Wednesday May 31 2023 Forecast (7:30AM)

76 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 31 – JUNE 4)

A blanket of broken stratus clouds along the South Coast to the MA South Shore and more broken to scattered stratus closer to the I-90 belt will erode early to mid morning, revealing a hazy sun. Where there are no clouds present, the hazy sun that was visible from the start of the day will remain so, with the “haze” once again a mix of wildfire smoke near the surface from Nova Scotia (moved in from the east) and aloft from western Canada (having been moving in from the west and north). Today warms up a little over yesterday which still held some ocean-modified air in more noticeable form. This warm up will continue Thursday into Friday as high pressure sinks to the south and delivers more south to west wind across the region. This, of course, is a direct ocean breeze for the South Coast which will be coolest those two days. The next thing to figure out is the timing of a strong back-door cold front dropping south southwestward via the Gulf of Maine to cross the region late Friday to early Saturday. Current call is late evening to early overnight (10PM-2AM) window for the front to cross the region. This timing is late for the front to have a direct impact on shower and thunderstorm chances for Friday afternoon, so for now my leaning is to go for just isolated shower and thunderstorm activity from daytime heating and slightly increased humidity on Friday afternoon, with a general band of showers coming through Friday evening to early overnight with the front. Behind the front should come a period of stratus clouds and patchy drizzle, along with a few lingering shower that can develop over the top of the shallow wedge of cool air with some lingering warm air above it, before the atmosphere stabilizes with the northeasterly air flow through the balance of Saturday. Enough dry air should work down from the northeast to at least partially clear the cloud cover for a sun/cloud mix for midday on, but will fine-tune that as it can be a difficult detail to forecast a few days out. This trend continues into Sunday but as this happens we’ll be seeing the arrival of upper level low pressure from the east (retrogression of features as mentioned in previous discussions). This brings in colder air above and despite the drier air working in, there can be enough moisture for solar heating to trigger the development of diurnal fair-weather clouds, so we’ll probably not have a totally sunny Sunday either. We will be rain-free though, and a little less chilly than Saturday but still cooler than normal for early June.

TODAY: Lots of clouds early to mid morning MA South Shore to South Coast, otherwise smoke-filtered sun. Highs 77-84 except 70-77 South Coast. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Additional areas of smoke. Some clouds re-develop mainly south of I-90. Lows 51-58. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90 except 75-82 South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny start, then a sun/cloud mix. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 84-91, cooler Cape Cod and a few other coastal locations. Wind W up to 10 MPH can still yield to local coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely evening to the north of I-90 and mostly overnight from I-90 belt south. Areas of drizzle and light fog overnight especially eastern coastal locations. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to NE and increasing to 10-20 MPH from northeast to southwest beginning late evening.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Areas of drizzle favoring eastern locations early in the day. Chance of a few showers favoring the South Coast region in the morning. Highs 58-65, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts through midday.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 60-67, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 5-9)

An upper level trough will dominate the weather pattern. This will bring some episodes of scattered showers but right now thinking no big rain events and definitely no early heat with temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 10-14)

A broad upper level trough is expected to be in control with a few episodes of showers and possible thunderstorms and no significant heat. Temperatures below to near normal.

76 thoughts on “Wednesday May 31 2023 Forecast (7:30AM)”

  1. Thanks, TK…

    Listening to Rob Carolan this morning. He said that the models have shifted to a more unsettled day on Saturday.

    Are you seeing this? I am keeping our principal updated as our outdoor graduation is Saturday at 6 pm.

    2. Yes I saw that on a model or two, but my thoughts are in what’s written above and remain unchanged at this time. 🙂

  3. Thanks TK !

    Quite the warm airmass above us.

    As of an hour ago, it was …..

    55.3F on the summit of Mt Washington
    65.6F at 4,000 ft
    71.3F at 3,000 ft

    temps courtesy from the Auto Road

        1. I’m laughing because I provided temps that will affect like 3 people and you gave something much more relevant to a lot more people 🙂 🙂 🙂

  4. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk1.wk2_latest.NAsfcT.png

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.png

    I wonder if the west Pacific typhoon eventually to become a strong extratropical system retrogrades the pattern to a northwest Canada ridge and a general US trof (week 2)

    But, the pattern seems to project to relax or deamplify going towards weeks 3 and 4, with some of the very anomolous western Canada warmth easing and the US moderating.

  5. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G18&sector=sea&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

    Keep in mind, western Canada has had somewhat of a reprieve the last 7-10 days. Alberta had a decent rain event and overall its been more trofy, with clouds and scattered rains. And yet, the upper right in this loop shows a lot of fires and smoke.

    Next 2 weeks, western Canada ridge returns which is going to probably make thinks worse.

    I suppose smokey, hazy skies are somewhat of a summer norm, but I think we’re really going to see it more pronounced this meteorological/astronomical summer.

  6. Courtesy Ch 5 & AJ Burnett (caption below the link), here’s a look at the low clouds to the south earlier this morning…

    https://photos.app.goo.gl/sF9ZMPrhtNM52Eb7A

    “The traffic copter was up over the Mass Pike this morning, giving us a unique perspective on the low clouds along and south of the Pike.

    For bearings, we’re looking toward the west, with the Charles River is just to the right of the Pike, over Nonantum (Newton). The Daly Ice Rink and Newton Yacht Club are between the Pike and the river.”

        1. The hurricane is referenced, not directly by name, as others are also not directly named, but included in the statistics.

          Naming them all is cumbersome in the context of that post.

        2. It wasn’t the last one to hit, it wasn’t the strongest, it wasn’t a major at landfall, it wasn’t the latest in the year, so there really was no need to mention it by name, as it doesn’t really stand out among all the other storms that have hit.

    3. Thanks for this, SAK!

      I was recently wondering which year the esplanade concert got canceled because of the hurricane nearby, and you answered my question — 2014.

  10. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfct-imp&rh=2023053112&fh=51&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    12z GFS staying consistent on warming up quickly thru 15z (late morning Friday) …. then potentially developing first showers/storms by 18z

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023053112&fh=54&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    then, by later in the afternoon ……

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=refcmp&rh=2023053112&fh=57&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    1. THIS IS SICK!!!!!! BIZARRO WORLD!!!!! SICK SICK SICK!!!!
      Tell me it ain’t so!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!_)@#_)@(*#_!*#(@*!)(@#*)(!@*#)(*!)(@#*)(!@*#)(!*@)(#*)!(@*#)(!*@#)(*!)(@#*)!(@*#)(!*@()#*!)(@#*)(!*@#)(*!)(@*#)(!*@#@)*@*#)(!*@)#(*!)(@#*)(!**!)(@#*)(!*@#)(*!@*@*#)(!&*@()#*)(!@#$*)(!*@)(#*)(!@*#)(!*@)(#*)!(@*#)(!*)@(#*)!(@*#)(!*@)(#*!)(@#*!*@#)(*!()@#*)(!*@#)(*!@#)(*!)(@#*)(!*)@(#*)(!*@#)(!*@)(#*)!(*@#)(*!)(@#*)(!@*#)(!*@#)(*!)(@#*)(!*@#()*!)(@*#)(!*@#)(!)(@#*)(!*@#)(!@)(#*)!(*@#)(!*@#)(*!@#*)(!*@#)(*!)(*@!*)(@#*)(!*@#)*@#)(*!)(*@#)(!**)(!*@#)(*!)@#(*!)(@#*)(!*@#)(*!*(#*@*#!!(@**@#)!(#

      What is this? The NORTH POLE EXPRESS!!!!!!!

        1. highest elevations middle of next week if the whole feature cuts off like this run suggests ? 🙂 🙂 🙂

          Pattern may be susceptible to something like this next week.

          We could use the rain.

    1. Just late spring in New England.
      Happened before. Will happen again. 🙂

      I love super sharp fronts. Always have, always will.

        1. Yes ! I complain too much about spring weather, but its always interesting and fun to try to figure out the changes.

        2. One of the reasons to HATE IT HERE! Although generally speaking I like it here. JUST not at times in the Spring!!

    2. Just reporting the run.

      I do agree with the trend to quite cool Saturday.

      I don’t have a take on the cutoff its showing and for how long it keeps it to our north. Need more runs on that one and to get closer in time before I trust or not trust it.

        1. Good. 🙂

          60F or so Saturday sounds better to me that 48-52F 🙂

          especially if it doesn’t rain and the graduations can take place outside.

          I just know it was bright sun and 65F in Marshfield the first Saturday of June last year because my daughter graduated. It was perfect !!

  17. 12Z NAM for 21Z Saturday,

    This is PUTRID!!!!!!

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sfct-imp&rh=2023053112&fh=81&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    48 degrees for Boston

    18Z or 2PM NO better. Same temp, 48

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sfct-imp&rh=2023053112&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    @_(#*)!(@*#()!**#*)(!@*#)(!*@)(#*!)(@#&*()!)*@(#*)!(@*#)(!*@#)(*!@)(#*)(!@*#)(!*@)#(*!)(@#*)(!*@#)(*!)@(#*)!(*#@)(!@*#)(!)(@#*)(!*@#)(!*@)(#*!)(@*#)(!*@#)(*!()@#*(

    Euro not out yet, but 6Z Euro has 57 for Boston.

      1. 12Z UKMET 51

        The general theme is MUCH cooler Saturday, not matter the model, It’s just a question of degree.

          1. Yes and wouldn’t that be nice! We shall see. With my luck since we are attending an outdoors graduation party, it will be that cold or colder!!!!

  18. On the flip side, both the 12z GFS and Euro project it to be humid here Friday afternoon towards early evening with 60-65F dewpoints.

    1. One would think this combo would spark some pretty potent Thunderstorms, but with a NE wind coming behind the front,
      “Generally” that is NOT the case. Can it still be? yes, but generally, no.

    1. Both models (GFS/Euro) seem to project showers/drizzle around that time Saturday.

      So …… that must indicate clouds.

      I am hearing TK when he says they can overdue the chill. I know he’s right.

      With clouds and a NE wind mixing up the top ocean layer, and the wind coming off the low-mid 50F water temps once mixed, that 54F, 55F along the coast seems reasonable.

      Many miles inland, a little milder.

      But, after tomorrow and the first half of Friday, 54F is gonna feel like 44F. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

      1. Just saw this as before I was just looking at temp.
        This would clearly put the icing on the DISGUSTACAKE!

        If ever I wanted the models to be WRONG, it is NOW!

  20. 12Z Euro has 90 for all inland locations tomorrow, BUT
    79 at Logan with about 84 or 85 here in JP. Sounds about right to me. 🙂

    NAM has mid 80s inland with an even 80 at Logan

  22. 91F in Caribou, ME.

    Because northernmost New England and parts of southern Canada are quite warm to hot. 🙂

  23. Ch. 7 has pretty much a weekend washout including early next week. If I understood correctly, there will be a system from the north that literally sits & spins over us for several days. Is this correct?

    1. it would be just our luck. we shall see.
      We did get a beautiful 3 day Memorial Day Weekend, so consider it payment in full.

  25. I would take tonight’s weekend and early next week forecasts with a grain of salt.

    Cooler, yes. More clouds and precip sometime in this range, yes.

    But I really think we need 1-2 more days of model runs to see how the pattern retrogrades, in terms of where a trof may cut off and for how long.

    There can be huge weather differences based on if it’s nort or south of us.

    1. Eric mentioned on air during his 6:00 broadcast for folks not to bother putting in their A/Cs for at least the next 2 weeks. YIKES!!!

      Another 2009? 😳

      3. 2009 was wet for June & July. We’re not quite there yet since we just finished May. But indications are dry. We’ll see how it goes.

  27. CFS temp forecast for July is well below average. I think we see the pattern setting up. A few nice days and then boom misery for several.

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