wind E-SE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the evening. Lows 48-55. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A passing shower possible. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 36-43. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a passing shower. Highs 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 57-64, coolest coast. Wind variable 5-15 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 21-25)

One low pressure trough brings the threat of a little unsettled weather around April 21-22 and another approaches later in the period with rain chances. Temperatures variable, averaging near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 26-30)

Trend remains cooler and more unsettled for the late days of April with a trough of low pressure dominating the Northeast.

45 thoughts on “Sunday April 16 2023 Forecast (7:40AM)”

  8. We had a bit over 3” snow two years ago today. I went back to read the blog on that day and were some fairly high numbers up north in in western MA

      1. I loved Cat996 comment that snow in any month was perfect. Not sure those are the right numbers. But I agree with the comment

  11. Climate change preoccupied the minds of some of our Founders, including Thomas Jefferson. Apparently, he was rather obsessed with weather and the changing climate.
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-americas-founders-worried-about-climate-change-cd9032ee

    For those without access to the WSJ article, here are some excerpts:

    “On July 1, 1776, just as Jefferson was drafting the Declaration of Independence, he began to keep a diary in which he recorded two temperature readings a day for the next 50 years.

    Indeed, on the morning of July 4, the day that America’s independence from Britain was declared, Jefferson visited Sparhawk’s stationery store in Philadelphia to buy a new thermometer. And, a day after independence he went back to Sparhawk’s to buy a barometer, so that his findings could be even more accurate.

    Jefferson wasn’t just collecting data for data’s sake. Rather, he was trying to find evidence to support his conviction that the climate was changing in North America in the second half of the 18th century. He was convinced that “a change in our climate…is taking place very sensibly. Both heats and colds are become much more moderate within the memory even of the middle-aged. Snows are less frequent and less deep.” While “the elderly inform me the earth used to be covered with snow for about three months in every year,” Jefferson wrote, it no longer was, nor did rivers freeze as often as they used to.”

    1. I wonder what phase the yet undiscovered AMO was in. I’m seeing more and more evidence of a strong link between that index and the global climate. A colleague of mine is going to be doing a large write-up on that not long from now which I will share.

      1. Really interesting, indeed.

        The WSJ article I cited mentions Noah Webster (of dictionary fame) retort to Jefferson’s claims.

        “This was all nonsense [according to Webster]. Jefferson was relying on anecdotal evidence from “elderly and middle-age people” who claimed summers and winters used to be cooler. Such views were completely unreliable, Webster said.

        1. This is interesting stuff. I suppose that when the “elderly and middle-age people” walked into town and back it was uphill both ways 😀

            1. All of our grandparents as kids walked uphill both ways to school in 2-3 foot snowdrifts during those long, brutally cold winters. Kids today have it easy with climate change. 😉

    2. Jefferson is my least favorite founder. Not to say I don’t admire him. I do. And this is one of the reasons. He was smart enough to wonder about climate well before man had its horrific, continuing impact. Other founders did as well. Native peoples both saw and warned us.

      Thank you, Joshua. I understand there are natural occurrences. It is hard for me to believe that anyone believes …as Jefferson did….we are not influencing those occurrences and pushing this climate into what we will look back on and finally understand what we did. If man can still survive that is.

      https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/americas-first-great-global-warming-debate-31911494/

  12. Time for the Sox to change divisions. Last year they fared very well against the AL West. This included a winning record against the eventual WS winner, Houston. They went 25-8 against the AL West, overall. And, they went 18-15 against the AL Central. But, they were a miserable 26-50 against AL East opponents.

    Well, the very early returns this season are pretty similar. Not so good against East rivals, but great against West and Central opponents.

      1. I know. Of course, I’m kidding around. Plus, Boston is as far east as any team in baseball. Being a West division team wouldn’t make any sense.

        It is a curiosity, to be sure, however, the fact that there’s such a difference in wins and losses when we compare how the Sox fare against East v. West/Central division foes. Houston and Seattle were very good teams last year. Yet, the Sox beat them soundly, even on the road. Yet, they can’t seem to beat Tampa Bay. It’s weird.

          1. As long as the Bruins and Celtics win their respective championships, no one will notice or care what the Red Sox do this season.

            1. Well the hardcore fans will. 🙂
              I don’t expect much from the Sox other than some entertaining games. 🙂

              I want the Celtics to do well and go all the way – though I’m not much of an NBA fan for the last 25 years or so.

              It’s hockey for me… GO BRUINS!

  15. I hope the warm weather fans enjoyed what we had, because it may be quite a long time before we see a warm-up like that one again. 😉

    EPS is in love with periodic blocking & a lot of eastern US trough through early May.

      1. Given the way things are setting up, wouldn’t surprise me of June flakes fall in the mountains this year. 🙂

          1. We can send the request, but not sure if the DJ takes them. We’ll find out. 🙂

  16. HRRR continues the theme of a few passing showers Monday PM.

    AccuWeather and NWS wording continues to make it sound like a very wet day. I disagree with both, although NWS did back off a tiny bit this evening. I think HRRR has this nailed.

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