Sunday May 21 2023 Forecast (7:52AM)

60 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 21-25)

After some beneficial rainfall yesterday, it’s back to the dry regime again. The cold front is offshore, but in New England style we’ll be a little milder than yesterday behind it as we replace a moist southerly air flow with a drying westerly one, which results in downslope warming. We’ll have some cloudiness to contend with but eventually the sun will win out later today. Cooler air does arrive for early in the week as high pressure to the north sends a broad scale onshore flow into the region Monday into Tuesday. High pressure slips to the east and a warmer southerly air flow arrives Wednesday, but that warm-up will be short-lived as a sharp cold front will drop out of Canada to bring our only risk of wet weather during the next 5 days on Wednesday evening in the form of showers. This leads to a cool-down for Thursday with more dry weather.

TODAY: Lots of clouds with a trend to more sun later. Highs 67-74. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind N shifting to E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind E under 10 MPH..

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-69, coolest coastal areas. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 43-50. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Late day showers possible. Highs 64-71. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers likely in the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 47-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 60-67, coolest in eastern coastal areas. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 26-30)

Guidance has been amusing to look at during the last couple of days with two medium range models flipping the forecast of high pressure and a warm-up for Memorial Day Weekend to one of low pressure moving into the region with unsettled weather, while another model has kept it the same as previously – dry, warming up. The most recent guidance set gets basically 3 different forecasts. What I am eyeing at this point as we head from mid week into and through Memorial Day Weekend and to the penultimate day of May is a tendency for a trough to want to be in place, but one that would just mean the potential for a couple pop-up showers with colder air aloft. This is a (cautiously) optimistic forecast compared to recent guidance trends but one I will go with for now, leaving room for adjustment as the time period draws closer.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 31 – JUNE 4)

With low confidence in the 6-10 day period, you can’t really rebound to higher confidence in the 11-15, so for now I’ll continue to lean to the drier regime winning, but a tendency for Canadian cooling to be readily available to move in.

60 thoughts on “Sunday May 21 2023 Forecast (7:52AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK

    Logan ended up with 1.94 inches. I would call that a soaker.

    1. The updated Drought Monitor map should be nice and clean, at least for awhile, and no more fire danger. 🙂

      1. Just setting that record for the date alone was quite impressive. It always seems hard to get beneficial rain these days, especially at Logan. 🙂

  6. TK – You didn’t acknowledge 5/18/2002. Wasn’t that the date Woburn received its latest accumulating snow for the season? If I recall, it sleeted here in Boston. I was out in it wearing just a light raincoat. Brrrrr! 😛

    1. The latest one that I’ve observed. 0.5 inch that Saturday morning.
      I acknowledged it on its 20th anniversary last year. 🙂

    1. Firehose was pointed right at the WHW fcst area.
      Rainfall forecast generally worked out at 1 to 3 inches.
      A few lower swaths were observed in the northwestern sections of WHW land.

  11. Florida Panthers won another overtime game. I believe they’ve won 5 overtime playoff games thus far this post-season, and haven’t lost any.

      1. But they didn’t. And I really REALLY hope Florida wins the cup. They totally, 100% deserve it – assuming they continue to play the way they are.

        1. Will the Miami Heat follow the same path? Aren’t they the very last seed as well?

          Scary thought if both franchises win their respective championships (NHL, NBA) through Boston teams. A real punch in the gut for sure.

  12. The new name for Nolan Gorman is Go-Ahead Gorman. He has 13 HRs for the season and I think moved from 4th to 3rd for the most

  13. I never realized how big a golfing fan my brother David was until I started seeing him several times a week in hospital / rehab. It’s on his TV often!

    And speaking of, he’s doing well. Speech is continuing to slowly but somewhat steadily improve. He struggles less with certain sounds – others will take longer to “re-learn”.

    Physically getting stronger, but still limited right side motion.

    1. It was pretty good. I enjoyed the weather – a lot. 🙂

      As it turns out, it doesn’t rain on May 20 around here that often. It must be Murphy’s reverse law. 😉

      1. Ditto here. It was cold and raw and rainy and I had three kids in my care…or I was in theirs (hard to tell) ……and I loved every second. You just gotta love pajama days.

  16. Depending on the speed of the front late Wednesday and the orientation of clouds associated with it, that evening could be a strong candidate for rainbow sightings in parts of the region. 🙂

  17. I heard on WBZ radio early this morning that per NOAA…a very HOT summer ahead for New England. Nooooooooooooo!

    1. That’s funny, because they didn’t actually say that. 🙂

      I think somebody looked at the map for the 3-month outlook, saw a “warm color” on the East Coast, and interpreted that as “very hot”.

      1. The newscaster then added, “A REAL SCORCHA!” in a typical Boston accent.

        For a radio station that prides itself to provide “news & information” they have a lot of difficulties with “weather” information.

        1. This changed with the new ownership. Different management. They have fallen victim to the “hype mentality” that is so prevalent in media now. And picking out news stories that aren’t really “news” as we know it.

          Yes, I know a lot of people love Taylor Swift, I get it. I enjoy some of her music and she’s very talented. But, did they really need to cover her concerts for a week like a winter storm threat? 😉

          1. Even years ago, I was not a fan of BZ radio weather. But it appears it has gotten worse.

            Taylor who??

      1. Hello TK. Figuring on climbing in NH on either Fri or Sat but would prefer dry weather. Which would be least likely for rain chances? I’ll be in the Whites at lower altitudes … May be a 2-3,000 footer. Certainly no higher. What say ye?

  19. And on cue the 18z GFS is back to completely dry weather for the MDW. What terrible inconsistency. HAHA!

  20. WBZ used to have decent weather forecasts. I haven’t listened in a while. But I liked Eliot Abrams. I realize he was forecasting from State College, PA. But I thought he did a good job and did not hype anything.

  21. Pollen levels were very high today. I’m recuperating from a long run, and it’s not my muscles that are aching. It’s the allergens in the air that have wreaked havoc.

  22. Still snowing this week in Nuuk, Greenland. Pretty much a chance of snow every day this week, beginning on Tuesday. Temps around the freezing mark during the day and upper 20s at night. Keep in mind, it’s light out now for around 19 hours a day in Nuuk: From 3:45am to 11pm.

    1. Snowy, cold, bright. 🙂 Our air is going to come from there and nearby Canada alot over the coming weeks.

  23. We had a classic red-ball sunset thru smoke again this evening, and followed a short time later with smoke filtered crescent moon and venus sharing the western sky. Got photos of both…

  24. Maybe SAK can help on this one, as he tends to know the stats. I don’t think I’ve ever seen an 8 seed from both the NBA and NHL in the same year in the finals of their respective leagues. This year that’s becoming a strong possibility. And both are from Florida.

    1. It’s probably never happened from the same city/state.

      I’m sure he or somebody will be able to verify.

  25. Celtics are cooked. Despite the contract extension, I don’t expect the coach to be back next year. It’s unlikely the duo Brown-Tatum is going to survive this debacle as a unit. I think Brown will be traded. The duo was never championship material to begin with, in my humble opinion.

    What has bothered me about tonight’s game is the apparent lack of effort. The team has quit. Celtics fans deserve better than this.

    1. On to the Patriots! At least there won’t be any expectations from them in spite of Bill O’Brien as OC. The Red Sox have been done for the postseason since game 1 in late March. All we have left of any postseason aspirations are the Revs and they always fail during their run.

      I am NEVER going to believe in the Bruins or Celtics ever again! They always fizzle out whether they make the playoffs with ease or just barely.

      What has happened to our beloved teams?!? 🙁

      1. I don’t watch basketball. But comments have me curious. We’re the fans supporting loudly. Did they ever boo?

      2. What has happened is that the area was spoiled and now it’s a dose of reality.

        Although, the Celtics are down 0-3. The series isn’t over. They’ve won 4 games in a row before. Is it likely? No. Is it possible? Yes.

        But I highly disagree with “they always fizzle out…” No, they don’t. We’ve been spoiled with championships around here for 25 years. That doesn’t happen when teams always fizzle.

  26. The look of the sky and the sun says it should be 78 with a 73 dew point this early morning and then you open the door and …..

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