Saturday May 27 2023 Forecast (8:03AM)

38 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 27-31)

Down the home stretch of May 2023 we go with a dry stretch to go with it. This is driven by a Rex block with a high pressure ridge over the Northeast and low pressure trough over the Southeast. The position of surface high pressure and resultant predominant wind direction helps determine day to day temperatures in this dry weather pattern which encompasses Memorial Day Weekend in its entirety and the final 2 days of the month of May also. Today’s weather will feature 100% sunshine and a warm-up over yesterday, with the cooler spot being along the beaches where a sea breeze develops. Sunday will be the warmest day region-wide with most areas in the 80s for high temps, but the exception this time will be a cooler South Coast due to a southwesterly wind. A cold front will come through without fanfare Sunday night and set up a broad scale north to northeast flow across the region with a significantly cooler Memorial Day. Some high clouds may fan across our southern sky from low pressure well to the south Sunday and Monday, and a few lower clouds from increased moisture on the southwesterly wind may visit parts of the South Coast during Sunday into Sunday night before they get pushed out by Monday. A Canadian high pressure area will then sink slowly southward Tuesday-Wednesday with a slow warm-up.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84 except 70-77 South Coast and 63-70 Cape Cod / Islands. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH evening, becoming variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Mostly sunny but some increase in clouds possible around Cape Cod and potential high altitude smoke returning. Highs 63-70, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 47-54. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 47-54. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind W up to 10 MPH but possible coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 1-5)

Large scale pattern Rex block breaks down and is replaced by an omega block (trough West Coast, ridge upper Midwest and central Canada, trough Canadian Maritimes). This puts our region into a northwesterly air flow and we see a brief spike in temperature to start June as high pressure at the surface shifts to the south. After this a cold front drops out of Canada bringing a shot at a shower or thunderstorm June 2 and a cool-down for the June 3-4 weekend but with dry weather. Shower threat may return late period as a low pressure trough takes more control and a disturbance moves in, but this is lower confidence since it’s much further out in time.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 6-10)

Large scale pattern retrogression is indicated with high pressure moving westward from the central US/Canada into the Rockies while a low pressure trough drifts westward from the Canadian Maritimes into Quebec / Ontario and the US Northeast / Great Lakes. This pattern for our area would be cooler than average and present some chance of shower activity occurring, not necessarily a “rainy” pattern, but a little more unsettled than what we’ve seen.

38 thoughts on “Saturday May 27 2023 Forecast (8:03AM)”

    1. I’ll be out there a lot.

      Among my outdoor plans…

      Today: morning walk with a certain music soundtrack / some outdoor stuff included in a birthday celebration for a friend.

      Sunday: morning walk around my local pond / visit to Hampton Beach late-day / evening.

      Monday: first half of day is given to the Memorial Day parade and ceremonies in Woburn where I will be doing photos for the local pages / later-in-the day return to Hampton as the weekend crowds depart for a walk with my son and a beach pizza treat (since he can’t go up with me Sunday).

  4. Thanks TK.

    It’s going to be nice to have a Canadian flow for the foreseeable future except for their smoke.

    I do wonder though if at some point those with respiratory issues could be at risk with daily smoke from the skies in the coming weeks and months. Air quality?

    1. There has been a number of comments regarding the beautiful sunrises/sunsets due to the Canadian smoke but for me personally, I much prefer any sky beauty due to “natural” occurrences and not “man-made” ones.

      1. It still has not been determined whether that fire has a human source or was started by lightning.

  5. Thank you, TK. I’d like to second Tom’s comments. Great discussions. I am undoubtedly forgetting but seems a while since I’ve heard rhe term Rex block. It makes me smile as I tend to picture a huge tyrannosaurus in the sky.

  6. Let me get this straight, there’s a low sitting over the Gulf Stream off the Carolina coast that the models are analyzing as warm core, it’s been producing sustained winds of 40-45 mph with gusts to 60 mph since yesterday, and NHC is calling it a 0% chance for development? There have been storms over the past few years that looked (and were) exponentially weaker than this that got names.

    If this thing could fire up a few thunderstorms south and east of the center, NHC would be more likely to throw a name on it. That’s the only thing holding them back right now IMHO.

    1. I hope the new regime isn’t going too far in the other direction. Before, they’d name stuff that clearly wasn’t nameable, now they seem to be holding back on naming things that deserve them.

  7. Thanks, TK.

    Happy Memorial Day weekend to all at WHW.

    It’s Whit Monday (Pentecost) weekend here, with very similar weather – sunny, breezy, fairly warm (low 70s today) during the day and cool (upper 40s) at night.

  8. According to the PSAs on the radio (Smokey the Bear) “ninety percent of all wildfires are started by humans.”

    I’ll go with the odds versus lightning. 😉

    “Only YOU can prevent wildfires.” 🙂

    Back when I was a kid it was “Only YOU can prevent forest fires.”

    Btw, so nice to see a “blue” sky today.

    1. “Back when I was a kid it was “Only YOU can prevent forest fires.””

      Back when I was a kid, a phone was connected to the wall with a cord. Things change.

      1. My phone was connected to the wall until about 6 months ago.
        Now it it connected to a Comcast tower. 🙂

        1. We still have a landline, technically, but it hasn’t worked since the phone was fried with a lightning strike on 3-29-2020. 😉

        2. I can’t bring myself to let my landline number go. It has been Mac’s and mine since we bought our home. But I don’t have landline phones. I forward calls to that number to my cell. They are also easier to block that way

        1. We did also. Mac’s cousins home in Stowe has one last time we were there maybe 8 years ago. They may still have one

      3. My guess is Philip may have mentioned Smokey because it was an important message we were taught as kids that is now lost. But then our kids don’t know who Hansel and Gretel are or Johnny Appleseed or Paul Bunyan. Like the I portent message taught by Smokey, those messages are lost also.

    2. Technically, many fires stared by lightning are due to man made climate change. And yes a smoke is still correct

  9. Good afternoon and thank you TK.

    74 here ans beautiful!!! I can feel the sea breeze, but it isn’t
    cooling much. 73 at the airport with SE wind.

    1. Was just out setting up a table and chairs for a little cook out.

      Of course I was moving around and lifting, but it felt like
      about 110 out there and not the 76 it is here now.

      Still 73 at the airport.

      Ocean: 56.84

  10. TK in response to your response to me yesterday.
    Do u think the El-Nino will just completely out do the MDR warmth and neutral PDO? Also I would have thought the Saharan dust would be less than the last couple of years due to the above normal PRecip over the Saharan currently. By this time last year we have already had decent Saharan dust events moving into the Caribbean. Also when u said Cyclic troughing in the Caribbean and western Atlantic. Do u mean the TUTT? It seems the TUTT has been protecting the NE Caribbean Since I been here in the VI.

    1. Yes, mostly.

      Dust may be a little less than last year, but still a factor.

      TUTT will play a role.

      Gonna stay with this idea until I see something to sway me, and it will have to be pretty strong evidence. 🙂

  11. Today’s 8-14 has even a larger area of negative departure temps forecast for the East & South. Cool times ahead. Good thing the sun angle is maxing out during the coming weeks!

  12. So I’m curious if all the folks who declared themselves non-Celtics fans after they lost a couple games in the current series are now back on the bandwagon with a 3-2 series and an opportunity to force a game 7. 🙂

    1. I love all sports, but I’m with the Celtics when they were really struggling in the 1990s.

      I was in shock at 0-3. 🙂

  15. Hot one today as we worked hard on two jobs from 7:30 – 5:30 tonight . I am exhausted & A/C is on in bedroom , love this time of year !!!

    1. High temps near 80 there Saturday. At least the dew point was below 50, which is bone dry for this time of year.

  16. So I don’t watch basketball. I was tempted to watch tonight but I can also be superstitious. I was afraid if I suddenly watched I’d jinx them.

    Silly? Undoubtedly

    But I did what I did other games. I checked scores.

    I cannot imagine any fan not having apoplexy throughout.

    1. I was listening to the last few min of the game from my car in my brother’s driveway just before I let the dog out… 🙂

  17. I just got to listen to the last 16.9 seconds on the radio, but what a roller coaster ride it was from then on!

    1. Haha! A very vivid and classic example, yes.

      I hope they can pull out game 7 and I’m totally ok if it’s less dramatic………..

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