Friday May 26 2023 Forecast (7:11AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (MAY 26-30)

This 5 day forecast covers the “extended” Memorial Day Weekend for those using today and/or Tuesday as extra(s), and I can’t find any raindrops to talk about. It’s going to be dry for the stretch for all travel, outdoor activity, and of course the Memorial Day parades and services that take place in many locations. The weather pattern will be dominated by high pressure, with our temperatures each day determined by high position and resultant wind direction. We start with a chilly morning today with high pressure over us after a night of radiational cooling and recover to the 60s today with a cooler coastal sea breeze. The warm-up continues for Saturday and Sunday with 70s for most areas Saturday and 80+ high temps for many for Sunday. But an exception for Sunday will be a cooler South Coast with a southwesterly air flow. A back-door cold front sneaks through the region Sunday night and early Monday and replaces that air flow with a northeast to east one Monday and Tuesday with a cooling trend. I already spoke of no rain, but we’ll also be hard pressed to find much in the way of cloud cover too during these days. A few clouds may skirt southeastern NH and northeastern MA for a brief time today and a few fair-weather clouds can pop up in the blue sky (absent of wildfire smoke) elsewhere today. I think 100% sun is our Saturday. Sunday may see a few lower clouds flirt with the South Coast due to the southwesterly air flow, and it is later Sunday and/or Monday into Tuesday when we could see some Canadian wildfire smoke mixing back into our air aloft. Also some high clouds from low pressure far to our south may fan across the southern sky by Monday and Tuesday.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

TONIGHT: Clear. Patchy shallow fog in valleys/swamps/bogs. Lows 45-52. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84 except 70-77 South Coast and 63-70 Cape Cod / Islands. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH evening, becoming variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Mostly sunny but some increase in clouds possible around Cape Cod and potential high altitude smoke returning. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 47-54. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 63-70, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 31 – JUNE 4)

High pressure sinks back to the south May 31 / June 1 with fair weather and a warm-up. Cold front from Canada brings a shower or thunderstorm threat on June 2 followed by fair and cooler weather for the June 3-4 weekend based on the current expected timing.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 5-9)

Similar pattern. Tries to warm up after a cool start – maybe with some unsettled weather, before another Canadian high delivers the cool later in the period.

39 thoughts on “Friday May 26 2023 Forecast (7:11AM)”

    1. All of them? For every day later next week? 😉

      I saw one, with an 89 for one day. 🙂

      Chop a few off that and limit it to one day (June 1).

  7. Up to 62 here.

    Logan is 61 where the wind has shifted light NE at 8 mph.

    We shall see what effect that ocean has today. No matter “should” be warmer at my location than at the airport.

  9. 67 here. Wind is whipping. Although I am not sure when it isn’t windy here. I dropped my granddaughter at her lesson barn for a trail ride a bit ago and the wind was whistling through the barn. I love the sound

  10. I think, in the last 23 years, we have camped at Myles Standish during Memorial Day weekend, 22 of them.

    And I’m pretty sure more than half of them have had at least 1 day that’s very cool, cloudy or both.

    A few to a handful have had soaking rains.

    I don’t remember 3 sunny, mild to warm days.

    A gift for sure.

  11. Thanks TK
    It is shaping up to be one of the best memorial day weekends we have had in a while.

    1. Also no Murphy’s Law for a change. He’s focusing on my relatives in the Mid-Atlantic for this holiday weekend.

      I suppose we’ll pay for it later down the road on the next 3-day weekends. 😉

      1. What the Carolinas are getting this weekend is what our memorial day weekend was back in 2021.

  14. NHC will have a new director and unlike several recent years where the stats have been skewed by naming things that were not even tropical, they are going to get away from that and actually start calling things what they really are. It’s about time.

  15. A lot of below normal temps forecast on the CPC 8-14 today. Most of the East and across the entire South.

    1. I have a good feeling that Mrs. JPD is going to like much of the upcoming summer. 🙂

      Not to mention myself as well. 😉

  18. Mawar is the first May supertyphoon in the WPAC since 2015, which was also an El Nino year. The WPAC is more active in El Nino years while the Atlantic tends to be on the quiet side. I think these areas will fit those “typicals” this season. The Pacific has been in a quiet phase for quite some time, partially due to more La Nina activity than El Nino, but this season will likely be more active there.

    Looked over the 12z guidance – no change to make to my forecast other than I may need to lower Monday’s temps slightly on the next update.

    Also, some hints that the 2 eastern Canadian high pressure deliveries following that may be rather impressive for this time of year.

    We saved a lot on heating bills this past winter .. 🙂 .. and now we may save on air conditioning bills at least into early summer .. 🙂 .. good news!

    1. Our heating is next to nothing. Ac Is a whole other story. Still battling with national grid for a $1000 bill last august. I’d love a not so much ac summer.

      1. Let’s hope! I don’t think we’ll be “heat-free” this summer, but I think we’ll just have difficulty sustaining anything.

        A good model of the pattern is actually this one right now, since I expect persistence perhaps through June and beyond.

        Coolish yesterday/today, warming trend briefly Saturday-Sunday before we cool right back down Monday. We rebound toward midweek (maybe that one very warm day Thursday) then right back down again. And the cool-downs tend to last longer than the warm-ups in this regime.

        With all I have to do this summer I wouldn’t mind this pattern for as long as we can keep it. 🙂

    2. So are you leaning to below avg activity in the Atlantic or closer to normal? Most are leaning to around average in the Atlantic. I am thinkin the ranges of 13-16 TS , 5-9 H 2-5MH

      1. Leaning below. Around 13 / 5 / 1 ..

        Current reasoning:
        El Niño. Early and above normal Saharan dust season which will limit development where upper level conditions would otherwise be favorable. Cyclic troughing in the Caribbean and western Atlantic which is a hostile environment for storms to develop and rips apart existing systems. Generally above normal wind shear. Will make it very difficult for storms to get organized.

          1. I’ll address that in my winter outlook sometime in late November. Right now the focus is on the late spring / summer pattern.

      1. I don’t mind the smoke as much as I feel badly for the people in the area of the fires and for the area as a whole.

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