Monday April 17 2023 Forecast (7:12AM)

87 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 17-21)

This is one of our area’s “big days”. Patriots Day is always full of activity that can be impacted by weather, from battle re-enactments in Lexington/Concord to the Boston Marathon to the traditional morning first pitch Red Sox home game at Fenway. And while not directly weather-dependent, Boston will continue extra busy this evening, not only as the final runners from the marathon cross the finish line, but as the Boston Bruins begin their playoff run with a home game against the Florida Panthers. While we will have a low pressure system impacting our region today, it will work out pretty well overall. Lingering low level moisture put in place by an onshore flow associated with weak low pressure moving by the region yesterday means that we will start the day with areas of fog and drizzle under a low overcast, but without much wind. It’ll be cool and on the damp side, but not terrible for anybody outside for the aforementioned activities. Conditions for runners look pretty decent but not ideal as some mist/drizzle is around to start and some rain showers can pass through at any time during the race. These showers will be associated with a cold front, parented by low pressure passing well to our north. The front will move across the region from west southwest to east northeast during the afternoon and early evening, when showers are most likely, but the bulk of them occurring after most of the outdoor activities have ended (other than the later finishing marathon runners). Once the front moves by, drier air will sweep in around the broad circulation of the low on a west southwest wind into Tuesday, but as surface low pressure moves away through eastern Canada, we’ll still have a pool of chilly air aloft to cross the region, associated with upper level low pressure. This means that while Tuesday will likely dawn mostly sunny, we’ll see a fair amount of diurnal clouds popping up, and some of these may grow enough to produce a few showers. A gusty breeze will blow as well, although it won’t be too chilly with modified air arriving via the Midwest. We will cool down a few degrees for Wednesday with a little more northwesterly air flow to the east of a narrow area of high pressure in the Great Lakes. This high will slide across the region Wednesday evening then to the east by Thursday, opening the door for a warm front to move into the area with more cloudiness and eventually a light rain chance. We should be into the warm sector by Friday, but a cold front will approach later in the day with a shower chance resulting.

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of drizzle/fog until mid morning. Isolated to scattered showers mid morning to midday, scattered to briefly numerous showers midday-afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind E under 10 MPH early, SE up to 10 MPH thereafter until late-day, then SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts by evening.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 44-51. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun to start, then lots of clouds and a possible passing shower. Highs 56-63. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 36-43. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 53-60. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Clouding up. Slight chance of light rain. Highs 58-65. Wind variable becoming S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a shower. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers late-day or evening. Highs 63-70 except cooler in coastal areas, especially South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 22-26)

A frontal system and additional low pressure in the region for the April 22-23 weekend means unsettled weather – may not rain at all times but will have to watch for shower chances and variable temperatures. Will work out details in the days ahead. Trending drier and cooler thereafter.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 27 – MAY 1)

Overall idea is near to below normal temperatures with some unsettled weather at times as a low pressure trough will be in control of the weather.

87 thoughts on “Monday April 17 2023 Forecast (7:12AM)”

  4. Patriots Day is my favorite day of the year. It’s a uniquely Boston holiday, when the city is showcasing itself to the world. The day starts reminding everyone how the Revolution that created this nation began, the Marathon attracts worldwide attention, then the Red Sox have the baseball stage all to themselves, with 2 generational players (Trout and Ohtani) on the other side. Add in the Bruins beginning a playoff run after an historic season, and it (hopefully) makes for a fantastic day.

    My uncle’s house is 1/2 mile from the starting line of the Marathon in Hopkinton. He used to volunteer for the town and help out until he was no longer able to physically. I’m about to head into Boston for my 37th Patriots Day game, and I also have tickets for the Bruins game tonight. It’ll be a very long day, but hopefully a rewarding one.

    1. Enjoy your day! Go Sox & Bruins!
      Before pitch clock, we’d probably be more worried about showers for the late innings. Game will get played. 🙂

      1. I would be curious as to the Red Sox record on Patriots Day. You would think that an 11:00 am start would throw the visiting team off a bit but off the top of my head, I believe those teams have won more often than not. SAK?

        1. I think for ALL Patriots Day games the record is 71-54, but I know SAK has the #’s and can confirm that or correct it.

          The current incarnation of the late morning first pitch game goes back to 1960 I believe. But there were many Patriots Day games before that, including a couple dozen double headers earlier in the 1900s.

    1. In general I’d think not too bad. I’m sure some runners would prefer drier air, but you’ll never please everybody, right? 🙂

      1. For this particular 3-day holiday, Murphy’s Law is the best thing for the runners. You don’t want wall-to-wall sunshine and warm/hot temperatures like in 1976.

        Even still, for mid-April the weather is not half bad, even if it is quite dull in terms of sky cover.

  6. Early this morning at sunrise, the sky had a somewhat “weird” color to it even though it was a low overcast. I can’t really describe it.

    1. Above the low overcast there was a significant area with no clouds, and then above that there was a high cloud canopy, but with enough clear sky to the east that the rising sun was shining well over the stratus deck near the surface and onto the bottom of those high clouds, creating a beautiful gold / orange / pink sunrise color up there. While we could not see that directly, due to the low overcast, you were seeing the reflected light from it – some of it making it through the stratus deck. Had you been in a plane above the stratus clouds, you’d have seen a spectacular sunrise. 🙂

  7. This year, the local coverage for the Boston Marathon has shifted from Channel 4 to Channel 5. There was a time when 3 stations (4, 5, 7) covered the race. Later it dropped to just 4 & 5. In recent years, it was exclusively on Ch 4, but now Ch 5 gets the stage.

    Nationally, the race is being covered by ESPN, and their telecast already started and runs until 1PM, though it is blacked out locally.

    I traditionally work on some in-house easy projects while I take in the local TV coverage of the race and when it’s time on a second screen I watch the Red Sox. I use the day as kind of a planning day for the rest of the spring (projects, etc.) and if it’s nice outside sometimes I’ll get a little yard work done late in the day.

    I will be making a brief trip to visit my brother with my mom late in the day. For anybody who missed it, he’s now in rehab (for about week). The focus will be on his recovery & rehabilitation, as much as can take place, now that he’s there. Hoping for the best of course!

  10. CFS also with the theme of cool and unsettled weather as the general regime into May.

    NOTE: Unsettled weather does not automatically translate into above normal precipitation. We’re in a dry spell right now that has evolved coming out of late winter into early spring, and it’s important to see if this goes on and threatens to put us back into abnormally dry conditions heading toward summer, or if enough rain will take place to prevent this. That will be something to monitor going forward. The CFS theme is dry despite being unsettled – meaning a lot of cloudy weather but not a lot of heavy rainfall.

      1. Felt tired , but sore & pigged out on Chinese food that night . I carried my son across the finish line on his 4th birthday. Time 5:33:45sec

      1. Tuukka is my brother’s dog’s name. 😉

        By the way I had to approve your comments as somehow your screen name got changed to “JoDave”. I fixed it, but check your next post in case it’s trying to save that way. 🙂

  13. I echo what SAK said about Patriot’s Day/Marathon Monday. It’s unique, and uniquely Boston as well as the surrounding area.

    From the re-enactment of events that changed and inspired the world to the oldest annual marathon to the ritual of having an 11am game at Fenway.

    To top it off, the Boston Marathon course is one of the world’s most varied and beautiful.

      1. The olympic marathon course is different every time, so it’s hard to really compare it in the way you’d compare Boston to NY, for example. Most runners regard Boston’s course as “one of the hardest” if not the hardest. We have some of the most variable weather and a complex course with hills and turns.

  15. The initial batch of showers is fast and a little more numerous than all short range guidance had.

    The entire marathon route is about to experience at least a brief shower, with a few pockets of very brief moderate rainfall.

  16. The hills and turns make the Boston Marathon especially difficult. It’s quite a varied course, meaning it goes from fairly rural and rustic to suburban to urban, which includes lots of variation in topography.

    1. It’s what makes it, IMO (bias aside), the most exciting course to watch a race on. So many courses are much flatter, don’t have trolley tracks crossing them, are a bunch of generally straight lines with a few turns, and it’s just much more about only the technical aspects of running as far as the runners’ strengths and weaknesses are. With Boston you throw in the other variations in the course that are not present in other courses. And I’m not saying our weather is unique, as weather can vary pretty much anywhere, but we are up there on the scale of variety (as we were reminded by the recent post), which obviously adds its own excitement.

  17. Marcel Hug beat his own record by about 1 min, winning the men’s wheelchair race in a time of 1:17:06.

    And he’s off to do the London Marathon in 6 days. 😉

  19. Rain-delay start for the Sox. This batch of showers should be out of there in a short time.

  20. TK, I absolutely agree with your post on what makes Boston’s Marathon the best.

    Regarding weather, as we’ve been noting in recent blog posts the variability is rather incredible from year to year. This makes it very hard to prepare for from a “getting acclimated” perspective. You really never know what you’re going to get in Boston and vicinity.

  22. What I find interesting is that in spite of the Boston Marathon’s rugged course, varied weather conditions, etc. the Kenyan runners clean our clocks year after year with no sweat. Pretty much since WW II foreigners have been winning “our” race. 😉

    I guess the legendary Johnny Kelley was the last “Bostonian” to win? (1945)

    Has any American (male or female) even finished in the “top-10” this century?

    1. The Boston Marathon men’s race has been won by an American 11 times since 1945.

      There have been 16 women’s winners from the USA since 1966, the most recent in 2018.

      The Boston Marathon is not “our race”. It’s open to the world, and our own have done quite well despite the competition.

        1. Considering the competition, I don’t agree with you at all. We’ve done quite well as a country competing against runners from parts of the world where running is THE sport.

        2. Actually, I’ll take back my last comment above as I only read “11 times since 1945”. I still wish we can start dominating a bit more though. 🙂

          1. Not likely, as those countries normally have a much deeper field of elite runners given the popularity of the sport there.

            Let me put it another way. It’s not likely you’d ever see a world championship quality baseball team from Kenya, but go to the USA, Japan, or the Caribbean, and totally different story.

    2. I agree re our race, TK. It would not be what it is today were if not for worldwide participants.

  23. Thank you, TK.

    Great comments from all. SAK excellent comment re this being a special day in and for Boston. We often took the kids to Lexington and concord and then to watch the marathon.

    I picked up a couple of lobsters from the fish monger in hopkinton Saturday and it was fun see the barriers and other plans starting to be put in place. My now retired business associate is a runner. Before moving to Maine, He and his wife always manned a tent in wellesley. They tell me that the colors worn by BAA today are the same worn 10 years ago in memory….

  24. Philip, while it’s true that in recent years the field of elite marathon runners has been dominated by Kenyans, among other East Africans, since WW2 there have definitely been many American winners, including Bill Rodgers, who won it 4 years in a row, if I remember correctly (1977 through 1980). Also, though Kenyans and Ethiopians also dominate the women’s side in recent years, there have been a few exceptions to the rule, including two Russians who won in the 2000s.

        1. I never looked at it as a matter of good or bad. Sure, I root for USA runners and I love it when they represent well.

          And I know there’s an elites race that means something, men’s women’s, wheel chairs (m&w), and all of that. It’s great to follow. But to me, not to be lost, are the thousands of runners that do this race not to compete with the world’s best, but to compete with themselves, or run for a cause, or in memory of someone.

          And I’d say that everybody who crosses that finish line is a winner – as they certainly are – but to me just getting to the starting line and taking part in the event, finishing or not, makes you a winner. 🙂

  26. Look at the wheelchair division wins by US athletes.

    Men: 14 of 47 (30%)
    Women: 30 of 46 (65%)

    In the more recently introduced handcycle divisions, every winner has been from the US.

    1. And I agree with what TK wrote above. This race is about so much more than the best athletes in the world!

    2. Thanks for those stats. I was going to grab them myself, but I’m multi-tasking at home. 🙂

  27. Next round of rain. Lots of small but some heavy cells, and it’s pretty solid coverage, so this is a wetter mid-race than I thought we were gonna see. But at this point – it is what it is. They’re out there, and they’ll make the most of it.

    Sox are in a rain delay again, and given what’s upstream, this one may last a while… “Shower seeds” as I sometimes refer to them .. to the south which seem to want to develop and peak as they are heading through the Boston area. The next round may be right on the heals of the current one.

    1. Murphy’s Law is very much at work today but it’s still better than HHH. The coolish downpours are probably a bit of relief for the runners anyway.

      1. I haven’t heard one runner complain about the weather today, including some pretty famous commentators. 🙂

        Last year, this long weekend was mostly dry.
        Saturday held lots of clouds with a few rain showers off to the west and north. Sunday, which was Easter, was mainly dry other than some pop up showers of rain and graupel in the afternoon with a cold upper low passing by. And Marathon Monday featured sun giving way to clouds with dry weather.

        Odds are, any 3-day period in New England is going to have one that has a rain chance. This particular year, if you take Saturday through Monday for this weekend, it’s 2 of 3. More like climatology and not so much Murphy. 🙂

        1. Today is a perfect day for it in my opinion, cool cloudy w/ some drizzle . Unless it rained heavy as I did not watch as I just got home from the cape , watching now as the charities are what makes this race special .

  28. “Next” pitch coming out of rain delay at Fenway: 2:35PM.
    Top of the 3rd inning. Hopefully this game will be done before the Bruins drop the puck at 7:30. 😉

  29. I was reading Red Sox game one hour fifty seven minutes yesterday. Both the Yankees and Red Sox started at 135 and were both over before 4. Yankees game was two hours seven minutes. I love the pitch clock.

    1. Today’s game likely would have been over 1/2 hour ago without rain delays. And they’re not even through the 3rd inning yet. But today’s length of game won’t have anything to do with slow pitchers. 😉

    2. Me, too. Despite being a “slower” sport than football (I strongly disagree with the conventional wisdom, hence the quotation marks – I find football slow, a slog, much of the time) the typical game this season will be ~30 minutes shorter than the average football game.

  30. I echo TK’s comments above. My appreciation of the marathon as a classic event goes well beyond a tally of the winners.

    The marathon reflects a perpetual dynamic in society which is very positive. One might call it progressive, but that term often signifies a political inclination, and I’m reluctant to use it therefore.

    So, for example, just in my lifetime it has gone from a rather insular event for a small number of mostly American men to one that is extraordinarily international in scope and includes women, but also has a wheelchair competition and this year a separate category for those who consider themselves non-binary.

    I’m aware that the latter can be a trigger for some. But, I think we can ALL agree that society has changed for the better since my birth year of 1964 for all kinds of marginalized people: From women to minorities to gays and now to the trans and non-binary folks. We complain a lot about America’s many problems. I’m near the front of the line when it comes to critiquing our country’s policies. However, we’re in a much better place now than we were in 1964. In some ways, the marathon’s inclusiveness reflects this.

    1. It has changed for the better, in reality. The problem is so much focus is put on the negative, and where we are divided, etc. … Overshadows the good aspects – and there are many. We see an example of that in today’s event.

  31. I timed my 6 mile run – just 20 miles shorter than the marathon – poorly. Got absolutely drenched with cold downpours twice. The hot shower felt good.

  32. It was cool seeing Zdeno Chara and Doug Flutie among those crossing the finish line today. 🙂

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