Wednesday May 24 2023 Forecast (7:08AM)

64 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 24-28)

Today is interruption day in our latest stretch of dry weather. It will take place when a sharp cold front pushes through from north northwest to south southeast later today, bringing showers and possibly a thunderstorm to the region, highest coverage from southern NH into northern MA but coverage dropping off to the south as the support and moisture will start to run out. What won’t run out is the push of cooler air behind the front for later tonight and tomorrow, but first we get a brief warm-up today. Exception: South Coast is cooler today due to a pre-frontal southerly wind off the ocean. Also, what’s become a familiar site, the Canadian wildfire smoke, will once again be in our sky today, filtering the sun before the front’s clouds arrive. This smoke plume will be pushed south of the region Thursday, but some cold air stratocumulus clouds may blot the sun out instead at times as a gusty northerly breeze blows. As we head through Friday and into the Memorial Day Weekend, we’ll see high pressure bringing fair weather to the region with a gradual warm-up, but coastal areas can still see some sea breeze development Friday and Saturday, while by Sunday a more established southerly wind would be warmer for all except the South Coast.

TODAY: Smoke-filtered sun into afternoon before clouds advance northwest to southeast followed by widespread showers and slight thunder chance mid to late afternoon southern NH / north central MA and late afternoon to early evening southeastward from there but becoming less widespread. Highs 68-75, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW in southern NH and northern MA by the end of the day.

TONIGHT: Clouds early with lingering showers South Coast region, otherwise clearing, but some clouds may return from north to south late. Lows 45-52. Wind shifting to NW-N 5-15 MPH through the rest of the region.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 58-65. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind N under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 63-70, coolest coastal areas. Wind NW to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83 except cooler South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 29 – JUNE 2)

Dry weather holds for Memorial Day (May 29) with warmest inland and a cooling sea breeze at the coast with high pressure holding over the region. An upper trough brings the chance of a few pop up showers May 30 and 31. Fair and seasonable weather is expected for the first couple days of June as high pressure moves back in.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 3-7)

High pressure will be the main player at the the surface while a weak upper trough dominates. The mildest weather should occur early period, but Canadian high pressure pushes cooler air into the region for mid period, maybe with a shower threat at transition time, before warmer air tries to make a come-back with clouds and a shower chance toward late period.

64 thoughts on “Wednesday May 24 2023 Forecast (7:08AM)”

  1. Model score card

    00z operational GFS, ECMWF, GEM all dry Saturday thru Monday.

    06z GFS continues the same theme.

  5. Thanks, TK.

    It’s a bit unusual to have so many nights in the upper 40s in late May. At least, that’s what I think. It’s certainly pleasant sleeping weather.

    1. Indeed.

      I’ve had the heat on in the car in the mornings, driving to school.

      I agree its been very pleasant and a very, very, very nice May. Considering what we can still get in May, its been outstanding.

    1. I don’t know if the typhoon went through an eyewall replacement cycle yesterday or it underwent a bit of shear, but on satellite and somewhat on radar, looked a bit less intense yesterday.

      Also seemed to track slightly further north than expected.

      1. I hope so. A church friend mentioned her niece is a nurse and currently working in Guam. Have you seen any reports of damage? Do you know of a source I could send to her.

        Thank you

        1. I hope everything goes ok for your church friend’s niece !

          As of yet, I haven’t seen much updated info on how they have fared because I think they are still in it.

  7. The heat has turned on in our building four times since last week. Unusual, but not unprecedented. We all can remember June 1 and 2, 2015. That was the latest the heat turned on since I moved here in 2003.

    While we mostly missed out on the northerly/northwesterly during the winter, we’re not missing out on it this month.

    1. I’m trying to remember June 1 2015. I’m thinking it was quite cold though. I do remember heat for most of June 1982 and a good portion 2011.

  8. Thank you TK. Although I’m hearing s but more about fruit tree damage (here and to our north) we have certainly had and are having a glorious spring.

  10. Morning , thanks Tk . So Tk I’m just curious are you not in agreement regarding a really hot summer as was mentioned by Judah & Harvey last night . Judah was saying I think 20-25 days over 90. Also mentioned a good tip to wash those A/C filters out regularly. I’m not sure how to post the information here if anyone wanted to hear the conversation. Hope all is well with each & everyone of you .

    2. The latest run of the Extended ECMWF Ensemble goes out to July 5th. Of the 51 members, only ONE has more than 2 days at 90 or above in Boston between now at then. The majority have zero. Assuming it’s right, you’d need, that means you’d need nearly all of the 20-25 days to happen during July/August/early September. The seasonal version of that same model (issued May 1) shows Boston just 0.5 degrees above normal in July, and 0.4 degrees above normal in August.

  11. Mawar did NOT make landfall on Guam. The center passed just to the north of the island. However, after an eyewall replacement cycle yesterday, the northern half of the storm eroded, so nearly all of the strong winds and rain were in the southern half of the storm, which went directly over the island. Guam International Airport reported sustained winds of 71 mph with a gust to 105 mph before the sensor failed. They reported over 6″ of rain, and the pressure bottomed out at 970.9 mb. Andersen AFB, at the northern tip of the island, stopped reporting yesterday afternoon.

    According to the latest advisory, top winds are still near 140 mph, and it is expected to start strengthening again as it pulls away from the Northern Mariana Islands.

    Longer range models show it could be a potential threat around the middle of next week to anywhere from northern Luzon, to Taiwan to the Ryukyu Islands to possibly southern Japan.

    1. Too strong in Boston area, imho

      See below for RRFS A version which looks more reasonable. 🙂

  13. I know that the ensembles are the way to go on the long range, not the Op run.

    I’d be curious to know if the ensembles showing few 90F days in Boston is due to the seabreeze, while it could be hot just away from the immediate coast. As an example, today’s 00z run has 90F heat for 2 days out of the next 10, except for at Logan.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfct-imp&rh=2023052400&fh=210&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfct-imp&rh=2023052400&fh=186&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    1. Only 1 of the 51 member has more than 2 90-degree days between now and July 5 in Bedford as well, and the majority have none.

  16. Thanks TK
    This day in weather history goes back to 1963 when an F3 in CT happened. My mom told me about this tornado as my mom uncle and grandparents went down to the basement just before they were ready to sit down and have dinner. Thankfully no damage done to the house. My mom would live through another tornado with me on July 10, 1989.

    https://twitter.com/NWSBoston/status/1661356371894489089

  17. There’s been 21.8 inches of snow atop Mt. Washington this month. This is about twice the average amount. With the vigorous cold front they will surely add at least a little to the May count, as some snow showers/squalls are in the forecast.

    1. A friend golfed in Woodstock VT several days ago. She said there were snow flurries when she was in the first hole.

    2. It is the 11st snowiest May on record (since 1948) on the Rockpile. The normal is 12.9 inches. The record for May, set back in 1997 is an astonishing 95.8 inches. In 2nd place is 52.2 inches in 1967.

      1. I’m repeating. Not surprising. My dad said Memorial Day was Massachusetts weekend on Tuckerman.

  19. Does anyone have comments about what I posted as I’m curious what folks think .

    2. I did on yesterday’s. I very much disagree with Dr. Judah this time. I think he’s got the forecast reversed, especially the first part of the summer (later remains to be seen pending several factors yet t.b.d.). He’s got ridge / trough / ridge. I have trough / ridge / trough. The latter pattern is more likely in the set-up we have now and going well into if not through June, and I don’t foresee anything major to boot it out of this regime. My forecast has support from CFS, CANSIPS, and ECMWF at this time.

    3. It is because of TKs expertise and track record that I enjoy this blog. Out of both the knowledge that TK is excellent and out of respect for him and that knowledge that I will put more stock on his view on this.

  21. RRFS performing admirably on this line of showers (and a few t-storms). Promising short range model, soon-to-replace HRRR.

  22. I would like to preface this share with some caveats…

    I am going to post a link to a map that I don’t want you to take verbatim because it is a 768 hour forecast. It’s from the CFS and it is the 500 millibar height anomaly forecast for June 25th.

    With all the usual cautions about long range forecasting and guidance that goes out this far I still will say that this model has done a fairly decent job sniffing out the patterns well in advance for a while. Not perfect, but not terrible.

    This particular forecast may be somewhat overdone but it does show the general idea of why I am very hesitant to go with a lot of warm to hot weather heading into the early summer.

    This is not a hot pattern at all if this is anywhere close to being right, pretty much for the entire country but especially for the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes into the Northeast. I think what you are seeing here is a reflection of early El Niño and a persistence of the pattern that has been sending us several Canadian cold fronts with high pressure building across eastern Canada and keeping the temperatures from getting too warm for any length of time.

    This is the general idea on the pattern that I expect for the weeks ahead of us. Where it has been warm to hot and dry in Canada it will likely stay that way. But just because it is warm to hot up there does not translate into heat for everybody. In fact that ridge that you see makes it more likely that troughing takes place further east and south east driving cool air masses into the northeastern US via eastern Canada and even rooted all the way to Greenland. Until I see strong evidence to make me think otherwise, this is the way I am leaning.

    https://photos.app.goo.gl/s59zRUUL5aEEuyng8

  23. Rain held together reasonably well, but no thunder. Just drove out to Natick and it rained the whole way out here.

  25. Took off and … went right through the front, or so it seemed. For some reason the plane first went west and then north before heading east/northeast. Can’t stand turbulence. Can’t stand flying. But it is the most efficient method for me to get to where I need to go.

    2. If it was after 6pm, it’s because winds were W or NW. You always take off into the wind, to produce extra lift on the wings. Likewise, you always land into the wind, to produce extra drag on the winds to slow you down.

  26. Gutted by the death of Tina Turner. I realize that rock and pop stars aren’t immortal. But since the loss of Bowie in 2016, there have been so many who have passed away. Most were in their 70s and 80s, but still.

    1. Joshua, I understand. It seems to be never ending. There is now one hell of a chorus in heaven.

  27. SAK, it was indeed after 6pm. Thanks for the explanation.

    The ride has been consistently bumpy, but not like it was just after take-off. I’m now several hundred miles south of Greenland.

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