Thursday June 1 2023 Forecast (7:26AM)

86 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 1-5)

The story for the first couple days of June: summer teaser. But this will be like a cruel joke from mother nature. Why? The story of the weekend: Much cooler, limited sun, and while mainly dry there are a couple wet weather chances too. We start out with a friendly ridge of high pressure bringing us fair weather and above normal temperatures today into tomorrow. Later tomorrow ahead of an approaching back-door cold front a few showers and thunderstorms can pop up, and then the front crosses the region at night with a more widespread shower swath, a second that may come through early Saturday as the front settles south and some warm air is still riding up over the rather shallow cool air mass initially. I’m still optimistic that enough dry air works in for partial clearing during midday and afternoon Saturday. But with retrograding upper level low pressure moving into the region and surface low pressure organizing off the coast, we’ll get into an increasing northeast to north air flow through Sunday with more coolness, limited sun, and perhaps some drizzle and showers involved, especially in eastern locations of the WHW forecast area. With a a little luck we will have some intervals of drier air to break the clouds up at times Sunday as well. This looks a little more likely early in the week as the upper level low is over us and the surface low is to the east with a cooler northerly air flow and just the chance of a few passing showers Monday.

TODAY: Early-day low clouds MA South Coast / Cape Cod with patchy fog elsewhere, otherwise sunshine with some additional high altitude smoke. Highs 84-91 except cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny start, then a sun/cloud mix. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 84-91, cooler Cape Cod and a few other coastal locations. Wind W up to 10 MPH can still yield to local coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely evening to the north of I-90 and mostly overnight from I-90 belt south. Areas of drizzle and light fog overnight especially eastern coastal locations. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to NE and increasing to 10-20 MPH from northeast to southwest beginning late evening.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Passing showers north to south morning. Chance of drizzle early morning eastern coastal locations. Highs 56-63, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early then cloudy with showers/drizzle overnight. Areas of fog especially coast. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with breaks of sun possible. Showers most likely early in the day but isolated showers still possible later. Highs 58-65, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Passing showers possible. Highs 58-65. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 6-10)

Upper level low pressure dominates the pattern with a northerly air flow becoming more westerly with time. Opportunities for showers at times, but dry more often. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 11-15)

A broad upper level trough is expected to be in control with a few episodes of showers and possible thunderstorms. Temperatures below normal.

86 thoughts on “Thursday June 1 2023 Forecast (7:26AM)”

      1. My son, the dog and I went there for hiking and a few last runs of skiing back on Saturday May 13. It was “only” in the upper 60’s there that day. Wish I could be up there today!

  7. We were away in the Caribbean for an extended Memorial Day weekend and just got back Tuesday night so haven’t had much time to post. We spent 5 days at the Sandals Grande in Antigua. Very nice beach and island. It is not too far east of the Virgin Islands which are pretty lush so I was a bit surprised to see some cactuses growing in parts of the island. Went on a tour Monday and our guide said it is actually fairly dry there. Temperatures were in the mid 80’s under mostly sunny skies each day and it only sprinkled once.

    Got a kick out of the “weather station” posted at our resort and snapped a picture of it 🙂

    https://imgur.com/dl90jse

    1. BTW, Joshua – the locals in Antigua were also celebrating “Whit Monday” (Pentecost) like you mentioned they were in the Netherlands. Driving around the island Monday it looked just like Memorial Day in the US. Lots of locals spending the day at the beaches with tents and grills set up and music playing!

      Hope you have/had a nice trip back.

    2. Oh, one other thing…I asked our tour guide how Barbuda was doing recovering from the hurricane. Seemed like only a few years ago they were leveled by Cat 5 Irma but it has actually almost been 6 years (2017)! He said the island (which unlike Antigua) is flat like a pancake and was completely leveled with every structure destroyed. Most have moved back there now but they are still rebuilding.

  8. Worcester airport is already 79F.

    The you know what spot (I’m not using the adjectives I’m thinking of) is 72F with a SSE wind off the harbah

    1. I’d definitely agree that logan is a really bad choice as far as representing Boston temps, it looks as if a lot of areas in your way are not far from 72. Worcester hit 81 as I was checking temps here

      We are 74 but DP is 56 so feels like a far different 74 than Mays.

      https://imgur.com/a/Dqepc7j

      1. My dew point sensor is reading 60. But I do believe I do NOT have a dew point sensor but rather a humidity sensor and the system calculates the dew point given the humidity and the temperature. I do Believe that humidity sensor is out
        of calibration.

        IF I take the wet bulb temp and air temp and calculate dew point from those values, then it is more realistic.

        hmm not much difference there. I get dew point of
        58.8 with that method. 🙂

        Logan dew point is 57

        Wind is SW there with temp of 73.

        Looks like sea breeze is at least temporarily gone. We shall see IF it comes back. 🙂

        1. We are 77 now with a 60 DP. NWS closest sensor to us is close enough in numbers for me to think that both are accurate.

    2. HA HA HA HA

      I “think” I might know where you mean. 🙂

      FWIW, it is 73 here after hitting 82 yesterday.

      We’ll see how high it goes and how much influence the sea breeze will have here.

  10. Some dew point temps are 60+ South Coast. 50s all official stations elsewhere. Will probably drop a bit during the day.

  11. Currently 75 here. My equipment is reporting dew point of 61 which I think is a few degrees too high. Temp sensor, however, is spot on and has been every since I moved it out of the sun. 🙂

      2. If I use temp and wet bulb and calculate i get dew point
        58.75 F

        Which is probably pretty darn close to what it is.

        Current Logan Dew point: 59

        So it looks like my wet bulb temp is MORE accurate than
        my Humidity sensor!

        Now I know to use wet bulb and do the calculation for
        a more accurate dew point reading. 🙂

    2. My closest Nws location has 77 with 59 dp. I’m 77 with 60 dp. I’m happy with that since I know that in this area you only have to drive a mile to see numbers change

        1. Lackey Rd Sutton which is closer to Sutton center and near blackstone national golf course has 79 with 60 dp

          Does anyone know how Nws places sensors? I’m thinking lackey rd one is at a residence

      1. Mother Nature doesn’t care about how we feel about what she naturally produces. 😉

    2. I’m kind of glad we don’t have the same weather all the time. We don’t have this all the time either. Make the most of it. 🙂

  15. Thanks TK
    This day in weather history goes back twelve years ago to the Springfield tornado. I remember watching the tornado on live television coming across the CT river heading for downtown Springfield. The tornado EF3 was on the ground for 38 miles.

  17. Thanks, TK!

    My seniors will need fur-lined graduation robes Saturday afternoon! 🙂

  18. As warm as its getting in southern New England, its already hot in northern New England as of noon.

    Makes sense, the warmest 850 mb temps are up there. Slowly advecting southward.

    Inland southern new england may see their high temps today closer to 4 pm, as our 850 mb temps rise from 14/15C to 15/16C.

  19. Full sun, warm/hot and light winds

    the top, thin layer of the ocean is warming fast today

    seeing around 63F at Harbor buoy and 67F in Cape Cod Bay northwest of Barnstable.

  21. Thanks TK! Looks like a bit of weather whiplash on the way there…

    Got back home from my storm chasing trip the other day. It was an amazing week. We were able to chase 7 consecutive days from last Monday to this past Sunday and found ourselves on severe thunderstorms each of those days. Was a rather unusual pattern in that it was more or less the same area being hit every day: Texas panhandle and eastern New Mexico (quite far south and west for storm chasing).

    I took hundreds of pictures, and while far from the only highlight, this was certainly a standout. From our final chase day on Sunday, which was really just supposed to be a travel day, we tracked down this tornado in the northern Texas panhandle south of the town of Stratford. Was not technically the first tornado I’ve seen, but the first with a full condensation funnel and the first one that “looked” like what most people think of as a tornado. We also found a 2 inch diameter hailstone with this storm – had to reposition shortly after to avoid losing any windows!

    https://ibb.co/gTGk5rH

    While the tornado makes for an obvious highlight, the storm structure we saw all week long, via a common storm mode of high-based supercells, was equally stunning. We saw a number of classic “mothership” type storms which were easily severe but with limited tornado potential due to high cloud bases and/or lack of 0-1km shear/SRH. This is one of many examples, but one of my favorite, taken from the top of a large mesa in eastern New Mexico, the day before we saw that tornado.

    https://ibb.co/vBZfqnv

    It was tough to come home, but will certainly be back out there in the future!

    1. What amazing photos, WxWatcher. Thank you for sharing them and for sharing highlights of what sounds like a very exciting time.

    1. The recon plane has arrived and is taking its first pass through this disturbed weather. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  23. 85 here while Logan is at 82 with SE wind.
    I suspect the ocean surface water has warmed some today.
    Let’s see,,,,,

    Indeed it has. Current Boston buoy (16 MN East of Boston) water temp is 62.24 F. It certainly has responded today. 🙂 🙂

  30. Unrelated story but not sure what is going with the bear population in CT. They are everywhere now, especially north and west of Hartford and expanding into some very populated areas. Also getting very brazen.

    This bear actually entered the Memorial Day parade in Avon and went bounding past the spectators:

    https://twitter.com/NBCConnecticut/status/1663606184417402887?s=20

    This one last week made it into Downtown Hartford and got stuck in a tree:

    https://www.wfsb.com/video/2023/05/26/raw-video-bear-climbs-tree-downtown-hartford/

    And just yesterday a bear actually broke into a home in Bloomfield while two people were inside and had to be euthanized.

    https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/local/bear-euthanized-after-breaking-into-home-in-bloomfield/3042002/?_osource=SocialFlowTwt_CTBrand

    There were 67 home break ins in CT in 2022 which was significantly more than any other year.

  33. Thanks WxW! I’ll be checking out those photos this evening. I’m at the end of one of the most chaotic days in my history – just getting to take a break now and enjoy the feel of summer and some music, and a strawberry poppyseed salad (soon) from Panera. A favorite!

    Welcome back Mark!

    Hi all! I still have to examine some late guidance but I don’t think I’m changing anything in my forecast at this point.

    I think NWS zone fcst is TOO AGGRESSIVE on the wet weather for Saturday. It’s worded for a wash-out basically, and I think it will rain less than 10% of the day (daylight hours) in most locations.

    I feel comfortable at this time with my short range, medium range, and long range outlooks.

    CPC Week 3-4 outlook is still too warm. They keep doing this. Forecast warm, then have to adjust to cool it.

    Model trends are drier for Saturday – no surprise. In fact, ironically I think the only bad 12z run is the ECMWF op. Too wet this weekend.

    1. This is not unusual for this time of year on the warmer days. High sun angle, late sunset. Also urbanized areas hold heat longer.

      I think the hottest 2 nights I remember were July 4 1990 and one night in July of 1995. Both of those nights it was still in the upper 80s at MIDNIGHT!

        1. Same here. It was hot in the sun today of course, but getting into the shade .. very nice, and a very nice evening in progress!

    1. According to my forecast above, no. This is not really that wet a pattern. And most of Sunday will be rain-free in most locations. Might be a bit of an exception for Cape and Islands, but we’ll see about that.

      1. Pete and Eric said the same about Sunday. I enjoy the cool temps and will take any rain we can get.

        1. Thanks! I haven’t seen them yet and may not get to until 11.

          It’s been an ultimately madhouse day here from start to finish .. hahaha! I’ll tell y’alls about it later. 🙂

          1. Sorry. Said last night. Or this morning. I clearly need to be more specific. Been waiting for a report from an important dr appointment for my brother and my mind has been going in 100 directions

  36. RRFS 18z simulated satellite shows clearing late Saturday across most of the region. Plenty of dry air working in.

    Not sure we’ll go completely clear but I do think we see at least some sun that day. HRRR is similar but actually clears it sooner, while 3km NAM only breaks the stratus but never clears it out.

  37. Back in Boston. While it’s warm it’s not oppressive. It’s certainly more humid than Holland (and much warmer), but I anticipated that. And I’ve felt much worse shocks to the system. In July 1983, for example. Good lord. I arrived in a furnace called Boston, and it stayed hot my entire stay that summer.

    The Atlantic Ocean is very large. Sure, one can cross it in 6 hours or so. But right now it feels like my daughter is very far away. I’m not suited for a transatlantic existence. I could easily live there, well, in the UK at least. But my son lives here.

    1. Welcome back! It’ll be feeling a bit more like northern Europe around here this weekend. 🙂

    2. Welcome home, Joshua. Glad your travels were safe. And I sure understand your tug between here and there ❤️

  38. WxWatcher some spectacular photos, thanks for sharing.
    Indeed I remember the F3 tornado that came through Sturbridge very well, like it was yesterday. I can’t believe it has been 12 years already. The scars on the landscape are disappearing with time, but for those whom lost their houses and property and for some family, the scars will last a lifetime.

    1. Such a heartfelt comment, SC. Thank you. I remember seeing the scars on the land a couple of years later; but as you wisely said, those scars run much deeper.

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