Wednesday PM Update

80 Comments

3:54PM

Full discussion later, but a few points:

Sun filtered to dimmed this afternoon by lots of high clouds fanning off a system to the southwest that won’t make it here.

Wet weather over the weekend and Monday may not turn out to be that much in eastern parts of southern New England.

Forecast update for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

THIS AFTERNOON: Limited sun – lots of high cloudiness. Temperature cooling into the 50s. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Patchy frost inland valleys. Low from near freezing in deep valleys to lower 40s coast. Wind calm.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. High 65-70. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 49. High 70.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 52. High 66.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 50. High 59.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 45. High 55.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Low 43. High 57.

80 thoughts on “Wednesday PM Update”

    2. Because I think the ridge to the east will be strong enough to push low pressure, and the heaviest precip axis to the west, and the position of the upper low at passage will not help either.

  4. Bashed my finger while moving rocks and now i rolled my ankle on rocks with a rock going onto it. and can barly walk on my right ankle.. with out it being extremely painful. at least it is in the 50s instead of the 80s

    1. We are the walking wounded. I bought a great new knife and my family took bets – they really did – on how long it would take for me to slice a finger. I’m famous for that. Took 3 days. Hope your ankle is better Matt 🙁

  5. not sure if anything is hitting the ground south of boston there is some light rain I am thinking some areas down there could get a few tenths of an inch or so. expecially on the cape and islands

    1. Every met including NWS calling for good rains except TK…I don’t know what he sees that others don’t but the storm is still 3+ days away so anything is still possible I guess.

      I do wish TK would at least go along with the crowd and raise those Friday temps closer to 80. 🙂

      1. Maybe he is being conservative because it’s is 3 days away or maybe he thinks phasing take place at the wrong time, after us or before us pulling to storm more north west.

  7. I just can’t buy into a major rainstorm either. Just look at the pattern since December. None of these bombs have panned out in eastern mass.

  8. Thanks tk 🙂 Well i respectably disagree, I think we are looking at a widespread 1-3 inches of rain from Sun-Mon night with around an inch in eastern sections to 3 inches western section ( Worcester westward), the bottom line anything will be helpful, but I’m all in on this moderate rain event, it also looks cool with temps in the 50’s, have a great night 🙂

    1. I have been attempting to read models and throw in some gut feeling and agree Charlie. Sorry if I jinx you 🙁

  9. 1 inch in the eastern mass what I expect! That is not a drought buster in my opinion. It will help for sure.

  10. 18z GFS disclaimer….warning, warning….it’s the 18z GFS run…warning, warning….

    With that said, a bit of a southerly jog to the southern system as it crosses the southern US with a later phasing and a further eastward track to the surface low. The heaviest precip on this run is just offshore.

    Trend or just the 18z run ?

  11. Tk said thinks at this point that it may not be much rain at all in eastern sections, so I suspect thats alot less than an inch, but as always I respect tk’s take, will c what happens 🙂

  12. Thanks TK….was hoping you would say that the timing had changed and the rain would arrive on Saturday. Oh well, I will be happy if we at least get some precipitation.

  14. Thanks TK.
    Thanks Coastal for posting that link. It was interesting read. It will be nice to get a good soaking and I hope the folks in the southeast could get one to without the severe weather.
    Anyone with travel plans to Florida on Saturday the storm prediction center is highlighting a good part of the sunshine state for the POTENTIAL for severe weather.

  15. Yes Coastal, thanks for the link. I am beginning to understand why TK isn’t on the 1-2″ bandwagon for now given all the different models. Hopefully this time tomorrow or Friday at the latest there will be agreement one way or the other.

    I also thought interesting that if this same storm were in January or February, it still would not have produced snow for coastal areas. Again…interesting.

  16. Thanks TK for your explanation above regarding the rain, but why won’t you go with 80 degrees for Friday?

    1. Not completely against the possibility but I’m keeping it lower because I think the gradient may be light southerly versus southwesterly.

  18. I feel rather confident that between 1.00-1.50 inches of rain will fall in the Boston to Providence areas, and up to 3 maybe 4 inches of rain just west of the Boston area. Worcester could be jackpot, any slight tweak east and will be in the heavier bands, goodnight all 🙂

  19. Barry Burbank this am — 2.5″ to 4″ on Sunday. On his map, it looked like Boston was inside this (red) zone though west of the city looked like a “sure thing.” I am not used to Barry getting this far ahead on larger precipitation amounts. Both he and TK are usually a little more conservative which I prefer.

    1. Guess we can ignore three straight runs (18z run from yesterday, plus 0z and 6z runs from today) of the GFS showing a miss from the southern system.

      Given the drought, it’s the first time the GFS will be correct 4 to 5 days out. 🙂

    2. I saw that longshot. It has 2.4 to 4 from the CC Canal to Albany. We could really use that rain!

    3. I am having a feeling this is one that may not go poof. Maybe it’s just very wishful thinking but whatever it is I do hope we get a significant amount.

    1. Thanks coastal. Am I reading correctly that we are in the .25-.5 range and there is a huge amount of precip just off the coast?

  21. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/…
    MODEL DISCUSSION AND PREFERENCES…
    MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THIS
    TIMEFRAME BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT…BUT THEN DIVERGE THIS
    WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS AS
    IT WORKS INTO THE EASTERN U.S. BY SATURDAY. MOST MODELS EVEN DEVELOP
    CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS THE SE U.S. INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
    WEEKEND. THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS START TO DIVERGE…WITH THE 00Z
    GFS OP RUN BECOMING AN OUTLIER. THE GFS IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED AS THE
    00Z GGEM…UKMET AND 12Z ECMWF…SO IT MOVES THE WEEKEND SURFACE LOW
    THAT WORKS UP THE COAST FURTHER E THAN THE OTHER MODELS WHICH
    ACTUALLY START TO NEGATIVELY TILT THE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK…
    SLOWING THINGS DOWN FURTHER. PREFER A BLEND OF THE EC AND GGEM FOR
    THIS PACKAGE BEYOND SUNDAY. IF THIS DOES COME TO FRUITION…LOOKS
    LIKE THE REGION WILL RECEIVE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MUCH NEEDED
    PRECIPITATION…POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS TRY TO SLOWLY MOVE THE
    UPPER CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT
    STILL LOOKS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WITH CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE.

  22. Barry Burbank Not etched in stone yet but potential is building for a windswept soaking drought-denting rain event Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. I hope this happens. Will you be upset if the Sox/Yankees Game Sunday evening is rained out?

        1. Sorry Coastal – I was kidding – but really – have they started the season??? I’m thinking they should go back to spring training and stay there until this time next year.

                1. Too many back then were – sad isn’t it. I wonder if it’s because they actually loved the game and not the dollar signs. Sorry – know this isn’t weather related 🙁

              1. I agree. I think we would be playing better if Tito was still here. I think Theo made some bad free agent signings that put us in the mess today. Bobby-V just doesn’t seem to fit in with me for some reason.

  23. Matt, are you done with your patio? I need to redo mine and add concrete retaining walls due to drainage issues. I’m a little skeptical to do it on my own because I have never attempted any thing like this before and because I am Extremely Lazy!

    2. we have gotten everything out of the area we have made a trench for drainage and are almost done making the rock wall. we are then going to flatten the earth and level it. with machines. We then will be putting the slate down with weed killers… and stoppers.We hope to be done before saturday night when the possible rain storm effects us.

    1. Dylan on her blog too – maybe more into Monday than Sun – but said one model wants to move it out and is showing only cape. With the history this past winter, even so much as a comment like that makes me nervous

    2. One could make that assumption. They usually follow the same train of thought when it comes to storms.

  26. And boom goes the dynamite!! Let the rains begin cause it’s coming maybe up to 3 inches in spots Mon 🙂

  27. Northeast Weather
    40 minutes ago

    ECMWF – The Latest runs of the GFS have gone farther west, as the GFS has been the easternmost outlier, as the ECMWF has gone farther east, as it has been the furthermost western outlier. Models are beginning to come to a consensus as to where this storm is going to track.
    At the moment, I am thinking that the heaviest of rain will fall in a stretch from Hartford, CT on up to New Brunswick, Canada. There is the potential that portions of the Adirondack mountains in Upstate New York, Northern VT, Northern NH, and portions of Western and Northern Maine experience some wet snow. The best chance for this is in Northwestern Maine.
    More details will be posted in the days ahead as it looks like this storm will hit from Sunday on into Wednesday of next week.

  28. Sorry, I don’t really do rain amounts 3 or more days in advance. All you need is one convective band to set up and dump 4-5 inches on Worcester while Boston gets 1/4 inch. We’ll see… =)

  29. The 12z Euro continues to show a bomb of a noreaster for Monday (980 mb low!)sitting off the NJ coast at 12z Monday. It has been consistent showing this storm phasing into a monster for several runs now. Heavy windswept rain for SNE and 12″+ of heavy, wet snow on the west side of the storm for interior PA into upstate NY if it verified!

    GFS isn’t as strong with the coastal low but is further west than previous runs putting the axis of heavy precip over southeast NE. Still dumps 1.25-2.25″ rain for most of us.

    Looks like the CMC splits the difference between the Euro and GFS.

    Either way you slice it, looks like a good, much needed soaking!

      1. well now that’s changed since this morning – of course it can change back just as quickly but I’ll keep hoping! Thanks Mark

  30. Fron NWS Upton:

    WHILE MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
    INDICATES NRN/SRN STREAM PHASING TO SOME DEGREE…THERE ARE
    DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF NRN STREAM AMPLIFICATION WHICH COULD
    AFFECT THE EVENTUAL LOW TRACK. ATTM WILL REJECT THE OPERATIONAL
    12Z GFS…WHOSE NRN STREAM ENERGY ARRIVES TOO LATE MAKING FOR A
    FLATTER NRN STREAM…AND WHICH APPEARS TO BE BREAKING DOWN WESTERN
    ATLANTIC RIDGING TOO QUICKLY…BOTH ALLOWING A WEAKER SFC LOW TO
    TRACK FARTHER OFFSHORE. SIDING WITH A MORE LIKELY 12Z ECMWF/GEFS
    MEAN EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM…WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED NRN STREAM
    THAT CAPTURES THE SFC LOW AND TAKES IT ON A TRACK JUST OFF THE MID
    ATLC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND ON MON.

    INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MON
    MORNING SHOULD BRING HEAVY RAIN DURING THAT TIME…ESPECIALLY FROM
    NYC EAST. HAVE MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL AMTS OF AT
    LEAST 1-2 INCHES…AND LOW-MED CONFIDENCE OF BANDS WITH LOCALLY
    HIGHER AMTS OF 3-4 INCHES. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE VERY DRY…SO
    ATTM EXPECT MAINLY URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING…WITH ONLY A
    SMALL CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING DEPENDING ON INSTANTANEOUS RAINFALL
    RATES. THIS RAIN WOULD HELP TO ALLEVIATE OUT MODERATE TO SEVERE
    DROUGHT CONDITIONS…

  31. Upon review of guidance, which is only guidance, I’m far from convinced on big rain amounts. Will be keeping wording conservative for now.

    2. TK, is the reasoning that you think phasing will not occur, or occur too far north/east? The GFS has been an outlier so far – but do you think it has a better handle on the situation?

      2. If the 2nd low gets going too late and hangs out to the south a little longer, phasing may not occur at the right time. If another scenario occurs in which case the low travels northward too quickly, phasing would occur too far north. For it to work out, phasing will have to take place during a short window of time and in a certain place (surface low east of Delmarva probably ideal).

      1. Not to the amount stage yet, but it wouldn’t surprise me that somewhere in eastern MA gets very little.

  32. I certainly don’t think we will be receiving big amounts either but what I do think we will receive is a general 1-2 inches, there will be banding which will be tough with isolated lower and higher amounts but I think in general well get around an inch plus,, this will be some help in the drought dept, have a great night everyone 🙂

  33. All i am going to say is that it has some of the same shaping as some of the storms durring the winter and they went to the south or north of us.
    northern low moves to the north and southern jet goes to the south gives us areas of showers(some really heivy) and storms with areas of up to 2 inches expect areas of drizzle and light rain as well. It will be a 3 to 4 day event. with the heivest falling monday morning commute. 😀

  34. Another alternative scenario we cannot forget about is the southern energy getting trapped under a low that cuts off sooner than forecast an just kind of sitting down there, while the northern feature moves east, slows offshore, but never really picks much up from the south because it’s all trapped. Don’t count this out either.

    I know all these scenarios make me sound wishy-washy, but I’m really just trying to be realistic in that there are enough possibilities that this is far from a certain forecast of significant rain. I prefer to wait and call it late.

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