Monday May 15 2023 Forecast (7:27AM)

47 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 15-19)

A dry stretch of weather will continue through the next 5 days, with only one shower threat, and a minor one at that, being with the passage of a strong cold front Tuesday night. The front will be strong, but there will be little moisture to work with. That front is part of a pattern that while dry, will bring some temperature changes, most notably a shot of chilly air at mid week that culminates in the chance of frost and even some freezing that can impact early agricultural development Wednesday night / early Thursday morning, so farmers and local gardeners take note and monitor! Before that, we have a cool start and warmer afternoon today as high pressure shifts to the south, a warmer day Tuesday ahead of the cold front. After the chill-down we rebound again to warmer weather by Friday. So strap in, it’s temperature roller coaster time! Also another reminder of the high brush fire danger this week due to dry weather and periods of windy weather.

TODAY: Sunniest morning, then a cloud-sun sky share during the afternoon. Highs 70-77. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 74-81. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower early. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 58-65. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35 interior lower elevations, 35-42 elsewhere, mildest in urban centers. Wind NW up to 10 MPH, diminishing.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind W increasing to 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 47-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 71-78. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 20-24)

Still have to work out the timing of a frontal system moving through with a shower threat some time during the May 20-21 weekend, and whether or not a surge of additional moisture will make its way up from the south. Fair weather follows early next week, but rain chances return by mid next week. Warmest early period, then a cooling trend.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 25-29)

Additional unsettled weather is possible early in the period, then a return to dry weather is expected heading into the Memorial Day Weekend. Variable temperatures, coolest at first then warming.

47 thoughts on “Monday May 15 2023 Forecast (7:27AM)”

  14. Currently61 here after a low of 49.

    Current Ocean temp as recorded at Boston Buoy, 16 NM East of Boston:

    54.14 F

  15. Thank you Vicki!

    Well I believe today is the first day of the eastern Pacific hurricane season. No activity.

  19. Some notes of interest in the tropics.

    The 1st tropical wave of the season has emerged off the west coast of Africa. Atlantic hurricane season begins in June 1.

    In the Southern Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Fabien has maximum sustained winds near 85 knots, and could reach 115 knots tomorrow. If that is the case, it will likely be the strongest storm very in the Southern Indian Ocean during the month of May. This is the end of their season, so this is the equivalent of a Category 4 in the Atlantic in mid-November. Fabien should stay over water, but what’s interesting is that it is located at only 5.5 S, which is awfully close to the Equator for a storm that strong.

  21. Thanks TK! Been in lurk mode lately but hope all is well.

    And belated Happy Motherā€™s Day to all the moms!!

    Per Tomā€™s posts above, expect smoke to return to the skies in the coming days. Canada got a brief reprieve late last week with some cooler weather, but unfortunately it wasnā€™t enough to obtain meaningful containment on most of their fires in advance of the new stretch of near record hot weather, and now they are raging again as Tomā€™s satellite links show. To see that much new smoke billowing out this early in the day is a bad sign, as fire activity tends to follow a diurnal cycle. Those fires will likely burn hundreds of thousands of additional acres this week, and the upper jet will direct much of the smoke towards the Northeast USā€¦

    1. Thanks for checking in WxW.

      Those fires are the result of absolute ā€œhumanā€carelessness!

      2. 85-90% of them are, but they still burn 9 times less acreage than natural wildfires. The reason is most of them are contained much more quickly because they are started in areas with easy access where as natural fires are more random and many of them start in areas that take much longer to reach.

  26. Vicki hard to believe it has been five year since that severe weather outbreak in CT. Thankfully one of the tornadoes missed my area to the south.

  27. The sun is a decent distance above the horizon and itā€™s still orange-red.

    The northern horizon has this darkish tint.

    Looking forward to the visible in a bit.

    I suspect thereā€™s an extremely thick plume of smoke cutting across New England, more central, maybe north ??

    1. There is smoke, but most of this is warm advection cloud cover. You can see it forming along the mountain ridges on the sat loop.

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