41 thoughts on “Tuesday May 30 2023 Forecast (7:30AM)”

1. Thanks TK !

2. Thanks, TK.

3. good morning and thank you TK.

4. Thank you, TK!

5. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

   1. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=eus&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

      If one looks hard and knows about where Halifax is on the southern and western coastline of Nova Scotia, what looks like a fog bank is a MASSIVE brush fire near Halifax.

      A piece of that is seen entering eastern Mass’ coastline on the first satellite link.

      1. Halifax is on the eastern coastline of Nova Scotia. That fire is more than 100 miles southwest of Halifax.

         1. Thanks SAK !!

         2. Plus, you’ll have to forgive me.

            My wife has relatives in Cape Breton, Nova Scotia, so I do make the mistake of judging other parts of Nova Scotia relative to the location of Cape Breton. 🙂 🙂 🙂

            1. You may have confused Halifax with Yarmouth, where the ferry from Portland goes to. It’s on the southwest coast, and the fire is not far east of there.

               1. Indeed and thanks !

                  1. Just to clarify, there is another fire that has broken out not far from Halifax, but that is not the one generating the smoke plume heading our way.

            2. Tons of Mac’s relatives and history of his family in that area also. It sure is a beautiful corner of the world

6. Thanks TK

7. Time once again for me to pay more than just copy editor attention to the blog :). First of three such times this summer, but each one is quite short. Still, let the countdown begin 🙂

8. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850t_anom&rh=2023053000&fh=210&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

   GFS has a pattern change or a different pattern starting in the medium range.

   But, at what cost ?

   Look at the 850 mb temp anomolies projected over Hudson Bay and parts of the arctic.

   Was it ever hot over the southern half of Hudson Bay yesterday. 90F over land, figure that cooled to the 50s over the Bay.

   Hudson Bay is supposed to ice out in early-mid August.

   At the rate warm airmasses are visiting this year, it might be iced out by mid July. That’s still many weeks of some strong sun to warm up what should remain a chilly body of water.

   Hudson Bay is one thing that helps cool us off some in mid July through August. I just don’t know what kind of condition that cool source region will be in this year.

9. On this date in 1908, a weakening tropical storm with top winds near 40 mph crossed extreme eastern Long Island before making landfall very close to Groton, CT. This is the earliest that a tropical system has ever made landfall in NY or New England.

   Just 24 hours earlier, the system made landfall as a hurricane with winds of 75 mph near Cape Hatteras, NC. This is one of only 4 storms to reach hurricane strength in the Atlantic during the month of May.

   Here’s the track of that system: https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#map=3.88/34.66/-73.9&search=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

   My annual start of hurricane season blog post will be up tomorrow, with updated stats about how seriously overdue we are for a direct hit.

10. Thanks TK.

11. From the NYT (“The Morning” – a collection of news items compiled by editors), I’ve excerpted a number of paragraphs from a piece by meteorologist Judson Jones:

    This summer is likely to be hot in many parts of the U.S., and not just because it is typically the season of swelter.

    Ocean temperatures, soil moisture, forecast models and long-term trends are all contributing factors in predicting a warmer-than-normal summer this year. The coasts of New England could be hot because the Atlantic Ocean already feels like summer, while the center of scorching temperatures will once again almost certainly be the Southwest.

    I can almost hear the groan from those of you who are skeptical that meteorologists can deliver a good forecast seven days out, let alone for an entire summer. But before you send me, a meteorologist, accusatory emails, allow me to explain how predictions for an entire season work.

    Experts at the National Weather Service create the forecasts by considering the land, water and atmospheric conditions that could influence and control weather patterns over the coming months. They use words like “leaning” if they believe there is a slight chance of temperatures or rainfall being outside the norm.

    If you find yourself this summer in an area where above-average heat is expected — like New York, Boston, Atlanta, Miami, Houston, Los Angeles or Seattle, to name a few — it doesn’t mean every day will be that way. What the experts are suggesting is that, over the next three months, there is at least a chance, maybe even a likelihood, that it will be warmer than it has been in the past three decades.

    Forecasters are expecting a hotter summer in the Northeast because ocean temperatures near the coast are already much higher than usual. That might make for a pleasant swim at New England beaches; it will also increase the air temperature. Because coastal waters are a major factor in driving up temperatures, experts are less sure whether it will be a warmer summer inland, in places like western New York and Pennsylvania.

    1. Thanks, Joshua. Hope you are enjoying your vacation.

       This makes sense if only because the majority of years of this century have been in the above “normal” category.

       1. I’m enjoying my time here, though it’s not been a vacation. It’s been good to see my daughter. We work together at the same large table, and then take walking breaks. Of course, this past weekend we did enjoy some time off.

          1. Sounds like a special time.

12. As currently projected by GFS for Friday ….

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfct-imp&rh=2023053012&fh=75&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Approaching 90F just inland by 15z

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023053012&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2023053012&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    By 18z, back door cool front and a bit of an inland thermal circulation with developing showers and storms

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023053012&fh=81&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Inland thundershowers btwn now cooled off coastline and very warm/hot interior (21z)

    1. And chilly (50s?) Saturday along the immediate coast, but also somewhat (low 60s?) inland, which is what TK has in his forecast above 🙂

       1. And that weather DISGUSTS me this time of year!!!!

13. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=gm&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

14. 64 here now after being 65 about an hour ago,

15. TK – Is May the only month in which the word “penultimate” used?

    I actually had to look that word up as it means “next to last”.

    1. Well, then. I could apply to the next to last day of any month.

       I’ve always like that word. I first used that in conjunction with computer programming referring to the next to the last record
       in a file. 🙂

    2. I’m not sure why it would be exclusive to May. Every month and anything with a count of 2 or more has a “next-to-last” or “penultimate” member in the set.

16. The sky just got that Smokey yellow look but we can smell smoke. Would the fires from Canada cause that? I’m a bit worried about a brush fire nearby

    1. I cannot only smell it, I can taste it. I know we have an air quality alert but this seems excessive

    2. Could be a local fire near you, but also could be from the Nova Scotia Fire. TK did mention low level smoke

       and the third will be a plume of lower altitude smoke from a wildlfire in southern Nova Scotia, and this third one may be mixed close enough to ground level to detect by sense of smell as well as reduced surface visibility.

       1. Ah ha. I missed that and that has to be what it is. I went up high and it is everywhere. Thanks JPD. Thanks TK

17. Photos from the uxbridge soccer fields. They are not great but even the hills in the distance are always sharp. Mark, you have been here. Smoke is everywhere. I’m glad it isn’t a local fire. We have had a couple bad ones in the last couple of days. But wow. I feel awful for folks in the fire area.

    https://imgur.com/a/IDndGyS

18. I think we are in a smoke alert of some sort now to midnight. Not sure if it’s actually called a smoke alert.

    1. “Air Quality Alert” for “fine particulates” (in this case, smoke) and it’s in effect until midnight

19. CPC 6-10 & 8-14 both below normal for temps.
    EPS indicates no significant heat into mid June.

    Am I surprised? Not at all. Strong signal for this for a while.
    And I don’t see any reason to think it changes much into summer.

    Everything I said previously stands as is at this time.

    Today’s 6-10 day CPC is almost the opposite of what they were calling for for the same time period when it was in the Week 3-4 outlook. For the record, I was not on board with that outlook then. I thought it was too warm.

20. Thanks, TK.

21. Absolutely gorgeous morning for a walk at Bass Rocks, with sunlight sparkling on the water!

22. New weather post…

Comments are closed.