Monday May 1 2023 Forecast (7:27AM)

64 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 1-5)

May’s here, and this week our pattern will be dominated by the eastern low pressure area in an upper level omega-style blocking pattern. For a more complete picture, the other upper low is over California and a ridge of high pressure is centered over the Plains, and very little movement of the large scale features, only an eastward drift, will take place as we move through the next 5 days. This will result in a slow transition in our weather during this time, not a situation where every day has the same weather. Today, we’ll be in a southwesterly wind flow as surface low pressure that went by our region last night wheels northwestward and gets pulled underneath the upper low that’s initially centered in the Great Lakes region. That feature wobbles its way east southeastward Tuesday through midweek, moving overhead Wednesday then finally off to the south and east of the region by Thursday and Friday. But by that I don’t mean “away” yet. That just gradually shifts our wind from south and west initially to more easterly by later Wednesday and the northeast to north Thursday and Friday. As was previously prognosticated, I still think Thursday will be our coolest day. Backing up a bit for a sensible weather summary – today starts with abundant clouds and some last lingering light showers, especially northwest of Boston, then sun takes over, but more clouds pop up and a stray shower may visit western reaches of the forecast area later in the day. Tuesday, more widespread showers move in from the west and will be around off and on during the day. We may see a break and some clearing early Wednesday before another batch of clouds and possible showers, even some drizzle as we see the wind transition to more of an onshore (easterly) by later in the day. Any showers later Tuesday and Wednesday can contain graupel or small hail due to the cold air aloft. Additional showers and drizzle can be around Thursday, the coolest day with a broad northeasterly air flow, and still some additional pop up showers can occur on Friday as well as we’re still well within the influence of the upper low, even though it’s starting to move further away by then.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy start with a few showers mainly northwest of Boston from north central MA into southwestern and south central NH, then a sunnier interval before more clouds pop up during the afternoon hours, and a stray shower is again possible in the CT Valley to Monadnock region later in the day. Highs 60-67 except 50s South Coast. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH with some higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A quick shower possible early in southwestern NH. Lows 47-54. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers, some of which may contain graupel and/or small hail by later in the day. Highs 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers likely during the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 43-50. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny early, then mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers, possibly mixed with graupel and/or small hail. Areas of drizzle especially in eastern coastal areas later in the day. Highs 53-60. Wind S up to 10 MPH shifting to E.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and drizzle. Lows 43-50. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and drizzle. Highs 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially in eastern coastal areas.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing shower possible. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 51-58. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 6-10)

May 6-7 weekend looks dry with a slight warming trend, but still coolest at the coast, as upper level low pressure pulls away to the east and high pressure builds to the north of the region. High pressure brings dry weather mid period before the next disturbance brings back the chance of unsettled weather by the end of it.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 11-15)

Overall pattern looks dry and somewhat milder for this period of time into the middle of the month but may start out with some unsettled weather at first.

64 thoughts on “Monday May 1 2023 Forecast (7:27AM)”

  2. Thank you TK.
    Weather from hell!!
    Spring in NE
    Yuck!!@
    I HATEIT!!!@
    It’s as bad as the Bruin’s play.

    I mean I can’t stand it!!!!!!

    1. This weather pattern gives me some of my best spring photo ops. I love it endlessly. 🙂

  5. I drove home from NYC last night after watching the Knicks lose a tough one in Game One and the rain along I 95 corridor was torrential for about 30 percent of drive. Thankfully there really weren’t many cars on the road because of the bad weather.

    1. Ugh. I never liked driving the upper part of the route when we headed to Charleston each spring. During rain just made it nasty. Glad your travels were safe.

  7. I hope a little post mortem Bruins thoughts are ok ……

    WHAT were the Bruins doing in how they went about defending the 6 on 5 late in the 3rd period, that allowed the tying goal with 59 seconds to go ?

    They were so passive in defending that. I get protect the middle, but they were so compact to the middle. That really bugged me. Someone should have attacked the puck and made Florida make quicker decisions.

    And the OT goal with, I think Carlo and Gryzl ?? (I cant spell his name !!). Anyhow, again, so passive to the puck.

    When the puck was dumped into the zone, they were both 1 or 2 steps closer to the puck than any Panther and somehow, in 15 yards of ice, got beaten to the puck along the boards by at least 3 feet.

    Being aggressive can get you beat, no doubt about it. But, I’m sure losing while aggressive is easier to stomach.

    So passive was their play and decision making and I think that is what has me most stunned.

    1. Agree. The coach said they were not ready to play game one or two , ok that’s nice too hear . I think they were just a different team in this series & made alot of mistakes . They should have pulled Ullmark earlier , this loss yesterday can’t be blamed on the goalie. I’m bummed out as I don’t think anyone saw this coming , of course anything can happen & it’s not guaranteed as we saw . Next year the team will look a lot different with key players gone . I definitely have a game hangover today

  8. Thank you TK

    Blue sky with a cool 57 degree wind and an odd, almost unnoticeable, haze.

    I enjoy mornings like this.

  9. Mulțumesc, TK. [Romanian]

    I love hearing the Romanian language. I don’t get to that often. It’s about as Latin-derived as any other language I know. In light of the difficult defeat suffered by our Bruins, viața trebuie să meargă mai departe.

      1. One minute it’s partly sunny, the next it’s sheets of drizzle. That’s what I experienced just awhile ago out getting my mid-morning coffee.

        Only in New England. 😉

        1. And even more frequently in northwestern Europe, so definitely not “only in New England”. 😉

  12. Go Celtics! :mrgreen:

    Go (away) Bruins! Don’t bother coming back next season for all I care. And I don’t even follow hockey!

    At least with the Celtics, I expect them to screw it up eventually. :mrgreen:

    1. The bruins had a great season Philip they just were not ready both mentally or physically ready for playoff grind & it cost them big time . They busted there ass all season for a shot at the cup & when that time came they just weren’t prepared

      1. Yes SSK, they had a great “regular” season. A great “season” is a Stanley Cup presentation.

  13. Philip, as I mentioned last week the weather we’re experiencing is very typical of Northwestern Europe. With the exception of yesterday – it tends not to rain as much in one go as it does here – the weather the past 8 days has been almost a perfect simile of what I experienced in the Netherlands for many years.

    1. Yes, indeed.

      And if we lived in England and followed the Premier League in which there aren’t any playoffs to determine the champion (the title only goes to the club that finishes with the most points) the Bruins would be champions. But, we don’t live in England, and our professional sports all follow a playoff format. Don’t get me wrong, I like the playoffs. But, they do make the regular season much less important.

      1. I like the team at the top being winner at the end of the day. I am not a fan of how our “playoffs” seem to have morphed. I don’t understand why there is a wild card. If you have two divisions, then the top of each plays off.

        1. At the end of the day, it’s all about $$$$ for the respective leagues. It’s a wonder they don’t have everyone from top to bottom make the postseason.

  14. The 12z GFS definitely has TK’s showers and drizzle Wednesday night, if not a ribbon of some heavier rain/showers from an inverted trof.

    Looks winter like, without snow.

  15. I just realized something. The Covid-19 pandemic will be “officially” declared over 10 days from today (May 11). 🙂

    Am I correct on that Joshua? I hope.

    1. BUT, the problem is that it is NOT over, not by a long shot.
      People have just had enough, is all. 🙂

  16. Personally I have always preferred the format in the English Premier League and other European leagues. 1. One winner of the League, the team with the most points (no playoffs); 2. Separately, each season teams compete for an inter-league (including all divisions, what we’d call the minors) cup in a knock-out format; 3. Separately, the top team (or several teams from each of the most competitive leagues in Europe) compete in the Champions League, which contains a playoff format of sorts; 4. Separately, all star players from each nation compete in international competitions like the European and World Cup in a playoff format of sorts (well not really, but sort of).

    The end-result is that if you’re a top-notch player you have practically no off-season. Perhaps 2 weeks or so. I’m not exaggerating.

      1. On my run, noticed the Charles and its estuary (well, lagoon) had a very large gulp of water. Saw the turtles swimming near the edge where there’s a concrete ledge they like to sunbathe on. They couldn’t do that today, as the water rose well over the ledge. The turtles looked a little frustrated.

        I also saw some goslings and their protective parents.

    1. Yes!

      And it’s May Day. It’s been celebrated since medieval times as a midway point between the spring equinox and summer solstice. For example, May Day or “Spring Day” (KevadpĂźha) is a national holiday in Estonia celebrating the arrival of spring.

      Moreover, May Day has been celebrated since the late 1800s as international labor day. It is a national holiday in much of Europe. The latter has its origins in the U.S. anarchist and radical socialist labor movement of the late 1800s. Soon, worldwide, socialists of all stripes – from militants to social democrats – adopted it as a day to celebrate labor, trade unions, and the labor movement in general.

      1. I attended Belmont Day school in my early years. We always danced around the maypole. I still have a paper hat I made. When our kids were younger, they surprised neighbors with homemade May baskets full of treats. I wish this country hadn’t moved away from celebrating some of the older special dates.

  22. Like the red wing blackbirds, Hummingbirds are late this year so far by about 10 days. Have not seen an oriole yet but they typically appear about now.

  24. This was the first day in Boston with above normal temps since April 18.

  25. For some weird reason orioles seem to like cemeteries (perhaps they’re morbidly curious). I’ve spotted them at Mt. Auburn Cemetery and Swan Point Cemetery (in Providence). And, both times, it was in May. The only other time I saw them was in Dover, near where JP Dave fishes – Charles River dam and Red-Wing bay.

  26. I’m on deck and first hummer Just arrived at the feeder. They heard me.

    We have orioles a lot. They love my orange feeder and often drink from hummer feeder. Mt Auburn has so many plants and flowering trees for them

    2. Hard to see but there is snow in the oriole photo. That was May 9 a couple of years ago.

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